Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2011 1:19:28 GMT -5
[shadow=red,left,300]Colorado Rockies (14-12) @ Carolina Warhounds (11-15)[/shadow]
COL: Aaron Cook (0-3, 5.08 ERA) CAR: Houston Summers (1-2, 2.64 ERA)
The Rockies are already up two games to none, and hope to deliver the coup de grace to the expansion Warhounds in the first 2015 May edition of PBL's Game of the Week!
Carolina opened up the series on Saturday to an early 3-0 lead before an ugly bullpen collapse that saw Colorado pile on 9 runs in the top of the 9th. The half-inning featured the Dexter Fowler, who tripled to lead off the inning (before scoring on a wild pitch), and then proceeded to tee off for a grand slam when the Rox batted around. Stunned, the Warhounds began to make some noise in the bottom of the 9th, leading off with two consecutive walks before they were erased on the next two pitches- a pop-up and a double play.
Sunday's game saw Colorado jump out to an early lead, when Troy Tulowitzki doubled home Seth Smith in the 3rd. Carolina answered back in the 4th and tied the game, the state it would remain in until the top of the 7th. The Warhounds opened the door for the Rockies, when Jonathan Lucroy fired the ball into the stands on a Zack Greinke sac bunt attempt with a runner on second base. Carolina would not recover, and the Rockies went on to tag another couple of runs on to finish the game at 4-1 and a 2-0 series lead.
Today's matchup will feature the struggling righty Aaron Cook for Colorado, and the junkballer Houston Summers for Carolina. Cook has suffered three straight losses, the most recent coming at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies. He was tagged for 4 runs, and did not make it out of the 4th. On the other side of the hill, Summers' most recent outing was a 6+ inning quality effort against the surprisingly hapless Atlanta Braves. The Warhounds won the game, but Summers was not rewarded for his efforts.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Colorado Rockies have seen sporadic production from their big money players. Former MVP Carlos Gonzalez looks to have regained some of that award winning form, but has yet to play his role in power production. Also of note, the speedster has been caught stealing 4 times out of 5 attempts so far, which might be a sign of his age (29!?!?!?!!!!) catching up to him. Troy Tulowitzki has been disappointing so far in 2015. His batting average sits just above the Mendoza line (.206), but despite that he is still getting on base (.336). Unfortunately, he has yet to get his wheels going, and has not attempted to swipe a bag in 2015. On the bright side, Seth Smith is swatting the ball like no one's business, and his triple slash (.320/.387/.600) extrapolates to what would be a career year. Chances are he won't keep that up, but right now he's hot.
The expansionist Warhounds have a full complement of underachievers too. Here are some early numbers from the franchise's first month-plus of existence: .213 team AVG, .324 team SLG, and 81 runs scored (all good for dead last in the National League). But that's not to say there haven't been any bright spots. Rule 5 draftee David Rze has been impressive in his limited appearances. The 22-year old second baseman from Waunakee, Wisconsin is a hometown hero (there affectionately known as the "Waunakee Warrior"), and has accumulated a .342/.375/.500 line over his first 38 ABs. Veteran Denard Span has also demonstrated why he's been in the league for so long, and why he might possibly deserve a promotion within the Warhounds' lineup, leading the team with 11 RBI. Third baseman, and face of the franchise, Evan Longoria has been the most consistent Carolina batsman, and leads all starters with his .796 OPS.
Two very different teams, on two very different paths. Watch Carolina attempt to avoid a Rocky Mountain sweep in this week's PBL Game of the Week!
Questions for the GMs:
For Erick Blasco, given the debacle that was (and still is) the Jon Garland contract, CarGo's unexpected fall from MVP levels and Tulo's slow start, what is your current stance on long-term deals? With CarGo's contract running out in 2016, how likely are we to see a him resigned?
While Aaron Cook has lost his last three games, only two of the three were real shellackings. Would 0-4 be enough of a red flag to start looking elsewhere for your rotation? Do you have depth concerns when it comes to starting pitching?
Michael McKenry has been mediocre at best to start the season. With the expected return of Octavio Garcia tonight, how much will he help your offense? Will he be enough to put you back in the NL West's driver seat?
For Ed Richardson, starting pitching has been the key to your early, limited success here in Carolina. What changes are you planning to make to ensure that the offense has a bigger positive impact on the outcome of the game? With a few star free agents still out there, and a weak draft class, are they a possibility for upgrades?
