Not Another Team Like Them - The 2070 Minnesota Twins
Jan 21, 2024 11:35:50 GMT -5
Sean_RedsGM, Brian_Twins, and 1 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jan 21, 2024 11:35:50 GMT -5
Where They Are:
The Twins are 29-27, eleven games out of first and a game behind in the Wild Card race. Not bad, but a little disappointing, right?
Where They Were:
The Twins are coming off an outstanding four season stretch.
2066: 2nd best Pythag Wins in the AL, running the table from the Wild Card all the way to a championship
2067: 5th best Pythag Wins in the AL
2068: 2nd best Pythag Wins in the AL and a pennant, losing in the World Series to the Reds 4-1
2069: Best Pythag Wins in the AL, but knocked out in the Wild Card round due to a combination of bad luck and bad seeding
That's a *really* good four-year run. Over the last four years they've put up more Pythag Wins than any AL team besides the Tigers (only 3 behind over 4 years), have 14 more than the 3rd place team (Texas), and are the only AL team to win a championship in that span. Pretty good run.
It's pretty sad that the Twins are having such a down year.
Or are they?
Where They Are (Really):
The Twins have the 3rd highest Team WAR in the AL, but are underperforming it by the most in the entire PBL. Likewise, they have only two teams ahead of them in the AL in Base Runs (Texas and Detroit) and have no team underperforming their Base Runs by more.
But if they keep putting up WAR at this rate, they're expected to finish at 95 wins (even given their current record) and their Base Runs suggest a 91-win year if they keep playing at this level. Either way, a probable playoff spot (95 wins has made the playoffs each of the last four years, 91 wins has three out of four). And once this team is in the playoffs, anything is possible.
The Future:
But if they keep putting up WAR at this rate, they're expected to finish at 95 wins (even given their current record) and their Base Runs suggest a 91-win year if they keep playing at this level. Either way, a probable playoff spot (95 wins has made the playoffs each of the last four years, 91 wins has three out of four). And once this team is in the playoffs, anything is possible.
The Future:
The Twins are injury-free so far, which makes them a pretty good bet for a playoff spot. As far as payroll to budget comparisons, they over-leveraged a bit (maybe 60% of a standard deviation above the mean) but that's well within the margins. And they aren't on pace to lose any of their strong players next year.
The real challenge is that two of their young studs (Leandro Vargo and Geoffrey Foster) are going to start their first year of arbitration next year - even if the Twins re-sign nobody their payroll is expected to jump some $15 million next season. Which is, again, within the margins, but higher than you'd like.
So here's the good news. They've got super-stud Cervantes locked down long-term, and two stars making far less than their market value. Which is effing awesome. But it's a serious point of inflection for them.
If the Twins keep winning and keep making the playoff, we could be looking at the groundworks for a dynasty that is competing for championships for the next 5+ years.
And if they have a bad season here and miss the playoffs, and get a budget cut, they can probably run it back . . . but only for one year. Two unlucky years in a row, and it's back to the drawing board, to some extent.
The Prognosis:
So here's the good news. They've got super-stud Cervantes locked down long-term, and two stars making far less than their market value. Which is effing awesome. But it's a serious point of inflection for them.
If the Twins keep winning and keep making the playoff, we could be looking at the groundworks for a dynasty that is competing for championships for the next 5+ years.
And if they have a bad season here and miss the playoffs, and get a budget cut, they can probably run it back . . . but only for one year. Two unlucky years in a row, and it's back to the drawing board, to some extent.
The Prognosis:
There's reason to be optimistic for this team - they're well built and in a good financial position, and way better than their record.
Personally, I'll be rooting for them, because the Twins vs Tigers matchups may be the best divisional rivalry the PBL has seen in the last 5 years.
Personally, I'll be rooting for them, because the Twins vs Tigers matchups may be the best divisional rivalry the PBL has seen in the last 5 years.