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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Feb 24, 2024 15:53:18 GMT -5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals
Offense (Advantage Washington, 1.31 Runs per Game):
Washington: 1st in the league, +2.38 Standard Deviations from the Mean Arizona: 17th in the league, -0.06 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pitching (Advantage Washington, 0.63 Runs per Game):
Washington: 7th in the league, +1.14 SDs Arizona: 27th in the league, -0.85 SDs
Fielding (Advantage Arizona, 0.25 Runs per Game):
Washington: 18th in the league, -0.26 SDs Arizona: 3rd in the league, +1.41 SDs
Base Running (Advantage Washington, 0.02 Runs per Game):
Washington: 15th in the league, -0.15 SDs Arizona: 25th in the league, -0.62 SDs
Total: Advantage Washington, +1.71 Runs per Game, 79% chance of winning the series
Top 6 SPs in the Series (advantage Washington):
1) Dan Gallaghe, Was (2.14), rested 2) Jorge Trespalacios, Was (3.73), rested 3) Alfredo Moroyoqui, Ari (3.91), pitched 4 days ago 4) Billy Kemper, Was (4.06), rested 5) Charlie Linttell, Was (4.19), rested 6) Hunter Coleman, Ari (4.31), rested
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage Arizona):
Washington (Smith, Paige, Lopez): 3.75 AxFIP Arizona (Nieto, Scott, Davis): 3.49 AxFIP
Prognosis: Washington has weaknesses. Their fielding isn't great. Their rotation (after Gallaghe) is only decent. Their bullpen is mortal. But none of it really matters, because their offense is absolutely bonkers, and Dan Gallaghe may well be the best pitcher in the league. And Washington's rotation after Gallaghe is still better than Arizona's. Look, it's a five-game series, and if the D-Backs can take one off of Gallaghe anything can happen, but they are definitely the worse team here. I'm giving Washington a solid 80% chance of taking this series.
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