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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Feb 24, 2024 7:26:57 GMT -5
Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers
Offense (Advantage Minnesota, 0.09 Runs per Game):
Texas: 7th in the league, +0.90 Standard Deviations from the Mean Minnesota: 5th in the league, +1.08 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pitching (Advantage Texas, 0.10 Runs per Game):
Texas: 6th in the league, +1.17 SDs Minnesota: 9th in the league, +0.85 SDs
Fielding (Advantage Minnesota, 0.16 Runs per Game):
Texas: 7th in the league, +0.70 SDs Minnesota: 2nd in the league, +1.75 SDs
Base Running (Advantage Texas, 0.05 Runs per Game):
Texas: 6th in the league, +0.98 SDs Minnesota: 20th in the league, -0.44 SDs
Total: Advantage Minnesota, +0.10 Runs per Game, 50.2% chance of winning the series
Top 5 SPs in the Series (advantage Texas?):
1) Jake Meacha, Min (3.47), pitched 2 days ago 2) Shane Sandoval, Min (3.51), pitched 4 days ago 3) Joe Wheeler, Tex (3.65), rested 4) Jason Delgado, Tex (4.03), rested 5) Arturo Guerrero, Tex (4.05), rested
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage Texas):
Texas (Klein, Long, Hale): 3.42 AxFIP Minnesota (Jenkins, House, Gutierrez): 3.85 AxFIP
Prognosis: Minnesota is good. Like, really good. Their defense is great, their offense is great, their front-end rotation is great. But Texas is deeper in the rotation and is fully rested - Meacha may not see the mound until Game 3. And Texas appears to have a bullpen advantage that Minnesota doesn't have. Given that Texas has home field advantage, and in light of the above, I'd shade my prediction toward Texas, but it should be *really* close. I'm calling it Texas around 52%. Either team could take this.
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