Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Mar 26, 2024 10:19:32 GMT -5
The Angels are in a curious position. The Mariners are in a consistent rebuild, and the Athletics are rebuilding hard. Which leaves only the Rockies to tangle with in the division. While the Rockies won the division by a million games, longtime GM Ben Spiro has taken his talents to South Beach, err, the glory of New York, err, the Mets. And while new GM Justin Buzzota looks ready to start the next chapter in the Rockies’ legacy, whenever a longtime successful GM departs, there is an almost inevitable regression for a time.
Which means that the Angels may have a decently open window in a few years.
How Were the Angels Last Year, Really?
They won 82 games. By WAR they were the 16th ranked team in the PBL, right around the middle. They finished 20 WAR behind the Rockies, but 26 WAR ahead of Seattle (and 28 ahead of Oakland). As far as the wild card, they finished 5 WAR behind the second wild card team, but also behind by both Kansas City and Houston (by about 4-5 WAR).
Are there any statistical outliers for them?
Their batter BABIP was the 4th lowest in the league at 282. Their ballpark is a pitchers park (for average) but that should only lead to an expected BABIP around 295. In general, 3 points of batter BABIP is worth about 1 win (to be more accurate, one point of BABIP is worth about 3.2 runs, and 10 runs is about a win). So you could make the argument that the Angels’ bats underperformed by 4-5 wins. If you look at the Angels’ track record in BABIP, it tends to be lower than expected - you have to go back to 2066 to find a year where they put up a BABIP at or above that 295 mark.
In contrast, the Angels’ pitchers allowed home runs on 11.9% of flyballs (given their park, you’d expect about 13.5%). And every percent of HR/FB is worth almost 3 wins (29 runs). So if their batters underperformed by 4-5 wins, their pitchers overperformed by almost the same amount.
All told, at a quick check, I don’t see evidence that the Angels were secretly better or worse than their record last year. They’re definitely the second best team in their division, but were the 5th best non-division winner last year, meaning that their road to the Wild Card is not an easy one. Teams of this type generally have about a 10-20% chance of landing a playoff spot (in the above league configuration).
They lost 4 WAR from Wayne Dorsett leaving, which won’t help them much (though the offseason is still going, so there’s time for them to patch that hole). At this moment, the Angels are leveraged pretty heavily, with only $35M between their payroll and budget, even with shedding Dorsett. The Angels’ payroll isn’t too low for its division ($22M below Oakland, $20M below Colorado, but $48M ahead of Seattle) - they don’t have a ton of room to add talent right now, but their finances shouldn’t mess with their ability to rise assuming they can develop cheap young players. But the major thing to remember is that their payroll is almost 30% spent on veteran superstar Kenzaburo Sato, whose $41.2M salary comes off the books next season.
All told, from a salary point of view, the Angels aren’t well setup to make a push this year . . . but two years from now they’ll have more maneuvering room financially, and the Rockies will have had a year to regress (in theory).
How are the Angels’ prospects looking?
Well, historically, the Angels haven’t done great in the draft. Since 2055, the Angels have drafted the 2nd lowest amount of WAR in the PBL. Their current farm system is ranked 18th in the PBL - not bad but not great (though the OSA ratings only mean so much).
Here are the Angels 10 Top Prospects (according to OSA):
#1: Sean Walters, Batter, Age 19 (R), 7/8/9 potential future DH
#2: Kevin Schell, Batter, Age 20 (R), 7/7/10 potential with 9 outfield range
#3: Todd Lopez, SP, Age 23 (ML), 6/9/6 presently, 8/9/6 potential
#4: Antonio Mendoza, SP, Age 23 (ML), 7/6/6 presently, 7/6/8 potential
#5: Phil Inman, Batter, Age 22 (A), 6/6/6 potential, 9 outfield range, 7 infield range
#6: Enrico Ferreira, Batter, Age 16, (INT), 8/8/7 potential, 7 infield and outfield range
#7: James Clifton, Batter, Age 21, (R), 6/9/6 potential, future DH
#8: Robert Johnson, SP, Age 22, (A-), 7/7/6 potential
#9: Jerry Hatch, SP, Age 24, (ML), 6/6/5 presently, 7/6/6 potential
#10: Carl Hart, Batter, Age 24 (ML), 5/4/4 presently, 7/6/4 potential, 7 infield and outfield range
I’m not saying this is a bad set of prospects. Kevin Schell will be a monster if he develops, and both Sean Walters and Todd Lopez will be quite good (again, if they develop fully). There’s a decent assortment to work with here. But there isn’t a ton of talent ready to hit the ML right now - Todd Lopez is about it. There are other players, but Antonio Mendoza isn’t particularly good yet, neither Carl Hart nor Jerry Hatch are likely to make a big impact right away.
Prognosis:
Overall? The Angels look to be another average team again this year. And it’s not that they can’t luck into a playoff spot with that - I’d cautiously peg their chances around 10%. But I see no reason to expect them to make a big leap this year, nor next year. Could they hit on several of their high upside picks, get lucky with wins, make the playoffs, and push into contention in the next 3-5 years? Yes, that could happen. This is a team with definite potential. But I hesitate to tab them as the future team to beat in the AL West. They feel at a crossroads to me. They’re good enough that they could make a push into the playoffs, and if they develop well and hit in free agency, they could well shift into trying to compete. But it’s just as reasonable for them to lose Sato next year after a 75 win season (with Colorado still strong), for them to double down on rebuilding and put all their chips in for competing in 5-10 years.
