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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Feb 23, 2024 10:48:42 GMT -5
New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers:
Offense (Advantage Detroit, 0.43 Runs per Game):
Detroit: 4th in the league, +1.75 Standard Deviations from the Mean New York: 11th in the league, +0.33 Standard Deviations from the Mean
Pitching (Advantage Detroit, 0.10 Runs per Game):
Detroit: 8th in the league, +0.94 SDs New York: 10th in the league, +0.63 SDs
Fielding (Even):
Detroit: 19th in the league, -0.27 SDs New York: 20th in the league, -0.29 SDs
Base Running (Advantage New York, 0.05 Runs per Game):
New York: 11th in the league, +0.52 SDs Detroit: 28th in the league, -0.94 SDs
Total: Advantage Detroit, +0.48 Runs per Game, 62.5% chance of winning the series
Top 5 SPs in the Series (advantage Detroit):
1) Jesus Zagal, Det (6th in the league), pitched 5 days ago 2) Loren Simpson, Det (11th), pitched 4 days ago 3) Lane Fifield, Nya (19th), pitched 2 days ago 4) Frederick Lambert, Det (40th), pitched 6 days ago 5) Ron White, Nya (41st), pitched 4 days ago
Top Bullpen Comparison (advantage Detroit):
Detroit (bin Ra'id, Aleman, Olvera): 3.39 xFIP New York (Rodriguez, Rosa, Moser): 3.69 xFIP
Prognosis: The Tigers are the better team, they get a theoretical 2/3 of the games at home, their top bullpen is better, their SPs are better, and better rested. The Tigers are the clear favorite here, though probably not by more than the 65-70% range. This is the Wild Card round, anything can happen.
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