Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Feb 25, 2024 10:19:43 GMT -5
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Offense (Advantage Detroit, 0.03 Runs per Game):
Detroit: 4th in the league, +1.13 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Minnesota: 5th in the league, +1.07 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pitching (Advantage Detroit, 0.03 Runs per Game):
Detroit: 8th in the league, +0.94 SDs
Minnesota: 9th in the league, +0.85 SDs
Fielding (Advantage Minnesota, 0.30 Runs per Game):
Detroit: 19th in the league, -0.27 SDs
Minnesota: 2nd in the league, +1.75 SDs
Base Running (Advantage Minnesota, 0.02 Runs per Game):
Detroit: 28th in the league, -0.95 SDs
Minnesota: 20th in the league, -0.44 SDs
Total: Advantage Minnesota, +0.26 Runs per Game, 54% chance of winning the series
Top 6 SPs in the Series (advantage Detroit):
1) Loren Simpson, Det (3.28), pitched 5 days ago
2) Jake Meacha, Min (3.47), pitched 5 days ago
3) Jesus Zagal, Det (3.48), rested
4) Shane Sandoval, Min (3.51), rested
5) Anastasio Reyes, Det (3.87), rested
6) Frederik Lambert, Det (3.98), pitched 4 days ago
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage Detroit):
Detroit (bin Ra'id, Aleman, Olvera): 3.24 AxFIP
Minnesota (Jenkins, House, Gutierrez): 3.85 AxFIP
Prognosis: Minnesota, over the regular season, appears to be the slightly better team. But Detroit's rotation is more front-loaded, is better, and they have a better top-end bullpen, all of which skew things their way. But last, we have Jamal Cervantes being out for the series. Even if I only peg Cervantes as 5 wins better than his replacement (conservative), that's still a bit north of 0.3 runs per game of value. Put Cervantes being out, Detroit having home field, and their playoff adjustment advantages, and I think Detroit is the favorite here, to the tune of maybe as high as 60% for the series.
Losing Cervantes *hurts*. It's almost like losing the probable AL MVP for the series against your division rival reduces your chances . . .
Offense (Advantage Detroit, 0.03 Runs per Game):
Detroit: 4th in the league, +1.13 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Minnesota: 5th in the league, +1.07 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pitching (Advantage Detroit, 0.03 Runs per Game):
Detroit: 8th in the league, +0.94 SDs
Minnesota: 9th in the league, +0.85 SDs
Fielding (Advantage Minnesota, 0.30 Runs per Game):
Detroit: 19th in the league, -0.27 SDs
Minnesota: 2nd in the league, +1.75 SDs
Base Running (Advantage Minnesota, 0.02 Runs per Game):
Detroit: 28th in the league, -0.95 SDs
Minnesota: 20th in the league, -0.44 SDs
Total: Advantage Minnesota, +0.26 Runs per Game, 54% chance of winning the series
Top 6 SPs in the Series (advantage Detroit):
1) Loren Simpson, Det (3.28), pitched 5 days ago
2) Jake Meacha, Min (3.47), pitched 5 days ago
3) Jesus Zagal, Det (3.48), rested
4) Shane Sandoval, Min (3.51), rested
5) Anastasio Reyes, Det (3.87), rested
6) Frederik Lambert, Det (3.98), pitched 4 days ago
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage Detroit):
Detroit (bin Ra'id, Aleman, Olvera): 3.24 AxFIP
Minnesota (Jenkins, House, Gutierrez): 3.85 AxFIP
Prognosis: Minnesota, over the regular season, appears to be the slightly better team. But Detroit's rotation is more front-loaded, is better, and they have a better top-end bullpen, all of which skew things their way. But last, we have Jamal Cervantes being out for the series. Even if I only peg Cervantes as 5 wins better than his replacement (conservative), that's still a bit north of 0.3 runs per game of value. Put Cervantes being out, Detroit having home field, and their playoff adjustment advantages, and I think Detroit is the favorite here, to the tune of maybe as high as 60% for the series.
Losing Cervantes *hurts*. It's almost like losing the probable AL MVP for the series against your division rival reduces your chances . . .