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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Aug 14, 2021 10:35:05 GMT -5
Standard Disclaimers:
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you. 2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality. 3) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient. 4) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders. 5) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today. 6) This is adjusted for half of the amount the GM has under/over performed the sheet to date. 7) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots. 8) This is counting the entire franchise roster, so minor league players may be counted if my sheet thinks that they're an upgrade. 9) And to be clear, when I say a team is better/worse than last year, I'm explicitly comparing them to where they and their players were in spring training of the prior year.
It's going to be team, forecast wins, Playoff odds, Bye odds and Pennant odds (take the last one with a grain of salt)
AL East
Boston Red Sox, 77.3 wins, 56.9% Playoffs, 1.6% Bye, 1.8% Pennant New York Yankees, 72.0 wins, 20.3% Playoffs, 0.3% Bye, 0.4% Pennant Baltimore Orioles, 71.3 wins, 15.8% Playoffs, 0.1% Bye, 0.3% Pennant Toronto Blue Jays, 66.3 wins, 3.4% Playoffs, --- Bye, --- Pennant
AL Central
Cleveland Indians, 86.4 wins, 45.0% Playoffs, 12.5% Bye, 4.0% Pennant Detroit Tigers, 85.8 wins, 41.2% Playoffs, 11.8% Bye, 3.7% Pennant Minnesota Twins, 83.9 wins, 30.1% Playoffs, 7.3% Bye, 2.2% Pennant Chicago White Sox, 77.6 wins, 5.8% Playoffs, 1.4% Bye, 0.3% Pennant
AL West
Oakland Athletics, 91.5 wins, 75.6% Playoffs, 40.5% Bye, 11.4% Pennant Colorado Rockies, 88.3 wins, 50.9% Playoffs, 24.0% Bye, 6.0% Pennant Los Angeles Angels, 79.8 wins, 10.0% Playoffs, 3.0% Bye, 0.6% Pennant Seattle Mariners, 59.4 wins, --- Playoffs, --- Bye, --- Pennant
AL South
Houston Astros, 106.1 wins, 99.6% Playoffs, 76.6% Bye, 41.8% Pennant Texas Rangers, 100.4 wins, 97.0% Playoffs, 25.3% Bye, 22.8% Pennant Tampa Bay Rays, 88.2 wins, 49.6% Playoffs, 1.0% Bye, 4.1% Pennant Kansas City Royals, 61.7 wins, --- Playoffs, --- Bye, --- Pennant
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies, 89.9 wins, 85.3% Playoffs, 17.7% Bye, 10.7% Pennant New York Mets, 85.7 wins, 62.1% Playoffs, 6.0% Bye, 5.6% Pennant Pittsburgh Pirates, 72.2 wins, 2.8% Playoffs, --- Bye, 0.1% Pennant Montreal Expos, 70.8 wins, 2.4% Playoffs, --- Bye, 0.1% Pennant
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers, 100.1 wins, 99.9% Playoffs, 86.8% Bye, 34.7% Pennant Cincinnati Reds, 78.7 wins, 21.4% Playoffs, 0.1% Bye, 0.9% Pennant St. Louis Cardinals, 76.3 wins, 10.6% Playoffs, 0.1% Bye, 0.4% Pennant Chicago Cubs, 68.3 wins, 1.1% Playoffs, --- Bye, --- Pennant
NL West
San Diego Padres, 86.5 wins, 66.5% Playoffs, 9.3% Bye, 6.2% Pennant San Francisco Giants, 85.3 wins, 60.7% Playoffs, 5.6% Bye, 4.9% Pennant Arizona Diamondbacks, 84.1 wins, 48.2% Playoffs, 4.4% Bye, 3.6% Pennant Los Angeles Dodgers, 72.8 wins, 3.8% Playoffs, --- Bye, 0.1% Pennant
NL South
