Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Feb 27, 2024 8:35:16 GMT -5
Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers
Let's talk about it.
Offense (Advantage Washington, 0.37 Runs per Game):
Pitching (Advantage Detroit, 0.13 Runs per Game):
Fielding (Even):
Base Running (Advantage Washington, 0.03 Runs per Game):
Total: Advantage Washington, +0.27 Runs per Game, 54% chance of winning the series
Top 6 SPs in the Series (even):
1) Dan Gallaghe, Was (2.33), pitched 4 days ago
2) Loren Simpson, Det (3.28), pitched 4 days ago
3) Jesus Zagal, Det (3.53), rested
4) Anastasio Reyes, Det (3.81), rested
5) Jorge Trespalacios, Was (3.89), pitched 2 days ago
6) Frederik Lambert, Det (3.95), pitched 2 days ago
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage Detroit):
Context: You know those World Series that pit two plucky up-and-coming teams against each other, each one hoping to make their mark on history and define the legacy of their franchise moving forward?
This is not that series.
Detroit has won the AL in 5 of the last 12 years, has made the playoffs in every single one of those 12 years, and has never had a record below 90 wins in that stretch.
Washington in contrast, has won the NL 3 of the last 5 years, won a championship (in 2067 against Detroit), has made the playoffs in every one of the last 16 seasons and has only had two seasons below 90 wins in those 16.
So these are two perennial contenders, though Detroit has been 0 for 4 in their World Series appearances (and again, their most recent run ended in getting Washington their first championship since 2048).
Is this the year where Detroit wins their first championship since 1984, or the one where Washington repeats their success of 2067?
Let's talk about it.
For clarification, the "runs per game" advantage is adjusted for league environment.
Offense (Advantage Washington, 0.37 Runs per Game):
Detroit: 4th in the league, +1.13 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Washington: 1st in the league, +2.38 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pitching (Advantage Detroit, 0.13 Runs per Game):
Detroit: 8th in the league, +0.95 SDs
Washington: 7th in the league, +1.14 SDs
Fielding (Even):
Detroit: 19th in the league, -0.27 SDs
Washington: 18th in the league, -0.26 SDs
Base Running (Advantage Washington, 0.03 Runs per Game):
Detroit: 28th in the league, -0.95 SDs
Washington: 15th in the league, -0.15 SDs
Total: Advantage Washington, +0.27 Runs per Game, 54% chance of winning the series
Top 6 SPs in the Series (even):
1) Dan Gallaghe, Was (2.33), pitched 4 days ago
2) Loren Simpson, Det (3.28), pitched 4 days ago
3) Jesus Zagal, Det (3.53), rested
4) Anastasio Reyes, Det (3.81), rested
5) Jorge Trespalacios, Was (3.89), pitched 2 days ago
6) Frederik Lambert, Det (3.95), pitched 2 days ago
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage Detroit):
Detroit (bin Ra'id, Aleman, Olvera): 3.15 AxFIP
Washington (Smith, Paige, Lopez): 3.85 AxFIP
Prognosis: Washington has the better lineup. It's not that Detroit's is bad - it's great. It's just that Washington's is the best in the PBL by a lot, even after league adjustments. In the rotation, it's interesting, because Washington has the advantage in #1 starters, and Detroit has the advantage everywhere else. Which may sound insurmountable, but once you take into account how freaking good Gallaghe is, it gets really close. Here are the expected matchups, adjusted with lineup strength and home field advantage, but ignoring bullpen (for now).
Game 1: Summers @ Zagal (+1.38 runs for Detroit, 63%)
Game 2: Gallaghe @ Lopez (+2.08 runs for Washington, 69%)
Game 3: Simpson @ Trespalacios (+0.22 runs for Washington, 52%)
Game 4: Lambert @ Summers (+0.10 runs for Detroit, 51%)
Game 5: Zagal @ Gallaghe (+2.03 runs for Washington, 69%)
Game 6: Trespalacios @ Lopez (+0.09 runs for Washington, 51%)
Game 7: Summers @ Simpson (+1.63 runs for Detroit, 65%)
With the understanding that those matchups are hypothetical, but there are some basic conclusions:
1) If Gallaghe is pitching, Washington has a huge edge (wherever the game is)
2) If Trespalacios is pitching, it's probably a coin flip
3) If anyone else is pitching for Washington, Detroit has a strong edge (but not as big as Washington has when Gallaghe pitches)
Based purely on lineup, baserunning and rotation, Washington has a small edge. Not huge, but it's there.
But when we take into account bullpen, Detroit has a considerable edge. Detroit's bullpen is comparable to Pittsburgh's, and that was a big edge for the Pirates in that series.
Overall? I think it's even. Washington has a small edge from its home field (and Gallaghe) happening earlier in the series, but Detroit's bullpen edge cancels out a lot. I'm not calling it either way, but I will be personally rooting for Detroit. They've had enough success that I'd like them to get that Championship.
Overall? I think it's even. Washington has a small edge from its home field (and Gallaghe) happening earlier in the series, but Detroit's bullpen edge cancels out a lot. I'm not calling it either way, but I will be personally rooting for Detroit. They've had enough success that I'd like them to get that Championship.