Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington NationalsOffense (Advantage Washington, 1.07 Runs per Game):
Washington: 1st in the league, +2.38 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pittsburgh: 9th in the league, +0.40 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pitching (Advantage Washington, 0.33 Runs per Game):
Washington: 7th in the league, +1.14 SDs
Pittsburgh: 15th in the league, +0.09 SDs
Fielding (Advantage Washington, 0.05 Runs per Game):
Washington: 18th in the league, -0.26 SDs
Pittsburgh: 24th in the league, -0.60 SDs
Base Running (Advantage Pittsburgh, 0.03 Runs per Game):
Washington: 15th in the league, -0.15 SDs
Pittsburgh: 10th in the league, +0.67 SDs
Total: Advantage Washington, +1.42 Runs per Game, 78% chance of winning the series
Top 6 SPs in the Series (advantage Washington):
1) Dan Gallaghe, Was (2.14), rested
2) Jorge Trespalacios, Was (3.73), rested
3) Gerardo Pineiro, Pit (3.96), rested
4) Steve Morris, Pit (4.04), rested
5) Billy Kemper, Was (4.06), rested
6) Charlie Linttell, Was (4.19), rested
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage Pittsburgh):
Washington (Smith, Paige, Lopez): 3.75 AxFIP
Pittsburgh (Williams, Pomeroy, Chavez): 3.20 AxFIP
Prognosis: Pittsburgh has a really good bullpen. Like, really good. If they can keep the games close going into the late innings, they have a chance. But Washington has the wildly better lineup and Dan Gallaghe. I think the 78% chance for Washington that the baseline gave is pretty reasonable.