Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jun 26, 2020 16:19:53 GMT -5
So. Here's the format of the info:
Team (Estimated Quality): Record, Playoff Odds (playoff Odds change), Bye Odds, Estimated Wins, Performance to Date
Estimated Quality and Performance to Date are both WAR Rating (Team WAR's standard deviation from the mean, where 0 is totally average, +1/-1 is very good / bad and +2/-2 is historically good / bad). Estimated Quality is a blend of the preseason forecast and performance to date, while Performance to Date is the WAR Rating from the season only.
So for an example:
New York Mets (-0.16): 7-5 record, 46.9% (+9.1%) playoff, 2.3% bye, 80.6 wins, +0.83 PTD
You should read: The Mets are estimated to be a slightly below average team, but are 7-5, have a 47% chance at the playoffs (9.1% better than the last time the numbers were run), a 2.3% chance at a bye, are expected to win 80.6 games overall and are, so far in the season, playing rather well.
Anyhow. Here goes nothing:
Current as of 6/28/55:
AL East:
New York Yankees (+0.93): 43-32 record, 91.4% (+13.1%) playoffs, 24.0% bye, 92.8 wins, +0.64 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-0.01): 44-31 record, 58.8% (-20.3%) playoffs, 4.1% bye, 87.7 wins, +0.65 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-1.15): 26-49 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 62.3 wins, -1.08 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-1.62): 19-56 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 52.2 wins, -1.89 PTD
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (+1.00): 40-35 record, 76.6% (+17.1%) playoffs, 11.0% bye, 90.2 wins, +0.78 PTD
Minnesota Twins (+0.90): 39-36 record, 66.8% (-15.4%) playoffs, 5.4% bye, 88.6 wins, +0.69 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.08): 36-39 record, 7.4% (-2.1%) playoffs, 0.0% bye, 80.2 wins, -0.17 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-1.17): 34-41 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 70.1 wins, -0.79 PTD
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+1.00): 45-30 record, 99.9% (+1.5%) playoffs, 50.4% bye, 95.2 wins, +0.94 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (-0.14): 33-42 record, 0.7% (-6.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 75.8 wins, -0.63 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-1.10): 35-40 record, 0.1% (+0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.6 wins, -0.82 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.66): 27-48 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 59.9 wins, -1.74 PTD
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.89): 53-22 record, 100% playoffs, 100% bye, 109.0 wins, +1.84 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.94): 47-28 record, 97.4% (+12.3%) playoffs, 0% bye, 96.9 wins, +0.94 PTD
Kansas City Royals (-0.38): 27-48 record, 0% (-0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 68.2 wins, -0.99 PTD
Houston Astros (-1.30): 29-46 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 64.3 wins, -1.50 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies
Division Winners: New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox
Wild Cards: Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins
Bubble Teams: Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Indians
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 88.9 wins
Commentary:
The Orioles have taken a nasty knock. They went 4-9 over the last two sims and played quite poorly. Suddenly their Estimated Quality is only average, their performance to date is no better than the Yankees and their record is only one win better. So the Orioles' chances of making the playoffs are greatly diminished; a one-game lead on an obviously superior team isn't an ideal situation. That said, the Orioles are still given almost a 60% of making the playoffs anyways. They have a five-game lead on the second Wild Card, and five games isn't nothing, even with 87 games left. Even if they're only expected to go 500 the rest of the way, that puts the Orioles at 87-88 wins, from which the playoffs is definitely within reach. The Yankees are playing the hare as they often do, trudging along, playing quality ball and likely to finish in the low 90s.
The White Sox jumped 17% in playoff odds over the last two weeks. Some of it was a good set of sims (8-5) and some of it was good play. Most of it was the struggles of the Twins. But you have to give the Sox credit. They've been built deep, but delicate, and they're getting absolutely destroyed by injuries. So if they're capable of being on pace for 90 wins with this many injuries, they should feel optimistic about holding everyone else off in the home stretch. The Twins have had a rough month, going 5-8 over the last two weeks and playing poorly. They're still looking good as a good team with a good record, but they're five games behind the Orioles and eight games behind the Rays, so the road to the playoffs will not be easy, even if it's probable (at 66.8%). The Indians go a disappointing 6-7 but only drop 2%. This is likely because most of their competition is struggling. The Orioles are crumbling, the Twins are crumbling, the Angels are imploding, the White Sox are looking good, but not as good as the Twins a month ago . . . the Indians are only four games back on the division. They're not out of it yet.
The Rockies continue to stomp through the AL West with their customary excellence, on pace to win the division by almost 20 games. They're now the favorite for the second bye by a goodly margin. The Angels are really struggling, going 4-9 over the last two weeks and playing some awful baseball. They're now two games behind the Athletics and should now see a route to the playoffs as requiring the greatest of heroics.