The fans are clamoring to see more of the "Waunakee Warrior." Given your history in Oakland, you tend to be very patient with your youngsters. So far, Rze's handling points to much of the same. Will Rze see more playtime if the offense continues to struggle? Or will you stay the course and play it safe?
Jed Lowrie is batting an astonishing .050 on the season. Sure its only through 40 ABs, but at the moment he is a black hole in your lineup. Baseball America states that AAA reliever Roy Cantrell is next on the depth chart at SS, so there's no help in sight. What's the organizational plan at the position?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2011 1:22:15 GMT -5
If this doesn't get discussion going... I don't know what will.
Fire away PBL!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2011 2:00:16 GMT -5
What can I say, in the PBL, once you hit 28, you're an old man....though I seriously hate the precipitous drop in skills these guys suffer at relatively spry ages.
given the debacle that was (and still is) the Jon Garland contract, CarGo's unexpected fall from MVP levels and Tulo's slow start, what is your current stance on long-term deals? With CarGo's contract running out in 2016, how likely are we to see a him resigned?
Hey, Garland is reinventing himself as a big time middle reliever. At least that's what I'll tell GM's while trying to peddle him at the trade deadline.
I'm not averse to long-term deals at all. Tulo's track record suggests that this is simply a one month aberration, while CarGo continues to have streaky stretches where his OPS explodes.
We were very fortunate when we originally signed Gonzalez. He was platooning at the time with Brad Hawpe and we were therefore able to sign him on the cheap. Understandably, Gonzalez would want to cash in now that he's approaching the end of this current contract for a more lucrative deal deserving of his talents.
We've entered into preliminary talks with Carlos to test the waters, but his asking price right now is close to $20 million for many, many years. We'll have some flexibility down the road where that contract may be manageable, but with a slightly eroding skillset, and a bad history of right hand injuries, it's not in Colorado's interests to sign him to that extension.
If his price comes down, Gonzalez, like Tulowitzki, will still have value as a slightly inferior player due to the fact that he'll be able to play a normally offense-starved position competently---in this case Center Field. Considering the dearth of center fielders who can provide an offensive threat, Gonzalez would still have a bunch of value.
If we can't resign him, we picked up Jorge Tellez in the Rule V draft and will attempt to groom him into a starting right fielder. The rest of our minor league outfield is pretty barren since our Zach Greinke trade though, but at least we have an out in Tellez,
We're also committed to making a run at a World Series crown this year into next, so if we do trade Gonzalez, it will likely be at the deadline next season if we're out of it. If not, we'd rather make a run at a title and let him walk as a free agent then sabotage our season with a mid-season trade.
While Aaron Cook has lost his last three games, only two of the three were real shellackings. Would 0-4 be enough of a red flag to start looking elsewhere for your rotation? Do you have depth concerns when it comes to starting pitching?
Cook will be fine. He had a horrid April last season too, and posted an ERA over five in April, May, and June, before turning it on during the summer and finishing with a more than respectable 4.23 ERA. He faces some very bad offenses over the next month and will probably see his ERA drop. If he continues to struggle, we have more fifth starters than you can imagine who can step in and take his place.
With Grienke, Good, and Carson we like the top of our rotation, and we've moved Jeffrey Franchise into the starting unit with Barry Zito no longer able to find the strike zone. If worse comes to worse, we can put Zito back in, try Anthony Ranaudo as a starter, and even see if Jon Garland has learned any new tricks. If something happens to Greinke, Good, or Carson though, we'd obviously feel much less optimistic about our staff.
Michael McKenry has been mediocre at best to start the season. With the expected return of Octavio Garcia tonight, how much will he help your offense? Will he be enough to put you back in the NL West's driver seat?
We had no contingency to Garcia going down and we liked McKenry's defense and contract enough to keep him as a backup. Nick Valdez' bat has done some nice things for us so we DFA'd McKenry, though we obviously hope he'll clear waivers and come back to us if we need a defensive presence again.
That said, Garcia is a far more potent player. He'll put the ball in play, which is important since we usually have so many base runners with our walk rates. We feel that's his best aspect. We'll bat him seventh to start, but we may put him up to sixth if he makes better contact than he did last year.
We know that Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Stewart will strike out a ton, so for those situations where there are runners on third and less than two outs, we want a guy who can get base hits if Stewart swings and misses. Right now Stewart has been locked in, but James Loney has been a disappointment, and if Garcia can get his feet wet and play well, we could make that lineup adjustment. The main problem is that our idiot manager loves to double-switch out the number six hitter and we don't want to see Garcia double switched out late in games, but if Loney can't deliver, we may make that switch.
