Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Sept 13, 2020 13:32:19 GMT -5
Standard Disclaimers:
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
4) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
5) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
6) This is adjusted for half of the amount the GM has under/over performed the sheet to date.
7) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
8) This is counting the entire franchise roster, so minor league players may be counted if my sheet thinks that they're an upgrade.
9) And to be clear, when I say a team is better/worse than last year, I'm explicitly comparing them to where they and their players were in spring training of the prior year.
NL East:
New York Mets: 85.1 wins
Philadelphia Phillies: 82.1 wins
Montreal Expos: 62.9 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates: 58.5 wins
The Mets have improved and its almost all on the batter-side of the equation. Lots of little upgrades, but Paul Peoples has improved a lot, as has Trujillo, and Boucher provides the solid DH that they didn't have last year. The Phillies are largely similar to last year, save that Francisco Rivera has gotten even better. The Expos have regressed somewhat harshly, with Johnny Smith getting worse and Kurt Wood going to the Giants. Likewise their pitching, besides Rob Bailey, is downgraded from last year. Pittsburgh is more or less the same team as last year - there's development but it isn't at the major league level.
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers: 106.6 wins
Chicago Cubs: 80.1 wins
Cincinnati Reds: 73.7 wins
St. Louis Cardinals: 65.5 wins
Milwaukee may be overrated by my sheet (though the GM factor corrects for that somewhat) but, at least on paper, it's a pretty impressive array of talent. Raul Ferrer is better, Cliff Black is better, Yang Siu is major-league ready, Travis Steele provides an upgrade over Antonio Medina . . . the bats are better. And on the other side, Kenny Ibarra has gotten better, Javier Arrerondo has improved and the addition of Andrew Bell and Matt Hines makes the pitching even better. My sheet thinks that they're the team to beat this year. Chicago is actually expected to be a little worse than last year, which was surprising to me. The addition of Manny Rivera should help, but losing Kakuta leaves a hole at the 1B/DH slot. Still solid, but not one of the likely playoff teams. Cincinnati is largely the same team as last year, only older and with a thinned out bullpen. St. Louis seems to have regressed on offense, losing Vincent Owens, Pedro Castillo and Sumait, without finding comparable ML-level replacements.
NL West:
San Diego Padres: 99.9 wins
San Francisco Giants: 95.7 wins
Arizona Diamondbacks: 75.4 wins
Los Angeles Dodgers: 75.2 wins
San Diego seems improved, which is impressive given that they were one of the top NL teams last year. The acquisition of Lorenzo Hernandez upgrades their Catcher position. MacGruder and Aitkenhead both seem to have lost a step, but the aggregate is still very strong. Speaking of which, Jim King and Manny Sanchez both seem slightly worse, but their rotation is deeper than last year. San Francisco also looks considerably improved, though by that I mean "improved from their 89-win forecast last year" not "improved from their 78-win disappointment last year". The improvement is mostly on the offensive end, from the acquisition of Rory Strong and the development of 22 year-old Jason Simms. The pitching side is less rosy - Enrique Vazquez has lost a point of stuff and is now fragile. That said, the bottom end of their rotation is slightly better. In aggregate, San Francisco is considered one of the top five teams in the league this year, which should suggest how much of a fluke last year was. Arizona moved some pieces around, but the aggregate is about the same as last year. And the Dodgers . . . an AFK GM is never a good thing. One hopes that Wilson is okay.
NL South:
Washington Nationals: 90.4 wins
Atlanta Braves: 87.7 wins
Miami Marlins: 86.5 wins
Carolina Warhounds: 81.6 wins
The NL South looks good once again, even if not as good as the AL South. The Nationals look very good (again), even if worse than last year. Their pitching has regressed, with Robles and Garcia losing a step while Bo Moore hits free agency. On the offensive side, the quiet improvement of Varquez, Cervantes and Daniels in some way makes up for Page's slow descent and Chris Allen's sudden decline. They should still be very good. Atlanta is an estimated six wins better than last year, though last year the sheet only considered them an average team. The improvement is mostly in their rotation: Burns is a lot better, Fernando Sanchez is a lot better and the acquisition of Ray Dickey give them a staff both strong and deep. Miami is considered slightly worse than last year. Zhui's gotten slightly worse and Steve Mathis has definitely lost something. Even the bullpen seems less deep. Jose Cabral is slightly worse than last year, but a top to bottom deep lineup still has Miami competitive. Carolina traded away Lorenzo Gonalez and Walt Perez, yet somehow seems exactly as good. The following players all took nice steps forward: Andrade, Jimmy Green, Jose Reyna, Alfonso Valenzuela and Martin Correa. A perverse part of me wishes they'd kept Perez and Hernandez to field an 88-win team (which is what my sheet thinks it would have been) but obviously finances come into it a bit.
