2056 PBL Playoff Odds
Sept 22, 2020 16:20:05 GMT -5
AstrosGM_Shane, Rich - Former GM, and 2 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Sept 22, 2020 16:20:05 GMT -5
First, all of the odds (playoff etc) are from me feeding team qualities (based on my preseason forecasts and adjusted for performance to date) and running five thousand dumb simulations of the season and then seeing who made the playoffs.
So. Here's the format of the info:
Team (Estimated Quality): Record, Playoff Odds (playoff Odds change), Bye Odds, Estimated Wins, Performance to Date
Estimated Quality and Performance to Date are both WAR Rating (Team WAR's standard deviation from the mean, where 0 is totally average, +1/-1 is very good / bad and +2/-2 is historically good / bad). Estimated Quality is a blend of the preseason forecast and performance to date, while Performance to Date is the WAR Rating from the season only. So EQ is “How good we think this team is overall” and PTD is “Here’s how they’ve played so far”.
So for an example:
New York Mets (-0.16): 7-5 record, 46.9% (+9.1%) playoff, 2.3% bye, 80.6 wins, +0.83 PTD
You should read: The Mets are estimated to be a slightly below average team, but are 7-5, have a 47% chance at the playoffs (9.1% better than the last time the numbers were run), a 2.3% chance at a bye, are expected to win 80.6 games overall and are, so far in the season, playing quite well.
Anyhow. Here goes nothing:
AL Edition - Current as of 6/26/56
I’m rolling out a fun new tool: the Pennant odds calculator. Basically, it takes the existing team ratings and playoff odds, and then uses them to calculate the chance of them advancing to subsequent rounds based on the chances of winning a best of whatever series with the most likely teams to run up against. It’s obviously only as good as the ratings that feed it, and the math is a little fuzzy, but it’s still fun. It is *not* adjusted for playoffs (as far as front-loaded rotations and whatnot).
AL East:
New York Yankees (+0.31): 47-28 record, 99.8% (-0.1%) playoffs, 47.9% bye, 92.9 wins, +0.03 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-0.46): 32-43 record, 0.2% (+0.2%) playoffs, 0% bye, 72.6 wins, -0.36 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-1.85): 29-46 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 60.0 wins, -1.34 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-1.50): 27-48 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 59.8 wins, -1.91 PTD
The Yankees honestly played fairly badly in the last three weeks, but still somehow came out with an 11-8 record. Their 11 wins were by a combined 20 runs, but their 8 losses were by 47 runs. So their run differential over the 19 games was -27, and they won 11 of those 19. Granted, the Yankees have a good bullpen which gives them better odds in one-run games, but they are a comical 18-6 in one-run games. A little of that is skill - most of it is luck. The Yankees to date have an actually league average WAR, which isn’t consistent with their record at all. If they split their one-run games evenly they’d be 41-34, which is still higher than you’d expect given their WAR, but much closer to their real ability. Their weak performance has opened a microscopic window for the Red Sox to challenge from.
AL Central:
Detroit Tigers (+0.30): 46-29 record, 73.5% (+34.3%) playoffs, 30.8% bye, 91.8 wins, +1.04 PTD
Chicago White Sox (+0.38): 43-32 record, 52.8% (-17.3%) playoffs, 17.7% bye, 89.4. wins, +0.22 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.31): 37-38 record, 8.5% (+3.2%) playoffs, 1.6% bye, 82.9 wins, +0.07 PTD
Minnesota Twins (-0.05): 33-42 record, 0.3% (-3.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 76.4 wins, -0.37 PTD
I never thought I’d see Detroit on top of the division like this. I mean, all things are possible of course, but it’s still nuts. Are they actually this good? Of course not. But they’re sure as heck playing like it. At the intersection of Detroit playing really well, having a three-game lead on the White Sox and the Sox actually not doing great, and Detroit has a really good shot at the playoffs. Just remember Baltimore last year (whose roster makeup was substantially similar to this one). Sometimes teams just play out of their minds for a while, but that doesn’t mean it’ll keep up. The White Sox went 9-10 over the last three weeks, and didn’t play particularly well doing it. At this point they’re playing slightly above-average ball and my sheet doesn’t have a ton of faith in them running down the Tigers. The Indians went on a 13-6 tear, winning five of their six series, taking 2 of 3 from the Reds, Rockies and Mariners, taking 3 of 4 from the White Sox and sweeping the Warhounds. Their run differentials weren’t super-impressive, but their improved record has kept the playoff window open for them a bit. The Twins went 8-11 and are playing all-around poor ball. This doesn’t look like their season.
AL West:
Los Angeles Angels (-0.41): 40-35 record, 48.8% (+13.1%) playoffs, 1.1% bye, 81.0 wins, -0.30 PTD
Colorado Rockies (+0.42): 34-41 record, 40.7% (-9.3%) playoffs, 0.6% bye, 80.6 wins, +0.22 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-0.76): 34-41 record, 1.7% (-5.4%) playoffs, 0% bye, 72.6 wins, -0.34 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-0.53): 31-44 record, 1.0% (-0.3%) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.1 wins, -0.58 PTD
Over the last three sims no team in the AL West had a winning record. The Angels . . . they’re playing below average ball yet are somehow 40-35, with a six game lead on the division. The Rockies are an above-average team, are playing above average, and yet are 34-41. My sheet is sure that the Rockies are the better team. But there’s only 87 games left and over those 87 games it thinks the Rockies are . . . 5.4 games better. That sounds great, except that the Angels are six games up. It’s still anyone’s game. The scary thing is that the Angels have this lead *after* trading Jaime Mejia. But will the lead hold once Duane Hansen comes back for Colorado? If the Angels need extra firepower they can trade me Sato - trading away a stud worked last time . . . The Mariners are playing respectably poor ball, but because of how wacky the AL West is this year, they still have a shot at pulling this off (though their 6-13 set of sims didn’t help).
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.77): 48-27 record, 99.8% (+0.2%) playoffs, 80.9% bye, 103.9 wins, +1.94 PTD
Kansas City Royals (+0.92): 48-27 record, 96.4% (+3.3%) playoffs, 17.5% bye, 98.1 wins, +1.11 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.87): 41-34 record, 60.8% (-19.1%) playoffs, 1.0% bye, 93.3 wins, +0.95 PTD
Houston Astros (+0.49): 38-37 record, 14.7% (+0.3%) playoffs, 0% bye, 85.2 wins, -0.11 PTD
Texas went a blistering 12-7 over the last three sims which got them . . . nothing against Kansas City who also went 12-7. The Rangers, however, are playing their butts off, now leading the PBL in WAR. That they only have an 81% shot at a bye is a tribute to how loaded their division is. The Royals continue to play at a very high level, keeping pace with the Rangers. My sheet expects them to finish with the 2nd best record in the AL, five games ahead of the next closest team which will earn them . . . a Wild Card spot. Welcome to the AL South. Speaking of which, Tampa Bay is forecast to have the 3rd best record in the AL. Only one team (outside their division) is playing better than them so far this season, and the Tigers are unlikely to keep that up. The Rays went 8-11 over these last three sims which now puts them seven games out on the division. It’s interesting - how can the Rays be forecast with the 3rd best record in the AL *and* only have a 61% playoff shot? Well, the problem is that their 93 wins gives them about a 2% chance of winning the division. So they have to hold off everyone else. Their threats? The Tigers/White Sox and the Astros. The Rays are the best of those teams, but all it takes is one of them to go nuts . . . It’s hard out there for a . . . in the AL South. And Houston? They actually went 11-8, put up some good WAR and haven’t actually dropped in Playoff Odds. They’re not a favorite anymore, but they have a shot.
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, New York Yankees
Division Winners: Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels
Wild Cards: Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays
Bubble Teams (in descending order): Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians, Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 91.5 wins
Pennant Odds:
Texas Rangers: 43.9%
Kansas City Royals: 15.5%
New York Yankees: 11.0%
Tampa Bay Rays: 8.2%
Detroit Tigers: 8.0%
Chicago White Sox: 5.7%
Colorado Rockies: 3.5%
Los Angeles Angels: 1.7%
Houston Astros: 1.4%
Cleveland Indians: 0.8%
I find this so interesting. On one hand the Rangers, the clear best team in the AL, have a massive chance to win. At the same time, it’s more likely that *someone* will beat them. And note that the Yankees, despite my sheet not thinking much of them, have a high chance, purely on account of their high record positioning them optimally to make a run in the playoffs. And even though the Angels are considered more likely to make the playoffs than the Rockies, the Rockies are twice as likely to win the Pennant. Why? Because the Rockies are better, or so the theory goes. I love this stuff.
NL Edition - 6/12/56
NL East:
New York Mets (+0.19): 38-24 record, 78.1% (+17.1%) playoff, 1.6% bye, 89.9 wins, +0.05 PTD
Philadelphia Phillies (+0.02): 36-26 record, 48.7% (-17.2%) playoff, 0.2% bye, 86.6 wins, +0.01 PTD
Montreal Expos (-0.92): 28-34 record, 0.1% (-0.1%) playoff, 0% bye, 71.1 wins, -0.02 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.57): 22-40 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 60.0 wins, -0.89 PTD
This division has some of the weirdest results - no division has less of a gap between their top WAR team and their bottom WAR team than the NL East. However, the wins aren’t falling in line with WAR. The Mets and Phillies are both putting up completely average WAR numbers but, somehow, keep winning at a high clip (they are 1st and 4th in overperforming their WAR, respectively). The Mets have gone 17-8 over the last month and created a two-game lead over the Phillies, who have only gone 14-11. Neither team is respected much by my sheets - both their preseason forecasts and WAR to date are about average, but their records (3rd and 6th in the NL) do put them in a pretty good position for the playoffs. However, because of the low Estimated Quality for both teams, they’re being given relatively low odds on winning the Pennant. Montreal . . . they have 0.18 WAR less than Philly and 0.46 WAR less than the Mets, yet somehow have 8 and 10 wins less than those two teams. I’m not saying that Montreal is secretly really good - they’re not. But objectively they’ve played exactly as well as the top teams in their division and it’s just the arbitrariness of the RNG that’s having them underperform their WAR at the same time that the Mets and Phillies are going so nuts.
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+2.25): 38-24 record, 100% playoffs, 97.2% bye, 106.2 wins, +2.07 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.12): 31-31 record, 6.9% (-24.4%) playoffs, 0% bye, 80.4 wins, -0.09 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-1.01): 24-38 record, 0% (-0.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 66.4 wins, -1.23 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.63): 19-43 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 56.5 wins, -1.66 PTD
Milwaukee had a really rough month, going only 12-13. Bizarrely, their WAR Rating didn’t actually drop that much, and they still sit well ahead of the rest of the league in WAR, Base Runs and Run Differential. And the sheet, predictably, thinks very well of their chances in the playoffs. Of course, they probably ought to try winning some games if they’re going to make any of this happen - their bye odds are no longer 100%. The Cubs struggled with a rough last month, going 11-14 and seeing their WAR drop below average. They’re currently on pace for 80-81 wins which is fine, but the playoffs are looking increasingly unlikely. The Reds are swan-diving hard and the Cardinals, despite actually playing decently over the last month, didn’t see much of an improvement to their record.
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.67): 40-22 record, 100% (+0.1%) playoffs, 83.1% bye, 103.6 wins, +1.55 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+0.80): 29-33 record, 35.4% (-29.0%) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 85.7 wins, +0.25 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (-0.17): 34-28 record, 19.7% (+10.4%) playoffs, 0% bye, 83.1 wins, +0.29 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.81): 27-35 record, 0% (-1.8%) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.0 wins, -0.99 PTD
San Diego continues to play at a high level, putting up excellent WAR and keeping a good record, going 14-11 over the last four sims. However, their lock on a bye has loosened on account of Washington’s excellent play to date. The Giants had a decent month, going 13-12 with above average WAR, but given their pre-existing record hole, their playoff odds have plummeted. They’re still expected to finish in the high 80s, but they’re running out of time to turn things around. The Dodgers currently enjoy a five game lead over the Giants (helped by a 16-9 month) but they honestly aren’t playing that well - their WAR is not much better than the Giants’. Their weaker roster is expected to fade down the stretch, but if they can keep this up they have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.
