Snake Eyes - The Dice and the 2060s White Sox
Mar 20, 2024 20:08:07 GMT -5
Texas Rangers, craigWhiteSox, and 2 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Mar 20, 2024 20:08:07 GMT -5
I often prefer to start these articles with an historical context. But in doing so I came across a rather curious story, one that I will now relay to you.
So sit back. Pour a glass of bordeaux. Grab some of those oreos from the freezer. (Bordeaux and Oreos are a thing people do, right? If not, I’m calling it. I’m putting a combo pack in every major liquor store, under the name “Bordoreos”. This is your chance to get in on the ground floor.)
From 2049 to 2056, the White Sox had a string of playoff seasons (and around the league, their roster had the nickname “death by a thousand shortstops”). In that eight year span they won 100+ games five times, never finished below a pythag of 92 wins, and won back to back championships in 2052 and 2053 (the last AL team to win back to back, the next closest is Boston in 2032 and 2033).
But Father Time is undefeated. They had a down season in ‘57 (84 wins), then an up season in ‘58 (94 wins) where they missed the playoffs due to an extraordinarily wacky AL playoff picture (the Wild Card teams were Houston and Colorado at 102 and 95 wins, and the division winners won 106, 99, 98 and . . . 71 wins that year. It was messed up). They stuck around 500 for the next three years. In 2062 they won 88 games, but with a 90-win pythag (again finishing one win out of the playoffs, but having a better record than two (count ‘em, two) division winners).
Then in 2063 they put it all together, winning 97 games (one less than Detroit), posting the 4th highest pythag in the AL and the 4th highest WAR in the AL. They knocked out Boston in the Wild Card, but fell short against Houston in the ALDS. A disappointing ending, but there was excellent reason to be optimistic. And their notoriously tight-fisted owner gave them an extra $16M to their budget going into 2064.
Every reason to be optimistic.
Naturally, of course, everything went horribly wrong.
Here are their major metrics from 2063 to 2064:
Wins: 97 -> 81
Pythag: 95 -> 75
WAR: 44.5 -> 27.7
wOBA: .325 (10th in the league) -> .301 (28th in the league)
FIP: 4.07 (8th in the league) -> 4.30 (22nd in the league)
That’s a drop of somewhere between 15 and 20 wins from year to year, and it’s not like they had injuries. Sifaks Ben Hassi, Augustin Colon, Ty Save and Jesse Vega all played at least 120 games in 2064. They just combined for 7.2 WAR instead of the 17.8 WAR the year before.
And if you dive into the numbers, the whole thing gets even weirder. Almost every major RNG-driven component in team performance was high in 2063, and went to rock bottom in 2064.
Consider their pitching. Look at these metrics:
xFIP: 0.04 better than league average -> 0.12 better than league average
Wait a minute, does xFIP actually think their pitching was better in 2064? Check this out:
K%: 0.1% below league average -> 0.1% better than league average
BB%: 0.79% better than league average -> 0.15% better than league average
HR/FB%: 1.3% better than league average -> 1.4% worse than league average
The percentage of flyballs that turn into home runs is mostly random (it’s maybe 20% movement, but mostly random). From 2063 Chicago went from one of the best home run preventing teams in the league to one of the worst . . . and almost certainly both were luck (of different kinds).
Let’s look at batting. The White Sox in 2063 had the highest batting average in the league. Here are their other stats:
K%: 2.3% better than league average -> 3.3% better than league average
BABIP: 0.026 better than league average -> 0.002 worse than league average
AVG: 26 points better than league average -> 2 points better than league average
Runs: 76 runs better than league average -> 67 runs worse than league average
Here’s the thing you need to understand. Those White Sox teams hit for average. And that’s it. In 2063, the year they won 97 games, their BB% was the 5th lowest in the league, and ISO was 4th lowest. So when the BABIP fell out from under their bats, they went from being a good offense to a bad offense really, really, really quick.
So. The White Sox had a serious setback in 2064. And their delightful owner takes $22M out of their budget.
So Craig has a tough choice. He’s only a season away from 97 wins. And if his owner is going to gank him $22M for one 81 win year, what’s going to happen if this happens multiple times?
So Craig doubles down, bumping payroll by $20M even as the budget is dropping, hoping to restore that luster.
How did it go in 2065?
Batter BABIP: 6 points below league average
HR/FB%: 2.3% worse than league average
In other words, the RNG screwed the White Sox in 2065 over even more than it had in 2064.
The White Sox won 66 games, their owner cut their budget (wait for it) 40 million dollars . . .
And that was that. A full-on rebuild triggered which continues to this day.
And as much as I would love to delve into how that rebuild is going (pretty decently from what I can tell), I think I’ve already done enough.
Was the 97 win season a bit of a mirage? Were they really more of a low 90s, high 80s team that year? Maybe.
But 2064 and 2065 were absolute hose-ings of the highest order. It’s not unfair - the RNG is part of the game.
But it’s hard. It’s hard to see a combination of a controlling owner and really, really, really bad luck cost a strong team $62M in budget room in only two years.
And that’s the sad truth of it. A lot of this game is skill. A lot of the time, when a team wins, it’s because their GM is good. A lot of the time, when a team loses, it’s because their GM isn’t. But another lot of the time, it’s not signal, it’s just noise.
And yesterday’s noise is today’s history.
So now we look at Chicago in a 5-year rebuild.
And if a butterfly had farted over Jakarta, Chicago might be part of a 3-way dogfight in the AL North even now, working with a limiting but viable $190Mish payroll.
