Ontario Overhaul - A Look at the Post-Deadline Blue Jays
Aug 23, 2023 14:23:59 GMT -5
Commish_Ron, Sean_RedsGM, and 2 more like this
Post by andrewtoronto on Aug 23, 2023 14:23:59 GMT -5
Simply put, GM Andrew Williams' brief tenure in Toronto has not gone as planned. Inheriting a team that just missed a wild card berth in 2066, the Blue Jays disappointed last season and went into 2068 keeping the core intact hoping to make a run for a playoff spot. The start of the season was a disaster, and in May team moved on from it's star, DH Bill McMillan and shipped out several other core members of the roster to jump start a rebuild. Since that point, the roster has been a revolving door (27 position players and 25 pitchers have suited up for Toronto this season) with more personnel being moved at the trade deadline. The results have been a mixture of the expected (a strong draft and additional prospects has seen the farm system move into the top 10 after being a bottom 3 organization before the McMillan trade) and surprise (Toronto has sported a .500 record since completely blowing things up at the trade deadline). Who are these new Blue Jays, and what prospects are waiting in the wings to help bring the team back into contention? We take a closer look now.
Catcher: Jing Shaw and Jake Miller are currently sharing the position in a platoon arrangement. Shaw has been a pleasant surprise in providing decent defense and not being an offensive black hole. Miller disappointed offensively early on, and is not a good glove, but improved following his return after the trade deadline. C Henry Cerda, a 22 defensive stalwart acquired in a deal for 2B/SS Kent Cox, struggled as a Rule V pick with Miami this year and is getting consistent playing time at AAA. Al Larson, a 4th round pick in this year's draft is probably the strongest prospect at the position within the organization.
First Base: 10 year Blue Jay Brian McSimon, who's struggles in 2067 extended into the current season, was released in June and replaced by a platoon of waiver wire pick Mels Isabekian and Leonard Denzer. Isabekian started his Toronto tenure extremely hot with a 1.355 OPS in June, has cooled off of late but provides good power and is a solid fit for the ballpark. Denzer has been solid, but unspectacular and has served as the type of placeholder low revenue clubs need to stay afloat. Walt Browning, the Jays' 2065 1st rounder, has enjoyed a breakout season and is currently mashing at AA and looks to be the future at the position perhaps as early as mid-2069. Roberto Cano, who came over from Colorado in a deal for CL Cooper Dubarry and 2B Emiel Moree has hit well in AAA and may be able to provide a spark as well in the future.
Second Base: Emiel Moree was dealt in May to Colorado and was replaced by a hodge-podge of characters. Waiver pickup Elmer Encarnacion had the first opportunity to play, but did not perform and is no longer part of the team's plans. Luis Valdez, who came over in the Moree trade as a salary dump to make financials work, has gotten regular playing time of late and is returning to form. Valdez, a captain personality, provides leadership to a young clubhouse. The team hopes he can round back into form and be flipped for additional prospects, but that may be a dream at this point, as Valdez hit tool is a question at this point. Jesus Gonzalez, a key piece in the McMillan trade with St. Louis, has done nothing but hit since joining the organization and was a September call up. The plan is for Gonzalez to play SS against righties, and 2B against lefties and see how he fares against big league pitching. Gonzalez is smooth in the field, but concerns about arm strength may limit him to 2B long term. Jesus Valdes, the 10th overall pick in this year's draft is currently playing 2B in A ball and is the top bat in the organization. However, defensive concerns exist and it looks like he may move to 1B or LF eventually.
Shortstop: Jim Andres, probably the best defensive SS in Paramount Baseball history, was sent to Arizona during the May trading frenzy. Kent Cox tried and failed to fill in after shifting over from 2B, and was dealt to the Orioles at the trade deadline. Journeyman Luis Pagan was signed to a minor league deal in late May and has been a very pleasant surprise, putting up 1.2 WAR in 67 games since taking over the everyday role. Pagan has had less success against righties but is mashing against lefties while providing solid defense. Pagan is currently platooning with the aforementioned Gonzalez with expanded roster, but he has definitely carved out a long-term role with the Blue Jays going forward. Gonzalez is the only prospect to speak of who could stick at SS, so this a position that will need attention going forward.
Third Base: Fred Bromley's completely bottomed out this season, leading to his ultimate release in June. He has since been replaced by Stan Encell, a waiver wire pick up from the Giants following opening day cuts. Encell, a former first round pick, is a low contact hitter with plus power from the left hand side and has used the dimensions of Rogers Centre to his advantage. Encell leads the team with 21 HRs and and .817 OPS along with being above average defensively. At 26, Encell still has a bit of room to grow. That, along with 5 years of control remaining, make him seem like a long term building block. The farm is a bit barren here as well.