Washington Nationals, 96.9 wins, 98.7% Playoffs, 68.0% Bye, 26.1% Pennant Atlanta Braves, 79.2 wins, 21.7% Playoffs, 0.8% Bye, 1.0% Pennant Carolina Warhounds, 76.1 wins, 9.9% Playoffs, 0.1% Bye, 0.4% Pennant Miami Marlins, 73.2 wins, 5.1% Playoffs, 0.1% Bye, 0.1% Pennant
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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Aug 23, 2021 7:41:31 GMT -5
4/26/60 Update - AL
AL - Big Movers:
Colorado, +35.7% Playoff Odds Oakland, -31.7% Playoff Odds Minnesota, +14.3% Playoff Odds Toronto, +12.4% Playoff Odds Boston, -9.9% Playoff Odds Cleveland, -8.0% Playoff Odds New York, -7.7% Playoff Odds
AL - Division Forecast by Wins
Boston 76.2 Baltimore 71.8 Toronto 71.3 New York 71.0
Detroit 88.2 Minnesota 87.4 Cleveland 87.1 Chicago 76.6
Colorado 94.5 Oakland 88.5 Los Angeles 77.1 Seattle 56.6
Houston 112.5 Texas 98.4 Tampa Bay 89.7 Kansas City 62.0
AL Playoff Picture (playoff odds in parenthesis):
Byes: Houston Astros (100%), Colorado Rockies (84.5%) Division Winners: Detroit Tigers (48.6%), Boston Red Sox (47.1%) Wild Card: Texas Rangers (93.0%), Tampa Bay Rays (50.6%)
Bubble Teams: Minnesota (44.4%), Oakland (43.9%), Cleveland (37.0%)
Pennant Odds (min 1%):
Houston, 48.2% Texas, 16.4% Colorado, 12.1% Oakland, 4.9% Tampa Bay, 4.5% Cleveland, 3.4% Minnesota, 2.8% Boston, 1.2%
Stories:
1. The AL West is in upheaval. In spite of pre-season optimism and several bold moves, Oakland is struggling. Their 9-9 record isn't bad by a long shot, but their WAR is comfortably below league average so far. It's not huge; they're still expected to finish in the high 80s. But at the same time Colorado has come out like gangbusters, going 13-5 and posting the second highest WAR in the AL (a WAR rating of +1.70, which is really good). It's not that Oakland's doing badly or that Colorado's doing well, it's that both are happening at the same time. And they've basically switched places in the forecast, with Colorado now expected to be the second bye and Oakland expected to be a strong contender for the wild-card. 2. Houston's performance is Astro-nomical (heh). They're 16-2, boasting a WAR rating above +2 and forecast at a ridiculous 112.5 wins. At this point they're being given almost 50% odds to win the pennant in the AL, and that's pretty nuts. 3. The AL Central is wacky and ridiculous. Again. Detroit, Cleveland and Minnesota are all forecast within 1.1 win of each other for the end of the season. Minnesota, forecast weakest of the three, is playing the best (12-6, +0.43 WR) and has forced themselves into this three-way situation. Detroit may yet run away with it, but so far it's anyone's game. 4. The AL Wild Card will be a bloodbath. Again. The Texas Rangers are forecast to finish around 100 wins, meaning that the AL really only has one wild card slot available. There is only one slot between Tampa, the loser of Colorado/Oakland and the runner-up of Detroit/Minnesota/Cleveland. Several really good teams are going to be left out in the cold this year. Put another way: in the entire AL, there are only three teams with playoff odds above 51%: Houston, Texas and Colorado. Everyone else is going to have to fight. For their right. To party.