We shall see - the Angels don’t really have a choice but to try (at least a little) this year, and how that effort goes will determine a lot.
Which means that the Angels may have a decently open window in a few years.
How Were the Angels Last Year, Really?
They won 82 games. By WAR they were the 16th ranked team in the PBL, right around the middle. They finished 20 WAR behind the Rockies, but 26 WAR ahead of Seattle (and 28 ahead of Oakland). As far as the wild card, they finished 5 WAR behind the second wild card team, but also behind by both Kansas City and Houston (by about 4-5 WAR).
Are there any statistical outliers for them?
Their batter BABIP was the 4th lowest in the league at 282. Their ballpark is a pitchers park (for average) but that should only lead to an expected BABIP around 295. In general, 3 points of batter BABIP is worth about 1 win (to be more accurate, one point of BABIP is worth about 3.2 runs, and 10 runs is about a win). So you could make the argument that the Angels’ bats underperformed by 4-5 wins. If you look at the Angels’ track record in BABIP, it tends to be lower than expected - you have to go back to 2066 to find a year where they put up a BABIP at or above that 295 mark.
In contrast, the Angels’ pitchers allowed home runs on 11.9% of flyballs (given their park, you’d expect about 13.5%). And every percent of HR/FB is worth almost 3 wins (29 runs). So if their batters underperformed by 4-5 wins, their pitchers overperformed by almost the same amount.
All told, at a quick check, I don’t see evidence that the Angels were secretly better or worse than their record last year. They’re definitely the second best team in their division, but were the 5th best non-division winner last year, meaning that their road to the Wild Card is not an easy one. Teams of this type generally have about a 10-20% chance of landing a playoff spot (in the above league configuration).
They lost 4 WAR from Wayne Dorsett leaving, which won’t help them much (though the offseason is still going, so there’s time for them to patch that hole). At this moment, the Angels are leveraged pretty heavily, with only $35M between their payroll and budget, even with shedding Dorsett. The Angels’ payroll isn’t too low for its division ($22M below Oakland, $20M below Colorado, but $48M ahead of Seattle) - they don’t have a ton of room to add talent right now, but their finances shouldn’t mess with their ability to rise assuming they can develop cheap young players. But the major thing to remember is that their payroll is almost 30% spent on veteran superstar Kenzaburo Sato, whose $41.2M salary comes off the books next season.
All told, from a salary point of view, the Angels aren’t well setup to make a push this year . . . but two years from now they’ll have more maneuvering room financially, and the Rockies will have had a year to regress (in theory).
How are the Angels’ prospects looking?
Well, historically, the Angels haven’t done great in the draft. Since 2055, the Angels have drafted the 2nd lowest amount of WAR in the PBL. Their current farm system is ranked 18th in the PBL - not bad but not great (though the OSA ratings only mean so much).
Here are the Angels 10 Top Prospects (according to OSA):
#1: Sean Walters, Batter, Age 19 (R), 7/8/9 potential future DH
#2: Kevin Schell, Batter, Age 20 (R), 7/7/10 potential with 9 outfield range
#3: Todd Lopez, SP, Age 23 (ML), 6/9/6 presently, 8/9/6 potential
#4: Antonio Mendoza, SP, Age 23 (ML), 7/6/6 presently, 7/6/8 potential
#5: Phil Inman, Batter, Age 22 (A), 6/6/6 potential, 9 outfield range, 7 infield range
#6: Enrico Ferreira, Batter, Age 16, (INT), 8/8/7 potential, 7 infield and outfield range
#7: James Clifton, Batter, Age 21, (R), 6/9/6 potential, future DH
#8: Robert Johnson, SP, Age 22, (A-), 7/7/6 potential
#9: Jerry Hatch, SP, Age 24, (ML), 6/6/5 presently, 7/6/6 potential
#10: Carl Hart, Batter, Age 24 (ML), 5/4/4 presently, 7/6/4 potential, 7 infield and outfield range
I’m not saying this is a bad set of prospects. Kevin Schell will be a monster if he develops, and both Sean Walters and Todd Lopez will be quite good (again, if they develop fully). There’s a decent assortment to work with here. But there isn’t a ton of talent ready to hit the ML right now - Todd Lopez is about it. There are other players, but Antonio Mendoza isn’t particularly good yet, neither Carl Hart nor Jerry Hatch are likely to make a big impact right away.
Prognosis:
Overall? The Angels look to be another average team again this year. And it’s not that they can’t luck into a playoff spot with that - I’d cautiously peg their chances around 10%. But I see no reason to expect them to make a big leap this year, nor next year. Could they hit on several of their high upside picks, get lucky with wins, make the playoffs, and push into contention in the next 3-5 years? Yes, that could happen. This is a team with definite potential. But I hesitate to tab them as the future team to beat in the AL West. They feel at a crossroads to me. They’re good enough that they could make a push into the playoffs, and if they develop well and hit in free agency, they could well shift into trying to compete. But it’s just as reasonable for them to lose Sato next year after a 75 win season (with Colorado still strong), for them to double down on rebuilding and put all their chips in for competing in 5-10 years.
We shall see - the Angels don’t really have a choice but to try (at least a little) this year, and how that effort goes will determine a lot.