Outfield: Francisco Vega is the only everyday starter that has survived the season in Toronto, where he has been a constant in CF. Vega is a plus-plus glove, but adds little else. On the plus side, the lack of offensive production makes him an affordable piece for the team's short term plans. Looking forward, the team is grooming Sam Hernandez to take over for Vega. Hernandez is another player who derives most of his value defensively, but the hope is that he can provide slightly more to the team offensively. Hernandez has had a promising season that has seen him get promoted from low-A up to AA in the last month. At this point, he seems on track for a 2069 or 2070 audition with the big league club.
The corner OF position have seen some transition this season. LF Juan Morales was sold (with a host of others) to Oakland at the trade deadline, and RF Jerome Vargas was released shortly after opening day. 2064 first rounder Mike Gonzalez made his big league debut in July and immediately impressed with his hit tool and ability in the field. Unfortunately, he succumbed to a season ending injury after just 13 games in Toronto, but is penciled in for an everyday. Waiver wire pickup Luis Roman has played in both corner spots since joining the squad, but has settled in as the everyday RF during the second half of the season. Roman has taken advantage of the opportunity with average offensive and plus defense, but is probably best suited to serve in a reserve role on a contending team.
Top prospects for corner OF spots (along with Jesus Valdes) are RF Tony Elliot and LF Doug Spanjer-Furstenbu. Both players boast solid all around games who profile as above-average players in many facets of the game. In the lower minors and international complex, Antonio Aleman and Anibel Rivera are young, raw players with plus power potential that are probably LF/DH types long-term.
Designated Hitter: Bill McMillan's departure created a hole that cannot be patched by one player. Following the trade, the team aggressively called up 22 year old Dai-lin Xiu, who has responded better than expected with a .260/.330/.516 line after coming up from AA. Xiu is a platoon bat who is effective against righties, and is another left handed power hitter made for this ballpark. Xiu also has a strong hit tool and seems like he could grow into a dependable middle of the order bat.
Starting Pitcher: The cornerstones of the Blue Jay rotation are Matt Conl and Dave Braun. Conl is a tantalizing talent whose production has not matched his talent, but he is the best hope this team has in finding a top of rotation starter in the next 2-3 years, given the team's budgets constraints. Braun has enjoyed a breakout year in 2068, utilitizing strong movement to get positive results. William Garcia, who started the year as the #5 starter due to a lack of options has been adequate, but someone the team will look to upgrade from. Longtime rotation pieces Kasuko Ono and Albert Moroyoquoi departed via trade during the season. Eric Barker was a failure in a brief rotation stint. 27 year old rookie Pedro Parra was awful initially, but has settled into to being a solid starter in the second half. Pablo Soto was signed off the street at the deadline and has been surprisingly effective, although the team still thinks he fits better in the bullpen.
Help is on the way from the farm system. Hector Bautista, acquired from Colorado in the Duberry deal, has joined the rotation as a September callup and is auditioning for a larger role in 2068. Lou Markakis, part of the McMillan haul, may get a chance to start soon as well, although he is currently in the big league bullpen. The 2068 draft provided a bevy of arms with great stuff who are a ways off, but show plenty of promise in Tyrone Bryant, James Dyer and Maximo Campos. The Blue Jays spent $27 million on draft bonuses this year and time will tell whether it's money well spent. Alfonso Mendez, acquired from Arizona for Jim Andres, and Zach Howard are also prospects of note who could find their way into a big league rotation one day.
Bullpen: To say the bullpen has been a weakness would be generous. It's been atrocious. The combination of having no money to spend in free agency and a dearth of pitching prospect led to the team breaking camp with four Rule V draftees in the bullpen (Corey Callahan, Wan-hua Qiu, Ken Burris and Elvis Logan). The results have been about what you'd expect. All four have struggled and it would be surprising to see any of the four make the big league roster next year. Callahan is a former top 100 prospect who still has potential, but needs to better develop his pitches to be successful. Qiu, Burris and Logan do not profile as difference makers, but cheap, serviceable arms are important, especially for low budget organizations like Toronto.
Longtime anchors of the Blue Jay pen (Cooper Duberry and Jui-il Kae) departed via trade, providing plenty of opportunities for fringe players to carve out a role. Eric Barker has shown potential in a relief role, although he has been a bit up and down. Waiver wire pickups Michael Reed and Edgar Martinez have impressed in limited innings thus far. Joey Simons, an acquisition from Colorado, looks like he's ready to slot into a middle relief role as well. Expect the 11-13 spots of the pitching staff to see quite a bit of churn going forward as the team attempts to improve the talent here.
On the farm, Murdock Hollett and Gary King profile as impact relievers if they develop. Hollett was drafted as a starter, but the lack of a third pitch led to the team moving him to a relief role. He is currently showing up on Top 100 prospect lists, a pleasant surprise for a 7th round draft pick. Chris Wilson looks like he could be a decent middle reliever, but is also a few years away from the show.