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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Aug 31, 2021 16:13:18 GMT -5
NL Update 5/31/60
The numbers are estimated wins, playoff odds and Estimated Quality (a mix of preseason WAR forecast and WAR to date - WAR rating is measured in standard deviations so 0 is average, +1 is quite good and +2 is ATG-level)
NL East:
NYN: 96.0 / 98.5% / +0.83 MON: 82.2 / 32.1% / -0.38 PHI: 77.2 / 8.1% / +0.17 PIT: 68.9 / 0.3% / -0.76
Stories: The Mets have been playing like gangbusters. To date they have the 2nd best WAR in the NL (behind the Padres, ahead of the Brewers) and they have the second best record in the league. The preseason forecast liked their roster fine but it wasn't expecting this. As it is they're probably the best bet for a second bye (even if their odds of getting it are only 39% or so) on account of their three-game lead over the Padres. The EQ thinks they're only the 4th best team in the NL, but they've pretty much punched their ticket to the playoffs at this point. The Expos are even more of a surprise. They're overperforming their preseason WAR forecast by more than anyone in the NL. Don't get me wrong, they're not playing dominant ball (a +0.36 WR to date is decent but not amazing), but given that they're 29-20 (overperforming their WAR) . . . a playoff berth isn't crazy to imagine. The Phillies are underperforming their forecast by more than the Expos are overperforming. Even with this 49-game sample my sheet thinks that the Phillies are the better team. But with a 10-game deficit to make up (10 for the Expos, 9 for the wild card) and poor performance to date (-0.69 WR) it looks like this may be a lost season for the Phillies. The Pirates are actually playing slightly better than expected . . . they have a legitimate shot at breaking 70 wins this year.
NL Central:
MIL: 105.1 / 100.0% / +1.63 CIN: 75.4 / 3.3% / -0.37 STL: 73.8 / 1.8% / -0.66 CHN: 64.3 / 0.0% / -1.06
Stories: The Brewers ripped off a 15-game win streak and now have the best record in the NL (even if they had to overperform their WAR to get there). Their WAR to date is only quite good (+1.26 WR, which is excellent but worse than expected) but they still look to be a shoe-in for a bye. The Reds and Cardinals both started the season with outside shots at wild cards this year and both have disappointed. Their WAR Ratings (-0.53 and -0.77 respectively) have been poor and their weak records to date (22 and 23 wins respectively) angle both of them for finishes in the mid-low 70s. And what chances they might have had from there have been quashed by several surprise teams making playoff pushes (Montreal, Atlanta and Carolina). The Cubs have been better than their record suggests (17-32 but a -0.79 WR which is only 4th worst in the NL) but this is emphatically not their year. And they look to be a reliable lock for the #2 worst record in the NL come year end.
NL West:
SDN: 94.8 / 98.0% / +1.03 ARI: 83.6 / 43.4% / +0.44 SFN: 81.4 / 27.4% / +0.08 LAN: 68.2 / 0.5% / -0.83
Stories: San Diego has been making the preseason forecast look silly, as they've been tearing through the competition so far this year. They have the best WAR in the NL to date, even if their 29-20 record doesn't reflect that level of dominance. They're pretty much a playoff lock given their 5-game lead on the division and an entire standard deviation in WAR to date from the next closest divisional rival. As for a bye . . . they're three games behind the Mets and they're seriously being penalized for an only somewhat optimistic preseason forecast. They should be in the thick of it for that spot. The Diamondbacks haven't been showing a good record so far (23-26) but their preseason forecast and WAR to date have both been solid (+0.59 so far). They're only expected to win 83.6 games this year . . . but that actually gives them a close to even shot at the playoffs. I cannot emphasize enough that the NL wild-card race is going to be weird this year. The Giants . . . it seems like every other year the Giants underperform hard and I never understand why. So far they're a game ahead of Arizona but they've actually had a below average WAR Rating (-0.34) and that definitely gives them an uphill battle. The Dodgers, as Dennis Green would say, were who we thought they were.