Outfield:
1. Carolina Warhounds
2. San Diego Padres
3. Miami Marlins
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Milwaukee Brewers
8. Washington Nationals
9. Cincinnati Reds
10. San Francisco Giants
11. New York Mets
12. Philadelphia Phillies
13. St. Louis Cardinals
14. Los Angeles Dodgers
15. Pittsburgh Pirates
16. Montreal Expos
Infielders:
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Washington Nationals
4. Miami Marlins
5. San Diego Padres
6. Los Angeles Dodgers
7. New York Mets
8. Atlanta Braves
9. Chicago Cubs
10. Arizona Diamondbacks
11. Carolina Warhounds
12. Cincinnati Reds
13. Philadelphia Phillies
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Montreal Expos
16. Pittsburgh Pirates
Power / C:
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. San Diego Padres
3. Washington Nationals
4. San Francisco Giants
5. Philadelphia Phillies
6. Miami Marlins
7. New York Mets
8. Arizona Diamondbacks
9. Carolina Warhounds
10. Cincinnati Reds
11. Pittsburgh Pirates
12. Atlanta Braves
13. Montreal Expos
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Chicago Cubs
Rotation:
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Atlanta Braves
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Philadelphia Phillies
5. San Diego Padres
6. Miami Marlins
7. Washington Nationals
8. Chicago Cubs
9. Los Angeles Dodgers
10. Carolina Warhounds
11. New York Mets
12. Cincinnati Reds
13. Arizona Diamondbacks
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Pittsburgh Pirates
16. Montreal Expos
Bullpen:
1. San Diego Padres
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets
6. Atlanta Braves
7. Cincinnati Reds
8. San Francisco Giants
9. Montreal Expos
10. Carolina Warhounds
11. Los Angeles Dodgers
12. Miami Marlins
13. St. Louis Cardinals
14. Philadelphia Phillies
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
16. Pittsburgh Pirates
Playoff Staff Rating:
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Atlanta Braves
3. San Diego Padres
4. San Francisco Giants
5. Washington Nationals
6. Philadelphia Phillies
7. Chicago Cubs
8. New York Mets
9. Miami Marlins
10. Carolina Warhounds
11. Cincinnati Reds
12. Los Angeles Dodgers
13. Arizona Diamondbacks
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Montreal Expos
16. Pittsburgh Pirates
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
4) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
5) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
6) This is adjusted for half of the amount the GM has under/over performed the sheet to date.
7) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
8) This is counting the entire franchise roster, so minor league players may be counted if my sheet thinks that they're an upgrade.
9) And to be clear, when I say a team is better/worse than last year, I'm explicitly comparing them to where they and their players were in spring training of the prior year.
NL East:
New York Mets: 85.1 wins
Philadelphia Phillies: 82.1 wins
Montreal Expos: 62.9 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates: 58.5 wins
The Mets have improved and its almost all on the batter-side of the equation. Lots of little upgrades, but Paul Peoples has improved a lot, as has Trujillo, and Boucher provides the solid DH that they didn't have last year. The Phillies are largely similar to last year, save that Francisco Rivera has gotten even better. The Expos have regressed somewhat harshly, with Johnny Smith getting worse and Kurt Wood going to the Giants. Likewise their pitching, besides Rob Bailey, is downgraded from last year. Pittsburgh is more or less the same team as last year - there's development but it isn't at the major league level.
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers: 106.6 wins
Chicago Cubs: 80.1 wins
Cincinnati Reds: 73.7 wins
St. Louis Cardinals: 65.5 wins
Milwaukee may be overrated by my sheet (though the GM factor corrects for that somewhat) but, at least on paper, it's a pretty impressive array of talent. Raul Ferrer is better, Cliff Black is better, Yang Siu is major-league ready, Travis Steele provides an upgrade over Antonio Medina . . . the bats are better. And on the other side, Kenny Ibarra has gotten better, Javier Arrerondo has improved and the addition of Andrew Bell and Matt Hines makes the pitching even better. My sheet thinks that they're the team to beat this year. Chicago is actually expected to be a little worse than last year, which was surprising to me. The addition of Manny Rivera should help, but losing Kakuta leaves a hole at the 1B/DH slot. Still solid, but not one of the likely playoff teams. Cincinnati is largely the same team as last year, only older and with a thinned out bullpen. St. Louis seems to have regressed on offense, losing Vincent Owens, Pedro Castillo and Sumait, without finding comparable ML-level replacements.