Outlook: Although the team clearly went into sell mode early, the impact on the field has not been as adverse as expected. One could make the argument that the team is overperforming, and that they are due for regression. While that is true, seeing the team compete and not be embarrassed after losing so many contributors is a positive development. Expecting this team to compete in the next 2-3 seasons in the AL East is probably optimistic, but there is hope long term if the team's prospects are able to develop as expected. With $22 million to spend this off-season, there will be opportunities to bolster the big league team and potentially become trade chips to further the rebuilding effort. There's a ways to go, but there is hope for the future in Toronto.
Catcher: Jing Shaw and Jake Miller are currently sharing the position in a platoon arrangement. Shaw has been a pleasant surprise in providing decent defense and not being an offensive black hole. Miller disappointed offensively early on, and is not a good glove, but improved following his return after the trade deadline. C Henry Cerda, a 22 defensive stalwart acquired in a deal for 2B/SS Kent Cox, struggled as a Rule V pick with Miami this year and is getting consistent playing time at AAA. Al Larson, a 4th round pick in this year's draft is probably the strongest prospect at the position within the organization.
First Base: 10 year Blue Jay Brian McSimon, who's struggles in 2067 extended into the current season, was released in June and replaced by a platoon of waiver wire pick Mels Isabekian and Leonard Denzer. Isabekian started his Toronto tenure extremely hot with a 1.355 OPS in June, has cooled off of late but provides good power and is a solid fit for the ballpark. Denzer has been solid, but unspectacular and has served as the type of placeholder low revenue clubs need to stay afloat. Walt Browning, the Jays' 2065 1st rounder, has enjoyed a breakout season and is currently mashing at AA and looks to be the future at the position perhaps as early as mid-2069. Roberto Cano, who came over from Colorado in a deal for CL Cooper Dubarry and 2B Emiel Moree has hit well in AAA and may be able to provide a spark as well in the future.
Second Base: Emiel Moree was dealt in May to Colorado and was replaced by a hodge-podge of characters. Waiver pickup Elmer Encarnacion had the first opportunity to play, but did not perform and is no longer part of the team's plans. Luis Valdez, who came over in the Moree trade as a salary dump to make financials work, has gotten regular playing time of late and is returning to form. Valdez, a captain personality, provides leadership to a young clubhouse. The team hopes he can round back into form and be flipped for additional prospects, but that may be a dream at this point, as Valdez hit tool is a question at this point. Jesus Gonzalez, a key piece in the McMillan trade with St. Louis, has done nothing but hit since joining the organization and was a September call up. The plan is for Gonzalez to play SS against righties, and 2B against lefties and see how he fares against big league pitching. Gonzalez is smooth in the field, but concerns about arm strength may limit him to 2B long term. Jesus Valdes, the 10th overall pick in this year's draft is currently playing 2B in A ball and is the top bat in the organization. However, defensive concerns exist and it looks like he may move to 1B or LF eventually.
Shortstop: Jim Andres, probably the best defensive SS in Paramount Baseball history, was sent to Arizona during the May trading frenzy. Kent Cox tried and failed to fill in after shifting over from 2B, and was dealt to the Orioles at the trade deadline. Journeyman Luis Pagan was signed to a minor league deal in late May and has been a very pleasant surprise, putting up 1.2 WAR in 67 games since taking over the everyday role. Pagan has had less success against righties but is mashing against lefties while providing solid defense. Pagan is currently platooning with the aforementioned Gonzalez with expanded roster, but he has definitely carved out a long-term role with the Blue Jays going forward. Gonzalez is the only prospect to speak of who could stick at SS, so this a position that will need attention going forward.
Third Base: Fred Bromley's completely bottomed out this season, leading to his ultimate release in June. He has since been replaced by Stan Encell, a waiver wire pick up from the Giants following opening day cuts. Encell, a former first round pick, is a low contact hitter with plus power from the left hand side and has used the dimensions of Rogers Centre to his advantage. Encell leads the team with 21 HRs and and .817 OPS along with being above average defensively. At 26, Encell still has a bit of room to grow. That, along with 5 years of control remaining, make him seem like a long term building block. The farm is a bit barren here as well.
Outfield: Francisco Vega is the only everyday starter that has survived the season in Toronto, where he has been a constant in CF. Vega is a plus-plus glove, but adds little else. On the plus side, the lack of offensive production makes him an affordable piece for the team's short term plans. Looking forward, the team is grooming Sam Hernandez to take over for Vega. Hernandez is another player who derives most of his value defensively, but the hope is that he can provide slightly more to the team offensively. Hernandez has had a promising season that has seen him get promoted from low-A up to AA in the last month. At this point, he seems on track for a 2069 or 2070 audition with the big league club.