NL South:
Washington Nationals (+0.92): 39-23 record, 97.1% (+13.6%) playoffs, 14.5% bye, 96.6 wins, +0.98 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.84): 37-25 record, 93.0% (+48.6%) playoffs, 8.2% bye, 94.0 wins, +1.09 PTD
Miami Marlins (+0.36): 30-32 record, 22.2% (-10.4%) playoffs, 0% bye, 83.3 wins, +0.26 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.83): 21-41 record, 0% (-0.4%) playoffs, 0% bye, 64.9 wins, -1.61 PTD
Washington is doing their damndest to wreck the Brewers/Padres two-team race in the NL. They went an astounding 19-6 over the last four sims. Their WAR to date is simply not comparable to the Padres’ or Brewers’, but their record is so good that they still have a decent shot at a bye. The Braves’ have the misfortune of being in the same division as the Nats - the Braves also went 19-6, yet somehow gained no ground on Washington. However, they’ve almost locked down a playoff spot and even have a chance of landing a bye. The Marlins just can’t catch a break. They’re playing decent ball but are stuck below average (despite a 13-12 month) and are quickly running out of time to make a move for the playoffs.
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
Division Winners: Washington Nationals, New York Mets
Wild Card Teams: Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants
Bubble Teams (in descending order): Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 88.8 games
AL Edition - 6/5/56
AL East:
New York Yankees (+0.55): 36-20 record, 99.9% (+0.6%) playoffs, 60.3% bye, 94.0 wins, +0.42 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-0.43): 24-32 record, 0.0% (-0.6%) playoffs, 0% bye, 72.9 wins, -0.27 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-1.28): 19-37 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 61.8 wins, -1.74 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-1.94): 21-35 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 58.4 wins, -1.37 PTD
The Yankees keep winning at a high rate (13-6) even though they’re actually not playing particularly well. +0.42 is still above average, but it’s hardly dominant. At the same time, given the fact that all the top teams not in the AL South (which can only send one bye team) are struggling, the Yankees are looking increasingly likely to win that second bye. Boston is secretly playing close to average ball, but you wouldn’t guess it from their record.
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (+0.43): 34-22 record, 70.1% (+7.5%) playoffs, 28.5% bye, 91.0 wins, +0.25 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-0.02): 34-22 record, 39.2% (+27.4%) playoffs, 8.7% bye, 87.3 wins, +0.80 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.32): 24-32 record, 5.3% (-32.5%) playoffs, 0.6% bye, 80.1 wins, -0.01 PTD
Minnesota Twins (+0.15): 25-31 record, 4.0% (-24.7%) playoffs, 0.7% bye, 79.7 wins, -0.12 PTD
The White Sox aren’t playing very well, though you wouldn’t know it from looking at their record. Their WAR Rating so far is only +0.25, which is definitely above average but not by a ton. In spite of this, they’re winning game at a very solid rate, overperforming their WAR by the 5th highest rate in the league. At the intersection of a strong record and the best Estimated Quality in the division, the White Sox are in a pretty good position. The Tigers have been a revelation, playing great ball all year (4th highest WAR in the AL so far). Are they actually this good? Almost certainly not. But at this rate, even if they go 500 the rest of the way they still finish with 87 wins. Whether or not Detroit is this good, with their record they’re a legitimate playoff threat. Speaking of everything going awfully, how about Cleveland? They have completely average WAR and a solid roster, but somehow cannot win games, going 6-13 over the last three sims. They are underperforming their WAR by the 3rd most in the league. Whatever magic they used to win the World Series last year has definitely sling-shotted back against them. And the Twins . . . I wouldn’t have picked them to be last in the division. They had as bad a three sims as the Indians and they’re playing worse. They’re still an above average team . . . it just doesn’t seem to be helping them much.
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+0.48): 25-31 record, 50.0% (-27.5%) playoffs, 2.0% bye, 82.4 wins, +0.26 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (-0.48): 31-25 record, 35.7% (+28.8%) playoffs, 1.2% bye, 80.5 wins, -0.40 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-0.78): 28-28 record, 7.1% (+5.8%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 75.0 wins, -0.20 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-0.54): 22-34 record, 1.3% (-0.4%) playoffs, 0% bye, 70.9 wins, -0.67 PTD
Colorado . . . it’s not that they’re playing badly. They have the same WAR as the White Sox, and they definitely have the best team in the AL West. Yet, somehow, they keep finding ways to lose (underperfoming their WAR by the 2nd most in the league). In the last three sims they held their own against weak teams, but went 1-2 against the Yankees, Phillies and Mets, and went 1-3 against the Angels. A 9-10 set of sims isn’t awful, and if the rest of the division were struggling too, it wouldn’t be too bad. But given that the Rockies have now generously spotted their opponents a 6-game lead, they would be well advised to start winning. The Angels went 15-4 over the last three weeks. It wasn’t against a dominant string of opponents: Pittsburgh, Boston, Baltimore, Toronto along with the Rockies and Phillies isn’t a hard run. But 15-4 against anyone is a pretty big deal. The funny part is, they’re not actually playing that well. Their 15 wins include six one-run games and three two-run games - they didn’t go 15-4 because they dominated, they went 15-4 mostly because of luck. It still counts. And now, with a 31-25 record, they have a decent chance to topple Colorado off the division. Note that the sheet isn’t considering the Mejia trade at all. Seattle is playing pretty decent ball for them historically (-0.20 isn’t bad, but it’s notably better than the Angels) and they have an average record. Normally this wouldn’t be much of a cause for celebration, but between the Rockies’ inability to win, and the Angels’ inability to play well, the Mariners have an actual shot.
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.64): 36-20 record, 99.6% (+0.2%) playoffs, 77.4% bye, 103.1 wins, +1.86 PTD
Kansas City Royals (+0.85): 36-20 record, 93.1% (+38.0%) playoffs, 14.2% bye, 96.5 wins, +1.11 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.83): 33-23 record, 79.9% (-1.3%) playoffs, 5.8% bye, 93.3 wins, +0.96 PTD
Houston Astros (+0.48): 27-29 record, 14.4% (-13.7%) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 84.5 wins, -0.43 PTD
Ha! Ha! Texas went 11-8 over a three-week sim! Who’s laughing now Texas!? Who’s laughing now!?
Seriously though, Texas somehow was projected to be the best team in the AL, and yet is outperforming their forecast. And yet, their odds at a bye have actually dropped, thanks to our next team. Kansas City had an absolutely murderous 15-4 set of sims against the following: Milwaukee, Cleveland, Minnesota, the White Sox, Texas and Cincinnati. That’s a really good group of teams to go 15-4 against. They now have the second highest WAR in the AL and tied for the best record. The Royals are looking really good right now. The Rays . . . last year they won 101 games and got the wild card because they were behind the Rangers. No doubt they were hoping for a different result this year. So far they’re playing like gangbusters, having the 3rd best WAR in the AL, on pace for a 93 win season and they’re behind . . . two teams in the division. I don’t know what Tampa did to the baseball gods, but they should apologize. And Houston. Upside, they went 10-9, which is above 500. Downside, they’re still not playing well. Double downside, their division seems to contain three of the top three teams in the AL. Aside from that they’re doing great.
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, New York Yankees
Division Winners: Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies
Wild Cards: Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays
Bubble Teams (in descending order): Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Indians, Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 91.8 wins
Current as of 5/15/56
AL East:
New York Yankees (+0.67): 23-14 record, 99.3% (+4.3%) playoffs, 49.1% bye, 92.6 wins, +0.73 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-0.54): 16-21 record, 0.7% (-3.8%) playoffs, 0% bye, 73.8 wins, -0.51 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-1.10): 14-23 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 66.3 wins, -1.62 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-1.96): 15-22 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 59.1 wins, -1.21 PTD
The haves and have nots continue increasing their distance. The Yankees put together a very nice pair of sims, mostly beating on weak teams but also featuring a 2-1 win over the White Sox (with a 24-13 run differential). It’s not that the Yankees are looking dominant - they’re playing at about the level expected in the preseason forecast (well, slightly better), which is very good but not great. The thing really working to their advantage is that their competitors are struggling. The Rockies, while looking more stable, aren’t doing well, and the White Sox had a bad pair of sims. Which leaves the Yankees as the second bye team by default. Boston’s relatively nice start to their season went off the rails on the heels of a bad pair of sims (featuring a 2-5 record against the Blue Jays and Mariners). They’re still playing not awfully, but their playoff odds are plummeting. Baltimore is playing worse than expected, Toronto is playing much better than expected (3-3 split against the Rockies and Phillies this last sim) but both are looking around 60-65 wins, which isn’t likely to disrupt the playoff picture much.
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (+0.53): 22-15 record, 62.6% (-11.0%) playoffs, 25.5% bye, 90.2 wins, +0.47 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.63): 18-19 record, 38.8% (+12.7%) playoffs, 11.6% bye, 87.2 wins, +0.70 PTD
Minnesota Twins (+0.40): 19-18 record, 28.7% (-10.5%) playoffs, 8.7% bye, 85.9 wins, +0.45 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-0.34): 22-15 record, 11.8% (+9.4%) playoffs, 2.1% bye, 81.8 wins, +0.39 PTD
Chicago’s hot start ended with a bang, going 6-7 and playing all-around bad ball. They’re still a good team and they still have a good record, but they’re suddenly looking vulnerable (especially as regards the bye). Cleveland didn’t have a particularly dominant pair of sims, but did go 7-6 (including a sweep of the Astros) and played quite well. Despite being last in the division they have the best WAR of the group so far (if not by a lot), though most of their playoff odds improvement comes from Chicago struggling and less from Cleveland dominating. The Twins had a rough set of sims, going 6-7 but suffering a brutal sweep at the hands of the Rays (3-19 run differential). They’re still good, they’re still in it, the AL Central is just a tough division to be above average in. And the Tigers . . . are they for real? It depends. If you mean, “Are they actually an above average team?” the answer, to date, is yes. They have the 8th highest WAR in the AL (though 4th in their own division), but to date both WAR and record suggest that they’re above average. If you mean, “Are they a legitimate 90+ win team (as their pace currently is for 96 wins)” the answer is likely no. Their WAR is good but not that good, and teams that outperform their preseason forecast by this much generally regress. They’re expected to finish at 82 wins, which would be the franchise’s highest total since 2030. And they could finish higher. But I don’t buy that they’re a serious playoff contender. Yet.
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+0.53): 16-21 record, 87.5% (+8.6%) playoffs, 5.5% bye, 84.2 wins, +0.31 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (-0.56): 16-21 record, 6.9% (-7.6%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 73.6 wins, -0.66 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-0.69): 13-24 record, 1.7% () playoffs, 0% bye, 69.3 wins, -1.23 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.18): 17-20 record, 1.3% (-0.5%) playoffs, 0% bye, 68.6 wins, -1.08 PTD
The Rockies bounce back (within reason) with an 8-5 pair of sims. Their quality of opponent wasn’t too hot, but they did take 2 of 3 from the Rays. They’re still underperforming their WAR by more than anyone (by a lot), given that they’re playing above average ball and are only 16-21. That said, their biggest threat is one of the other teams in the division getting hot and, to date, that hasn’t happened. The Angels continue playing badly, and their chances of beating the Rockies to the end is looking increasingly unlikely. The Athletics are playing far worse than expected and the Mariners are playing about as badly as expected (though with a better record).
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.56): 25-12 record, 99.4% (+3.6%) playoffs, 86.7% bye, 103.2 wins, +1.90 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.67): 24-13 record, 81.2% (+5.9%) playoffs, 7.6% bye, 93.6 wins, +0.65 PTD
Kansas City Royals (+0.60): 21-16 record, 55.1% (+28.8%) playoffs, 2.8% bye, 89.9 wins, +0.62 PTD
Houston Astros (+0.62): 17-20 record, 28.1% (-36.2%) playoffs, 0.4% bye, 86.1 wins, -0.56 PTD
Texas is Andre the Gianting all the other teams in the AL. Their WAR is way, way ahead of everyone else and, despite only being one game up on the Rays, they’re expected to finish 9.6 games higher. The Rangers seem like the best team in the AL by a mile. The Rays have the misfortune of being in the Rangers’ division - it stinks to be expected to win 94 games and still only have an 8% shot at the bye. They had a really rough set of sims (6-7 against good competition in the Rockies, Rangers, Twins and Marlins) but they’re still playing like a very good team. The Royals went 10-3 over these last sims and are increasingly looking very good. This shouldn’t be a surprise, they’ve been this good roster-wise for years. But it’s nevertheless nice to see them competing. And the Astros . . . Last time the story was “they’re playing badly, but at least they’re winning.” One of those two things changed, and it wasn’t the playing badly. Now they’re swan-diving to the bottom of the division and have a less than ⅓ chance of making the playoffs. They’re not out of it by any means, but this is *not* a division where you can get away with this sort of thing.