The Rangers continue to be dominant, expected to win more than 105 games pretty comfortably. The Rays continue to play at a very high level. They're currently on pace for the 2nd best record in the AL and at the moment are neck and neck with the Rockies for the 2nd best WAR. Between their continued quality play and their competitors struggling, the Rays should be considered near a lock for the playoffs, and for that matter, for the #1 Wild Card.
NL East:
New York Mets (+0.09): 41-34 record, 74.7% (-17.7%) playoff, 0.9% bye, 85.3 wins, +0.43 PTD
Philadelphia Phillies (-0.28): 38-37 record, 17.7% (+11.7%) playoff, 0% bye, 79.9 wins, -0.27 PTD
Montreal Expos (-0.62): 36-39 record, 4.2% (+2.5%) playoff, 0% bye, 75.7 wins, -0.37 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.35): 33-42 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 67.9 wins, -0.53 PTD
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+1.86): 47-28 record, 100% (+0.4%) playoffs, 96.6% bye, 102.8 wins, +2.11 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.02): 39-36 record, 10.3% (-15.2%) playoffs, 0% bye, 82.6 wins, +0.02 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.34): 37-38 record, 2.1% (-1.0%) playoffs, 0% bye, 78.6 wins, -0.29 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.18): 31-44 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 67.1 wins, -1.18 PTD
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.40): 43-32 record, 95.6% (+10.7%) playoffs, 45.6% bye, 95.8 wins, +1.19 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (+0.43): 46-29 record, 82.5% (+7.3%) playoffs, 16.8% bye, 92.5 wins, +0.69 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+0.66): 35-40 record, 13.3% (-20.0%) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 83.0 wins, +0.30 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.68): 31-44 record, 0.1% (+0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 70.3 wins, -0.79 PTD
NL South:
Washington Nationals (+1.07): 44-31 record, 93.0% (+8.1%) playoffs, 33.2% bye, 94.7 wins, +1.06 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.50): 42-33 record, 59.3% (+7.6%) playoffs, 3.2% bye, 89.0 wins, +0.93 PTD
Miami Marlins (+0.31): 41-34 record, 37.9% (-2.5%) playoffs, 1.6% bye, 86.7 wins, +0.04 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.07): 39-36 record, 9.8% (+8.6%) playoffs, 0% bye, 82.3 wins, -0.22 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
Division Winners: Washington Nationals, New York Mets
Wild Card Teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves
Bubble Teams: Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Carolina Warhounds, Montreal Expos, Cincinnati Reds
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 89.4 games.
Commentary:
The Mets have stumbled hard. They went 4-9 over the last two weeks and played badly in the process. They still have a three game lead, and have played considerably better than anyone else in the division so far, but three games isn't an enormous lead. The Phillies aren't playing well (-0.27 WAR Rating so far) but went 7-6 and are now only three games behind the Mets. It's not a good shot, but it's a lot better than it was two weeks ago. And the Expos are doggedly hanging on. They're still not playing terribly well, but they gained two games on the Mets, so their odds have actually gone up despite everything.
The Brewers continue to play great baseball, going 9-4 and now boasting the highest WAR in the league. They are currently a lock for the playoffs and almost a lock for a bye. The Cubs had a really rough 4-9 two-week stretch, and are suddenly looking up at the rest of the playoff pool. Their WAR and roster grade out as an average team and their record is only slightly above that. They're forecast at 82.6 wins which isn't bad, but the wild-card field in the NL is even more crowded than it was last year. So it's totally possible for them to make a run, but it isn't probable. Speaking of which, the Reds hang on, going 6-7 and staying juuuuust inside of striking distance.
The Padres continue to prove that they merited the bettors trust, going 9-4 and playing extremely well. They now own the 2nd best WAR in the NL as well as the 2nd highest Estimated Quality. They may still be three games behind the Dodgers, but the Padres look like an excellent team, while the Dodgers merely look pretty good. The three games probably won't hold. The Dodgers had a solid 7-6 record over the last two weeks, but lost two games of lead over the resurgent Padres. Interestingly, the Dodgers' expected wins is unchanged, and the Padres continue to play extremely well, yet the Dodgers' playoff odds have jumped 7%. Why? Part of it is that when you're in a good position, the status quo raises your odds as it reduces the number of games your opponents have to catch you. And the other part, as usual, is their competitors (minus the Padres) have generally struggled. The Giants just can't catch a break. It's like the RNG of doom hitting them. Their excellent roster has underperformed, only putting up above average WAR. And their above average WAR, somehow, has led to a below average record at 35-40. The forecast still thinks they'll finish at 83 wins and therefore have a fighting chance, but it couldn't be going much worse for the Giants. Unless their prodigal ace returned to the fold, only to explode in a bunch of injury-ridden pieces. That would make it worse. <.< >.>
The Nats continue their positive roll. They've extended their lead to two games over the Braves, and are considered by the sheet the third best team in the NL. The Braves continue to play very good ball; their playoff odds jumped considerably on account of both the Giants and Cubs taking steps back. The Marlins keep chugging along, playing average ball but maintaining a good enough record to stay in the hunt. But the team of note here is the Warhounds who went 10-3 and played really well doing it. They may be in 4th place in their division, but they're literally only five games back from the division lead. They're totally capable of pulling off a playoff spot here, even if it isn't likely.
