2070 Wild Card Round Preview - Twins @ Orioles
Feb 23, 2024 13:10:49 GMT -5
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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Feb 23, 2024 13:10:49 GMT -5
Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles:
Offense (Advantage Minnesota, 0.64 Runs per Game):
Baltimore: 19th in the league, -0.11 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Minnesota: 5th in the league, +1.08 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pitching (Advantage Baltimore, 0.26 Runs per Game):
Baltimore: 1st in the league, +1.67 SDs
Minnesota: 9th in the league, +0.85 SDs
Fielding (Advantage Minnesota, 0.35 Runs per Game):
Baltimore: 23rd in the league, -0.58 SDs
Minnesota: 2nd in the league, +1.75 SDs
Base Running (Advantage Baltimore, 0.04 Runs per Game):
Baltimore: 8th in the league, +0.77 SDs
Minnesota: 20th in the league, -0.44 SDs
Total: Advantage Minnesota, +0.71 Runs per Game, 54.0% chance of winning the series
Top 5 SPs in the Series (advantage Baltimore):
1) Jim Tanner, Bal (2nd), pitched 5 days ago
2) Nicholas Bradley, Bal (5th), pitched 7 days ago
3) Jake Meacha, Min (12th), pitched 5 days ago
4) Shane Sandoval, Min (14th), pitched 6 days ago
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage Minnesota):
Baltimore (Cruz, Moreno, Morroquin): 3.41 xFIP
Minnesota (Jenkins, Hernandez, Ortega): 3.24 xFIP
Prognosis: Baltimore is quietly built for the playoffs. They have the best front-end rotation in the PBL - Jim Tanner is, to my mind, the best pitcher in the American League. And Ernesto Cruz is an outstanding closer. I would *not* want to be facing them.
But Minnesota is better. A lot better. Their bats are heaps better, and they're also an outstanding fielding team. Baltimore has the best pitching in the PBL (arguably), but Minnesota's pitching is quite good. And it's also their weakest point. Minnesota has a better 1-2 punch in their rotation than almost anybody . . . who isn't Baltimore. Even if the entire series were pitched only by the teams' 1-2 SPs, Baltimore's edge there is smaller than Minnesota's edge in Hitting/Fielding. There's no way not to say it - Minnesota's the far better regular season team, but they're also the better playoff team.
But Baltimore has home field advantage. Which means that Minnesota's win chance is somewhere in the 50-55% range. They're the better team, but they could easily lose this.
Let's Talk About Jim Tanner: Bent out of shape about me saying that Tanner is the #1 SP in the AL? Let's talk about that.
By WAR, Tanner is #6 in the AL, behind Simpson, Bradley, Hurst, Martinez and Nakayama (DET, BAL, KCA, TEX and KCA respectively).
By ERA he's 18th in the AL. By FIP he's 5th (behind Bradley, Simpson, Hurst and Nakayama). By xFIP, however, he's 1st by a massive amount (leading Nakayama by as much as Nakayama leads the #15 starter in the AL).
What's up with that?
Well, the difference between FIP and xFIP is basically that FIP counts HRA, while xFIP ignores HR/FB% luck, and assumes that all flyballs have an equal chance of being home runs. Let's look at those Top 6 SPs:
Loren Simpson: 3.050 FIP, 3.785 xFIP
Nicholas Bradley: 2.954 FIP, 3.453 xFIP
Chad Hurst: 3.165 FIP, 3.624 xFIP
Francisco Martinez: 3.406 FIP, 4.021 xFIP
Tokutomi Nakayama: 3.195 FIP, 3.377 xFIP
Jim Tanner: 3.286 FIP, 2.654 xFIP
Can Jim Tanner's home run luck have been that bad? Let's look at the same numbers, but add HR/FB% and Movement:
Loren Simpson: 3.050 FIP, 3.785 xFIP, 7.29% HR/FB, 10 Movement
Nicholas Bradley: 2.954 FIP, 3.453 xFIP, 9.04% HR/FB, 7 Movement
Chad Hurst: 3.165 FIP, 3.624 xFIP, 9.57% HR/FB, 6 Movement
Francisco Martinez: 3.406 FIP, 4.021 xFIP, 9.20% HR/FB, 6 Movement
Tokutomi Nakayama: 3.195 FIP, 3.377 xFIP, 11.63% HR/FB, 8 Movement
Jim Tanner: 3.286 FIP, 2.654 xFIP, 19.58% HR/FB, 8 Movement
Tell me that Jim Tanner HR/FB number isn't a little crazy. In fact, Tanner is 39th of 41 AL qualifying pitchers in that stat. But, movement-wise, there's no reason for it.
