2071 AL East - One of these Teams Just Doesn't Belong Here
Mar 28, 2024 19:55:07 GMT -5
andrewtoronto likes this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Mar 28, 2024 19:55:07 GMT -5
Last Season:
Baltimore Orioles: 91 wins
New York Yankees: -1
Toronto Blue Jays: -15
Boston Red Sox: -23
New York Yankees: 43 WAR
Baltimore Orioles: -2
Boston Red Sox: -12
Toronto Blue Jays: -17
How did the luck fall?
Batting: Toronto had the 3rd highest BABIP, almost certainly luck, while Baltimore had the 3rd lowest in the PBL, likewise.
Pitching: The Yankees allowed the 5th lowest HR/FB, probably some skill and some luck. Toronto, in contrast, allowed the 6th highest HR/FB, which is probably mostly bad luck.
Overall conclusion: Baltimore and the Yankees were the top of the division, with Boston and Toronto somewhere in the 15-20 win range behind them. Baltimore was probably slightly better than the Yankees last year.
2071 Preview:
Much to my surprise, my sheet thinks that this division will be pretty competitive. It doesn’t have more than a 6-7 win gap between the best and worst teams in the division. I’m skeptical . . . but take it for whatever it’s worth.
2071 New York Yankees: The Yankees have a solid all-around team. Their bats aren’t dominant, but they have a nice squad of good hitters (Jose Guillen, Guillermo Rodriguez, Anthony Thomas and youngster Pat Lepage leap to mind) and a deep roster overall. But their rotation is really, really, really good. Ron White leads a very deep set of starters - the Yankees are built to be able to absorb injuries. Overall, they’re not great, but they’re a solid team top to bottom, and their rotation makes them a tough playoff matchup if they can get in.
2071 Baltimore Orioles: The book on Baltimore is similar to that of last season. Monster front-end starters (with solid pitching throughout), but bolstered by solid bats. They were able to re-sign veteran catcher Curt Powell and they boast a pretty respectable lineup. Again, strong team, particularly in the playoffs.
2071 Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox are a not terribly remarkable team . . . except for Jose Garcia. Garcia finished 3rd in the PBL last year with 7.6 WAR, despite not even making 500 PA. Seriously, read that again. Garcia was 3rd in the entire PBL in batter WAR, but had so few PA that he technically isn’t a qualifying batter. He’s probably the best player in this division, and him plus an okay roster make the Sox surprisingly solid. Granted, after Robby Dix and Paul Martin (and Tracy Bryant when his glove shows up), the team is pretty thin. But with Garcia, they have a shot.
2071 Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays’ bats are weak. There’s really not a kind way of saying it. The Gonzalezes (Jesus at second and Mike in left) are young (25) and good, but if they’re your most valuable hitters, you have a bad lineup. That said, my sheet loves Toronto’s pitching. Loooooooooooooooooves it. Tyrone Bryant is a 23 year-old stud, a 9/10/6 monster who may be breaking into the majors this year. Matt Conl is excellent, and Lou Markakis is fantastic. And their bullpen is good and deep. Do I believe that Toronto is actually within 7 wins of the Yankees? No, not really. But Toronto is young as hell, Bryant is the kind of rookie that can tip the balance, and Toronto has a lot to offer. I think my sheet overrates them . . . but I think they’re likely to be better than last year.
Next 5 Years:
Budgets:
Yankees: $290M, Astronomical, 100 Fan Interest
Baltimore: $210M, Huge, 87 Fan Interest
Boston: $174M, Astronomical, 72 Fan Interest
Toronto: $98M, Small, 62 Fan Interest
It’s impossible to overstate. There are only three Astronomical markets in the PBL; two of them are in the AL East. There are only six markets at Huge or above. Half of them are in the AL East.
Budgets in OOTP were once compared to difficulty level. Playing as a $300M budget team is a lower difficulty level than playing as a $150M team.
Playing as Toronto is probably the highest difficulty in the PBL. There is no team that is at a greater financial disadvantage relative to their division.
