Lots of Potential: The 2070 Baltimore Orioles
Jan 29, 2024 8:49:14 GMT -5
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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jan 29, 2024 8:49:14 GMT -5
The Present:
The Orioles are 49-32, with a 7 game lead on the division. Their playoff odds are around 96% right now, and they have the 3rd best record and run differential in the AL.
That said, they are currently 5th in WAR in the AL, though third in Base Runs.
By any reasonable standard, the Orioles this year are a playoff team (though unlikely to get a bye being 7 games behind Texas and the Tigers). They are easily one of the top 6 teams in the AL this year, though how good they are within that depends on your metric being used. But they've pretty much punched their ticket for the playoffs, so the season is already a success.
Past Context:
From 2056 to 2065, the Orioles were nothing if not consistent. Every single year was a losing endeavor. But in 2066 they broke the streak, finishing with 81 wins (though with a 90-win pythag, they were clearly better than they looked). The subsequent year they won those 90 games, won the division and made the playoffs, falling to the Astros in the Wild Card round. In 2068 they had a down year, finishing with a league average team WAR, and finishing 9 games out of the playoffs. Last year the Orioles finished 4th in the AL in WAR, 3rd in pythag and won their division with 88 wins. They fell in the Wild Card round once again, to the Rockies this time.
This turnaround in team performance has led to a massive improvement in finances. In 2065 the Orioles had a budget of $162M, 21st in the league. Not great, but pretty impressive for a team without a winning season in a decade. Going into this season, the Orioles have a budget of $204M, 7th in the league. And they're not closing off options for the future - the Orioles have $47M between their payroll and budget, compared with the league average of $60M, but that's still a solid bit of room to work with.
Either way, the last four years of respectable showings have moved Baltimore into an increasingly solid position for the future.
Either way, the last four years of respectable showings have moved Baltimore into an increasingly solid position for the future.
Speaking of which . . .
The Future:
The Future:
Well, over their decade of losing (2056-2065), the Orioles didn't particularly draft well. Despite their high-ish draft positions, their WAR from draftees yielded the 19th most WAR in the league, about 86% of the average. Their focus was overwhelmingly on pitchers. In that span they actually finished 6th in drafted pitcher WAR, but 30th in batter WAR.
However, in more recent years, they've hit on two studs at SP: Nicholas Bradley and Jim Turner. These two average almost 5 WAR per year, have a Cy Young between them (Bradley in 2068) and are currently two of the four starters in the AL with more than 10 All-Star votes.
Furthermore, their farm system is rated as #7 in the league. Bill Lambright was taken in the 9th round, and has since exploded with potential, currently at 5/5/6 with a potential of 8/10/9, as a lefty with a respectable 7 outfield range. He's currently bludgeoning AAA and is only 24. It isn't clear if he'll hit his potential, but if he even comes close it will be a welcome boon to an already strong team.
They also have #2 pick Bill Bond 9/5/7 potential with 9 infield range. He's only 19, but looks lovely. Felix Medina also has a long way to develop, but looks like an excellent late 1st pick. And Chris Brewer could be the best hitting catcher in the league . . . if he develops. Baltimore has a ton of bats who are big on potential, but are a bit away from realizing it.
Furthermore, their farm system is rated as #7 in the league. Bill Lambright was taken in the 9th round, and has since exploded with potential, currently at 5/5/6 with a potential of 8/10/9, as a lefty with a respectable 7 outfield range. He's currently bludgeoning AAA and is only 24. It isn't clear if he'll hit his potential, but if he even comes close it will be a welcome boon to an already strong team.
They also have #2 pick Bill Bond 9/5/7 potential with 9 infield range. He's only 19, but looks lovely. Felix Medina also has a long way to develop, but looks like an excellent late 1st pick. And Chris Brewer could be the best hitting catcher in the league . . . if he develops. Baltimore has a ton of bats who are big on potential, but are a bit away from realizing it.
Prognosis:
Baltimore will win the division, and make the playoffs again. Given the strength of their front rotation, they're going to be a tougher playoff matchup than their last two appearances would suggest. They're slated to have $26M coming off their books going into next year, mostly in old players that aren't performing (White, Rivera and, oh, let's say Mo). So, on paper, they should be entering the future with an increased budget, dead weight trimmed, and a lot of options.
Will they be able to take advantage? Eliot Bernard is a solid SS fill-in, and there are decent (though not great) options in AAA to fill things in.
Will they be able to take advantage? Eliot Bernard is a solid SS fill-in, and there are decent (though not great) options in AAA to fill things in.
Expect Baltimore to make a strong move in free agency to land a stud, or to trade for salary. They're in a really nice position moving forward. Their budget is going to keep going up (especially if they make it past the wild card round) their salaries are actually in a really solid position, and their division doesn't have a particularly strong other team to challenge them. With 90 wins getting them a division win, the Orioles have a pretty easy path going forward (though watch the Yankees, they're better than their record looks like this year).
It's unclear whether the Orioles will rise to dynastic levels of quality, but there's reason to be optimistic for their next 2-4 seasons, and if some of their high-potential bats develop, they could be a serious team to tangle with.