Seriously. Jim Tanner is a monster, whom bad luck has kept looking merely really, really good.
Offense (Advantage Minnesota, 0.64 Runs per Game):
Baltimore: 19th in the league, -0.11 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Minnesota: 5th in the league, +1.08 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pitching (Advantage Baltimore, 0.26 Runs per Game):
Baltimore: 1st in the league, +1.67 SDs
Minnesota: 9th in the league, +0.85 SDs
Fielding (Advantage Minnesota, 0.35 Runs per Game):
Baltimore: 23rd in the league, -0.58 SDs
Minnesota: 2nd in the league, +1.75 SDs
Base Running (Advantage Baltimore, 0.04 Runs per Game):
Baltimore: 8th in the league, +0.77 SDs
Minnesota: 20th in the league, -0.44 SDs
Total: Advantage Minnesota, +0.71 Runs per Game, 54.0% chance of winning the series
Top 5 SPs in the Series (advantage Baltimore):
1) Jim Tanner, Bal (2nd), pitched 5 days ago
2) Nicholas Bradley, Bal (5th), pitched 7 days ago
3) Jake Meacha, Min (12th), pitched 5 days ago
4) Shane Sandoval, Min (14th), pitched 6 days ago
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage Minnesota):
Baltimore (Cruz, Moreno, Morroquin): 3.41 xFIP
Minnesota (Jenkins, Hernandez, Ortega): 3.24 xFIP
Prognosis: Baltimore is quietly built for the playoffs. They have the best front-end rotation in the PBL - Jim Tanner is, to my mind, the best pitcher in the American League. And Ernesto Cruz is an outstanding closer. I would *not* want to be facing them.
But Minnesota is better. A lot better. Their bats are heaps better, and they're also an outstanding fielding team. Baltimore has the best pitching in the PBL (arguably), but Minnesota's pitching is quite good. And it's also their weakest point. Minnesota has a better 1-2 punch in their rotation than almost anybody . . . who isn't Baltimore. Even if the entire series were pitched only by the teams' 1-2 SPs, Baltimore's edge there is smaller than Minnesota's edge in Hitting/Fielding. There's no way not to say it - Minnesota's the far better regular season team, but they're also the better playoff team.
But Baltimore has home field advantage. Which means that Minnesota's win chance is somewhere in the 50-55% range. They're the better team, but they could easily lose this.
Let's Talk About Jim Tanner: Bent out of shape about me saying that Tanner is the #1 SP in the AL? Let's talk about that.
By WAR, Tanner is #6 in the AL, behind Simpson, Bradley, Hurst, Martinez and Nakayama (DET, BAL, KCA, TEX and KCA respectively).
By ERA he's 18th in the AL. By FIP he's 5th (behind Bradley, Simpson, Hurst and Nakayama). By xFIP, however, he's 1st by a massive amount (leading Nakayama by as much as Nakayama leads the #15 starter in the AL).
What's up with that?
Well, the difference between FIP and xFIP is basically that FIP counts HRA, while xFIP ignores HR/FB% luck, and assumes that all flyballs have an equal chance of being home runs. Let's look at those Top 6 SPs:
Loren Simpson: 3.050 FIP, 3.785 xFIP
Nicholas Bradley: 2.954 FIP, 3.453 xFIP
Chad Hurst: 3.165 FIP, 3.624 xFIP
Francisco Martinez: 3.406 FIP, 4.021 xFIP
Tokutomi Nakayama: 3.195 FIP, 3.377 xFIP
Jim Tanner: 3.286 FIP, 2.654 xFIP
Can Jim Tanner's home run luck have been that bad? Let's look at the same numbers, but add HR/FB% and Movement:
Loren Simpson: 3.050 FIP, 3.785 xFIP, 7.29% HR/FB, 10 Movement
Nicholas Bradley: 2.954 FIP, 3.453 xFIP, 9.04% HR/FB, 7 Movement
Chad Hurst: 3.165 FIP, 3.624 xFIP, 9.57% HR/FB, 6 Movement
Francisco Martinez: 3.406 FIP, 4.021 xFIP, 9.20% HR/FB, 6 Movement
Tokutomi Nakayama: 3.195 FIP, 3.377 xFIP, 11.63% HR/FB, 8 Movement
Jim Tanner: 3.286 FIP, 2.654 xFIP, 19.58% HR/FB, 8 Movement
Tell me that Jim Tanner HR/FB number isn't a little crazy. In fact, Tanner is 39th of 41 AL qualifying pitchers in that stat. But, movement-wise, there's no reason for it.
Seriously. Jim Tanner is a monster, whom bad luck has kept looking merely really, really good.