2057 AL Albatross List
Dec 9, 2020 13:10:00 GMT -5
Texas Rangers, BlueJaysGM_Fin, and 3 more like this
Post by MetDaMeats on Dec 9, 2020 13:10:00 GMT -5
Hey new guys! This is my seasonal article about the longest and largest contracts in the league! First rule, contract size is relative (some teams can afford to spend $40 million on one player, and for others its their entire payroll). If I ever need a tie-breaker to decide if a contract is an Albatross I imagine how tradable it might be. Second, any contract that only has one year of guaranteed (non team option) money is non-albatross, no matter how large it is. Finally, it's all in good fun. Everyone's had an Albatross at one time or another. Any contract critiques are purely for entertainment and not to be taken to heart!
LEGEND:
* A great contract. No need to worry.
** Has some downside, but could make you look pretty smart.
*** A few red flags that could go either way.
**** This contract may be having a negative impact on the team.
***** Severe Albatross potential on every level.
Baltimore Orioles
**** (+1 star) Jen-Kan Hu (3B)
** (No change) Jorge Ramirez (C)
Boston Red Sox
*** (New) Jose Vera (DH)
*** (No change) Orlando Garcia (3B)
Chicago White Sox
**** (+1 star) Angelo Cruz (RF)
**** (No change) Fernando Gonzalez (SS)
** (New) Harry Casz (DH)
* (No change) Steve Guindon (3B)
Cleveland Indians
**** (+1 star) Alfredo Sanchez (SP)
*** (+2 stars) Joe McGee (3B)
** (+1 star) Carlos Rocha (SP)
* (No change) Kip Blue (SP)
Colorado Rockies
*** (New) Luis Torres (SP)
* (No change) Sarsa-Dengal Robienayai (SP)
Detroit Tigers
*** (New) John Ross (1B)
* (New) Jotaro Inagaki (SS)
Houston Astros
*** (New) Armando Ferreira (SP)
* (New) Paul Burke (SP)
Kansas City Royals
**** (No change) Jose Contreras (SS)
*** (No change) Mario Medina (C)
** (No change) Bill Kachmar (RF)
Los Angeles Angels
*** (New) Naoki Masanobu (1B)
Minnesota Twins
I see no albatrosses here. And unless Minnesota decides to extend Ramon Crus before his arbitration years are up, there might not be any for a while.
New York Yankees
***** (No change) Guilhelm Ciaravella (SS)
**** (+1 star) Jorge Taylor (SS)
**** (+1 star) Kevin Lopez (SP)
*** (No change) Felix Gomez (C)
*** (+1 star) Ivan Gomez (1B)
*** (+1 star) Jin-song Xiu (1B)
*** (+1 star) Steve Bauer (3B)
Oakland Athletics
*** (No change) Cesar Perez (C)
*** (New) Hua-Ding Xie (SP)
** (New) Travis Olson (2B)
Seattle Mariners
Some way, somehow, the Mariners are in a situation with no money guaranteed next year. Spoiler: The Blue Jays are too, so maybe its not that unique of a circumstance.
Tampa Bay Rays
**** (+1 star) Jim Chesney (3B)
**** (No change) Katsuyuk Johnson (LF)
** (No change) John Miller (SP)
Texas Rangers
*** (New) Hector Martinez (1B)
* (No change) Brady Henderson (3B)
* (No change) Edward Boer (SP)
* (New) Pete Gawley (C)
Toronto Blue Jays
The entire Jays payroll is $20.3 Million dollars this year. However, with arbitration it might balloon to an unfathomable $30.1 Million in 2058. WHO WILL STOP THIS RUNAWAY SPENDING?
LEGEND:
* A great contract. No need to worry.
** Has some downside, but could make you look pretty smart.
*** A few red flags that could go either way.
**** This contract may be having a negative impact on the team.
***** Severe Albatross potential on every level.
Baltimore Orioles
**** (+1 star) Jen-Kan Hu (3B)
- $52 Mill through 2060.
- $52 Mill through 2060.
- $13 Mill player option in 2061.
