"Wait and Hope" - The 2070 Seattle Mariners
Jan 24, 2024 10:07:25 GMT -5
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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jan 24, 2024 10:07:25 GMT -5
“Until the day when God will deign to reveal the future to man, all human wisdom is contained in these two words,—‘Wait and hope.’”
- Alexandre Dumas, the last lines of the Count of Monte Cristo
Let us not dwell overmuch on the present of the Mariners. They're 21-41, only one game ahead from the fragrant turd sandwich that is the 2070 Milwaukee Brewers. They are 27th in Team WAR, 27th in Base Runs, their playoff odds are 0% and their expected win total for the season is around 65. Inasmuch as success is defined as making the playoffs, the current season may be safely deemed a thing well-interred. But that is only the present.
The Past:
The past decade has been unkind to the Mariners. In those ten seasons, they have four seasons with wins in the 50s, three in the 60s and three in the 70s. And those three in the 70s were at 73, 71 and 72 wins. Team WAR is similarly unkind - this season at 27th is the highest they've been in that metric thus far. But one thing is for sure - the Mariners have been drafting high in every draft this decade.
The Draft:
Despite this high draft position, the Mariners have yielded less than the league average in WAR from their draftees over the decade.
League Average in Batters: 14 players not yet retired without contribution, 31.1 WAR
Seattle in Batters: 11 draftees, 24.8 WAR
League Average in Pitchers: 11.8 draftees, 26 WAR
Seattle in Pitchers: 9 draftees, 27 WAR
That Seattle has gotten slightly less than average draft value from their high positions isn't encouraging but there is a silver lining: Seattle has definitely improved in the draft. In the prior decade (2050-2059) Seattle finished 31st in draft yield, despite a similar draft position advantage.
Finances:
Seattle is heavily leveraged, with only $34 million between their payroll and budget. They are the 6th most leveraged team in the league. A lot of this is that lower budget teams (and Seattle has the 3rd lowest budget in the league) are less able to save than other teams . . . but that's not the whole picture.
Only eight teams have a less than $40 million difference between their payroll and their budget - here are their situations:
Only eight teams have a less than $40 million difference between their payroll and their budget - here are their situations:
Houston ($18M): Only doing about average this year (in both wins and WAR) but coming off winning the division and leading their division in WAR by 5 wins, and made it to the ALCS.
St. Louis ($19M): Coming off an NLCS run, they're 9th in the PBL in WAR and with a 4 win lead on wild card.
Montreal ($24M): Coming off a 78-win season, right now they're two games out of the wild card, three games out of the division, and 21st in WAR, they have a 21% playoff odds right now. Probably a reach, but given 21% playoff odds, I can't fault them for how it played out.
Pittsburgh ($25M): Won the division last year, winning the division this year, no shame in this game.
Los Angeles Angels ($28M): Won the AL last year and are currently at 67% playoff odds. Totally reasonable.
Colorado ($36M): Won 89 games last year, currently leading their division and sitting at 98% playoff odds.
Philadelphia ($37M): 23rd in WAR, 6% playoff odds, and coming off a 76-win season at league average WAR. A reach.
And Seattle.
Of these other seven teams, we have five teams that absolutely make sense, one borderline reach and one definite reach. But Seattle is a clear outlier here.
The Horizon:
Seattle has the 18th ranked farm system, according to the game (which doesn't mean much, but more than nothing). Their young first rounders:
Nathan Martin (10th pick in the 2065 draft) was 7/6/6 with 8 infield range when drafted, and has regressed to 6/5/6 with 7 range, and is now merely an average-to-decent infielder.
Ronald McDonald (7th pick of the 2066 draft) was drafted as a 7/8/6 with 7 outfield range. His potential has actually increased, but at 25 he's only 5/5/6 and now down to 5 outfield range. There's time for him to develop yet, but not a lot.
Nathan Martin (10th pick in the 2065 draft) was 7/6/6 with 8 infield range when drafted, and has regressed to 6/5/6 with 7 range, and is now merely an average-to-decent infielder.
Ronald McDonald (7th pick of the 2066 draft) was drafted as a 7/8/6 with 7 outfield range. His potential has actually increased, but at 25 he's only 5/5/6 and now down to 5 outfield range. There's time for him to develop yet, but not a lot.
Martin Davis (3rd pick of the 2067 draft) was drafted as a 10/9/6 starter and, somehow, has actually developed to his potential. On pace for two 5 WAR seasons, he's a stud.
Nick Manning (4th pick of the 2068 draft) was drafted as an 8/3/8 second baseman, and after two years has developed . . . not at all. He's 25 and remains 6/2/6.
Rod Pearson (5th pick of the 2069 draft) was drafted as a 9/8/7 SP and at 23 is already well on his way, at 7/9/6 right now.
. . . what does it all mean?
Prognosis:
Seattle has doubled down on the present when there doesn't appear to be much present to double down on. They have a lot of draft capital, but it hasn't historically yielded near as much as you'd expect, though their drafting record has gotten considerably better over the past decade. And they certainly have some nice young studs (and let's not forget Irving van der Lee in rookie ball).
But make no mistake. Seattle's journey to contention is going to be a long voyage, beset by difficulties and challenges. All you can do in this situation is invest in the future. But what happens when your prospects don't develop? What happens when you draft Nick Manning, and he simply doesn't get better?
There is always more that can be done, always opportunities for improvement. And yet . . .
“Until the day when God will deign to reveal the future to man, all human wisdom is contained in these two words,—‘Wait and hope.’”