NL South:
WAS: 94.1 / 97.0% / +1.40 ATL: 87.7 / 73.3% / +0.12 CAR: 78.2 / 13.0% / -0.72 MIA: 60.5 / 0.0% / -1.14
Stories: What a wacky division. My sheet is very, very unpersuaded by these teams' current records. The Nats are only 25-24 but are being given 97.0% playoff odds (94.1 expected wins). What gives? Well, their preseason forecast was the second best in the NL (and a good bit above the #3 team) and they've actually been playing great (+1.15 WR so far, 4th in the league). So despite a lackluster record, my sheet is actually reasonably confident in predicting that they'll be one of the four teams in the NL to break 90 wins this year. But part of the playoff odds comes from the two other teams ahead of them in their division. Atlanta is tearing through the season at 30-19, five games ahead of the Nats. But my sheet isn't convinced. First, my preseason forecast saw the Braves as a league average team. That's not everything, but it's something. And the second is that the Braves haven't actually played super great or anything; they have the 6th best WAR in the NL (+0.47 which is solid but not remarkable). Couple a lackluster preseason forecast to a merely decent WAR rating to date and the Braves simply aren't seen as being a particularly strong team. Their current record means that they have a good shot at a playoff spot, but the sheet isn't convinced of their quality yet. And the Warhounds . . . They're 28-21, perhaps even more surprising than the Expos. If the season ended today they'd be in the playoffs. But my sheet only gives them a 13% shot at the playoffs. Some of it is the preseason forecast (which was fairly negative). But what's even worse is the Warhounds WAR to date (-0.99). There are only two teams in the NL with a worse WAR. They've outperformed their WAR by 10 wins so far (5 more than the next closest team), they've outperformed their pythag by 6 wins (2 more than the next closest team) and outperformed their Base Runs by 9 wins (5 more than the next closest team). The Warhounds' current record is, by every indicator, a fluke of epic proportions. Anything's possible, but their performance to date isn't an endorsement. And the Marlins are like the T-34. At this point an extremely reliable tank.
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee (100%), New York Mets (97.5%) Divisional Winners: San Diego (97.6%), Washington (97.4%) Wild Cards: Atlanta (75.2%), Arizona (42.3%) Bubble Teams: Montreal (36.0%), San Francisco (27.2%), Carolina (11.0%), Philadelphia (7.8%), Cincinnati (4.5%), St. Louis (2.6%)
Power Rankings:
1. Milwaukee, 37.3% Pennant chance
2. Washington, 21.6% Pennant chance 3. San Diego, 16.3% Pennant chance 4. New York Mets, 14.1% Pennant chance
5. Atlanta, 3.9% Pennant chance 6. Arizona, 3.2% Pennant chance 7. San Francisco, 1.4% Pennant chance 8. Montreal, 1.0% Pennant chance 9. Philadelphia, 0.5% Pennant chance 10-11. Cincinnati/Carolina, 0.2% Pennant chance
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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Sept 3, 2021 15:28:14 GMT -5
AL Power Rankings (6/14/21):
- Pennant is calculated odds of winning the pennant, wins is the expected number of wins through the rest of the year, Playoff is the estimated odds of making the playoffs, Bye is the estimated odds of getting a bye, EQ is a combination of WAR to date and Preseason Forecast WAR, measured in standard deviations from the mean, so 0 is average, +1 is quite good and +2 is historically good.
1. Houston Astros: 47.9% Pennant / 112.1 wins / 100% Playoff / 100% Bye / +2.15 EQ - There's really no bones about it. Houston has been the best team in the PBL so far. They're expected to finish more than 10 wins ahead of the next closest team in the AL. They have the #1 WAR, #1 Base Runs and #3 Pythag. Not a lot to say here, except they're fairly clear World Series favorites at this point (though that's probably worth no higher than 30%). -------------------------------------- 2. Colorado Rockies: 19.7% Pennant / 101.6 wins / 97.7% Playoff / 69% Bye / +1.26 EQ - Colorado has been playing really well. They have the #2 WAR, #3 Base Runs and #1 Pythag in the league so far. My forecast is still a little cautious (as their preseason eval was good but not great) but they've got a 7-game lead on both the division and the Wild Card, and that counts for a lot. When you combine a big lead like that with EQ considering them the #2 team in the league right now (by a tiny bit), it's hard not to like their chances. --------------------------------------- 3. Texas Rangers: 10.2% Pennant / 95.3 wins / 75.3% Playoff / 0% Bye / +1.22 EQ - Texas is two games out of the Wild Card right now (and nine from the division, but let's focus on the possible here). And despite that my sheet thinks very highly of them. Their preseason eval was very bullish, and their WAR to date has been a respectable 5th in the AL. I'd love to say that their record has underperformed their stats, but it's actually slightly *overperformed*. The Rangers, to date, haven't been terribly good. And it may seem mental that they're being put #3 here. And it's pretty much based purely around the fact that their preseason forecast was so damned good. There are still 100 games left in the season; more than enough time for what my sheet thinks is still a superior team to make up the ground. But they'd better be about it; my sheet thinks the average expected shape of the AL to be EIGHT different teams winning 88.9 games or more divided between three divisions. Texas is favored, but there are a horde of teams willing to exploit any weakness.
