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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Feb 18, 2024 9:58:14 GMT -5
The Byes are fairly probable at this point.
In the AL, Texas is a lock. Detroit has a 2 game lead on Colorado with 9 games to go - Colorado has a much easier schedule remaining (easier division) but 2 games is not probable to catch up.
In the NL, Cincinnati and Washington are the bye teams, with Washington having a two game lead on the #1 spot.
In each league there is a really strong #2 division team that's going to get the weakest division-winner.
In the AL, the matchups are looking like:
Yankees (maybe KC or HOU) @ Colorado - In a three game series, Colorado's still a far better team (10 WAR ahead of the best of the three) and is favored at around 63.5% win chance. Winner advances to face Detroit.
Minnesota @ Baltimore - Minnesota will be the away team, but are 12 WAR ahead of Baltimore, and are favored with a 60% win chance on the series. Winner advances to face Texas.
In the NL, the matchups are looking like:
Arizona @ Dodgers - By team WAR, these are the two most overperforming teams in the PBL. WAR thinks they're about even and thus gives the Dodgers a 54% win chance for home field advantage. Winner advances to play Cincinnati.
St. Louis @ Pittsburgh - This is a little unfair, because the Cards are really good, but by WAR the Pirates are more than ten wins ahead of either Arizona or the Dodgers. The Cards have a slightly higher WAR overall, but Pittsburgh is given a 52% win chance because of their home field advantage. Winner advances to play Washington.
Overall:
Cincinnati really wins out here - if the two NL West teams are as weak as their WAR suggests, the Reds are drawing an unusually weak team in the NLDS.
The AL has two teams that are definite favorites (Colorado and Minnesota), but there's only a 37% chance that both of them win their series.
We'll monitor for the next sim or two to see if any of these matchups shake up.
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