Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Feb 24, 2024 9:50:28 GMT -5
Detroit Tigers @ Colorado Rockies
Offense (Advantage Colorado, 0.37 Runs per Game):
Colorado: 2nd in the league, +1.81 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Detroit: 4th in the league, +1.13 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pitching (Advantage Detroit, 0.29 Runs per Game):
Colorado: 16th in the league, +0.03 SDs
Detroit: 8th in the league, +0.95 SDs
Fielding (Advantage Colorado, 0.09 Runs per Game):
Colorado: 12th in the league, +0.32 SDs
Detroit: 19th in the league, -0.27 SDs
Base Running (Advantage Colorado, 0.02 Runs per Game):
Colorado: 17th in the league, -0.31 SDs
Detroit: 28th in the league, -0.95 SDs
Total: Advantage Colorado, +0.19 Runs per Game, 54.9% chance of winning the series
Top 6 SPs in the Series (advantage Detroit):
1) Loren Simpson, Det (3.28), pitched 4 days ago
2) Ulbert Doppenberg, Col (3.54), rested
3) Jesus Zagal, Det (3.65), pitched 2 days ago
4) Anastasio Reyes, Det (3.87), rested
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage Colorado):
Colorado (Ramos, Bailey, Dubarry): 3.14 AxFIP
Detroit (bin Ra'id, Aleman, Olvera): 3.24 AxFIP
Prognosis: By the above calculations, and by overall team WAR, Colorado is the better team. And they have home field advantage. Detroit's one advantage, pretty clearly, is in their rotation. They have five of the top six SPs in the series - after Doppenberg, Colorado's rotation drops off fairly hard. Detroit is coming off the ALWC, which means that they won't get Simpson until Game 2 (probably) and Zagal until Game 3 (probably) and they'll *still* have a big advantage in front-end pitching. And that counts. Guillermo Hernandez would have been mighty, mighty nice to have for Colorado in this series.
That said, even if we pegged Detroit's pitching for this series at a full 0.50 runs per game better than Colorado's (not an unreasonable argument), that would merely make the matchup even, and Colorado has home field. Colorado has the *slightly* better clutch bullpen. And, as I posted in Live Sims Matter last night, Detroit's best pitchers are lefties (Simpson, Zagal and Lambert) and Colorado absolutely obliterates lefties. Whether Detroit pitches Simpson and Zagal and pits their strength against Colorado's strength, or they pitch their righties against Colorado, Detroit's edge in Starting Pitching isn't as big as it might look. Overall, I'm calling this close, with Colorado having something around 54% chance of winning. This is a close matchup, and 5 games isn't a big sample size.
Offense (Advantage Colorado, 0.37 Runs per Game):
Colorado: 2nd in the league, +1.81 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Detroit: 4th in the league, +1.13 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pitching (Advantage Detroit, 0.29 Runs per Game):
Colorado: 16th in the league, +0.03 SDs
Detroit: 8th in the league, +0.95 SDs
Fielding (Advantage Colorado, 0.09 Runs per Game):
Colorado: 12th in the league, +0.32 SDs
Detroit: 19th in the league, -0.27 SDs
Base Running (Advantage Colorado, 0.02 Runs per Game):
Colorado: 17th in the league, -0.31 SDs
Detroit: 28th in the league, -0.95 SDs
Total: Advantage Colorado, +0.19 Runs per Game, 54.9% chance of winning the series
Top 6 SPs in the Series (advantage Detroit):
1) Loren Simpson, Det (3.28), pitched 4 days ago
2) Ulbert Doppenberg, Col (3.54), rested
3) Jesus Zagal, Det (3.65), pitched 2 days ago
4) Anastasio Reyes, Det (3.87), rested
5) Frederick Lambert, Det (3.98), rested
6) Jose Lopez, Det (4.04), rested
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage Colorado):
Colorado (Ramos, Bailey, Dubarry): 3.14 AxFIP
Detroit (bin Ra'id, Aleman, Olvera): 3.24 AxFIP
Prognosis: By the above calculations, and by overall team WAR, Colorado is the better team. And they have home field advantage. Detroit's one advantage, pretty clearly, is in their rotation. They have five of the top six SPs in the series - after Doppenberg, Colorado's rotation drops off fairly hard. Detroit is coming off the ALWC, which means that they won't get Simpson until Game 2 (probably) and Zagal until Game 3 (probably) and they'll *still* have a big advantage in front-end pitching. And that counts. Guillermo Hernandez would have been mighty, mighty nice to have for Colorado in this series.
That said, even if we pegged Detroit's pitching for this series at a full 0.50 runs per game better than Colorado's (not an unreasonable argument), that would merely make the matchup even, and Colorado has home field. Colorado has the *slightly* better clutch bullpen. And, as I posted in Live Sims Matter last night, Detroit's best pitchers are lefties (Simpson, Zagal and Lambert) and Colorado absolutely obliterates lefties. Whether Detroit pitches Simpson and Zagal and pits their strength against Colorado's strength, or they pitch their righties against Colorado, Detroit's edge in Starting Pitching isn't as big as it might look. Overall, I'm calling this close, with Colorado having something around 54% chance of winning. This is a close matchup, and 5 games isn't a big sample size.