4. Detroit Tigers: 9.3% Pennant / 96.4 wins / 83.5% Playoff / 22.2% Bye / +0.88 EQ - Detroit is almost an inversion of Texas. Detroit has a two-game lead on their division and a five-game lead on the Wild Card. And they've been playing quite well so far this year; there are only six teams in the PBL whose WAR so far is over a standard deviation from the mean, and Detroit is one. In every way their season is going quite well. The knock? My preseason forecast was not sold on Detroit, seeing them as only a pretty good team (high 80s wins). So while Texas is playing decently, but is considered to be an underperforming great team, Detroit is playing really well, but is considered to be an overperforming good team. Obviously this could shake out either way. But their position in the division is fairly strong; while their lead on their rivals is small, Detroit to date has played at a considerably higher level (and is expected to for the rest of the season. ----------------------------------- 5. Oakland Athletics: 6.0% Pennant / 92.2 wins / 54.7% Playoff / 4.2% Bye / +0.97 EQ - Oakland was favored in the division going into the year. And, frankly, they've played close to the level expected. But they have the misfortune to be in the same division as a team playing extraordinarily (the Rockies). Furthermore their record hasn't kept pace with their performance; they're underperforming each major metric by about 3 wins (their WAR/Pythag/Base Runs all suggest a 36-37 win team). This bad luck puts them in the bloody arena with FIVE other teams in the AL all in the 33-35 win range (I'm counting Minnesota here), hence Oakland's fairly low playoff odds. But as far as overall quality they're considered the 4th best team in the AL right now (slightly ahead of Detroit) and this means that if they *do* make the playoffs, they should be considered a tough matchup. ------------------------------------ 6. Tampa Bay Rays: 2.1% Pennant / 89.1 wins / 26.1% Playoff / 0% Bye / +0.71 EQ - There is probably no team over the last decade that has blended "Is Really Good" with "Has Really Crap Luck with their League/Division Environment Every Year" quite so perfectly. Tampa is quite good. Their WAR Rating to date and forecast were both around +0.70 which isn't great, but it's plenty good (and will get you a playoff spot most years). But they've slightly underperformed their metrics (by 2 wins for WAR) which puts them into the piranha tank. Of all the teams at this level, Tampa has the best WAR and the highest EQ (blend of preseason forecast WAR and WAR to date). The sheet actually thinks that they're four games better than Minnesota over the remaining 100 games. In short, the sheet thinks that Tampa, Cleveland and Minnesota are all pretty much interchangeable for playoff odds at this point. The Rays' only saving grace is that they're considered the best team of the bunch, which gives them the edge in a pennant forecast. But it's a silver lining to the serious cloud of being the 6th ranked team when only five teams make the playoffs.
7. Cleveland Indians: 1.9% Pennant / 88.9 wins / 27.2% Playoff / 1.3% Bye / +0.45 EQ - Cleveland hasn't played terribly well so far (their WAR has migrated from slightly below average to slightly above average). But their record has put them in the second wild card spot for the moment. And all metrics like Cleveland more than the first wild card, Minnesota. But to maintain their spot Cleveland has to hold off strong teams like Texas and Tampa, and that won't be easy if they keep putting up lackluster WAR. Most of Cleveland's ranking here (besides their record) is that the preseason forecast rather liked their roster.