Thanks, as always, for getting this done Kenny. Good write up and questions. Ed's been missing out on getting slaughtered by Colorado for years in the American League, it's good to show him what Rockies baseball is all about!
|
|
|
Post by yankeesgm on Sept 2, 2011 3:19:02 GMT -5
This age drop-off has always affected the PBL and coupled with the high wages they demand as soon as they hit the drop-off has often been the difference between top teams and the rest. The top teams offload the 28-30's gaining good prospects from the unwary and continuing their dominance while the have-nots get stuck plucking the over 30's off the waiver wire and shipping out their farm for that 29 year-old that looks good based on career figures and lo and behold hits .204 the next year. It will be interesting to see if the expansion teams can avoid slipping into this accepted pattern.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2011 10:39:30 GMT -5
This age drop-off has always affected the PBL and coupled with the high wages they demand as soon as they hit the drop-off has often been the difference between top teams and the rest. The top teams offload the 28-30's gaining good prospects from the unwary and continuing their dominance while the have-nots get stuck plucking the over 30's off the waiver wire and shipping out their farm for that 29 year-old that looks good based on career figures and lo and behold hits .204 the next year. It will be interesting to see if the expansion teams can avoid slipping into this accepted pattern. I've always thought this too - and have built and rebuilt my M's rosters around players in their mid-late 20s (we're getting a little older now)... and sold off players as soonas they get to 30. However, in terms of wins - which two teams have been in the most successful in the PBL? In the AL it's the Red Sox, who have always had one of the oldest rosters in the league, in the NL it's the Rockies, who again (until recently) have had an older roster (esp. pitching).... So although I agree with you on the best strategy, older players can win things too.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2011 11:48:07 GMT -5
The Warhounds are thrilled to be a part of the GOTW series. We're particularly pleased to be hosting an edition in our brilliant new ballpark with one of the PBL's most successful franchises as our guest. The write-up above was spot on as to our strengths and weaknesses. We appreciate the opportunity to answer your questions.
For Ed Richardson, starting pitching has been the key to your early, limited success here in Carolina. What changes are you planning to make to ensure that the offense has a bigger positive impact on the outcome of the game? With a few star free agents still out there, and a weak draft class, are they a possibility for upgrades?
Right now we have gaping holes at first base and at short stop. The problem is that we have few internal options for improvement and the remaining free agents are less than desirable. We have explored the market for upgrades, but haven't found a deal we're comfortable with so far.
As to first base, the two kids we have sharing time there are capable young baseball players. Bancroft and Velazquez have both had success in AAA and Velazquez has been solid in his prior big league appearances with Toronto. Our hope is that one or both will break out in May and remove first base as an area of concern for us.
The only immediate change to the roster we're making is we are sending Ryde Rodriguez (.190/.217/.310) down to AAA to see if he can get things figured out. We have recalled Donnie Webb and placed him as the starting right fielder for the time being. He was absolutely crushing AAA pitching and was his league's hitter of the month in April. He put up a line of .312/.382/.740 in 77 ABs, hitting 10 bombs and driving in 25. Hopefully he'll stay hot now that we are bringing him to Raleigh.
As to our lineup, we're going to find more ways to get David Rze involved in games. He'll be starting a couple of games at SS this week, including tonight's game against the Rockies.
We may venture into the remaining free agents. However, we're more likely to explore bullpen options than bats as the available hitters would have difficulty fitting into our defensive lineups. If we upgrade any bats, we'll probably do it in the trade market.
The fans are clamoring to see more of the "Waunakee Warrior." Given your history in Oakland, you tend to be very patient with your youngsters. So far, Rze's handling points to much of the same. Will Rze see more playtime if the offense continues to struggle? Or will you stay the course and play it safe?
Up to now we have been handling Rze conservatively, using him as our chief utility infielder. When we pursued him in the Rule V draft, it was as a long-term investment. However, since we are required to keep him on the big league roster for the entire season, we didn't want to jeopardize his chances for long term success by throwing him to the lions too quickly. But given the way he is performing while seeing increased playing time, and given how our short stops are struggling at the plate, the fans are going to get to see a great deal more of Rze. We are going to monitor him closely however and should it appear that the pressure of increased playing time is getting to be too tough, we will pull back on his playing time. As I said, we see him as a piece of the Warhounds future, so pressuring him in a rebuilding (or in our case, just a plain "building") year isn't a viable option for us.