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, New York Yankees
Division Winners: Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies
Wild Cards: Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals
Bubble Teams (in descending order): Cleveland Indians, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 90.9 wins
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies (+0.22): 22-15 record, 65.5% (-8.9%) playoff, 0.7% bye, 87.1 wins, +0.57 PTD
New York Mets (+0.21): 21-16 record, 61.0% (+24.9%) playoff, 0.6% bye, 86.1 wins, +0.01 PTD
Montreal Expos (-1.30): 17-20 record, 0.2% (+0.1%) playoff, 0% bye, 67.5 wins, -0.41 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.49): 16-21 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 64.6 wins, -0.18 PTD
Philadelphia continues to play at a high level, but loses playoff ground, more because of the Mets than because of any struggles the Phillies are having. The Mets went 10-3, sweeping the Reds and Red Sox and taking 2 of 3 from the Padres and find themselves only a game out. They’re not actually playing particularly well (per their average WAR so far) but given that my sheet thinks that their roster is a little better than Philadelphia’s it’s expected to be a dead heat for the division. And there’s actually a 25% chance of an NL East team making the wild card, which hasn’t happened in a while. The Expos continue to play far better than expected, staying within five games of the lead in the division. They’re not expected to challenge, but they’re not doing too badly. The Pirates are playing even better, with WAR that’s almost league average. I don’t know how long they can keep it up but it’s going well so far.
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+2.32): 26-11 record, 100% playoffs, 100% bye, 111.6 wins, +2.33 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.00): 20-17 record, 31.3% (+23.8%) playoffs, 0% bye, 83.1 wins, +0.30 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.75): 17-20 record, 0.7% (-1.0%) playoffs, 0% bye, 72.8 wins, -0.74 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.72): 11-26 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 57.4 wins, -2.11 PTD
The Brewers are playing at an extremely high level. The Cubs had a great pair of sims, going 9-4 and playing at a very high level. Suddenly, the Cubs are an above-average team with an above-average record with a legitimate shot at the playoffs. The Reds so far are a below average metronome and the Cardinals are not having a good year.
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.64): 26-11 record, 99.9% (-%) playoffs, 99.6% bye, 105.0 wins, +1.54 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+0.89): 16-21 record, 64.4% (-21.1%) playoffs, 0.9% bye, 87.6 wins, +0.08 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (-0.29): 18-19 record, 9.3% (+3.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 78.2 wins, +0.32 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.68): 17-20 record, 1.8% (+1.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 73.5 wins, -0.85 PTD
The Padres, Rangers and Brewers are being pretty boring by playing exactly as expected, or better. The Padres have locked up the second bye (or the first bye quite possibly). The Giants . . . they’re not playing badly per se. Their record may look bad but they’re still playing like a 500 team. They’re very lucky that the 3-6 teams in the NL are collectively struggling right now, because in the AL they’d be at more like 45% playoff odds. They can certainly turn it around, but it certainly isn’t going ideally so far. The Dodgers are playing solid ball (even if not reflected in their record) and have an outside shot at a playoff spot if this keeps up. Arizona is overperforming their WAR, and could squeak into the playoffs if everything lined up just right.
NL South:
Washington Nationals (+0.79): 20-17 record, 83.5% (-6.0%) playoffs, 2.5% bye, 90.7 wins, +0.76 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.42): 18-19 record, 44.4% (-16.1%) playoffs, 0.6% bye, 85.2 wins, +0.17 PTD
Miami Marlins (+0.39): 17-20 record, 32.6% (-10.8%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 84.5 wins, +0.30 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.51): 12-25 record, 0.4% (-3.3%) playoffs, 0% bye, 70.1 wins, -1.47 PTD
The Nats swept the Braves, and proceeded to get one win out of series against the Brewers, Diamondbacks and Royals. They’re still the best team in their division, but their lead in quality and wins is not insurmountable. The Braves in the meantime are having a weirdly down year. Their WAR is barely above average and their record is below 500. An expectation of 85 wins is not what you want if the playoffs are your goal. The Marlins are playing better than the Braves, but are considered to have the slightly weaker roster (probably not after the Mejia trade) and so are expected to finish slightly behind, but they still have a very legitimate shot at things. The Warhounds . . . the best thing I can say is that, given their pattern, their due for a very hot two sims coming up.
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
Division Winners: Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies
Wild Card Teams: San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves
Bubble Teams (in descending order): New York Mets, Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 87.0 games (!!!)
Current as of 5/1/56
AL East:
New York Yankees (+0.62): 15-9 record, 95.0% (+1.1%) playoffs, 32.5% bye, 91.5 wins, +0.64 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-0.44): 12-12 record, 4.5% (-0.6%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 77.0 wins, -0.16 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-1.13): 9-15 record, 0% (-1.0%) playoffs, 0% bye, 66.4 wins, -2.06 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-2.05): 9-15 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 56.5 wins, -1.43 PTD
More of the same in the AL East. Truthfully, most of the teams here didn’t play particularly well over the last two weeks. The Yankees are on cruise control for the division with a respectable shot at a bye. The Red Sox are managing to stay at 500, despite not impressing with their overall performance. The Orioles are really struggling right now, and the Blue Jays, though not playing well, are outperforming their forecast.
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (+0.66): 16-8 record, 73.6% (+2.1%) playoffs, 43.8% bye, 92.9 wins, +1.02 PTD
Minnesota Twins (+0.51): 13-11 record, 39.2% (+18.8%) playoffs, 15.0% bye, 88.3 wins, +0.96 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.54): 11-13 record, 26.1% (-15.2%) playoffs, 8.2% bye, 86.6 wins, +0.44 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-0.48): 14-10 record, 2.4% (+0.3%) playoffs, 0.5% bye, 78.6 wins, +0.13 PTD
Only one division in the PBL has all four teams with above average WAR, and that’s the AL Central. Chicago is doing their Chicago thing, smoking their preseason forecast like a victory cigar while they improve their playoff and bye odds. That their playoff odds only went up 2% should suggest just how tight this division is becoming. The Twins had an insane two weeks (the three games against the Orioles where they outscored their opposition 34-0 may have contributed) and jumped their playoff odds by more than anyone in the AL. My sheet still thinks they’re the 3rd best team in the division, but they’re in a good position. The Indians just can’t catch a break. They’re playing well, but it isn’t turning into wins. They’re underperforming their WAR by the 5th most in the league, and they’re underperforming their Base Runs by the most in the league. They’re still expected to finish well (because of their quality play and roster) but now they’re last in their division, which so far is the most competitive in the league. It’s not an ideal position. The Tigers are actually playing quite nicely, throwing up above average WAR and going 14-10. My sheet is still quite skeptical of their quality, but they’re approaching an estimated wins above 80, which is a place the Tigers haven’t been in . . . a long time.
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+0.48): 9-15 record, 78.9% (-12.9%) playoffs, 6.7% bye, 83.9 wins, +0.08 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (-0.57): 12-12 record, 14.5% (+10.1%) playoffs, 0.3% bye, 75.6 wins, -0.76 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.12): 12-12 record, 1.8% (+0.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 69.6 wins, -0.91 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-0.67): 7-17 record, 1.7% (-0.5%) playoffs, 0% bye, 69.5 wins, -1.43 PTD
Speaking of teams that are underperforming like crazy, the Rockies are the team in the PBL underperforming their WAR by the most. Their WAR hasn’t been impressive mind you, only barely above average. But 9-15 is still far worse than you’d expect given that performance. While the components (9-15, average WAR, only 84 expected wins) looks bleak, they have one big thing going for them. And that’s that the rest of the division is all struggling. The Angels and the Mariners may be 12-12 but they’re both putting up quite below average WAR so far. So Colorado may be forecast low, but they’re still expected to win their division by 8 games. Oakland is in the same situation as the Angels, minus the good record. However, despite the fact that all three of these bottom teams are playing badly, Colorado’s struggles create a much greater window for playoff eligibility than would normally happen.
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.45): 15-9 record, 95.8% (+3.6) playoffs, 67.2% bye, 100.6 wins, +1.78 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.61): 18-6 record, 75.3% (+8.3%) playoffs, 18.0% bye, 94.4 wins, +0.47 PTD
Houston Astros (+0.83): 13-11 record, 64.3% (-16.0%) playoffs, 9.2% bye, 91.8 wins, -0.19 PTD
Kansas City Royals (+0.56): 11-13 record, 26.3% (+0.5%) playoffs, 1.7% bye, 86.8 wins, +0.52 PTD
Texas continues to throw up massive WARs, continuing to demonstrate that they are the best team in the AL. Yes, Tampa Bay is already up on them by five games, but in no metric (pythag, WAR or Base Runs) is Tampa Bay doing better than Texas. Texas is the only AL team expected to break 100 wins, and is the front-runner for just about everything. Tampa Bay has the best record in the PBL, but doesn’t have the WAR to back it up. They’re currently expected to have the 2nd best record in the AL but finish behind Texas (has that happened before)? Houston is still considered to be the 2nd best team in the AL, but they’re not playing like it. In fact, Houston has played below average ball through these first four weeks, and it isn’t helping that Tampa is winning games left and right. Houston is still considered to have a strong position for the wild card, but there are *a lot* of teams that could challenge them if they don’t get their act together. Kansas City put together a much better 2nd two weeks, and actually has the 2nd best WAR in the division. They’re expected to finish with 87 wins, which is strong, even if 4th in the AL South. Don’t count them out, anyone in this division could make a run.
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox
Division Winners: New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies
Wild Cards: Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros
Bubble Teams (in descending order): Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 92.0 wins (!!!!)
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies (+0.19): 15-9 record, 74.4% (-1.5%) playoff, 0.6% bye, 86.9 wins, +0.66 PTD
New York Mets (+0.14): 11-13 record, 36.1% (+10.5%) playoff, 0.1% bye, 82.2 wins, -0.33 PTD
Montreal Expos (-1.39): 11-13 record, 0.1% (-) playoff, 0% bye, 65.6 wins, -0.50 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.74): 8-16 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 58.9 wins, -0.71 PTD
Philadelphia continues to play at a high level, but only goes 6-6. Given that they lose some lead to the Mets, the Phillies’ playoff odds dropped slightly (given that there’s only about a 10% chance that the 2nd place team in the division makes the playoffs, winning the division is kind of key). The Mets have a solid set of sims, going 7-5 and pulling within increased striking distance of the Phillies. Both the Expos and Pirates are playing better than expected, though only the Expos can show it on their record.
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+2.18): 17-7 record, 100% playoffs, 100% bye, 110.5 wins, +2.04 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.15): 11-13 record, 8.5% (-4.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 79.1 wins, -0.16 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.70): 11-13 record, 1.7% (+0.9%) playoffs, 0% bye, 73.2 wins, -0.61 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.59): 6-18 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 58.4 wins, -1.95 PTD
The Brewers continue to play at a high level, averaging a fairly stupid 6.6 runs per game so far. The Cubs are consistently playing slightly below average ball, which doesn’t preclude anything but their shot at the playoffs is going to continue to diminish if it continues. The Reds are actually playing a little better than expected, and their playoff odds have increased from “almost no way” to “really unlikely”. The Cardinals are not having a good year.