8. Minnesota Twins: 1.3% Pennant / 89.0 wins / 27.4% Playoff / 2.0% Bye / +0.23 EQ - Minnesota has a three-game lead on the Wild Card and is only two games back on the division. But their WAR to date has been mediocre (comparable to but worse than Cleveland's) and their preseason forecast was considerably less optimistic. Their record means that their odds are still reasonable, but this is a brutal environment to be an only decent team in. ----------------------------- 9. Toronto Blue Jays: 0.6% Pennant / 76.4 wins / 67.0% Playoff / 0.2% Bye / -0.93 EQ - How do you solve a problem like Maria, err, the AL East? It feels ridiculous for Toronto, with a 67% chance of making the playoffs, to be ranked below the Twins (with a 27% chance at the playoffs). And yet. Toronto may have a 34-28 record. But, contrary to their record, they've actually played fairly poorly so far. They've overperformed their Pythag and Base Runs by 6 wins apiece, and their WAR by 7 wins. So even if they're 34-28, they've played like a 28-34 team. And to make matters worse, their preseason eval was way more negative than that, placing them as the 3rd worst team in the AL. Now, those evals can be wrong. But at this point Toronto looks like something between a below average team and an outright bad team, that happened to get lucky with their wins and also be in a division where no other teams are expected to win more than 72 games. They're likely to make the playoffs, but not likely to do a lot more than that. Hence their ranking.
10. Los Angeles Angels: 0.3% Pennant / 84.6 wins / 7.6% Playoff / 0.4% Bye / +0.06 EQ - The Angels to date have played like a slightly above average team (+0.20 WAR Rating) and overperformed that mark slightly in record (34-28). Between the lackluster WAR to date and preseason eval, they're not expected to finish much above the mid-80s. In a normal season this would mean that they have a respectable chance of getting lucky and making a playoff run. But with the bloodbath above them, LA has a very, very uphill battle to get one of those spots.
11. Boston Red Sox: 0.3% Pennant / 71.4 wins / 17.4% Playoff / 0% Bye / -0.68 EQ - My preseason eval loved the Red Sox, which is to say, it thought they were probably the best team in the AL East, even if below average. But so far they've played pretty badly (almost a full -1 WAR rating) and their record hasn't done them any favors. Even now my sheet thinks that they're the best team in the AL East, but seven games behind the Jays, it's not going to be easy for them to get a spot.
12. Baltimore Orioles: 0.1% Pennant / 69.3 wins / 9.5% Playoff / 0% Bye / -0.94 EQ - Baltimore is a fairly weak team (though in estimated quality, no worse than Toronto). But unlike Toronto, they haven't gotten insanely lucky with their record. They've got an outside shot at the pennant because their division gives them a loose chance of making the playoffs. But they're just as far back as the Red Sox, but are (in theory) a worse team. ------------------------------- 13. Chicago White Sox: 0% Pennant / 72.4 wins / 0% Playoffs / 0% Bye / -0.57 EQ - Chicago has played worse than their preseason eval so far (first time that's happened in a while). They're not an awful team (their Estimated Quality is better than anyone in the AL East, if not by a lot) but they're playing poorly and their division is comparably tough (with three teams expected to finish above 88 wins. Not their year.
14. New York Yankees: 0% Pennant / 61.0 wins / 0.1% Playoffs / 0% Bye / -1.10 EQ - The only team on this bottom tier with even a remote chance of the playoffs. But they're a ridiculous 14 games behind Toronto, and they're playing very badly. They're not as bad as they look . . . but they're pretty bad this year.
15. Kansas City Royals: 0% Pennant / 59.2 wins / 0% Playoffs / 0% Bye / -1.68 EQ - To date they've played better than their poop-tastic preseason eval, but this year is definitely not going their way. In fairness to them, even there was a year to avoid investing in a playoff race in the AL and rebuild . . . this might have been it.
16. Seattle Mariners: 0% Pennant / 57.5 wins / 0% Playoffs / 0% Bye / -1.64 EQ - Seattle has played better than expected, but this is really, really, really, really not their year.
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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Sept 7, 2021 16:47:31 GMT -5
NL Power Rankings - 6/28/60
1. Milwaukee Brewers, 29.6% Pennant, 100% Playoffs, 73.5% Bye, 100.7 Wins, +1.45 EQ - Milwaukee is . . . well, I shouldn't say struggling. They have the 2nd best record in the NL and retain the highest pennant odds for the moment. But they honestly haven't played that well. Their WAR rating to date is +1.12, which is excellent but well below what was expected going into the season (the only two NL teams underperforming their preseason eval by more are Miami and Philadelphia). And with that comparably disappointing performance they're not quite considered the frontrunner that they had been. They have a four-game hold on the second bye, which is great. But to date Washington and the Mets have posted higher team WARs and San Diego has been close. Milwaukee is still considered the #1 team at the intersection of their #2 record, #3 WAR and #1 preseason forecast . . . but they don't look like a juggernaut so far this year.
