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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Feb 23, 2024 12:29:21 GMT -5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks:
Offense (Advantage Arizona, 0.14 Runs per Game):
Arizona: 17th in the league, -0.06 Standard Deviations from the Mean Los Angeles: 20th in the league, -0.34 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pitching (Advantage Los Angeles, 0.03 Runs per Game):
Arizona: 27th in the league, -0.85 SDs Los Angeles: 23rd in the league, -0.76 SDs
Fielding (Advantage Los Angeles, 0.14 Runs per Game):
Arizona: 3rd in the league, +1.41 SDs Los Angeles: 1st in the league, +2.35 SDs
Base Running (Advantage Arizona, 0.05 Runs per Game):
Arizona: 25th in the league, -0.62 SDs Los Angeles: 32nd in the league, -2.03 SDs
Total: Advantage Arizona, +0.02 Runs per Game, 56.3% chance of winning the series
Top 5 SPs in the Series (advantage unclear - neither team has a ton of qualifying SPs):
1) Hunter Coleman, Ari (28th), Pitched 7 days ago 2) Bobby Ball, Lan (30th), Pitched 5 days ago 3) Alejandro Franco, Lan (44th), Pitched 3 days ago 4) Bo Miller, Lan (70th), Pitched yesterday
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage Arizona):
Arizona (Nieto, Scott, Davis): 3.55 xFIP Los Angeles (Crespo, Luicero, Chavez): 4.28 xFIP
Prognosis: These teams are really evenly matched. Like, really evenly. In the end, I favor Arizona for two reasons: 1) Manny Nieto - He's 11th in the PBL in K% (75 IP or more) and is easily the best reliever in the series. In the playoffs, especially in short series, that's a big edge; 2) Arizona is the home field team. In a three game series, Arizona has a big edge. So I'd go Arizona in the 55-60% range, but that's mostly home field advantage.
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