2070 Wild Card Round Preview - Cardinals @ Pirates
Feb 23, 2024 16:03:03 GMT -5
Sean_RedsGM likes this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Feb 23, 2024 16:03:03 GMT -5
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates:
Offense (Advantage St. Louis, 0.24 Runs per Game):
Pittsburgh: 9th in the league, +0.40 Standard Deviations from the Mean
St. Louis: 8th in the league, +0.85 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pitching* (Advantage St. Louis, 0.38 Runs per Game):
Pittsburgh: 15th in the league, +0.09 SDs
St. Louis: 5th in the league, +1.29 SDs
Fielding (Advantage St. Louis, 0.13 Runs per Game):
Pittsburgh: 24th in the league, -0.62 SDs
St. Louis: 13th in the league, +0.25 SDs
Base Running (Advantage Pittsburgh, 0.04 Runs per Game):
Pittsburgh: 10th in the league, +0.67 SDs
St. Louis: 22nd in the league, -0.47 SDs
Total: Advantage St. Louis, +0.71 Runs per Game, 54.0% chance of winning the series
Top 5 SPs in the Series (advantage Pittsburgh):
1) Steve Morris, Pit (15th), pitched 4 days ago
2) Millard Valdez, Stl (20th), pitched 2 days ago
3) Gerardo Pineiro, Pit (37th), pitched 2 days ago
4) Ramon Encarnacion, Stl (45th), pitched 5 days ago
5) Bill Day, Pit (46th), pitched 3 days ago
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage St. Louis):
Pittsburgh (Williams, Ruiz, Pomeroy): 3.41 xFIP
St. Louis (Smith, Knight, Rosa): 3.21 xFIP
Prognosis: St. Louis certainly appears to be the better team. In fact, by the above, St. Louis is as much better than Pittsburgh as Minnesota is over Baltimore. This conclusion is interesting, as both by record and by total WAR the two teams are a lot closer than it might appear (though both of those suggest that St. Louis is the better team, if not by as much - more on that below). However, there are three things that tilt toward Pittsburgh: home field advantage, that I think that Pittsburgh's high team movement advantage makes their HR/FB more predictive than xFIP thinks (see below), and the fact that Millard Valdez pitched 2 days ago. The rotations are somewhat comparable at the front, but St. Louis' top two (Valdez and Jacobs) pitched 2 and 3 days ago respectively, while Pittsburgh's starters are better rested. With this in mind, I think Pittsburgh has better odds than I suggested above - I'd actually call this a coin toss.
*Pitching, St. Louis vs Pittsburgh: Why does Team WAR think that Pittsburgh is way closer to St. Louis than my numbers above? Once again, it's about HR/FB.
Pittsburgh: 4.00 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, 11.0% HR/FB
St. Louis: 4.04 FIP, 3.90 xFIP, 14.3% HR/FB
St. Louis' HR/FB rate is 8th worst in the league, Pittsburgh's is 4th best.
But is that merited? Let's look at weighted Movement (weighting each pitcher's movement by their IP):
Pittsburgh's weighted movement: 7.28
St. Louis' weighted movement: 6.52
Uhhh, okay. Yeah. That's a thing. Pittsburgh's staff is very high movement. I'm actually going to say that Pittsburgh's pitching is fairly better than its xFIP suggests.
Offense (Advantage St. Louis, 0.24 Runs per Game):
Pittsburgh: 9th in the league, +0.40 Standard Deviations from the Mean
St. Louis: 8th in the league, +0.85 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pitching* (Advantage St. Louis, 0.38 Runs per Game):
Pittsburgh: 15th in the league, +0.09 SDs
St. Louis: 5th in the league, +1.29 SDs
Fielding (Advantage St. Louis, 0.13 Runs per Game):
Pittsburgh: 24th in the league, -0.62 SDs
St. Louis: 13th in the league, +0.25 SDs
Base Running (Advantage Pittsburgh, 0.04 Runs per Game):
Pittsburgh: 10th in the league, +0.67 SDs
St. Louis: 22nd in the league, -0.47 SDs
Total: Advantage St. Louis, +0.71 Runs per Game, 54.0% chance of winning the series
Top 5 SPs in the Series (advantage Pittsburgh):
1) Steve Morris, Pit (15th), pitched 4 days ago
2) Millard Valdez, Stl (20th), pitched 2 days ago
3) Gerardo Pineiro, Pit (37th), pitched 2 days ago
4) Ramon Encarnacion, Stl (45th), pitched 5 days ago
5) Bill Day, Pit (46th), pitched 3 days ago
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage St. Louis):
Pittsburgh (Williams, Ruiz, Pomeroy): 3.41 xFIP
St. Louis (Smith, Knight, Rosa): 3.21 xFIP
Prognosis: St. Louis certainly appears to be the better team. In fact, by the above, St. Louis is as much better than Pittsburgh as Minnesota is over Baltimore. This conclusion is interesting, as both by record and by total WAR the two teams are a lot closer than it might appear (though both of those suggest that St. Louis is the better team, if not by as much - more on that below). However, there are three things that tilt toward Pittsburgh: home field advantage, that I think that Pittsburgh's high team movement advantage makes their HR/FB more predictive than xFIP thinks (see below), and the fact that Millard Valdez pitched 2 days ago. The rotations are somewhat comparable at the front, but St. Louis' top two (Valdez and Jacobs) pitched 2 and 3 days ago respectively, while Pittsburgh's starters are better rested. With this in mind, I think Pittsburgh has better odds than I suggested above - I'd actually call this a coin toss.
*Pitching, St. Louis vs Pittsburgh: Why does Team WAR think that Pittsburgh is way closer to St. Louis than my numbers above? Once again, it's about HR/FB.
Pittsburgh: 4.00 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, 11.0% HR/FB
St. Louis: 4.04 FIP, 3.90 xFIP, 14.3% HR/FB
St. Louis' HR/FB rate is 8th worst in the league, Pittsburgh's is 4th best.
But is that merited? Let's look at weighted Movement (weighting each pitcher's movement by their IP):
Pittsburgh's weighted movement: 7.28
St. Louis' weighted movement: 6.52
Uhhh, okay. Yeah. That's a thing. Pittsburgh's staff is very high movement. I'm actually going to say that Pittsburgh's pitching is fairly better than its xFIP suggests.