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.63): 17-7 record, 99.9% (+0.6%) playoffs, 88.9% bye, 104.5 wins, +1.64 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+1.01): 12-12 record, 86.5% (-5.4%) playoffs, 5.1% bye, 92.8 wins, +0.33 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (-0.29): 11-13 record, 5.6% (+3.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 77.7 wins, +0.59 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.55): 10-14 record, 0.7% (-0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 73.7 wins, -0.50 PTD
The Padres are playing excellent ball right now and are looking like a guaranteed bye team. The Giants are struggling a bit. It’s not that they’re playing badly, they’re playing well (though with a slightly disappointing record). And they’re still forecast with the 4th best record at the end of the year. At the same time, given how much the loaded their already-good team in the offseason, a WR of +0.33 is a little disappointing. They’ve still got a lot of maneuvering room (almost an 8-game expected lead over the first team out) but they’ll want to start playing better. The Dodgers have actually been playing really good ball (+0.59 WAR Rating), but can’t seem to win games. If they can keep this level of play up, they are likely to challenge for a playoff spot before all is said and done. The Diamondbacks are playing solidly below-average ball.
NL South:
Washington Nationals (+0.85): 15-9 record, 89.5% (+3.4%) playoffs, 8.7% bye, 94.0 wins, +1.05 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.43): 13-11 record, 60.5% (+0.8%) playoffs, 1.8% bye, 87.5 wins, +0.15 PTD
Miami Marlins (+0.34): 11-13 record, 32.6% (-10.8%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 84.5 wins, +0.11 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.25): 9-15 record, 3.7% (+2.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 76.0 wins, -0.92 PTD
The Nationals are playing excellent ball, currently showing the #5 WAR in the PBL and a strong record. Their last two sims weren’t quite as generous win-wise, so they didn’t gain a ton of ground on their division, but they’re still clearly the front-runner. They’d have better bye odds if Milwaukee and San Diego weren’t playing so well. The Braves are only playing slightly above average so far and aren’t expected to finish above 90 wins, but given the struggles facing their competition (Marlins, Cubs, Warhounds and Mets) the Braves’ playoff odds really haven’t budged. The Marlins are playing pretty much like the Braves, only with two less wins. That two-game gap is the primary reason the Braves have a 28% higher playoff odds number - the Marlins could easily turn this around. The Warhounds had a decent pair of sims, going 8-4 on average WAR. They’re still an outside shot with everything but they’ve pulled themselves up from the pavement, which is an achievement in and of itself.
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
Division Winners: Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies
Wild Card Teams: San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves
Bubble Teams (in descending order): New York Mets, Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, Carolina Warhounds, Cincinnati Reds
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 88.2 games.
Current as of 4/17/56
AL East:
New York Yankees (+0.68): 7-5 record, 93.9% (--) playoffs, 31.7% bye, 90.6 wins, +1.03 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-0.42): 5-7 record, 5.1% (--) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 76.0 wins, +0.16 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-0.85): 5-7 record, 1.3% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.0 wins, -1.17 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-2.18): 5-7 record, 0% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 55.6 wins, -1.95 PTD
The AL East is going exactly the way you’d expect. The Yankees are playing solid ball, with a decent record, are on pace for 90 wins and with an extremely probable shot at winning the division but not getting a bye. The rest of the AL East is 5-7, but they’re playing quite differently. The Red Sox actually have above-average WAR and are currently forecast in the mid 70s for wins, which gives them an outside shot at the playoffs. Baltimore may be 5-7 but they’re playing quite badly (any WAR rating below -1 is pretty bad). And Toronto . . . well, at least they’re 5-7.
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (+0.61): 9-3 record, 71.5% (--) playoffs, 38.4% bye, 91.9 wins, +1.02 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.53): 5-7 record, 41.3% (--) playoffs, 11.0% bye, 86.9 wins, +0.34 PTD
Minnesota Twins (+0.28): 5-7 record, 20.0% (--) playoffs, 4.7% bye, 84.1 wins, -0.09 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-0.55): 7-5 record, 2.1% (--) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 76.4 wins, +0.09 PTD
The Chicago White Sox are doing what they usually do - making my forecast look bad. Their 9-3 record is unreliably high (still counts), but even their WAR Rating to date is quite good (+1.02) and at the intersection of those two things they’re actually expected to win 90+ games. They’re even the favorite to get that 2nd bye, but not by much. The Indians are playing decently but their record isn’t doing them any favors at 5-7. They’re still expected to finish in the high 80s but with the 2nd wildcard team in the AL averaging 91 wins, they’ll need to up their game. Minnesota has underwhelmed - they may be 5-7 but they’re only showing at an average WAR which has them finishing in the low 80s, though hardly out of the running. And the Tigers have actually been pretty good so far, going 7-5 and putting up above average WAR (if not by much). They’re still not expected to do much, but they’re slowly moving themselves from doormat into low-end spoiler territory. An interesting team to watch.
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+0.60): 6-6 record, 91.8% (--) playoffs, 21.8% bye, 88.8 wins, +0.58 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (-0.58): 5-7 record, 4.1% (--) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 74.1 wins, -1.04 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-0.53): 3-9 record, 2.2% (--) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 72.7 wins, -1.23 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.10): 7-5 record, 1.1% playoffs, 0.1% bye, 70.1 wins, -0.72 PTD
The Colorado Rockies are only 6-6, and the injury RNG is giving them the finger (probably Duane Hansen’s). But they’re playing at a solid if unimpressive level (+0.58 so far) and that plus their preseason forecast should be enough for 89 wins or so. Obviously my sheet isn’t taking into account Big Duane’s injury, but that shouldn’t cost more than a win or so. And Colorado’s biggest asset right now is their division. The Angels are 5-7, which isn’t bad, but their -1.04 WAR Rating so far is very disappointing for a team with as much upside as they have. The Athletics are playing even worse (-1.23 WR) and are 3-9, so despite their considerable roster talent they’re not looking particularly good so far. And the Mariners are actually doing fairly well, going 7-5 and showing a WAR rating of -0.72 (which is bad, but not awful). So the Mariners are actually the 2nd best team in the divisions so far, though their pessimistic preseason prediction really caps their forecast. If they can keep this up though . . .
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.31): 7-5 record, 92.2% (--) playoffs, 54.3% bye, 98.0 wins, +1.28 PTD
Houston Astros (+0.98): 7-5 record, 80.3% (--) playoffs, 22.8% bye, 94.2 wins, -0.02 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.62): 9-3 record, 67.0% (--) playoffs, 13.7% bye, 92.0 wins, +0.44 PTD
Kansas City Royals (+0.51): 4-8 record, 25.8% (--) playoffs, 1.9% bye, 85.7 wins, +0.22 PTD
Look at those teams in the AL South - even the worst of them is really good. The Rangers are 7-5, boasting a WR above +1 (one of three teams in the AL to do so) and expected to finish in the high 90s. You would expect such a team to have higher than a 92% playoff shot and a 54% bye shot, but in this division, merely being excellent only gets you so much. Houston had a pretty disappointing first two weeks. Granted, 7-5 is a fine record (and as good as the Rangers) but posting an average WAR isn’t what you want to see from a team forecast as the 2nd best team in the AL. They’re now expected to finish four games back from the Rangers, but are still the prohibitive favorite for a wild card spot. The Rays continue to punch above their weight (or maybe my weights are just wrong, who knows?) going 9-3 so far. But their WR (+0.44) doesn’t suggest that such a record is sustainable. The Rays have unquestionably improved their position, but they don’t yet look like the #2 team in the AL that they were last year. Kansas City continues to have everything going for them except, you know, winning games. They have a strong roster, a decent WR (+0.22) but 4-8 really screws them over as far as playoff odds. They still have a lot going for them, but their record is going to need to turn around. You know, before the final month of the season.
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox
Division Winners: New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies
Wild Cards: Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays
Bubble Teams (in descending order): Cleveland Indians, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 91.1 wins
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies (+0.14): 9-3 record, 75.9% (--) playoff, 1.1% bye, 86.4 wins, +0.70 PTD
New York Mets (+0.08): 4-8 record, 25.6% (--) playoff, 0.2% bye, 80.7 wins, -1.06 PTD
Montreal Expos (-1.43): 5-7 record, 0.1% (--) playoff, 0% bye, 64.4 wins, -0.17 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.78): 5-7 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 60.3 wins, -0.35 PTD
What!? The Phillies are overperforming their forecast! This has never happened before!! Seriously, they’re playing well (+0.7 isn’t, you know, barn-burning, but it’s quite good) and they’re 9-3 so far, so everything is coming up Millhouse. Their preseason forecast was pretty pessimistic, so they’re only forecast at 86 wins right now, but a 5-win lead and solid WAR still give them a 76% shot at the playoffs. The Mets on the other hand, are the literal opposite. Their record isn’t good (4-8) and their WR is quite bad at -1.06. The sheet still thinks the two are basically the same team, but the Mets weak start has cut their playoff odds in half. The Expos are actually playing decently (5-7 and -0.17 WR aren’t awesome, but they’re not awful either) but these would only be valuable in a season where the Phillies were struggling, which they aren’t. And the Pirates are continuing to overperform my sheet, also going 5-7 with a non-awful WAR. Neither are impressing, but both are playing decently.
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+2.17): 10-2 record, 100% (--) playoffs, 100% bye, 110.9 wins, +2.01 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.09): 6-6 record, 13.2% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 80.8 wins, +0.20 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.73): 5-7 record, 0.8% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 72.4 wins, -0.85 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.44): 4-8 record, 0% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 63.2 wins, -1.45 PTD
Well, the Brewers were pegged as the front-runner for pretty much everything and they haven’t disappointed, posting the best record, best run differential and highest WAR in the league. The Cubs are actually doing a solid job; they’re 6-6 and rolling a positive WR which sets them up to average a finish in the low 80s. This may not sound like much, but it wouldn’t take much for them to get hot and legitimate threaten for a playoff spot. The Reds aren’t having a great year so far, which shouldn’t be a big surprise given the fact that they rang in the new year by trading several of their best players (a trend that may well continue). The Cardinals are playing all-around badly, but this likely wasn’t going to be their year anyways.
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.61): 8-4 record, 99.3% (--) playoffs, 69.0% bye, 102.5 wins, +1.64 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+1.15): 7-5 record, 91.9% (--) playoffs, 18.5% bye, 96.1 wins, +0.70 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (-0.44): 5-7 record, 1.9% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 75.8 wins, +0.31 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.59): 5-7 record, 0.8% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 74.0 wins, -0.75 PTD
The Padres are up to their usual tricks, going 8-4, throwing up really high WAR and looking all around excellent (actually, the Padres’ go-to is to have the best WAR and roster in the league but be struggling for no reason, but we can’t have everything). The Giants . . . well, I can’t say they’re entirely disappointing. After all, they’re 7-5 and have the 4th best WAR in the league. At the same time, they were forecast as one of the top five teams in the PBL by a good margin and to date that isn’t happening. Still, compared to last year’s bizarro season, this is going pretty well. The Dodgers are actually playing decently (+0.31 WR) but it hasn’t hit their record, and their preseason forecast doesn’t think their roster has the staying power to compete this year (but it could be wrong). The Diamondbacks are having a solidly below-average season across the board, though there are worse things than finishing in the mid-70s.
NL South:
Washington Nationals (+0.88): 8-4 record, 86.2% (--) playoffs, 11.3% bye, 94.0 wins, +1.45 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.51): 7-5 record, 59.7% (--) playoffs, 2.3% bye, 88.8 wins, +0.44 PTD
Miami Marlins (+0.37): 7-5 record, 43.4% (--) playoffs, 1.7% bye, 87.1 wins, +0.09 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.31): 1-11 record, 1.0% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 73.3 wins, -1.85 PTD
Washington is on a tear so far, going 8-4 and posting the 3rd highest WAR in the league so far. They’re going to face some solid competition from their division, but they are nevertheless considered the front-runner at this point. The Braves have played well (7-5 and +0.44 WR) but in a way that’s consistent with a high 80’s finish, not last season’s mid-90s. They are not looking dominant, and they could face a serious challenge from the Marlins. But the good news for Atlanta is that, after the Marlins, there aren’t really other teams to challenge for that wild card spot without a fair amount of luck coming into it. The Marlins may be 7-5 but they aren’t playing that well (about average WAR) and so are considered to be a small underdog in the apparent two-team wildcard race (barring the Cubs going on a run). And the Warhounds . . . To be clear, the Warhounds are *not* a bad team. They have always had strong pitching and relatively weak hitting (with a few exceptions). But this year their bats have been outright awful. They have four batters hitting below 200, and three below 160. Put this all together and they’re 1-11 (which is an unlucky record, even as badly as they’ve played) and have the second worst WAR in the league. They are not this team. But the beginning of this season couldn’t have gone much worse for them.