The corner OF position have seen some transition this season. LF Juan Morales was sold (with a host of others) to Oakland at the trade deadline, and RF Jerome Vargas was released shortly after opening day. 2064 first rounder Mike Gonzalez made his big league debut in July and immediately impressed with his hit tool and ability in the field. Unfortunately, he succumbed to a season ending injury after just 13 games in Toronto, but is penciled in for an everyday. Waiver wire pickup Luis Roman has played in both corner spots since joining the squad, but has settled in as the everyday RF during the second half of the season. Roman has taken advantage of the opportunity with average offensive and plus defense, but is probably best suited to serve in a reserve role on a contending team.
Top prospects for corner OF spots (along with Jesus Valdes) are RF Tony Elliot and LF Doug Spanjer-Furstenbu. Both players boast solid all around games who profile as above-average players in many facets of the game. In the lower minors and international complex, Antonio Aleman and Anibel Rivera are young, raw players with plus power potential that are probably LF/DH types long-term.
Designated Hitter: Bill McMillan's departure created a hole that cannot be patched by one player. Following the trade, the team aggressively called up 22 year old Dai-lin Xiu, who has responded better than expected with a .260/.330/.516 line after coming up from AA. Xiu is a platoon bat who is effective against righties, and is another left handed power hitter made for this ballpark. Xiu also has a strong hit tool and seems like he could grow into a dependable middle of the order bat.
Starting Pitcher: The cornerstones of the Blue Jay rotation are Matt Conl and Dave Braun. Conl is a tantalizing talent whose production has not matched his talent, but he is the best hope this team has in finding a top of rotation starter in the next 2-3 years, given the team's budgets constraints. Braun has enjoyed a breakout year in 2068, utilitizing strong movement to get positive results. William Garcia, who started the year as the #5 starter due to a lack of options has been adequate, but someone the team will look to upgrade from. Longtime rotation pieces Kasuko Ono and Albert Moroyoquoi departed via trade during the season. Eric Barker was a failure in a brief rotation stint. 27 year old rookie Pedro Parra was awful initially, but has settled into to being a solid starter in the second half. Pablo Soto was signed off the street at the deadline and has been surprisingly effective, although the team still thinks he fits better in the bullpen.
Help is on the way from the farm system. Hector Bautista, acquired from Colorado in the Duberry deal, has joined the rotation as a September callup and is auditioning for a larger role in 2068. Lou Markakis, part of the McMillan haul, may get a chance to start soon as well, although he is currently in the big league bullpen. The 2068 draft provided a bevy of arms with great stuff who are a ways off, but show plenty of promise in Tyrone Bryant, James Dyer and Maximo Campos. The Blue Jays spent $27 million on draft bonuses this year and time will tell whether it's money well spent. Alfonso Mendez, acquired from Arizona for Jim Andres, and Zach Howard are also prospects of note who could find their way into a big league rotation one day.
Bullpen: To say the bullpen has been a weakness would be generous. It's been atrocious. The combination of having no money to spend in free agency and a dearth of pitching prospect led to the team breaking camp with four Rule V draftees in the bullpen (Corey Callahan, Wan-hua Qiu, Ken Burris and Elvis Logan). The results have been about what you'd expect. All four have struggled and it would be surprising to see any of the four make the big league roster next year. Callahan is a former top 100 prospect who still has potential, but needs to better develop his pitches to be successful. Qiu, Burris and Logan do not profile as difference makers, but cheap, serviceable arms are important, especially for low budget organizations like Toronto.
Longtime anchors of the Blue Jay pen (Cooper Duberry and Jui-il Kae) departed via trade, providing plenty of opportunities for fringe players to carve out a role. Eric Barker has shown potential in a relief role, although he has been a bit up and down. Waiver wire pickups Michael Reed and Edgar Martinez have impressed in limited innings thus far. Joey Simons, an acquisition from Colorado, looks like he's ready to slot into a middle relief role as well. Expect the 11-13 spots of the pitching staff to see quite a bit of churn going forward as the team attempts to improve the talent here.
On the farm, Murdock Hollett and Gary King profile as impact relievers if they develop. Hollett was drafted as a starter, but the lack of a third pitch led to the team moving him to a relief role. He is currently showing up on Top 100 prospect lists, a pleasant surprise for a 7th round draft pick. Chris Wilson looks like he could be a decent middle reliever, but is also a few years away from the show.
Outlook: Although the team clearly went into sell mode early, the impact on the field has not been as adverse as expected. One could make the argument that the team is overperforming, and that they are due for regression. While that is true, seeing the team compete and not be embarrassed after losing so many contributors is a positive development. Expecting this team to compete in the next 2-3 seasons in the AL East is probably optimistic, but there is hope long term if the team's prospects are able to develop as expected. With $22 million to spend this off-season, there will be opportunities to bolster the big league team and potentially become trade chips to further the rebuilding effort. There's a ways to go, but there is hope for the future in Toronto.