Jed Lowrie is batting an astonishing .050 on the season. Sure its only through 40 ABs, but at the moment he is a black hole in your lineup. Baseball America states that AAA reliever Roy Cantrell is next on the depth chart at SS, so there's no help in sight. What's the organizational plan at the position?
The beginning of Jed's 2011 has been nightmarishly bad. Nobody knows that better than Jed. He's going to be sitting more as a result. In the expansion draft, we took Jed with an eye towards making him our utility infielder as he's a plus defender at second, third, and short. He was also insurance in case Jurickson Profar didn't mature as hoped. When we picked up Rze in the Rule V draft, we decided that Jed was going to get a shot at increased playing time at short, since the plan was to get Rze on the field at least once per week in a utility role. For whatever reason, that has not worked well.
Thus far both Profar and Lowrie have been a wreck. On the bright side, neither player is as bad as they're playing right now, so both should eventually pick up production well enough to return to career norms. For that reason, don't expect us to make a move to bring in a veteran short stop. We've had our ears to the ground looking for available short stops that will be under team control for 4 or more years. Should the right player become available in future free agent classes, we could also look there to fill our long-term needs. For us, short is a defense-first position. If we can find a short stop that can get on base a third of the time and play stellar defense, we'll be thrilled with that. Profar could still be that player, but he's going to have to pick it up and, for the time being, we're going to give him every opportunity to do that.
|
|
|
Post by Derek _ Red Sox on Sept 2, 2011 20:11:39 GMT -5
I haven't had this problem yet with major dropoffs, but if its a league wide issue can we not adjust the talent Batters and Pitchers ageing/developing speed which is currently set to .800/.1000 and talent change randomness which is 100
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2011 12:35:16 GMT -5
I haven't had this problem yet with major dropoffs, but if its a league wide issue can we not adjust the talent Batters and Pitchers ageing/developing speed which is currently set to .800/.1000 and talent change randomness which is 100 I think the talent change radomness should be at least 50
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2011 13:11:25 GMT -5
Most of what has been talked about is the talent change randomness I believe. Personally I like all the changes, it keeps things interesting when players all of sudden become very good or start going downhill. I know that some heavy OOTP users think it should be set to 75 to get "realistic" results, but I don't know what that means exactly.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2011 14:38:53 GMT -5
I don't get it.
Its not like large contracts come back to haunt teams in real life either... (its part of the game). Some real life precedents for you:
1. Alfonso Soriano (32) 2. Vernon Wells (28) 3. Carl Pavano (29) 4. Barry Zito (28) 5. Andruw Jones (30) 6. Mike Hampton (28) 7. Carlos Lee (34) 8. Dontrelle Willis (26) 9. Carlos Silva (29) 10. Eric Chavez (29)
In parenthesis, I've listed the age of their statistical decline. On the list, only Silva and Chavez were not All-Stars, so these were some talented players in their time.
The fact of the matter is, baseball is a game of inches (much as it is a game of cliches). Losing a few MPH on your fastball, or losing a few tenths of a second on your batspeed have DRASTIC effects on your ability to play the game exceptionally well. That's why players like Derek Jeter or Randy Johnson are the exception not the rule.
I think that the league needs to accept the fact that legacy contracts are exactly that. I give huge props to Erick for sticking with the dinosaurs that he does, and really wish more of the league would do the same. Not to call out any of you, but it does bother me that some teams wheel and deal and end up with a new roster every single season (Red Sox, Mariners, Rays I'm looking at you). ;D
It's a perfectly fine way to play the game, but from a realism standpoint (well, mostly from a fan loyalty standpoint) I prefer Erick's method of sticking with the team's vets. There's good reason why Todd Helton is such a controversial figure in the league.
|
|
|
Post by Derek _ Red Sox on Sept 3, 2011 21:56:25 GMT -5
Kenny, I agree that you should appreciate Erick's method of building a team, as he has completely slipped in the NL West and you might actually pass him in the standings this season. It has to be a good goal to want to pass the best team in your division for a while, I know I always wanted to get ahead of Tampa.... ;D
BUT being one of the best teams in the LEAGUE not just a Division, I don't aspire to be like the Rockies who had a good run but now has fallen into the middle of the pack. I play to win, I don't play to create player longevity. That is not my objective, as I only have one and that is to keep putting World Series rings on my fingers ;D
I subscribe to the theory if you want to keep winning games, you need to always be willing to move pieces to become stronger or you become the Rockies - complacent, and accepting their fates. I make it known to my players that no position is safe, and you better perform or you could be shipped to another team if anyone even wants you...