2. Washington Nationals, 24.2% Pennant, 98.5% Playoffs, 35.8% Bye, 96.8 Wins, +1.47 EQ - When my sheet picks a team that combines great WAR to date with a great preseason forecast that happens to be underperforming . . . I usually expect to be proven right. I don't usually expect it to be this fast. They've gone 17-9 in the last month and now boast the 3rd best record in the NL (tied). That they are four games behind the Brewers and seven behind the Mets means that they are not likely to get a bye (though it's extremely possible). But they boast the highest Estimated Quality of any team in the NL at this point (they've barely passed the Brewers on that front). And in a situation where they get extra games to prove their mettle (like the playoffs) that very much plays to their advantage.
3. New York Mets, 22.1% Pennant, 99.9% Playoffs, 78.4% Bye, 101.2 Wins, +1.13 EQ - The Mets' rampage continues unabated. They are now 49-26, with the best record in the NL and a three-game lead on the next highest team. And they have the highest WAR in the NL by a solid margin (3rd highest in the PBL). By any reasonable indicator, the Mets have been the best team in the NL so far this year. And yet . . . My preseason forecast rather liked their roster but was hardly blown away. The Mets have outperformed their preseason forecast by more than any other team in the league. Maybe my sheet is really, really wrong about them but I don't think that it is (or at least, I don't think that it's completely wrong). So at this point the Mets are being treated with caution, as my sheet doesn't think that they can maintain this level of performance. It could easily be wrong.
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4. San Diego Padres, 10.5% Pennant, 89.3% Playoffs, 7.3% Bye, 91.7 Wins, +0.93 EQ - San Diego has slipped a little bit in the last month. EQ still thinks that overall they're the 4th best team in the NL (and way ahead of the 6th best team). By WAR they're clearly a Top 5 team, which means that they should be a shoe-in for the playoffs. And their odds are high. But their record situation is a problem. The NL (not counting the above three teams) has SEVEN teams in the 40-42 win range. My sheet thinks that there's a very clear hierarchy between those seven (one really top, two top, two middle and two bottom) but randomness happens. You really, really, really don't want to have to be one of six teams fighting for three playoff spots with half a season to go; too much can happen. All of that said, San Diego has played well so far and is considered to have a strong roster. They have a pretty good shot.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks, 9.5% Pennant, 90.7% Playoffs, 4.9% Bye, 91.9 Wins, +0.83 EQ - Everything I just said about San Diego can be said about Arizona, within reason. Their roster is considered slightly worse from the preseason, their WAR to date is just barely worse, but they happen to be one game up on their divisional rival. Arizona's record isn't incredibly strong (four-way tie for the 3rd best record in the NL, with three other teams within two games) but they have the 5th best WAR to date in the NL (by a ton) and have the 5th best EQ in the NL (also by a ton). Though their position is fraught, my sheet thinks that they're good enough to be pretty secure (that either San Diego or Arizona is very likely to get a spot from winning the division is a big help).
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6. San Francisco Giants, 1.9% Pennant, 42.7% Playoffs, 0.1% Bye, 85.3 Wins, +0.23 EQ - The Giants have barely played above average ball so far (+0.05 WAR rating) but their record (40-35) has kept them in the hunt. They are part of the disgustingly massive scrum in the 40-42 win range but their play to date and their preseason forecast mean that my sheet is surprisingly sanguine about their chances of walking away with one of the wild cards. And after all, they're only two games back in their own division.