Farm Systems: Players of the Future
I’d put Boston’s 4th. Their batting prospects are extremely thin relative to the rest of the division. They’ve got a solid assortment of pitching prospects, but not enough to make up for the lack of bats.
New York’s I put 3rd, a good bit ahead of Boston. They have pretty much zero pitching prospects but have a ton of upside in their bats moving forward.
Baltimore, I’m giving the #2 spot to. Their overall bats are comparable to the Yankees, but they have a greater number of them in the minors and not in International. Between Brent Lambright, Bill Bond, Felix Medina and Chris Brewer, they have a lot to look forward to in the next half-decade.
Toronto has the #1 system according to the OSA, and I ain’t gonna argue. Led by mega-stud Leonardo Diaz, Toronto’s young bats don’t have quite the high-end flash of either Baltimore or New York’s but they’re very, very deep.
Prognosis:
Boston is the easy team to bet against here. Their major quality comes from a 34 year-old, and their farm system is weaker than the rest of the division. Their financial advantage over Toronto has serious value, but they’re at a disadvantage against both Baltimore and New York.
Toronto . . . They look surprisingly decent this year in the majors, and they have an excellent farm system. They’re looking about as good as a team with an 8-digit budget can. How much is it going to help against teams that are fielding 2-4 times their payroll? Some, for sure. So much is going to come down to luck. If Toronto can catch fire, have a few strong years, see their prospects develop, they may rise to the $150M - $180M range, and from there Toronto could hold their own with good management. Of course, they could just as easily come up short several years in a row, get no financial breaks and be forced to rebuild again.
The Yankees are hard to bet against. They have the biggest budget in the league, they’re deep, they may be the best team in the division, and they have a surprisingly decent pool of batting prospects. I cautiously don’t have them as the team to beat for 5 years from now because their studs are too far out, but with their budget, it may not matter.
The Orioles are my cautious choice for the team of the future in the AL East. Really nice prospects, stud starters that are younger than 30, great (if not Yankees-level) budget room . . . I don’t think they have a big advantage, but it may be enough to hold the Yankees off.
Personally, I'll be rooting for Toronto, but we'll see.
Baltimore Orioles: 91 wins
New York Yankees: -1
Toronto Blue Jays: -15
Boston Red Sox: -23
New York Yankees: 43 WAR
Baltimore Orioles: -2
Boston Red Sox: -12
Toronto Blue Jays: -17
How did the luck fall?
Batting: Toronto had the 3rd highest BABIP, almost certainly luck, while Baltimore had the 3rd lowest in the PBL, likewise.
Pitching: The Yankees allowed the 5th lowest HR/FB, probably some skill and some luck. Toronto, in contrast, allowed the 6th highest HR/FB, which is probably mostly bad luck.
Overall conclusion: Baltimore and the Yankees were the top of the division, with Boston and Toronto somewhere in the 15-20 win range behind them. Baltimore was probably slightly better than the Yankees last year.
2071 Preview:
Much to my surprise, my sheet thinks that this division will be pretty competitive. It doesn’t have more than a 6-7 win gap between the best and worst teams in the division. I’m skeptical . . . but take it for whatever it’s worth.
2071 New York Yankees: The Yankees have a solid all-around team. Their bats aren’t dominant, but they have a nice squad of good hitters (Jose Guillen, Guillermo Rodriguez, Anthony Thomas and youngster Pat Lepage leap to mind) and a deep roster overall. But their rotation is really, really, really good. Ron White leads a very deep set of starters - the Yankees are built to be able to absorb injuries. Overall, they’re not great, but they’re a solid team top to bottom, and their rotation makes them a tough playoff matchup if they can get in.
2071 Baltimore Orioles: The book on Baltimore is similar to that of last season. Monster front-end starters (with solid pitching throughout), but bolstered by solid bats. They were able to re-sign veteran catcher Curt Powell and they boast a pretty respectable lineup. Again, strong team, particularly in the playoffs.