- My theory is that a player with low power can still be valuable if they've got speed, defense and the ability to hit for average. Just writing that made me feel like one of the old scouts from the beginning of Moneyball. In any event, these days Hu’s defense and contact just aren’t up to snuff.
** (No change) Jorge Ramirez (C)
- $37.83 Mill through 2049.
- Has Jorge been amazing? Not at all. But the Great Catcher Drought of the Late 2050’s has left us all taking whatever we can get. You mean to tell me he can hit 20+ homers and passably play behind the plate? Then he might as well be made of gold.
Boston Red Sox
*** (New) Jose Vera (DH)
- $42.56 Mill through 2058.
- $21.33 vesting option in 2059 after 490 PAs.
- Last year Duane Hansen was the only active player on the top 10 HR list (4th place with 713). This year, Jose Vera (10th place with 648) and Raymond Page (9th place with 649) are both there too. It’s now a three-way race to see who can belt the most dingers before retirement. Here are the money line odds I’d give to who finishes highest: Duane Hansen (-125), Raymond Page (+130) and Jose Vera (+175). I’m not a bookmaker so I have no idea if those are reasonable. I’m going off of pure instinct here.
*** (No change) Orlando Garcia (3B)
- $49.86 Mill through 2058.
- $25.93 Mill team option in 2059 with a $10 Mill buyout.
- $2.5 Mill MVP bonus.
- $1 Mill All-Star bonus.
- Here's a game I like to play: How much salary would the this guy’s team have to retain for me to acquire him in a trade. I think it’s a good way of gauging the relative value of player vs. contract. For Garcia, I think I’d need the Red Sox to retain half the money they owe in order to feel comfortable with bringing him to my squad.
Chicago White Sox
**** (+1 star) Angelo Cruz (RF)
- $25 Mill through 2058.
- Player opt out after 2058
- $40 Mill through 2061.
- $12 Mill player option in 2062.
- The White Sox can afford to keep him on the payroll without doing tremendous damage to their bottom line. But it seems like they’re already resigned to Cruz as a sunk cost. That’s pretty rough 3 years into an eight year deal. A lot is riding on whether he opts out after 2058.
**** (No change) Fernando Gonzalez (SS)
- $86 Mill through 2060.
- $20 Mill player option in 2061.
- I want to go on record with how surprised I’ve been that Fernando has been productive for so many years while still having a wrecked injury rating. But the fact remains that you can’t have him be your starting SS without a backup you really trust. Maybe that’s why the Sox are giving Masakazu Kakuta all those spring training reps.
** (New) Harry Casz (DH)
- $54 Mill through 2060.
- Fact: Casz has put up 0.2 WAR or lower (most often lower) against lefties in every year he’s been a major league player. This man needs a platoon partner. And maybe a life partner? His personality profile goes out of its way to mention how unthinking and unpopular he is. Maybe he’s just a lonely dude-bro!
* (No change) Steve Guindon (3B)
- $62.56 Mill through 2058.
- $26.06 Mill player option in 2059.
- Even on the downslope of his career Guindon is one of the most valuable third basemen around. The extension is downright frugal.
Cleveland Indians
**** (+1 star) Alfredo Sanchez (SP)
- $45.6 Mill through 2057.
- Player opt out after 2057.
- $73 Mill through 2059.
- $30 Mill team option with an $8 Mill buyout in 2060.
- Promised role: Starting pitcher.
- Sanchez has had 1 great year and 3 competent years since coming to Cleveland. Except you don’t give a guy $45 million to be competent. I do wonder whether he’ll have the brass balls to opt out and test free agency after this year. My instinct is no.
*** (+2 stars) Joe McGee (3B)
- $103 Mill through 2061.
- $23 Mill player option in 2062.
- I’m not saying he isn’t worth it, but this is one hefty extension. Admittedly, 3rd base is a black hole of negative WAR these days, so I can’t argue with the decision. It just gives me a little pause, is all.
** (+1 star) Carlos Rocha (SP)
- $112 Mill through 2058.
- $28 Mill tam option in 2059 with a $7 Mill buyout.