NOW HERE IT IS, WAIT FOR IT.......
Being from the city of champions - BOSTON - we rather have championships than just a bunch of players who been with us a long time. This is why we are always winning. We don't settle for less and nobody is untouchable or irreplaceable.
|
|
|
Post by Derek _ Red Sox on Sept 3, 2011 21:59:37 GMT -5
This thread has officially been hijacked, lol.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2011 22:35:34 GMT -5
I can't wait for Erick to see this... lol.
And this is the point of the GotW thread- to start meaningful baseball debate!
As for your comment, that's fine if that's how you want to do it. The "Madden*" style of general managing just doesn't do any favors toward league visibilty. In fact, I can't even really name one Boston Red Sox starter who isn't Justin Verlander... Part of that is because I'm not in your division, and the other part of it is there's just been too many moves!
It may not win championships to have a "face of the franchise" but it still certainly adds to the league. A few of the more notable FotFs:
Tampa - Marvin Webb Colorado - Todd Helton** SF - Tim Lincecum Seattle - King Felix
Whatever you wanna say about 'em, they still add to the league's history, and I KNOW that's one of your long-term league goals, Derek.
*I say "Madden" because one viable strategy in the game is to make small deals for slighty better over and over. Its the "One Red Paperclip" trade progression that lets you turn Alex Smith into Peyton Manning. You'll win games, but it takes more skill to do it the hard way.
**Extinct
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2011 2:02:22 GMT -5
Kenny, I agree that you should appreciate Erick's method of building a team, as he has completely slipped in the NL West and you might actually pass him in the standings this season. It has to be a good goal to want to pass the best team in your division for a while, I know I always wanted to get ahead of Tampa.... ;D BUT being one of the best teams in the LEAGUE not just a Division, I don't aspire to be like the Rockies who had a good run but now has fallen into the middle of the pack. I play to win, I don't play to create player longevity. That is not my objective, as I only have one and that is to keep putting World Series rings on my fingers ;D I subscribe to the theory if you want to keep winning games, you need to always be willing to move pieces to become stronger or you become the Rockies - complacent, and accepting their fates. I make it known to my players that no position is safe, and you better perform or you could be shipped to another team if anyone even wants you... NOW HERE IT IS, WAIT FOR IT.......
Being from the city of champions - BOSTON - we rather have championships than just a bunch of players who been with us a long time. This is why we are always winning. We don't settle for less and nobody is untouchable or irreplaceable. lol, I'm complacent? I've suffered a lost season due to injuries, traded my farm to get an ace, and if we went by pythag record to filter out luck (plus a poor bullpen and bad clutch hitting), I'd be 2 games out of a playoff spot, and I'm complacent? Also remember how I had to sell off a frontline starter due to the Great Budget Adjustment. Eliminating how fluky the postseason is (the 2011 Mets, no offense to Rich, were the worst team in the playoffs that year), the regular season gives a far-greater sample size to measure the quality of a team, and I've been tops in the NL three times in five years. My current offensive players have all produced in the recent past---what am I going to do, trade Troy Tulowitzki for another shortstop? How many are there? This is the team that's brought me success, and the minute someone points out that the underperforming players have become too old to be productive and should be shipped out, Ian Stewart answers by leading the NL in RBI's. It would be nice to have Ubaldo Jimenez, but salary restrictions forced me to cut bait. It would be nice to have Derrick Lowe, but he retired. It would be nice to simply buy an ace, but a bad contract I gave out to Jon Garland has eaten into my resources. It would be nice to go over budget by $9 million dollars like you did last season, but I'd rather work within the confines of the system. As for the other point, sure you can treat the players like used meat since there are no external costs to trading away a Kevin Youkilis. Traded icons don't bring your franchise lost value if they're swapped for icons from another team. Still, you've built a successful model. It's been a blast for me seeing the Rockies grow into the monster it has been and the players have been a big part of giving Colorado a personality. The minute I look at OOTP strictly as a test to see who can manipulate numbers and algorithms the best, I'd probably put the game away and start studying to be an accountant. Now Kenny, Aaron Cook shut down the Warhounds 4-0. Ask some damn questions
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2011 2:03:39 GMT -5
The obvious comeback is that Derek can't name any Padres starters either---and you've had the same guys for years!
|
|