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
Division Winners: Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies
Wild Card Teams: San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves
Bubble Teams (in descending order): Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, Carolina Warhounds
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 89.7 games.
So. Here's the format of the info:
Team (Estimated Quality): Record, Playoff Odds (playoff Odds change), Bye Odds, Estimated Wins, Performance to Date
Estimated Quality and Performance to Date are both WAR Rating (Team WAR's standard deviation from the mean, where 0 is totally average, +1/-1 is very good / bad and +2/-2 is historically good / bad). Estimated Quality is a blend of the preseason forecast and performance to date, while Performance to Date is the WAR Rating from the season only. So EQ is “How good we think this team is overall” and PTD is “Here’s how they’ve played so far”.
So for an example:
New York Mets (-0.16): 7-5 record, 46.9% (+9.1%) playoff, 2.3% bye, 80.6 wins, +0.83 PTD
You should read: The Mets are estimated to be a slightly below average team, but are 7-5, have a 47% chance at the playoffs (9.1% better than the last time the numbers were run), a 2.3% chance at a bye, are expected to win 80.6 games overall and are, so far in the season, playing quite well.
Anyhow. Here goes nothing:
AL Edition - Current as of 6/26/56
I’m rolling out a fun new tool: the Pennant odds calculator. Basically, it takes the existing team ratings and playoff odds, and then uses them to calculate the chance of them advancing to subsequent rounds based on the chances of winning a best of whatever series with the most likely teams to run up against. It’s obviously only as good as the ratings that feed it, and the math is a little fuzzy, but it’s still fun. It is *not* adjusted for playoffs (as far as front-loaded rotations and whatnot).
AL East:
New York Yankees (+0.31): 47-28 record, 99.8% (-0.1%) playoffs, 47.9% bye, 92.9 wins, +0.03 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-0.46): 32-43 record, 0.2% (+0.2%) playoffs, 0% bye, 72.6 wins, -0.36 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-1.85): 29-46 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 60.0 wins, -1.34 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-1.50): 27-48 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 59.8 wins, -1.91 PTD
The Yankees honestly played fairly badly in the last three weeks, but still somehow came out with an 11-8 record. Their 11 wins were by a combined 20 runs, but their 8 losses were by 47 runs. So their run differential over the 19 games was -27, and they won 11 of those 19. Granted, the Yankees have a good bullpen which gives them better odds in one-run games, but they are a comical 18-6 in one-run games. A little of that is skill - most of it is luck. The Yankees to date have an actually league average WAR, which isn’t consistent with their record at all. If they split their one-run games evenly they’d be 41-34, which is still higher than you’d expect given their WAR, but much closer to their real ability. Their weak performance has opened a microscopic window for the Red Sox to challenge from.
AL Central:
Detroit Tigers (+0.30): 46-29 record, 73.5% (+34.3%) playoffs, 30.8% bye, 91.8 wins, +1.04 PTD
Chicago White Sox (+0.38): 43-32 record, 52.8% (-17.3%) playoffs, 17.7% bye, 89.4. wins, +0.22 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.31): 37-38 record, 8.5% (+3.2%) playoffs, 1.6% bye, 82.9 wins, +0.07 PTD
Minnesota Twins (-0.05): 33-42 record, 0.3% (-3.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 76.4 wins, -0.37 PTD
I never thought I’d see Detroit on top of the division like this. I mean, all things are possible of course, but it’s still nuts. Are they actually this good? Of course not. But they’re sure as heck playing like it. At the intersection of Detroit playing really well, having a three-game lead on the White Sox and the Sox actually not doing great, and Detroit has a really good shot at the playoffs. Just remember Baltimore last year (whose roster makeup was substantially similar to this one). Sometimes teams just play out of their minds for a while, but that doesn’t mean it’ll keep up. The White Sox went 9-10 over the last three weeks, and didn’t play particularly well doing it. At this point they’re playing slightly above-average ball and my sheet doesn’t have a ton of faith in them running down the Tigers. The Indians went on a 13-6 tear, winning five of their six series, taking 2 of 3 from the Reds, Rockies and Mariners, taking 3 of 4 from the White Sox and sweeping the Warhounds. Their run differentials weren’t super-impressive, but their improved record has kept the playoff window open for them a bit. The Twins went 8-11 and are playing all-around poor ball. This doesn’t look like their season.
AL West:
Los Angeles Angels (-0.41): 40-35 record, 48.8% (+13.1%) playoffs, 1.1% bye, 81.0 wins, -0.30 PTD
Colorado Rockies (+0.42): 34-41 record, 40.7% (-9.3%) playoffs, 0.6% bye, 80.6 wins, +0.22 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-0.76): 34-41 record, 1.7% (-5.4%) playoffs, 0% bye, 72.6 wins, -0.34 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-0.53): 31-44 record, 1.0% (-0.3%) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.1 wins, -0.58 PTD
Over the last three sims no team in the AL West had a winning record. The Angels . . . they’re playing below average ball yet are somehow 40-35, with a six game lead on the division. The Rockies are an above-average team, are playing above average, and yet are 34-41. My sheet is sure that the Rockies are the better team. But there’s only 87 games left and over those 87 games it thinks the Rockies are . . . 5.4 games better. That sounds great, except that the Angels are six games up. It’s still anyone’s game. The scary thing is that the Angels have this lead *after* trading Jaime Mejia. But will the lead hold once Duane Hansen comes back for Colorado? If the Angels need extra firepower they can trade me Sato - trading away a stud worked last time . . . The Mariners are playing respectably poor ball, but because of how wacky the AL West is this year, they still have a shot at pulling this off (though their 6-13 set of sims didn’t help).
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.77): 48-27 record, 99.8% (+0.2%) playoffs, 80.9% bye, 103.9 wins, +1.94 PTD
Kansas City Royals (+0.92): 48-27 record, 96.4% (+3.3%) playoffs, 17.5% bye, 98.1 wins, +1.11 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.87): 41-34 record, 60.8% (-19.1%) playoffs, 1.0% bye, 93.3 wins, +0.95 PTD
Houston Astros (+0.49): 38-37 record, 14.7% (+0.3%) playoffs, 0% bye, 85.2 wins, -0.11 PTD
Texas went a blistering 12-7 over the last three sims which got them . . . nothing against Kansas City who also went 12-7. The Rangers, however, are playing their butts off, now leading the PBL in WAR. That they only have an 81% shot at a bye is a tribute to how loaded their division is. The Royals continue to play at a very high level, keeping pace with the Rangers. My sheet expects them to finish with the 2nd best record in the AL, five games ahead of the next closest team which will earn them . . . a Wild Card spot. Welcome to the AL South. Speaking of which, Tampa Bay is forecast to have the 3rd best record in the AL. Only one team (outside their division) is playing better than them so far this season, and the Tigers are unlikely to keep that up. The Rays went 8-11 over these last three sims which now puts them seven games out on the division. It’s interesting - how can the Rays be forecast with the 3rd best record in the AL *and* only have a 61% playoff shot? Well, the problem is that their 93 wins gives them about a 2% chance of winning the division. So they have to hold off everyone else. Their threats? The Tigers/White Sox and the Astros. The Rays are the best of those teams, but all it takes is one of them to go nuts . . . It’s hard out there for a . . . in the AL South. And Houston? They actually went 11-8, put up some good WAR and haven’t actually dropped in Playoff Odds. They’re not a favorite anymore, but they have a shot.
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, New York Yankees
Division Winners: Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels
Wild Cards: Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays
Bubble Teams (in descending order): Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians, Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 91.5 wins
Pennant Odds:
Texas Rangers: 43.9%
Kansas City Royals: 15.5%
New York Yankees: 11.0%
Tampa Bay Rays: 8.2%
Detroit Tigers: 8.0%
Chicago White Sox: 5.7%
Colorado Rockies: 3.5%
Los Angeles Angels: 1.7%
Houston Astros: 1.4%
Cleveland Indians: 0.8%
I find this so interesting. On one hand the Rangers, the clear best team in the AL, have a massive chance to win. At the same time, it’s more likely that *someone* will beat them. And note that the Yankees, despite my sheet not thinking much of them, have a high chance, purely on account of their high record positioning them optimally to make a run in the playoffs. And even though the Angels are considered more likely to make the playoffs than the Rockies, the Rockies are twice as likely to win the Pennant. Why? Because the Rockies are better, or so the theory goes. I love this stuff.
NL Edition - 6/12/56
NL East:
New York Mets (+0.19): 38-24 record, 78.1% (+17.1%) playoff, 1.6% bye, 89.9 wins, +0.05 PTD
Philadelphia Phillies (+0.02): 36-26 record, 48.7% (-17.2%) playoff, 0.2% bye, 86.6 wins, +0.01 PTD
Montreal Expos (-0.92): 28-34 record, 0.1% (-0.1%) playoff, 0% bye, 71.1 wins, -0.02 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.57): 22-40 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 60.0 wins, -0.89 PTD
This division has some of the weirdest results - no division has less of a gap between their top WAR team and their bottom WAR team than the NL East. However, the wins aren’t falling in line with WAR. The Mets and Phillies are both putting up completely average WAR numbers but, somehow, keep winning at a high clip (they are 1st and 4th in overperforming their WAR, respectively). The Mets have gone 17-8 over the last month and created a two-game lead over the Phillies, who have only gone 14-11. Neither team is respected much by my sheets - both their preseason forecasts and WAR to date are about average, but their records (3rd and 6th in the NL) do put them in a pretty good position for the playoffs. However, because of the low Estimated Quality for both teams, they’re being given relatively low odds on winning the Pennant. Montreal . . . they have 0.18 WAR less than Philly and 0.46 WAR less than the Mets, yet somehow have 8 and 10 wins less than those two teams. I’m not saying that Montreal is secretly really good - they’re not. But objectively they’ve played exactly as well as the top teams in their division and it’s just the arbitrariness of the RNG that’s having them underperform their WAR at the same time that the Mets and Phillies are going so nuts.
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+2.25): 38-24 record, 100% playoffs, 97.2% bye, 106.2 wins, +2.07 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.12): 31-31 record, 6.9% (-24.4%) playoffs, 0% bye, 80.4 wins, -0.09 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-1.01): 24-38 record, 0% (-0.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 66.4 wins, -1.23 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.63): 19-43 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 56.5 wins, -1.66 PTD
Milwaukee had a really rough month, going only 12-13. Bizarrely, their WAR Rating didn’t actually drop that much, and they still sit well ahead of the rest of the league in WAR, Base Runs and Run Differential. And the sheet, predictably, thinks very well of their chances in the playoffs. Of course, they probably ought to try winning some games if they’re going to make any of this happen - their bye odds are no longer 100%. The Cubs struggled with a rough last month, going 11-14 and seeing their WAR drop below average. They’re currently on pace for 80-81 wins which is fine, but the playoffs are looking increasingly unlikely. The Reds are swan-diving hard and the Cardinals, despite actually playing decently over the last month, didn’t see much of an improvement to their record.
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.67): 40-22 record, 100% (+0.1%) playoffs, 83.1% bye, 103.6 wins, +1.55 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+0.80): 29-33 record, 35.4% (-29.0%) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 85.7 wins, +0.25 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (-0.17): 34-28 record, 19.7% (+10.4%) playoffs, 0% bye, 83.1 wins, +0.29 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.81): 27-35 record, 0% (-1.8%) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.0 wins, -0.99 PTD
San Diego continues to play at a high level, putting up excellent WAR and keeping a good record, going 14-11 over the last four sims. However, their lock on a bye has loosened on account of Washington’s excellent play to date. The Giants had a decent month, going 13-12 with above average WAR, but given their pre-existing record hole, their playoff odds have plummeted. They’re still expected to finish in the high 80s, but they’re running out of time to turn things around. The Dodgers currently enjoy a five game lead over the Giants (helped by a 16-9 month) but they honestly aren’t playing that well - their WAR is not much better than the Giants’. Their weaker roster is expected to fade down the stretch, but if they can keep this up they have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.