- $28 Mill tam option in 2060 with a $7 Mill buyout.
- Speaking of brass balls! Rocha had Cleveland right where he wanted them and they paid big to keep him in town after his opt out. If I had my druthers I’d want this deal to be 2 years shorter, but when you’re up against the wall sometimes you don’t have the luxury of dictating terms.
* (No change) Kip Blue (SP)
- $14 Mill through 2057.
- $14 Mill player option in 2058.
- This guy is, 100%, beyond a shadow of a doubt, no question, with absolute certainty, definitely, categorically, no ifs ands or buts about it, indubitably going to decline his player option. Unless he doesn’t. But he’s totally gonna.
Colorado Rockies
*** (New) Luis Torres (SP)
- $30 Mill through 2058.
- Promised role: Starting pitcher.
- Torres came in and was a solid presence in the rotation. And you know what? It was enough to save my season and push me into the playoffs. Am I terrified of the number of homeruns he gives up? Sure! But when you’re desperate, sometimes you gotta pay sticker price.
* (No change) Sarsa-Dengal Robienayai (SP)
- $56 Mill through 2058.
- $28 Mill team option in 2059 with a $8 Mill buyout.
- $27.9 Mill team option in 2060 with a $8 Mill buyout.
- $1.5 Mill MVP award bonus.
- $1.5 Mill Cy Young award bonus.
- Promised role: Starting pitcher.
- Here’s a little math for you. By pitching over 180 innings and going to the All Star game in each year of his contract, plus two Cy Young wins, Robie has earned himself an $12 million buckaroos in incentives. And I’ve never been happier to pay out like a busted slot machine.
Detroit Tigers
*** (New) John Ross (1B)
- $24 Mill through 2058.
- $12 Mill team option in 2059 with a $3 Mill buyout.
- $12 Mill team option in 2060 with a $3 Mill buyout.
- Since his heyday with the White Sox, John Ross has always been somewhat disappointing. He has the kind of ratings which would imply that he should be a sure thing every year. And then sometimes you get a season where he hits half the number of homeruns he did the year before. For absolutely no reason! In my book, he’s one of the least reliable players in the league.
* (New) Jotaro Inagaki (SS)
- $100 Mill through 2061.
- He is at him peak value, right now. I think this is the year that Detroit has to make a call about whether or not its feasible to build a team around Inagaki. If not, then they should open up the bidding. However, I have a feeling that the AL Central is ripe for a realignment so maybe its time for Detroit to take their show at the division. Just one man’s opinion.
Houston Astros
*** (New) Armando Ferreira (SP)
- $26 Mill through 2058.
- $13 Mill team option in 2059 with a $3.25 Mill buyout.
- $13 Mill team option in 2060 with a $3.25 Mill buyout.
- Promised role: Starting Pitcher.
- This one hurts. Trading star pitcher like Walt Perez for two promising younger starters is a completely reasonable move. Unless one of the younger players gets becomes physically wrecked and the other retires well before his 20th birthday. But there’s just no way to predict that kind of thing. Sometimes it’s just your turn in the barrel.
* (New) Paul Burke (SP)
- $114 Mill through 2062.
- Promised role: Starting Pitcher.
- I wanna be in the Paul Burke business. And cousin, business is a-boomin’. I really like the front-loading of this contract too. A solid extension all around.
Kansas City Royals
**** (No change) Jose Contreras (SS)
- $15 Mill through 2057.
- Player opt out after 2057.
- $60 Mill through 2061.
- $15 Mill player option in 2062.
- Okay. I feel ready to cast judgement on Contreras. His ability to make contact is just a little too weak, his defense is a little too marginal, and his speed isn't used enough to be much value. All his stats are just a little bit lower than they should be for the kind of money he's receiving (and his ratings imply that he deserves). There are just a lot of little things that didn’t quite develop into the superstar that was promised.
*** (No change) Mario Medina (C)
- $74 Mill through 2058.
- $37 Mill team option in 2059 with a $9.25 Mill buyout.