But that’s not where we are.
I look forward to seeing the White Sox back in the thick of things. Which will happen sooner or later.
So sit back. Pour a glass of bordeaux. Grab some of those oreos from the freezer. (Bordeaux and Oreos are a thing people do, right? If not, I’m calling it. I’m putting a combo pack in every major liquor store, under the name “Bordoreos”. This is your chance to get in on the ground floor.)
From 2049 to 2056, the White Sox had a string of playoff seasons (and around the league, their roster had the nickname “death by a thousand shortstops”). In that eight year span they won 100+ games five times, never finished below a pythag of 92 wins, and won back to back championships in 2052 and 2053 (the last AL team to win back to back, the next closest is Boston in 2032 and 2033).
But Father Time is undefeated. They had a down season in ‘57 (84 wins), then an up season in ‘58 (94 wins) where they missed the playoffs due to an extraordinarily wacky AL playoff picture (the Wild Card teams were Houston and Colorado at 102 and 95 wins, and the division winners won 106, 99, 98 and . . . 71 wins that year. It was messed up). They stuck around 500 for the next three years. In 2062 they won 88 games, but with a 90-win pythag (again finishing one win out of the playoffs, but having a better record than two (count ‘em, two) division winners).
Then in 2063 they put it all together, winning 97 games (one less than Detroit), posting the 4th highest pythag in the AL and the 4th highest WAR in the AL. They knocked out Boston in the Wild Card, but fell short against Houston in the ALDS. A disappointing ending, but there was excellent reason to be optimistic. And their notoriously tight-fisted owner gave them an extra $16M to their budget going into 2064.
Every reason to be optimistic.
Naturally, of course, everything went horribly wrong.
Here are their major metrics from 2063 to 2064:
Wins: 97 -> 81
Pythag: 95 -> 75
WAR: 44.5 -> 27.7
wOBA: .325 (10th in the league) -> .301 (28th in the league)
FIP: 4.07 (8th in the league) -> 4.30 (22nd in the league)
That’s a drop of somewhere between 15 and 20 wins from year to year, and it’s not like they had injuries. Sifaks Ben Hassi, Augustin Colon, Ty Save and Jesse Vega all played at least 120 games in 2064. They just combined for 7.2 WAR instead of the 17.8 WAR the year before.
And if you dive into the numbers, the whole thing gets even weirder. Almost every major RNG-driven component in team performance was high in 2063, and went to rock bottom in 2064.
Consider their pitching. Look at these metrics:
xFIP: 0.04 better than league average -> 0.12 better than league average
Wait a minute, does xFIP actually think their pitching was better in 2064? Check this out:
K%: 0.1% below league average -> 0.1% better than league average
BB%: 0.79% better than league average -> 0.15% better than league average
HR/FB%: 1.3% better than league average -> 1.4% worse than league average
The percentage of flyballs that turn into home runs is mostly random (it’s maybe 20% movement, but mostly random). From 2063 Chicago went from one of the best home run preventing teams in the league to one of the worst . . . and almost certainly both were luck (of different kinds).
Let’s look at batting. The White Sox in 2063 had the highest batting average in the league. Here are their other stats:
K%: 2.3% better than league average -> 3.3% better than league average
BABIP: 0.026 better than league average -> 0.002 worse than league average
AVG: 26 points better than league average -> 2 points better than league average
Runs: 76 runs better than league average -> 67 runs worse than league average
Here’s the thing you need to understand. Those White Sox teams hit for average. And that’s it. In 2063, the year they won 97 games, their BB% was the 5th lowest in the league, and ISO was 4th lowest. So when the BABIP fell out from under their bats, they went from being a good offense to a bad offense really, really, really quick.
So. The White Sox had a serious setback in 2064. And their delightful owner takes $22M out of their budget.
So Craig has a tough choice. He’s only a season away from 97 wins. And if his owner is going to gank him $22M for one 81 win year, what’s going to happen if this happens multiple times?
So Craig doubles down, bumping payroll by $20M even as the budget is dropping, hoping to restore that luster.
How did it go in 2065?
Batter BABIP: 6 points below league average
HR/FB%: 2.3% worse than league average
In other words, the RNG screwed the White Sox in 2065 over even more than it had in 2064.
The White Sox won 66 games, their owner cut their budget (wait for it) 40 million dollars . . .
And that was that. A full-on rebuild triggered which continues to this day.
And as much as I would love to delve into how that rebuild is going (pretty decently from what I can tell), I think I’ve already done enough.
Was the 97 win season a bit of a mirage? Were they really more of a low 90s, high 80s team that year? Maybe.
But 2064 and 2065 were absolute hose-ings of the highest order. It’s not unfair - the RNG is part of the game.
But it’s hard. It’s hard to see a combination of a controlling owner and really, really, really bad luck cost a strong team $62M in budget room in only two years.
And that’s the sad truth of it. A lot of this game is skill. A lot of the time, when a team wins, it’s because their GM is good. A lot of the time, when a team loses, it’s because their GM isn’t. But another lot of the time, it’s not signal, it’s just noise.
And yesterday’s noise is today’s history.
So now we look at Chicago in a 5-year rebuild.
And if a butterfly had farted over Jakarta, Chicago might be part of a 3-way dogfight in the AL North even now, working with a limiting but viable $190Mish payroll.
But that’s not where we are.
I look forward to seeing the White Sox back in the thick of things. Which will happen sooner or later.