NL South:
Washington Nationals (+0.92): 39-23 record, 97.1% (+13.6%) playoffs, 14.5% bye, 96.6 wins, +0.98 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.84): 37-25 record, 93.0% (+48.6%) playoffs, 8.2% bye, 94.0 wins, +1.09 PTD
Miami Marlins (+0.36): 30-32 record, 22.2% (-10.4%) playoffs, 0% bye, 83.3 wins, +0.26 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.83): 21-41 record, 0% (-0.4%) playoffs, 0% bye, 64.9 wins, -1.61 PTD
Washington is doing their damndest to wreck the Brewers/Padres two-team race in the NL. They went an astounding 19-6 over the last four sims. Their WAR to date is simply not comparable to the Padres’ or Brewers’, but their record is so good that they still have a decent shot at a bye. The Braves’ have the misfortune of being in the same division as the Nats - the Braves also went 19-6, yet somehow gained no ground on Washington. However, they’ve almost locked down a playoff spot and even have a chance of landing a bye. The Marlins just can’t catch a break. They’re playing decent ball but are stuck below average (despite a 13-12 month) and are quickly running out of time to make a move for the playoffs.
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
Division Winners: Washington Nationals, New York Mets
Wild Card Teams: Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants
Bubble Teams (in descending order): Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 88.8 games
AL Edition - 6/5/56
AL East:
New York Yankees (+0.55): 36-20 record, 99.9% (+0.6%) playoffs, 60.3% bye, 94.0 wins, +0.42 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-0.43): 24-32 record, 0.0% (-0.6%) playoffs, 0% bye, 72.9 wins, -0.27 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-1.28): 19-37 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 61.8 wins, -1.74 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-1.94): 21-35 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 58.4 wins, -1.37 PTD
The Yankees keep winning at a high rate (13-6) even though they’re actually not playing particularly well. +0.42 is still above average, but it’s hardly dominant. At the same time, given the fact that all the top teams not in the AL South (which can only send one bye team) are struggling, the Yankees are looking increasingly likely to win that second bye. Boston is secretly playing close to average ball, but you wouldn’t guess it from their record.
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (+0.43): 34-22 record, 70.1% (+7.5%) playoffs, 28.5% bye, 91.0 wins, +0.25 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-0.02): 34-22 record, 39.2% (+27.4%) playoffs, 8.7% bye, 87.3 wins, +0.80 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.32): 24-32 record, 5.3% (-32.5%) playoffs, 0.6% bye, 80.1 wins, -0.01 PTD
Minnesota Twins (+0.15): 25-31 record, 4.0% (-24.7%) playoffs, 0.7% bye, 79.7 wins, -0.12 PTD
The White Sox aren’t playing very well, though you wouldn’t know it from looking at their record. Their WAR Rating so far is only +0.25, which is definitely above average but not by a ton. In spite of this, they’re winning game at a very solid rate, overperforming their WAR by the 5th highest rate in the league. At the intersection of a strong record and the best Estimated Quality in the division, the White Sox are in a pretty good position. The Tigers have been a revelation, playing great ball all year (4th highest WAR in the AL so far). Are they actually this good? Almost certainly not. But at this rate, even if they go 500 the rest of the way they still finish with 87 wins. Whether or not Detroit is this good, with their record they’re a legitimate playoff threat. Speaking of everything going awfully, how about Cleveland? They have completely average WAR and a solid roster, but somehow cannot win games, going 6-13 over the last three sims. They are underperforming their WAR by the 3rd most in the league. Whatever magic they used to win the World Series last year has definitely sling-shotted back against them. And the Twins . . . I wouldn’t have picked them to be last in the division. They had as bad a three sims as the Indians and they’re playing worse. They’re still an above average team . . . it just doesn’t seem to be helping them much.
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+0.48): 25-31 record, 50.0% (-27.5%) playoffs, 2.0% bye, 82.4 wins, +0.26 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (-0.48): 31-25 record, 35.7% (+28.8%) playoffs, 1.2% bye, 80.5 wins, -0.40 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-0.78): 28-28 record, 7.1% (+5.8%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 75.0 wins, -0.20 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-0.54): 22-34 record, 1.3% (-0.4%) playoffs, 0% bye, 70.9 wins, -0.67 PTD
Colorado . . . it’s not that they’re playing badly. They have the same WAR as the White Sox, and they definitely have the best team in the AL West. Yet, somehow, they keep finding ways to lose (underperfoming their WAR by the 2nd most in the league). In the last three sims they held their own against weak teams, but went 1-2 against the Yankees, Phillies and Mets, and went 1-3 against the Angels. A 9-10 set of sims isn’t awful, and if the rest of the division were struggling too, it wouldn’t be too bad. But given that the Rockies have now generously spotted their opponents a 6-game lead, they would be well advised to start winning. The Angels went 15-4 over the last three weeks. It wasn’t against a dominant string of opponents: Pittsburgh, Boston, Baltimore, Toronto along with the Rockies and Phillies isn’t a hard run. But 15-4 against anyone is a pretty big deal. The funny part is, they’re not actually playing that well. Their 15 wins include six one-run games and three two-run games - they didn’t go 15-4 because they dominated, they went 15-4 mostly because of luck. It still counts. And now, with a 31-25 record, they have a decent chance to topple Colorado off the division. Note that the sheet isn’t considering the Mejia trade at all. Seattle is playing pretty decent ball for them historically (-0.20 isn’t bad, but it’s notably better than the Angels) and they have an average record. Normally this wouldn’t be much of a cause for celebration, but between the Rockies’ inability to win, and the Angels’ inability to play well, the Mariners have an actual shot.
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.64): 36-20 record, 99.6% (+0.2%) playoffs, 77.4% bye, 103.1 wins, +1.86 PTD
Kansas City Royals (+0.85): 36-20 record, 93.1% (+38.0%) playoffs, 14.2% bye, 96.5 wins, +1.11 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.83): 33-23 record, 79.9% (-1.3%) playoffs, 5.8% bye, 93.3 wins, +0.96 PTD
Houston Astros (+0.48): 27-29 record, 14.4% (-13.7%) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 84.5 wins, -0.43 PTD
Ha! Ha! Texas went 11-8 over a three-week sim! Who’s laughing now Texas!? Who’s laughing now!?
Seriously though, Texas somehow was projected to be the best team in the AL, and yet is outperforming their forecast. And yet, their odds at a bye have actually dropped, thanks to our next team. Kansas City had an absolutely murderous 15-4 set of sims against the following: Milwaukee, Cleveland, Minnesota, the White Sox, Texas and Cincinnati. That’s a really good group of teams to go 15-4 against. They now have the second highest WAR in the AL and tied for the best record. The Royals are looking really good right now. The Rays . . . last year they won 101 games and got the wild card because they were behind the Rangers. No doubt they were hoping for a different result this year. So far they’re playing like gangbusters, having the 3rd best WAR in the AL, on pace for a 93 win season and they’re behind . . . two teams in the division. I don’t know what Tampa did to the baseball gods, but they should apologize. And Houston. Upside, they went 10-9, which is above 500. Downside, they’re still not playing well. Double downside, their division seems to contain three of the top three teams in the AL. Aside from that they’re doing great.
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, New York Yankees
Division Winners: Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies
Wild Cards: Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays
Bubble Teams (in descending order): Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Indians, Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 91.8 wins
Current as of 5/15/56
AL East:
New York Yankees (+0.67): 23-14 record, 99.3% (+4.3%) playoffs, 49.1% bye, 92.6 wins, +0.73 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-0.54): 16-21 record, 0.7% (-3.8%) playoffs, 0% bye, 73.8 wins, -0.51 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-1.10): 14-23 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 66.3 wins, -1.62 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-1.96): 15-22 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 59.1 wins, -1.21 PTD
The haves and have nots continue increasing their distance. The Yankees put together a very nice pair of sims, mostly beating on weak teams but also featuring a 2-1 win over the White Sox (with a 24-13 run differential). It’s not that the Yankees are looking dominant - they’re playing at about the level expected in the preseason forecast (well, slightly better), which is very good but not great. The thing really working to their advantage is that their competitors are struggling. The Rockies, while looking more stable, aren’t doing well, and the White Sox had a bad pair of sims. Which leaves the Yankees as the second bye team by default. Boston’s relatively nice start to their season went off the rails on the heels of a bad pair of sims (featuring a 2-5 record against the Blue Jays and Mariners). They’re still playing not awfully, but their playoff odds are plummeting. Baltimore is playing worse than expected, Toronto is playing much better than expected (3-3 split against the Rockies and Phillies this last sim) but both are looking around 60-65 wins, which isn’t likely to disrupt the playoff picture much.
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (+0.53): 22-15 record, 62.6% (-11.0%) playoffs, 25.5% bye, 90.2 wins, +0.47 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.63): 18-19 record, 38.8% (+12.7%) playoffs, 11.6% bye, 87.2 wins, +0.70 PTD
Minnesota Twins (+0.40): 19-18 record, 28.7% (-10.5%) playoffs, 8.7% bye, 85.9 wins, +0.45 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-0.34): 22-15 record, 11.8% (+9.4%) playoffs, 2.1% bye, 81.8 wins, +0.39 PTD
Chicago’s hot start ended with a bang, going 6-7 and playing all-around bad ball. They’re still a good team and they still have a good record, but they’re suddenly looking vulnerable (especially as regards the bye). Cleveland didn’t have a particularly dominant pair of sims, but did go 7-6 (including a sweep of the Astros) and played quite well. Despite being last in the division they have the best WAR of the group so far (if not by a lot), though most of their playoff odds improvement comes from Chicago struggling and less from Cleveland dominating. The Twins had a rough set of sims, going 6-7 but suffering a brutal sweep at the hands of the Rays (3-19 run differential). They’re still good, they’re still in it, the AL Central is just a tough division to be above average in. And the Tigers . . . are they for real? It depends. If you mean, “Are they actually an above average team?” the answer, to date, is yes. They have the 8th highest WAR in the AL (though 4th in their own division), but to date both WAR and record suggest that they’re above average. If you mean, “Are they a legitimate 90+ win team (as their pace currently is for 96 wins)” the answer is likely no. Their WAR is good but not that good, and teams that outperform their preseason forecast by this much generally regress. They’re expected to finish at 82 wins, which would be the franchise’s highest total since 2030. And they could finish higher. But I don’t buy that they’re a serious playoff contender. Yet.
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+0.53): 16-21 record, 87.5% (+8.6%) playoffs, 5.5% bye, 84.2 wins, +0.31 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (-0.56): 16-21 record, 6.9% (-7.6%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 73.6 wins, -0.66 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-0.69): 13-24 record, 1.7% () playoffs, 0% bye, 69.3 wins, -1.23 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.18): 17-20 record, 1.3% (-0.5%) playoffs, 0% bye, 68.6 wins, -1.08 PTD
The Rockies bounce back (within reason) with an 8-5 pair of sims. Their quality of opponent wasn’t too hot, but they did take 2 of 3 from the Rays. They’re still underperforming their WAR by more than anyone (by a lot), given that they’re playing above average ball and are only 16-21. That said, their biggest threat is one of the other teams in the division getting hot and, to date, that hasn’t happened. The Angels continue playing badly, and their chances of beating the Rockies to the end is looking increasingly unlikely. The Athletics are playing far worse than expected and the Mariners are playing about as badly as expected (though with a better record).
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.56): 25-12 record, 99.4% (+3.6%) playoffs, 86.7% bye, 103.2 wins, +1.90 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.67): 24-13 record, 81.2% (+5.9%) playoffs, 7.6% bye, 93.6 wins, +0.65 PTD
Kansas City Royals (+0.60): 21-16 record, 55.1% (+28.8%) playoffs, 2.8% bye, 89.9 wins, +0.62 PTD
Houston Astros (+0.62): 17-20 record, 28.1% (-36.2%) playoffs, 0.4% bye, 86.1 wins, -0.56 PTD
Texas is Andre the Gianting all the other teams in the AL. Their WAR is way, way ahead of everyone else and, despite only being one game up on the Rays, they’re expected to finish 9.6 games higher. The Rangers seem like the best team in the AL by a mile. The Rays have the misfortune of being in the Rangers’ division - it stinks to be expected to win 94 games and still only have an 8% shot at the bye. They had a really rough set of sims (6-7 against good competition in the Rockies, Rangers, Twins and Marlins) but they’re still playing like a very good team. The Royals went 10-3 over these last sims and are increasingly looking very good. This shouldn’t be a surprise, they’ve been this good roster-wise for years. But it’s nevertheless nice to see them competing. And the Astros . . . Last time the story was “they’re playing badly, but at least they’re winning.” One of those two things changed, and it wasn’t the playing badly. Now they’re swan-diving to the bottom of the division and have a less than ⅓ chance of making the playoffs. They’re not out of it by any means, but this is *not* a division where you can get away with this sort of thing.