- Look, I’m really torn here. On the one hand, I cannot argue with a 7 WAR year. On the other, this guy just slipped right past the line where it’s reasonable to call him a catcher anymore. Now he’s just a DH who likes to play dress-up.
** (No change) Bill Kachmar (RF)
- $52.6 Mill through 2058.
- Player opt out after 2058.
- $53.6 Mill through 2060.
- $26.3 Mill team option in 2061 with a $6.795 Mill buyout.
- $26.3 Mill team option in 2062 with a $6.795 Mill buyout.
- So, your favorite outfielder has become physically wrecked. Don’t worry! It’s not the end of the world. If he goes to DH immediately you can preserve his bat for years to come. But you have to do it quick before he tears something that doesn’t grow back.
Los Angeles Angels
*** (New) Naoki Masanobu (1B)
- $39 Mill through 2059.
- $13 Mill vesting option in 2060 after 525 PAs.
- Masanobu has one big benefit over Alec Carras; He can actually play first base. He’s had two strong years in a row, but they’re the first two strong years he’s ever had as a batter. One rarely discovers consistently impressive abilities in their mid-30s. At least, I didn’t. Maybe I’m projecting here.
Minnesota Twins
I see no albatrosses here. And unless Minnesota decides to extend Ramon Crus before his arbitration years are up, there might not be any for a while.
New York Yankees
***** (No change) Guilhelm Ciaravella (SS)
- $97.5 Mill through 2059.
- $32.5 Mill player option in 2060.
- Well, since being caught juicing his power has dropped slightly but not a tremendous amount. I’m still a really worried about seeing his bat degrade, but it’s mostly theoretical rather than evidence-based at this point.
**** (+1 star) Jorge Taylor (SS)
- $100 Mill through 2059.
- $30 Mill team option in 2060 with a $10 Mill buyout.
- $30 Mill team option in 2061 with a $10 Mill buyout.
- I’ve been doomsaying for some time now, but last year was officially the year that Jorge Taylor’s body just fell apart. The problem is there’s just no room at DH for the Yankees to keep him safe. So every year from now on is just going to be a crapshoot till he hits the big one that ends his career.
**** (+1 star) Kevin Lopez (SP)
- $60 Mill through 2057.
- $30 Mill player option in 2058.
- This isn’t big news. You give a star pitcher a massive payday and his skills are going to regress towards the end of his deal. He’s a back of the rotation guy these days, but there’s nobody’s to blame but old Father Time.
*** (No change) Felix Gomez (C)
- $60 Mill through 2060.
- Well, Gomez hit an for a nasty .206 average last year. And he still came out of it with 4.2 WAR. You can credit part of that to his power and strong defensive presence behind the plate. But it also goes to show how weak replacement level at the catcher position really is.
*** (+1 star) Ivan Gomez (1B)
- $58.04 Mill through 2060.
- $14.51 Mill team option in 2061 with a $5 Mill buyout.
- Wow. Carl Holmes is practicing first base this spring training. But where does that leave Gomez? Is this just a case of New York being extra prepared, or is Gomez the odd man out in the Bronx?
*** (+1 star) Jin-song Xiu (1B)
- $100 Mill through 2061.
- $20 Mill player option in 2062.
- It’s odd to describe a 43 homerun year as lackluster, but that’s kind of where I am with Xiu. Those power numbers hide an OPS that is a little underwhelming. That being said he has the capacity to put up a huge season every year, and that’s worth paying extra for.
*** (+1 star) Steve Bauer (3B)
- $48 Mill through 2058.
- $24 Mill team option in 2053 with a $6.5 Mill buyout.
- Yipe! Bauer’s never been a high average guy, but this was a sudden and precipitous drop below the Mendoza line. I think he’s likely to come back with another .250 season, but it’s worrisome.
Oakland Athletics
*** (No change) Cesar Perez (C)
- $22 Mill through 2057.
- $20 Mill player option in 2059.
- When you consider the comparative skills of other catchers in the league, it’s clear that Perez isn’t a bad player, relatively speaking. But this is a major expenditure for a small market team. The Yankees can afford this kind of move, but I’m not sure the A’s can.
