Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Mar 10, 2024 11:04:05 GMT -5
Context:
The Colorado Rockies have a rich and storied history. In the 50s they went through a 13 year stretch where they made the playoffs every single year and won a championship. Starting in 2061 they went through a 7 year playoff drought, with three years in the low 80s giving way to a full rebuild for the subsequent four. But since 2068 they've made the playoffs each of the last three years, never finishing below 89 wins.
In 2061, at the culmination of their run, they had a $250M budget, tied for the largest in the league. Their rebuild hurt on that front - they're now 13th in budget in the league, only $11M above league average. But they're one of the six largest markets in the league, so there's ample reason to think that they'll be moving up in that direction if they can put together more winning seasons.
In 2061, at the culmination of their run, they had a $250M budget, tied for the largest in the league. Their rebuild hurt on that front - they're now 13th in budget in the league, only $11M above league average. But they're one of the six largest markets in the league, so there's ample reason to think that they'll be moving up in that direction if they can put together more winning seasons.
Results of the 2070 Season:
While the Rockies have made the playoffs each of the last three years, they haven't made it out of the Divisional Round in that time. Last year they had the highest WAR in the AL and (after league adjustments) were competitive with Cincinnati and Washington. It didn't turn into a great deal of success, but there's reason to be optimistic.
Financial Picture / Leveraging:
The Rockies were heavily leveraged last season with a $34M gap between their budget and payroll, lower than most of the league. With the understanding that the offseason is just getting rolling, Colorado currently looks like they'll only have a $20M gap for this season - Guillermo Hernandez is getting into a well-deserved $25M a year deal, and Patrick Hammond is getting into the pricey parts of arbitration. So take it for whatever it's worth, but the Rockies are playing pretty aggressively for the present, in the hopes that their budget increase will keep pace with their payroll. In light of their market size, it's not an unreasonable plan.
Building through the Draft:
From 2055 to 2067 the Rockies have been 11th in WAR gained through the draft. If we shorten that to the seven years they were rebuilding, the Rockies were 6th in that time period. But in that time they rarely drafted high - they only had one top ten pick, five in the teens and one in the late 20s. They haven't been crushing the draft, but getting high-end value out of only decent draft position has definitely helped.
How they're looking going into 2071:
Colorado has the advantage of two rebuilding teams in their division - Oakland and Seattle won 61 and 59 games last year. So Colorado has but to beat the Angels to make the playoffs. Last year they beat the Angels by 23 wins, 188 runs and 21 WAR. Last year they had a budget $16M higher, and this year that gap is $20M. So this is a long way of saying that there is every reason to bet on Colorado to win their division again.
Will Colorado have a drop-off? Maybe. They're losing Dave Baker along with a few other starters, but none of their biggest players.
Will Colorado have a drop-off? Maybe. They're losing Dave Baker along with a few other starters, but none of their biggest players.
So yeah. Colorado should win their division again, make the playoffs again, and both of those will help their bottom line. As far as any kind of serious run? Having Guillermo Hernandez healthy would surely help, but that's in the hands of the baseball gods. Expect the Rockies to challenge for another bye, along with Detroit, Minnesota and Texas.