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, New York Yankees
Division Winners: Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies
Wild Cards: Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals
Bubble Teams (in descending order): Cleveland Indians, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 90.9 wins
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies (+0.22): 22-15 record, 65.5% (-8.9%) playoff, 0.7% bye, 87.1 wins, +0.57 PTD
New York Mets (+0.21): 21-16 record, 61.0% (+24.9%) playoff, 0.6% bye, 86.1 wins, +0.01 PTD
Montreal Expos (-1.30): 17-20 record, 0.2% (+0.1%) playoff, 0% bye, 67.5 wins, -0.41 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.49): 16-21 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 64.6 wins, -0.18 PTD
Philadelphia continues to play at a high level, but loses playoff ground, more because of the Mets than because of any struggles the Phillies are having. The Mets went 10-3, sweeping the Reds and Red Sox and taking 2 of 3 from the Padres and find themselves only a game out. They’re not actually playing particularly well (per their average WAR so far) but given that my sheet thinks that their roster is a little better than Philadelphia’s it’s expected to be a dead heat for the division. And there’s actually a 25% chance of an NL East team making the wild card, which hasn’t happened in a while. The Expos continue to play far better than expected, staying within five games of the lead in the division. They’re not expected to challenge, but they’re not doing too badly. The Pirates are playing even better, with WAR that’s almost league average. I don’t know how long they can keep it up but it’s going well so far.
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+2.32): 26-11 record, 100% playoffs, 100% bye, 111.6 wins, +2.33 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.00): 20-17 record, 31.3% (+23.8%) playoffs, 0% bye, 83.1 wins, +0.30 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.75): 17-20 record, 0.7% (-1.0%) playoffs, 0% bye, 72.8 wins, -0.74 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.72): 11-26 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 57.4 wins, -2.11 PTD
The Brewers are playing at an extremely high level. The Cubs had a great pair of sims, going 9-4 and playing at a very high level. Suddenly, the Cubs are an above-average team with an above-average record with a legitimate shot at the playoffs. The Reds so far are a below average metronome and the Cardinals are not having a good year.
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.64): 26-11 record, 99.9% (-%) playoffs, 99.6% bye, 105.0 wins, +1.54 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+0.89): 16-21 record, 64.4% (-21.1%) playoffs, 0.9% bye, 87.6 wins, +0.08 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (-0.29): 18-19 record, 9.3% (+3.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 78.2 wins, +0.32 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.68): 17-20 record, 1.8% (+1.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 73.5 wins, -0.85 PTD
The Padres, Rangers and Brewers are being pretty boring by playing exactly as expected, or better. The Padres have locked up the second bye (or the first bye quite possibly). The Giants . . . they’re not playing badly per se. Their record may look bad but they’re still playing like a 500 team. They’re very lucky that the 3-6 teams in the NL are collectively struggling right now, because in the AL they’d be at more like 45% playoff odds. They can certainly turn it around, but it certainly isn’t going ideally so far. The Dodgers are playing solid ball (even if not reflected in their record) and have an outside shot at a playoff spot if this keeps up. Arizona is overperforming their WAR, and could squeak into the playoffs if everything lined up just right.
NL South:
Washington Nationals (+0.79): 20-17 record, 83.5% (-6.0%) playoffs, 2.5% bye, 90.7 wins, +0.76 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.42): 18-19 record, 44.4% (-16.1%) playoffs, 0.6% bye, 85.2 wins, +0.17 PTD
Miami Marlins (+0.39): 17-20 record, 32.6% (-10.8%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 84.5 wins, +0.30 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.51): 12-25 record, 0.4% (-3.3%) playoffs, 0% bye, 70.1 wins, -1.47 PTD
The Nats swept the Braves, and proceeded to get one win out of series against the Brewers, Diamondbacks and Royals. They’re still the best team in their division, but their lead in quality and wins is not insurmountable. The Braves in the meantime are having a weirdly down year. Their WAR is barely above average and their record is below 500. An expectation of 85 wins is not what you want if the playoffs are your goal. The Marlins are playing better than the Braves, but are considered to have the slightly weaker roster (probably not after the Mejia trade) and so are expected to finish slightly behind, but they still have a very legitimate shot at things. The Warhounds . . . the best thing I can say is that, given their pattern, their due for a very hot two sims coming up.
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
Division Winners: Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies
Wild Card Teams: San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves
Bubble Teams (in descending order): New York Mets, Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 87.0 games (!!!)
Current as of 5/1/56
AL East:
New York Yankees (+0.62): 15-9 record, 95.0% (+1.1%) playoffs, 32.5% bye, 91.5 wins, +0.64 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-0.44): 12-12 record, 4.5% (-0.6%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 77.0 wins, -0.16 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-1.13): 9-15 record, 0% (-1.0%) playoffs, 0% bye, 66.4 wins, -2.06 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-2.05): 9-15 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 56.5 wins, -1.43 PTD
More of the same in the AL East. Truthfully, most of the teams here didn’t play particularly well over the last two weeks. The Yankees are on cruise control for the division with a respectable shot at a bye. The Red Sox are managing to stay at 500, despite not impressing with their overall performance. The Orioles are really struggling right now, and the Blue Jays, though not playing well, are outperforming their forecast.
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (+0.66): 16-8 record, 73.6% (+2.1%) playoffs, 43.8% bye, 92.9 wins, +1.02 PTD
Minnesota Twins (+0.51): 13-11 record, 39.2% (+18.8%) playoffs, 15.0% bye, 88.3 wins, +0.96 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.54): 11-13 record, 26.1% (-15.2%) playoffs, 8.2% bye, 86.6 wins, +0.44 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-0.48): 14-10 record, 2.4% (+0.3%) playoffs, 0.5% bye, 78.6 wins, +0.13 PTD
Only one division in the PBL has all four teams with above average WAR, and that’s the AL Central. Chicago is doing their Chicago thing, smoking their preseason forecast like a victory cigar while they improve their playoff and bye odds. That their playoff odds only went up 2% should suggest just how tight this division is becoming. The Twins had an insane two weeks (the three games against the Orioles where they outscored their opposition 34-0 may have contributed) and jumped their playoff odds by more than anyone in the AL. My sheet still thinks they’re the 3rd best team in the division, but they’re in a good position. The Indians just can’t catch a break. They’re playing well, but it isn’t turning into wins. They’re underperforming their WAR by the 5th most in the league, and they’re underperforming their Base Runs by the most in the league. They’re still expected to finish well (because of their quality play and roster) but now they’re last in their division, which so far is the most competitive in the league. It’s not an ideal position. The Tigers are actually playing quite nicely, throwing up above average WAR and going 14-10. My sheet is still quite skeptical of their quality, but they’re approaching an estimated wins above 80, which is a place the Tigers haven’t been in . . . a long time.
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+0.48): 9-15 record, 78.9% (-12.9%) playoffs, 6.7% bye, 83.9 wins, +0.08 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (-0.57): 12-12 record, 14.5% (+10.1%) playoffs, 0.3% bye, 75.6 wins, -0.76 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.12): 12-12 record, 1.8% (+0.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 69.6 wins, -0.91 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-0.67): 7-17 record, 1.7% (-0.5%) playoffs, 0% bye, 69.5 wins, -1.43 PTD
Speaking of teams that are underperforming like crazy, the Rockies are the team in the PBL underperforming their WAR by the most. Their WAR hasn’t been impressive mind you, only barely above average. But 9-15 is still far worse than you’d expect given that performance. While the components (9-15, average WAR, only 84 expected wins) looks bleak, they have one big thing going for them. And that’s that the rest of the division is all struggling. The Angels and the Mariners may be 12-12 but they’re both putting up quite below average WAR so far. So Colorado may be forecast low, but they’re still expected to win their division by 8 games. Oakland is in the same situation as the Angels, minus the good record. However, despite the fact that all three of these bottom teams are playing badly, Colorado’s struggles create a much greater window for playoff eligibility than would normally happen.
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.45): 15-9 record, 95.8% (+3.6) playoffs, 67.2% bye, 100.6 wins, +1.78 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.61): 18-6 record, 75.3% (+8.3%) playoffs, 18.0% bye, 94.4 wins, +0.47 PTD
Houston Astros (+0.83): 13-11 record, 64.3% (-16.0%) playoffs, 9.2% bye, 91.8 wins, -0.19 PTD
Kansas City Royals (+0.56): 11-13 record, 26.3% (+0.5%) playoffs, 1.7% bye, 86.8 wins, +0.52 PTD
Texas continues to throw up massive WARs, continuing to demonstrate that they are the best team in the AL. Yes, Tampa Bay is already up on them by five games, but in no metric (pythag, WAR or Base Runs) is Tampa Bay doing better than Texas. Texas is the only AL team expected to break 100 wins, and is the front-runner for just about everything. Tampa Bay has the best record in the PBL, but doesn’t have the WAR to back it up. They’re currently expected to have the 2nd best record in the AL but finish behind Texas (has that happened before)? Houston is still considered to be the 2nd best team in the AL, but they’re not playing like it. In fact, Houston has played below average ball through these first four weeks, and it isn’t helping that Tampa is winning games left and right. Houston is still considered to have a strong position for the wild card, but there are *a lot* of teams that could challenge them if they don’t get their act together. Kansas City put together a much better 2nd two weeks, and actually has the 2nd best WAR in the division. They’re expected to finish with 87 wins, which is strong, even if 4th in the AL South. Don’t count them out, anyone in this division could make a run.
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox
Division Winners: New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies
Wild Cards: Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros
Bubble Teams (in descending order): Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 92.0 wins (!!!!)
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies (+0.19): 15-9 record, 74.4% (-1.5%) playoff, 0.6% bye, 86.9 wins, +0.66 PTD
New York Mets (+0.14): 11-13 record, 36.1% (+10.5%) playoff, 0.1% bye, 82.2 wins, -0.33 PTD
Montreal Expos (-1.39): 11-13 record, 0.1% (-) playoff, 0% bye, 65.6 wins, -0.50 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.74): 8-16 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 58.9 wins, -0.71 PTD
Philadelphia continues to play at a high level, but only goes 6-6. Given that they lose some lead to the Mets, the Phillies’ playoff odds dropped slightly (given that there’s only about a 10% chance that the 2nd place team in the division makes the playoffs, winning the division is kind of key). The Mets have a solid set of sims, going 7-5 and pulling within increased striking distance of the Phillies. Both the Expos and Pirates are playing better than expected, though only the Expos can show it on their record.
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+2.18): 17-7 record, 100% playoffs, 100% bye, 110.5 wins, +2.04 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.15): 11-13 record, 8.5% (-4.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 79.1 wins, -0.16 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.70): 11-13 record, 1.7% (+0.9%) playoffs, 0% bye, 73.2 wins, -0.61 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.59): 6-18 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 58.4 wins, -1.95 PTD
The Brewers continue to play at a high level, averaging a fairly stupid 6.6 runs per game so far. The Cubs are consistently playing slightly below average ball, which doesn’t preclude anything but their shot at the playoffs is going to continue to diminish if it continues. The Reds are actually playing a little better than expected, and their playoff odds have increased from “almost no way” to “really unlikely”. The Cardinals are not having a good year.
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.63): 17-7 record, 99.9% (+0.6%) playoffs, 88.9% bye, 104.5 wins, +1.64 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+1.01): 12-12 record, 86.5% (-5.4%) playoffs, 5.1% bye, 92.8 wins, +0.33 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (-0.29): 11-13 record, 5.6% (+3.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 77.7 wins, +0.59 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.55): 10-14 record, 0.7% (-0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 73.7 wins, -0.50 PTD
The Padres are playing excellent ball right now and are looking like a guaranteed bye team. The Giants are struggling a bit. It’s not that they’re playing badly, they’re playing well (though with a slightly disappointing record). And they’re still forecast with the 4th best record at the end of the year. At the same time, given how much the loaded their already-good team in the offseason, a WR of +0.33 is a little disappointing. They’ve still got a lot of maneuvering room (almost an 8-game expected lead over the first team out) but they’ll want to start playing better. The Dodgers have actually been playing really good ball (+0.59 WAR Rating), but can’t seem to win games. If they can keep this level of play up, they are likely to challenge for a playoff spot before all is said and done. The Diamondbacks are playing solidly below-average ball.