7. Atlanta Braves, 1.5% Pennant, 40.9% Playoffs, 0.3% Bye, 85.0 Wins, +0.06 EQ - Just as Arizona and San Diego were very similar, the Giants and Braves are another pair. They're both part of this massive scrum, and are both considered slightly above average teams. Their real selling point is that my sheet is *deeply* suspicious of the Expos and Warhounds, which means that there are seven teams fighting for six spots. With that in mind the Braves have a legitimately solid shot. If the Warhounds/Expos manage to hang on, this is going to get a lot uglier.
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8. Montreal Expos, 0.3% Pennant, 17.8% Playoffs, 0% Bye, 81.8 Wins, -0.47 EQ - Montreal is winning a ton. They're 42-33, tied for the 3rd best record in the NL. That's great, right? But their WAR Rating to date is actually below average, at -0.21, and their preseason forecast was even worse than that. In other words, my sheet is quite convinced that they're a poor (but not awful) team that happens to have the record of a very good team. And they're expected to fall back to earth (though still finish above 500). They may not, of course. There's just not a lot of evidence to take their record super seriously.
9. Carolina Warhounds, 0.2% Pennant, 12.4% Playoffs, 0% Bye, 80.8 Wins, -0.60 EQ - Again, another pair. The Warhounds are tied for the 3rd best record in the NL. Only the Warhounds are playing considerably worse than the Expos (-0.73 WAR Rating so far). Their record is more than good enough to give them a viable shot at the playoffs, but they are not expected to keep up this level of performance.
10. Cincinnati Reds, 0.2% Pennant, 6.2% Playoffs, 0% Bye, 79.4 Wins, -0.14 EQ - Cincinnati is your traditional "slightly below average team with a slightly below average record with an outside chance at the playoffs". That Montreal and Carolina are winning so much has definitely complicated the picture for them but they're still in the hunt.
11. Philadelphia Phillies, 0.1% Pennant, 1.4% Playoffs, 0% Bye, 75.4 Wins, +0.12 EQ - Philadelphia . . . what the ever loving heck. No team in the PBL has underperformed their preseason forecast by this much. And not only are they not playing well (-0.40 WAR Rating to date) but their record is underperforming their WAR. My sheet thought that they were a legitimate division contender with the Mets. Even now my sheet still thinks that they're an above-average team, that just happens to have a terrible record. My sheet thinks that they're way, way, way better than they look. And it still thinks that, with so many teams above them, it won't do them much good.
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12. St. Louis Cardinals, 0% Pennant, 0.1% Playoffs, 0% Bye, 72.9 Wins, -0.73 EQ - Where Cincinnati has played reasonably true to their forecast, the Cardinals have had a tough season. They're not awful by a long shot, and there are plenty of teams worse than them, but this looks like a solid but unremarkable low 70s-win season.
13. Pittsburgh Pirates, 0% Pennant, 0.1% Playoffs, 0% Bye, 69.9 Wins, -0.73 EQ - My sheet basically sees the Pirates as being similar to the Cardinals in quality and performance. It's just that the Cardinals happen to be three games up so the Pirates are only expected to finish around 70 wins.
14. Chicago Cubs, 0% Pennant, 0% Playoffs, 0% Bye, 64.9 Wins, -0.86 EQ - Chicago honestly hasn't been playing awfully. Their WAR to date and preseason forecast are both similar to the Cards and Pirates. It's just that the Cubs are turning similar performance into fewer wins (probably bad luck).
15. Los Angeles Dodgers, 0% Pennant, 0% Playoffs, 0% Bye, 61.2 Wins, -0.94 EQ - The Dodgers are three games behind the Cubs and are posting worse WAR numbers by a little bit.
16. Miami Marlins, 0% Pennant, 0% Playoffs, 0% Bye, 51.1 Wins, -1.47 EQ - The Marlins were expected to be bad. But only, like, 11th best team in the NL bad. Somehow they're playing way, way, way worse than that. The Marlins have the worst WAR in the league and it's not close. And there's not really a huge reason for it; they don't have the worst roster in the league (that I can tell). Sometimes you roll out a bad team, and then they radically underperform their quality, and then they underperform that performance by winning even fewer games than expected. The Marlins *should* only be a garden-variety bad team. Heck, my sheet thought that they were better than Montreal going into the season. It's been a wacky, wacky year.
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