*** (New) Hua-Ding Xie (SP)
- $56.559 Mill through 2061.
- Player opt out after 2061.
- $14.5 Mill through 2062.
- $14.5 Mill vesting option in 2063 after 160 IP.
- $14.5 Mill vesting option in 2064 after 160 IP.
- Promised position: Starting pitcher.
- Part of my trepidation about this contract is a personal thing that has nothing to do with Xie. I am terrified of letting guys with less than 6 movement pitch for the Rockies in Coors Field, so I immediately freak a little when I see them sign contracts on other teams. This is a contract I would never imagine giving out, but that shouldn’t mean all that much to the A’s.
** (New) Travis Olson (2B)
- $49.96 Mill through 2059.
- Player opt out after 2059.
- $19.32 Mill through 2060.
- $19.32 Mill player option in 2061.
- Olson reminds me of a John Beatty with a slightly worse bat and slightly better defensive ability. Not a bad guy to have around, but don’t pencil him in for an automatic 5+ WAR either.
Seattle Mariners
Some way, somehow, the Mariners are in a situation with no money guaranteed next year. Spoiler: The Blue Jays are too, so maybe its not that unique of a circumstance.
Tampa Bay Rays
**** (+1 star) Jim Chesney (3B)
- $44.26 Mill through 2058.
- If it wasn’t for his walks, he’d have had an absolutely miserable year in 2056. That being said, this is an awful lot of money for a guy whose main skill is OBP.
**** (No change) Katsuyuk Johnson (LF)
- $11.79 Mill through 2057.
- $10.79 Mill player option in 2058.
- Here’s the sad fact about Katsuyuk Johnson. I know what his stats say he can do against lefties. But he’s never actually hit that well against them, except for a few solid seasons in the early 2050s. This guy is fool’s gold.
** (No change) John Miller (SP)
- $38.12 Mill through 2059.
- $12.94 Mill player option in 2060.
- Promised role: Starting pitcher.
- Nothing much to see here. Miller isn’t going to blow you away, but he’d probably be making $20 million a year if he hit free agency. So, there’s nothing to complain about either.
Texas Rangers
*** (New) Hector Martinez (1B)
- $39 Mill through 2059.
- $13 Mill team option in 2060 with a $3.5 Mill buyout.
- $13 Mill team option in 2061 with a $3.5 Mill buyout.
- $1 Mill bonus after 550 PAs.
- Wow. It was awful kind of Texas to extend a guy who just suffered a 9 month injury setback. Especially when he seems to have aged out of playing second base. I’m interested to see where this one goes, because I don’t know what to expect from him.
* (No change) Brady Henderson (3B)
- $96 Mill through 2059.
- $32 Mill player option in 2060.
- Injuries led to an off year in 2056. But that doesn’t dampen my enthusiasm for him much. Much like the ShamWow, my enthusiasm is absorbent but easily drained of liquid, thus never damp. I don’t think this metaphor works. But watch the ShamWow video anyway.
* (No change) Edward Boer (SP)
- $24 Mill through 2058.
- $11 Mill in team option 2059 with a $3.25 Mill buyout.
- $11 Mill in team option 2060 with a $3.25 Mill buyout.
- Promised role: Starting pitcher.
- Consistency is what I value most in a player, but it’s the least interesting thing to write about. Hence, the abrupt end of this paragraph.
* (New) Pete Gawley (C)
- $76 Mill through 2059.
- $24 Mill team option in 2060 with a $6.5 Mill buyout.
- $24 Mill team option in 2061 with a $6.5 Mill buyout.
- $2.5 Mill MVP award bonus.
- Since Mario Medina can only vaguely even be called a catcher anymore, Gawley’s now the best catcher in the PBL. So you gotta give him the money. There’s just no choice here.
Toronto Blue Jays
The entire Jays payroll is $20.3 Million dollars this year. However, with arbitration it might balloon to an unfathomable $30.1 Million in 2058. WHO WILL STOP THIS RUNAWAY SPENDING?