NL West:
San Diego Padres: 99.9 wins
San Francisco Giants: 95.7 wins
Arizona Diamondbacks: 75.4 wins
Los Angeles Dodgers: 75.2 wins
San Diego seems improved, which is impressive given that they were one of the top NL teams last year. The acquisition of Lorenzo Hernandez upgrades their Catcher position. MacGruder and Aitkenhead both seem to have lost a step, but the aggregate is still very strong. Speaking of which, Jim King and Manny Sanchez both seem slightly worse, but their rotation is deeper than last year. San Francisco also looks considerably improved, though by that I mean "improved from their 89-win forecast last year" not "improved from their 78-win disappointment last year". The improvement is mostly on the offensive end, from the acquisition of Rory Strong and the development of 22 year-old Jason Simms. The pitching side is less rosy - Enrique Vazquez has lost a point of stuff and is now fragile. That said, the bottom end of their rotation is slightly better. In aggregate, San Francisco is considered one of the top five teams in the league this year, which should suggest how much of a fluke last year was. Arizona moved some pieces around, but the aggregate is about the same as last year. And the Dodgers . . . an AFK GM is never a good thing. One hopes that Wilson is okay.
NL South:
Washington Nationals: 90.4 wins
Atlanta Braves: 87.7 wins
Miami Marlins: 86.5 wins
Carolina Warhounds: 81.6 wins
The NL South looks good once again, even if not as good as the AL South. The Nationals look very good (again), even if worse than last year. Their pitching has regressed, with Robles and Garcia losing a step while Bo Moore hits free agency. On the offensive side, the quiet improvement of Varquez, Cervantes and Daniels in some way makes up for Page's slow descent and Chris Allen's sudden decline. They should still be very good. Atlanta is an estimated six wins better than last year, though last year the sheet only considered them an average team. The improvement is mostly in their rotation: Burns is a lot better, Fernando Sanchez is a lot better and the acquisition of Ray Dickey give them a staff both strong and deep. Miami is considered slightly worse than last year. Zhui's gotten slightly worse and Steve Mathis has definitely lost something. Even the bullpen seems less deep. Jose Cabral is slightly worse than last year, but a top to bottom deep lineup still has Miami competitive. Carolina traded away Lorenzo Gonalez and Walt Perez, yet somehow seems exactly as good. The following players all took nice steps forward: Andrade, Jimmy Green, Jose Reyna, Alfonso Valenzuela and Martin Correa. A perverse part of me wishes they'd kept Perez and Hernandez to field an 88-win team (which is what my sheet thinks it would have been) but obviously finances come into it a bit.
Outfield:
1. Carolina Warhounds
2. San Diego Padres
3. Miami Marlins
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Milwaukee Brewers
8. Washington Nationals
9. Cincinnati Reds
10. San Francisco Giants
11. New York Mets
12. Philadelphia Phillies
13. St. Louis Cardinals
14. Los Angeles Dodgers
15. Pittsburgh Pirates
16. Montreal Expos
Infielders:
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Washington Nationals
4. Miami Marlins
5. San Diego Padres
6. Los Angeles Dodgers
7. New York Mets
8. Atlanta Braves
9. Chicago Cubs
10. Arizona Diamondbacks
11. Carolina Warhounds
12. Cincinnati Reds
13. Philadelphia Phillies
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Montreal Expos
16. Pittsburgh Pirates
Power / C:
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. San Diego Padres
3. Washington Nationals
4. San Francisco Giants
5. Philadelphia Phillies
6. Miami Marlins
7. New York Mets
8. Arizona Diamondbacks
9. Carolina Warhounds
10. Cincinnati Reds
11. Pittsburgh Pirates
12. Atlanta Braves
13. Montreal Expos
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Chicago Cubs
Rotation:
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Atlanta Braves
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Philadelphia Phillies
5. San Diego Padres
6. Miami Marlins
7. Washington Nationals
8. Chicago Cubs
9. Los Angeles Dodgers
10. Carolina Warhounds
11. New York Mets
12. Cincinnati Reds
13. Arizona Diamondbacks
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Pittsburgh Pirates
16. Montreal Expos
Bullpen:
1. San Diego Padres
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets
6. Atlanta Braves
7. Cincinnati Reds
8. San Francisco Giants
9. Montreal Expos
10. Carolina Warhounds
11. Los Angeles Dodgers
12. Miami Marlins
13. St. Louis Cardinals
14. Philadelphia Phillies
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
16. Pittsburgh Pirates
Playoff Staff Rating:
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Atlanta Braves
3. San Diego Padres
4. San Francisco Giants
5. Washington Nationals
6. Philadelphia Phillies
7. Chicago Cubs
8. New York Mets
9. Miami Marlins
10. Carolina Warhounds
11. Cincinnati Reds
12. Los Angeles Dodgers
13. Arizona Diamondbacks
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Montreal Expos
16. Pittsburgh Pirates