The 2070 NL West (06/23/70)
Jan 25, 2024 9:29:26 GMT -5
Texas Rangers, Tim_GiantsGM, and 3 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jan 25, 2024 9:29:26 GMT -5
Record / Pythag / WAR / WAR OverUnder:
Los Angeles Dodgers: 41 / 38 / 15 / +7
San Francisco Giants: 38 / 38 / 18 / +0
Arizona Diamondbacks: 33 / 36 / 13 / +1
San Diego Padres: 26 / 28 / 11 / -5
This division looks straightforward. The Dodgers with the second best record in the NL, the Giants being a strong Wild Card contender, the Diamondbacks being mediocre and the Padres rebuilding.
But that is not at all what's happening.
First off, the Padres, while not playing above average ball, are wildly underperforming their team WAR, and are way closer to the Diamondbacks than you'd think in terms of overall performance. And the Dodgers, in turn, are overperforming their WAR by more than any other team in the NL. Pythag actually has the Giants as equal to the Dodgers, and WAR has the Giants as being three wins better. The Dodgers, as a matter of fact, have a team WAR around league average, and no better. So the underlying metrics actually suggest that, so far, the Giants are actually the best team in the NL West, and the Dodgers are only an overperforming average team. So far.
Playoff Odds:
Los Angeles Dodgers: 87.3%
San Francisco Giants: 84.9%
Arizona Diamondbacks: 19.7%
San Diego Padres: 0.3%
All of that said, current record still matters. A lot. The Padres may actually be a decent team, but being twelve games out of the wild card, their odds are extreeeeemely long. Arizona isn't playing particularly well, but at only 5 games out of the wild card, but they still have near 20% odds of making the playoffs. The Dodgers, despite their lackluster underlying metrics, are seven games ahead of the first team out of the playoffs (Montreal), which makes their playoff spot pretty likely. And the Giants, despite being three games back, have solid underlying metrics and a decent lead.
But let's stop for a moment. Arizona has a below average record and below average WAR - isn't 20% playoff odds kind of high?
I'm so glad you asked.
I'm so glad you asked.
Proud to Be An American (League):
The average AL team this year is 36-32.
The average NL team this year is 32-36.
The 6th worst record in the NL is Miami, at 27-41.
The 6th worst record in the AL is Houston, at 34-34.
So Arizona actually has the 8th best record in the NL and an above average WAR for the NL. And there are six teams that, no matter how lucky they get, are really, really unlikely to challenge for a playoff spot.
Let us compare.
Boston and San Diego have almost identical records and WAR.
San Diego's playoff odds: 0.3%
Boston's playoff odds: 0.0%
Cleveland and Houston have better WAR and record than Arizona:
Cleveland: 35-33 / 14.3 WAR
Houston: 34-34 / 14.3 WAR
Arizona: 33-35 / 12.5 WAR
But their playoff odds?
Cleveland: 10.2%
Houston: 9.4%
Arizona: 19.7%
Houston is objectively an average team by any measure (this year), but in the AL that makes it really hard to make the playoffs. Arizona is a below average team (if not by much) but in the NL, that makes them above-average and increases their odds.
Prognosis:
Prognosis:
Obviously the Dodgers and Giants are the front-runners here. But this is the 2070 NL. Playoff spots are more available than you'd think.