Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Apr 15, 2024 12:52:48 GMT -5
We're 43 games into the season, and a fair number of teams are deviating from what might have been expected of them. So the question is: is what we're seeing Real, or Not? (I was going to call this article "The Carmen Electra Question" but my HR attorney warned me off of it with very strong language.)
New York Yankees: Last year, the Yankees nearly made the playoffs at 89 wins, and were pegged by some experts to lead the AL East. This has not happened - the Yanks are below 500 (21-22) and 4th in the AL East. Their various stats aren't too crazy, and their WAR is 12th in the PBL (and 3rd in the division). Verdict: Real. Or rather . . . the Yankees look worse than they are. They've actually played like a slightly above average team, but have slightly underperformed in their record, and are in a division with a lot of teams that are playing well. So "The Yankees are the 4th best team in the AL East" is false, but the Yankees aren't playing that badly - it's more about their division than anything.
Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays were tabbed by this guy to be competitive in the division, and they're currently tied for 2nd, with a 23-20 record. How legit is this? Well, they're 11th in WAR, barely ahead of the Yankees and about 1 WAR behind Baltimore. So that augurs pretty well for their performance being tolerably accurate. The one thing I will say is that their bats have posted a 321 BABIP (5th in the league) compared with a league average of 297. BABIP is a skill stat, but one that's very noisy, and Toronto posting very high in this may be fluky. That said, they posted 319 last year, and 304 the year before, so while I'd bet they're overperforming by a little bit, it's probably not by as much as you'd think (their park is pro-hitter, and a 304 BABIP would be normal there). Verdict: Real. They're like the inverse of the Yankees in this regard. They're probably overperforming a bit, but them being an average or slightly better team looks reasonably true for the year.
Colorado Rockies: Last year the Rockies won 100+ games, got a bye, and were clearly one of the top teams in the AL. This year they're tied for last in their division at 19-24. Perhaps a small fall-off when transitioning GMs could be expected, but certainly not like this. So that leads to the question, is this real? Colorado's WAR is 19th in the league, which is clearly disappointing (though still 2nd in the division, 2.5 WAR behind the Angels). They're underperforming their WAR, largely because of their sky-high 343 BABIP allowed. Yeah Coors is a hitters park, but normally at the 308-309 level, not in the 340s. So . . . Verdict? Both. Colorado will not sustain allowing a BABIP that high - they're almost certainly no worse than the 2nd best team in the division. But WAR doesn't count pitcher BABIP, and their WAR has been . . . lackluster. They're probably underperforming beyond that, but they'll need to win 60% of their remaining games just to hit 90 wins and have a shot at the playoffs. They're better than this . . . but last year's juggernaut definitely appears to be past.
Seattle Mariners: Don't look now, but the perennially hopeful Mariners are #2 in the AL West (21-22), and current playoff odds has them comfortably north of 10%. But is this legitimate? Their WAR is way better than last year (hooray) but is only 22nd in the league, and more consistent with a 19-24 team. But the real smoking gun here is their hitter BABIP. Seattle plays in a crazy pitchers park, and right now they're maintaining a 333 BABIP, an astounding 52 points better than their defense is allowing. There's no universe where this is predictive - that's more than two standard deviations from the mean. Verdict: Not Real. Their BABIP gap is likely unsustainable, and even with that gap they're only showing as the 22nd best team in the PBL. I mean, Gambler's Fallacy says that the improbably, having happened, is no less likely to continue happening. And their record is solid, so anything's possible. But I'd bet strongly against a "Seattle as an average team" proposition.
New York Yankees: Last year, the Yankees nearly made the playoffs at 89 wins, and were pegged by some experts to lead the AL East. This has not happened - the Yanks are below 500 (21-22) and 4th in the AL East. Their various stats aren't too crazy, and their WAR is 12th in the PBL (and 3rd in the division). Verdict: Real. Or rather . . . the Yankees look worse than they are. They've actually played like a slightly above average team, but have slightly underperformed in their record, and are in a division with a lot of teams that are playing well. So "The Yankees are the 4th best team in the AL East" is false, but the Yankees aren't playing that badly - it's more about their division than anything.
Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays were tabbed by this guy to be competitive in the division, and they're currently tied for 2nd, with a 23-20 record. How legit is this? Well, they're 11th in WAR, barely ahead of the Yankees and about 1 WAR behind Baltimore. So that augurs pretty well for their performance being tolerably accurate. The one thing I will say is that their bats have posted a 321 BABIP (5th in the league) compared with a league average of 297. BABIP is a skill stat, but one that's very noisy, and Toronto posting very high in this may be fluky. That said, they posted 319 last year, and 304 the year before, so while I'd bet they're overperforming by a little bit, it's probably not by as much as you'd think (their park is pro-hitter, and a 304 BABIP would be normal there). Verdict: Real. They're like the inverse of the Yankees in this regard. They're probably overperforming a bit, but them being an average or slightly better team looks reasonably true for the year.
Colorado Rockies: Last year the Rockies won 100+ games, got a bye, and were clearly one of the top teams in the AL. This year they're tied for last in their division at 19-24. Perhaps a small fall-off when transitioning GMs could be expected, but certainly not like this. So that leads to the question, is this real? Colorado's WAR is 19th in the league, which is clearly disappointing (though still 2nd in the division, 2.5 WAR behind the Angels). They're underperforming their WAR, largely because of their sky-high 343 BABIP allowed. Yeah Coors is a hitters park, but normally at the 308-309 level, not in the 340s. So . . . Verdict? Both. Colorado will not sustain allowing a BABIP that high - they're almost certainly no worse than the 2nd best team in the division. But WAR doesn't count pitcher BABIP, and their WAR has been . . . lackluster. They're probably underperforming beyond that, but they'll need to win 60% of their remaining games just to hit 90 wins and have a shot at the playoffs. They're better than this . . . but last year's juggernaut definitely appears to be past.
Seattle Mariners: Don't look now, but the perennially hopeful Mariners are #2 in the AL West (21-22), and current playoff odds has them comfortably north of 10%. But is this legitimate? Their WAR is way better than last year (hooray) but is only 22nd in the league, and more consistent with a 19-24 team. But the real smoking gun here is their hitter BABIP. Seattle plays in a crazy pitchers park, and right now they're maintaining a 333 BABIP, an astounding 52 points better than their defense is allowing. There's no universe where this is predictive - that's more than two standard deviations from the mean. Verdict: Not Real. Their BABIP gap is likely unsustainable, and even with that gap they're only showing as the 22nd best team in the PBL. I mean, Gambler's Fallacy says that the improbably, having happened, is no less likely to continue happening. And their record is solid, so anything's possible. But I'd bet strongly against a "Seattle as an average team" proposition.