2071 Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox are a not terribly remarkable team . . . except for Jose Garcia. Garcia finished 3rd in the PBL last year with 7.6 WAR, despite not even making 500 PA. Seriously, read that again. Garcia was 3rd in the entire PBL in batter WAR, but had so few PA that he technically isn’t a qualifying batter. He’s probably the best player in this division, and him plus an okay roster make the Sox surprisingly solid. Granted, after Robby Dix and Paul Martin (and Tracy Bryant when his glove shows up), the team is pretty thin. But with Garcia, they have a shot.
2071 Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays’ bats are weak. There’s really not a kind way of saying it. The Gonzalezes (Jesus at second and Mike in left) are young (25) and good, but if they’re your most valuable hitters, you have a bad lineup. That said, my sheet loves Toronto’s pitching. Loooooooooooooooooves it. Tyrone Bryant is a 23 year-old stud, a 9/10/6 monster who may be breaking into the majors this year. Matt Conl is excellent, and Lou Markakis is fantastic. And their bullpen is good and deep. Do I believe that Toronto is actually within 7 wins of the Yankees? No, not really. But Toronto is young as hell, Bryant is the kind of rookie that can tip the balance, and Toronto has a lot to offer. I think my sheet overrates them . . . but I think they’re likely to be better than last year.
Next 5 Years:
Budgets:
Yankees: $290M, Astronomical, 100 Fan Interest
Baltimore: $210M, Huge, 87 Fan Interest
Boston: $174M, Astronomical, 72 Fan Interest
Toronto: $98M, Small, 62 Fan Interest
It’s impossible to overstate. There are only three Astronomical markets in the PBL; two of them are in the AL East. There are only six markets at Huge or above. Half of them are in the AL East.
Budgets in OOTP were once compared to difficulty level. Playing as a $300M budget team is a lower difficulty level than playing as a $150M team.
Playing as Toronto is probably the highest difficulty in the PBL. There is no team that is at a greater financial disadvantage relative to their division.
Farm Systems: Players of the Future
I’d put Boston’s 4th. Their batting prospects are extremely thin relative to the rest of the division. They’ve got a solid assortment of pitching prospects, but not enough to make up for the lack of bats.
New York’s I put 3rd, a good bit ahead of Boston. They have pretty much zero pitching prospects but have a ton of upside in their bats moving forward.
Baltimore, I’m giving the #2 spot to. Their overall bats are comparable to the Yankees, but they have a greater number of them in the minors and not in International. Between Brent Lambright, Bill Bond, Felix Medina and Chris Brewer, they have a lot to look forward to in the next half-decade.
Toronto has the #1 system according to the OSA, and I ain’t gonna argue. Led by mega-stud Leonardo Diaz, Toronto’s young bats don’t have quite the high-end flash of either Baltimore or New York’s but they’re very, very deep.
Prognosis:
Boston is the easy team to bet against here. Their major quality comes from a 34 year-old, and their farm system is weaker than the rest of the division. Their financial advantage over Toronto has serious value, but they’re at a disadvantage against both Baltimore and New York.
Toronto . . . They look surprisingly decent this year in the majors, and they have an excellent farm system. They’re looking about as good as a team with an 8-digit budget can. How much is it going to help against teams that are fielding 2-4 times their payroll? Some, for sure. So much is going to come down to luck. If Toronto can catch fire, have a few strong years, see their prospects develop, they may rise to the $150M - $180M range, and from there Toronto could hold their own with good management. Of course, they could just as easily come up short several years in a row, get no financial breaks and be forced to rebuild again.
The Yankees are hard to bet against. They have the biggest budget in the league, they’re deep, they may be the best team in the division, and they have a surprisingly decent pool of batting prospects. I cautiously don’t have them as the team to beat for 5 years from now because their studs are too far out, but with their budget, it may not matter.
The Orioles are my cautious choice for the team of the future in the AL East. Really nice prospects, stud starters that are younger than 30, great (if not Yankees-level) budget room . . . I don’t think they have a big advantage, but it may be enough to hold the Yankees off.
Personally, I'll be rooting for Toronto, but we'll see.