NL South:
Washington Nationals (+0.85): 15-9 record, 89.5% (+3.4%) playoffs, 8.7% bye, 94.0 wins, +1.05 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.43): 13-11 record, 60.5% (+0.8%) playoffs, 1.8% bye, 87.5 wins, +0.15 PTD
Miami Marlins (+0.34): 11-13 record, 32.6% (-10.8%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 84.5 wins, +0.11 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.25): 9-15 record, 3.7% (+2.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 76.0 wins, -0.92 PTD
The Nationals are playing excellent ball, currently showing the #5 WAR in the PBL and a strong record. Their last two sims weren’t quite as generous win-wise, so they didn’t gain a ton of ground on their division, but they’re still clearly the front-runner. They’d have better bye odds if Milwaukee and San Diego weren’t playing so well. The Braves are only playing slightly above average so far and aren’t expected to finish above 90 wins, but given the struggles facing their competition (Marlins, Cubs, Warhounds and Mets) the Braves’ playoff odds really haven’t budged. The Marlins are playing pretty much like the Braves, only with two less wins. That two-game gap is the primary reason the Braves have a 28% higher playoff odds number - the Marlins could easily turn this around. The Warhounds had a decent pair of sims, going 8-4 on average WAR. They’re still an outside shot with everything but they’ve pulled themselves up from the pavement, which is an achievement in and of itself.
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
Division Winners: Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies
Wild Card Teams: San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves
Bubble Teams (in descending order): New York Mets, Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, Carolina Warhounds, Cincinnati Reds
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 88.2 games.
Current as of 4/17/56
AL East:
New York Yankees (+0.68): 7-5 record, 93.9% (--) playoffs, 31.7% bye, 90.6 wins, +1.03 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-0.42): 5-7 record, 5.1% (--) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 76.0 wins, +0.16 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-0.85): 5-7 record, 1.3% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.0 wins, -1.17 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-2.18): 5-7 record, 0% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 55.6 wins, -1.95 PTD
The AL East is going exactly the way you’d expect. The Yankees are playing solid ball, with a decent record, are on pace for 90 wins and with an extremely probable shot at winning the division but not getting a bye. The rest of the AL East is 5-7, but they’re playing quite differently. The Red Sox actually have above-average WAR and are currently forecast in the mid 70s for wins, which gives them an outside shot at the playoffs. Baltimore may be 5-7 but they’re playing quite badly (any WAR rating below -1 is pretty bad). And Toronto . . . well, at least they’re 5-7.
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (+0.61): 9-3 record, 71.5% (--) playoffs, 38.4% bye, 91.9 wins, +1.02 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.53): 5-7 record, 41.3% (--) playoffs, 11.0% bye, 86.9 wins, +0.34 PTD
Minnesota Twins (+0.28): 5-7 record, 20.0% (--) playoffs, 4.7% bye, 84.1 wins, -0.09 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-0.55): 7-5 record, 2.1% (--) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 76.4 wins, +0.09 PTD
The Chicago White Sox are doing what they usually do - making my forecast look bad. Their 9-3 record is unreliably high (still counts), but even their WAR Rating to date is quite good (+1.02) and at the intersection of those two things they’re actually expected to win 90+ games. They’re even the favorite to get that 2nd bye, but not by much. The Indians are playing decently but their record isn’t doing them any favors at 5-7. They’re still expected to finish in the high 80s but with the 2nd wildcard team in the AL averaging 91 wins, they’ll need to up their game. Minnesota has underwhelmed - they may be 5-7 but they’re only showing at an average WAR which has them finishing in the low 80s, though hardly out of the running. And the Tigers have actually been pretty good so far, going 7-5 and putting up above average WAR (if not by much). They’re still not expected to do much, but they’re slowly moving themselves from doormat into low-end spoiler territory. An interesting team to watch.
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+0.60): 6-6 record, 91.8% (--) playoffs, 21.8% bye, 88.8 wins, +0.58 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (-0.58): 5-7 record, 4.1% (--) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 74.1 wins, -1.04 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-0.53): 3-9 record, 2.2% (--) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 72.7 wins, -1.23 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.10): 7-5 record, 1.1% playoffs, 0.1% bye, 70.1 wins, -0.72 PTD
The Colorado Rockies are only 6-6, and the injury RNG is giving them the finger (probably Duane Hansen’s). But they’re playing at a solid if unimpressive level (+0.58 so far) and that plus their preseason forecast should be enough for 89 wins or so. Obviously my sheet isn’t taking into account Big Duane’s injury, but that shouldn’t cost more than a win or so. And Colorado’s biggest asset right now is their division. The Angels are 5-7, which isn’t bad, but their -1.04 WAR Rating so far is very disappointing for a team with as much upside as they have. The Athletics are playing even worse (-1.23 WR) and are 3-9, so despite their considerable roster talent they’re not looking particularly good so far. And the Mariners are actually doing fairly well, going 7-5 and showing a WAR rating of -0.72 (which is bad, but not awful). So the Mariners are actually the 2nd best team in the divisions so far, though their pessimistic preseason prediction really caps their forecast. If they can keep this up though . . .
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.31): 7-5 record, 92.2% (--) playoffs, 54.3% bye, 98.0 wins, +1.28 PTD
Houston Astros (+0.98): 7-5 record, 80.3% (--) playoffs, 22.8% bye, 94.2 wins, -0.02 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.62): 9-3 record, 67.0% (--) playoffs, 13.7% bye, 92.0 wins, +0.44 PTD
Kansas City Royals (+0.51): 4-8 record, 25.8% (--) playoffs, 1.9% bye, 85.7 wins, +0.22 PTD
Look at those teams in the AL South - even the worst of them is really good. The Rangers are 7-5, boasting a WR above +1 (one of three teams in the AL to do so) and expected to finish in the high 90s. You would expect such a team to have higher than a 92% playoff shot and a 54% bye shot, but in this division, merely being excellent only gets you so much. Houston had a pretty disappointing first two weeks. Granted, 7-5 is a fine record (and as good as the Rangers) but posting an average WAR isn’t what you want to see from a team forecast as the 2nd best team in the AL. They’re now expected to finish four games back from the Rangers, but are still the prohibitive favorite for a wild card spot. The Rays continue to punch above their weight (or maybe my weights are just wrong, who knows?) going 9-3 so far. But their WR (+0.44) doesn’t suggest that such a record is sustainable. The Rays have unquestionably improved their position, but they don’t yet look like the #2 team in the AL that they were last year. Kansas City continues to have everything going for them except, you know, winning games. They have a strong roster, a decent WR (+0.22) but 4-8 really screws them over as far as playoff odds. They still have a lot going for them, but their record is going to need to turn around. You know, before the final month of the season.
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox
Division Winners: New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies
Wild Cards: Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays
Bubble Teams (in descending order): Cleveland Indians, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 91.1 wins
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies (+0.14): 9-3 record, 75.9% (--) playoff, 1.1% bye, 86.4 wins, +0.70 PTD
New York Mets (+0.08): 4-8 record, 25.6% (--) playoff, 0.2% bye, 80.7 wins, -1.06 PTD
Montreal Expos (-1.43): 5-7 record, 0.1% (--) playoff, 0% bye, 64.4 wins, -0.17 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.78): 5-7 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 60.3 wins, -0.35 PTD
What!? The Phillies are overperforming their forecast! This has never happened before!! Seriously, they’re playing well (+0.7 isn’t, you know, barn-burning, but it’s quite good) and they’re 9-3 so far, so everything is coming up Millhouse. Their preseason forecast was pretty pessimistic, so they’re only forecast at 86 wins right now, but a 5-win lead and solid WAR still give them a 76% shot at the playoffs. The Mets on the other hand, are the literal opposite. Their record isn’t good (4-8) and their WR is quite bad at -1.06. The sheet still thinks the two are basically the same team, but the Mets weak start has cut their playoff odds in half. The Expos are actually playing decently (5-7 and -0.17 WR aren’t awesome, but they’re not awful either) but these would only be valuable in a season where the Phillies were struggling, which they aren’t. And the Pirates are continuing to overperform my sheet, also going 5-7 with a non-awful WAR. Neither are impressing, but both are playing decently.
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+2.17): 10-2 record, 100% (--) playoffs, 100% bye, 110.9 wins, +2.01 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.09): 6-6 record, 13.2% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 80.8 wins, +0.20 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.73): 5-7 record, 0.8% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 72.4 wins, -0.85 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.44): 4-8 record, 0% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 63.2 wins, -1.45 PTD
Well, the Brewers were pegged as the front-runner for pretty much everything and they haven’t disappointed, posting the best record, best run differential and highest WAR in the league. The Cubs are actually doing a solid job; they’re 6-6 and rolling a positive WR which sets them up to average a finish in the low 80s. This may not sound like much, but it wouldn’t take much for them to get hot and legitimate threaten for a playoff spot. The Reds aren’t having a great year so far, which shouldn’t be a big surprise given the fact that they rang in the new year by trading several of their best players (a trend that may well continue). The Cardinals are playing all-around badly, but this likely wasn’t going to be their year anyways.
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.61): 8-4 record, 99.3% (--) playoffs, 69.0% bye, 102.5 wins, +1.64 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+1.15): 7-5 record, 91.9% (--) playoffs, 18.5% bye, 96.1 wins, +0.70 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (-0.44): 5-7 record, 1.9% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 75.8 wins, +0.31 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.59): 5-7 record, 0.8% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 74.0 wins, -0.75 PTD
The Padres are up to their usual tricks, going 8-4, throwing up really high WAR and looking all around excellent (actually, the Padres’ go-to is to have the best WAR and roster in the league but be struggling for no reason, but we can’t have everything). The Giants . . . well, I can’t say they’re entirely disappointing. After all, they’re 7-5 and have the 4th best WAR in the league. At the same time, they were forecast as one of the top five teams in the PBL by a good margin and to date that isn’t happening. Still, compared to last year’s bizarro season, this is going pretty well. The Dodgers are actually playing decently (+0.31 WR) but it hasn’t hit their record, and their preseason forecast doesn’t think their roster has the staying power to compete this year (but it could be wrong). The Diamondbacks are having a solidly below-average season across the board, though there are worse things than finishing in the mid-70s.
NL South:
Washington Nationals (+0.88): 8-4 record, 86.2% (--) playoffs, 11.3% bye, 94.0 wins, +1.45 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.51): 7-5 record, 59.7% (--) playoffs, 2.3% bye, 88.8 wins, +0.44 PTD
Miami Marlins (+0.37): 7-5 record, 43.4% (--) playoffs, 1.7% bye, 87.1 wins, +0.09 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.31): 1-11 record, 1.0% (--) playoffs, 0% bye, 73.3 wins, -1.85 PTD
Washington is on a tear so far, going 8-4 and posting the 3rd highest WAR in the league so far. They’re going to face some solid competition from their division, but they are nevertheless considered the front-runner at this point. The Braves have played well (7-5 and +0.44 WR) but in a way that’s consistent with a high 80’s finish, not last season’s mid-90s. They are not looking dominant, and they could face a serious challenge from the Marlins. But the good news for Atlanta is that, after the Marlins, there aren’t really other teams to challenge for that wild card spot without a fair amount of luck coming into it. The Marlins may be 7-5 but they aren’t playing that well (about average WAR) and so are considered to be a small underdog in the apparent two-team wildcard race (barring the Cubs going on a run). And the Warhounds . . . To be clear, the Warhounds are *not* a bad team. They have always had strong pitching and relatively weak hitting (with a few exceptions). But this year their bats have been outright awful. They have four batters hitting below 200, and three below 160. Put this all together and they’re 1-11 (which is an unlucky record, even as badly as they’ve played) and have the second worst WAR in the league. They are not this team. But the beginning of this season couldn’t have gone much worse for them.
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
Division Winners: Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies
Wild Card Teams: San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves
Bubble Teams (in descending order): Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, Carolina Warhounds
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 89.7 games.