Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati RedsOffense (Advantage Cincinnati, 0.73 Runs per Game):
Cincinnati: 3rd in the league, +1.76 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pittsburgh: 9th in the league, +0.40 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pitching (Advantage Cincinnati, 0.38 Runs per Game):
Cincinnati: 4th in the league, +1.29 SDs
Pittsburgh: 15th in the league, +0.09 SDs
Fielding (Advantage Cincinnati, 0.21 Runs per Game):
Cincinnati: 6th in the league, +0.79 SDs
Pittsburgh: 24th in the league, -0.60 SDs
Base Running (Advantage Pittsburgh, 0.04 Runs per Game):
Cincinnati: 21st in the league, -0.45 SDs
Pittsburgh: 10th in the league, +0.67 SDs
Total: Advantage Cincinnati, +1.28 Runs per Game, 73% chance of winning the series
Top 6 SPs in the Series (advantage Cincinnati):
1) Ivan Garcia, Cin (3.43), rested
2) Ichizo Ine, Cin (3.70), rested
3) Rick Vinson, Cin (3.74), rested
4) Gerardo Pineiro, Pit (3.96), pitched 4 days ago
5) Steve Morris, Pit (4.04), rested
6) Bill Day, Pit (4.29), rested
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage Arizona):
Cincinnati (Zavala, Crawford, Thomas): 3.33 AxFIP
Pittsburgh (Williams, Pomeroy, Chavez): 3.20 AxFIP
Prognosis: Cincinnati is the better team. By a substantial margin. And Cincinnati's front-end rotation is notably better than Pittsburgh's, which favors them. Pittsburgh's small edge in bullpen does not make up for this. I don't want to undersell Pittsburgh - they're a very good team. It's just that Cincinnati is really, really, really good. I give Cincinnati a 75% chance to walk away with the series win.