Current as of 6/14/55:
AL East:
New York Yankees (+0.98): 34-28 record, 78.3% (-9.7%) playoffs, 15.5% bye, 91.7 wins, +0.67 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (+0.13): 40-22 record, 79.1% (+33.1%) playoffs, 14.7% bye, 91.3 wins, +1.09 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-1.37): 18-44 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 57.9 wins, -1.51 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-1.42): 18-44 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 57.6 wins, -1.59 PTD
AL Central:
Minnesota Twins (+1.00): 34-28 record, 82.2% (-10.7%) playoffs, 16.0% bye, 91.8 wins, +0.84 PTD
Chicago White Sox (+0.86): 32-30 record, 59.5% (+3.5%) playoffs, 5.1% bye, 88.8 wins, +0.47 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.10): 30-32 record, 9.5% (-6.8%) playoffs, 0.0% bye, 81.1 wins, -0.18 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-1.31): 28-34 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 68.4 wins, -0.94 PTD
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+0.99): 37-25 record, 98.4% (+1.0%) playoffs, 44.7% bye, 94.8 wins, +0.91 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (+0.09): 29-33 record, 6.8% (-19.9%) playoffs, 0% bye, 79.9 wins, -0.33 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-1.24): 27-35 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 68.0 wins, -1.02 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.69): 21-41 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 58.5 wins, -1.83 PTD
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.93): 44-18 record, 100% playoffs, 100% bye, 108.8 wins, +1.91 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.80): 36-26 record, 85.1% (+10.5%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 92.3 wins, +0.67 PTD
Kansas City Royals (-0.30): 21-41 record, 0.1% (-1.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 69.0 wins, -1.01 PTD
Houston Astros (-1.05): 25-37 record, 0% (-0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 67.4 wins, -1.08 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies
Division Winners: Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees
Wild Cards: Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
Bubble Teams: Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 89.3 wins
Commentary:
Unlike last year, the Orioles continue their incredible tear that they're on, going 10-3 over the last two weeks and playing at an extremely high level (currently 2nd in the AL in WAR). Is my sheet sold on them? Not really; it still thinks that their base roster is weak, but taking into account their current performance they are now considered an above-average team. That said they have a six-game lead over the Yankees and, were they to lose the division, an eight-game lead over the current second wild card team rival (the White Sox). When you have that much of a lead, you can suddenly play badly and still expect to make the playoffs. The Yankees honestly aren't playing badly. Their 34-28 (a little disappointing) and their performance is a little low (+0.67 instead of +0.98) but they're basically a slightly underperforming version of a strong organization. My sheet thinks that the Yankees are still the stronger team (which is pretty intuitive) but that their superiority is only worth about 6.4 games over the rest of the season. And the Orioles are six games up. It should be a crazy 100 games.
The Twins have had a rough two weeks. They're still probably one of the top four teams in the AL (which really means in the 2-4 range) but their lead over the White Sox has shrunk to two games, and their performance has slipped a bit. They're still forecast at 92 wins, but their playoff odds have dropped by 10% and bye odds by almost half. The White Sox put together some decent weeks, in WAR if not in record. However their playoff odds didn't go up all that much; between Tampa Bay and Baltimore they're going to have a hard road for the wild card. However, their increased odds reflect their considerably improved odds of beating out the Twins for the division. The Indians continue in the doldrums. There are a lot of games left to play, so things could easily turn around, but it won't be easy.
The Rockies had a bit of an off pair of sims, but they keep the same playoff odds and see their bye odds jump 12%, mostly because the Twins took a step back. The Angels just can't seem to turn the talent on their roster into wins. They went 4-9 these last two sims and now have a fairly below average WAR through the season so far. Between all of these things they dropped 20% in playoff odds and are expected to finish below 500. Anything could happen, but it's not looking great.
There's little worth writing about the Rangers. But I have to say, situations like we're seeing with the Rays (and Nats) encapsulate what I think my sheet does well. Last year the Rays were forecast to do decently (85 wins or so) and they struggled. This year, apropos of nothing, they were forecast as a solid wild card team pick, despite not having been any good last year. Because my sheet, whatever its failings (and they are many) doesn't care about what you did last year, but only about your roster quality (and how much you've over/under performed the forecast in the past). And this year the Rays are putting together a nice little run. Strong WAR, strong record, low 90s wins expected at this point, and they'd be in the hunt for the divisional lead against any team besides the Rangers. The Rays look good this year.
NL East:
New York Mets (+0.32): 37-25 record, 92.4% (+17.8%) playoff, 9.1% bye, 89.7 wins, +0.97 PTD
Philadelphia Phillies (-0.31): 31-31 record, 6.0% (-13.6%) playoff, 0.2% bye, 78.9 wins, -0.34 PTD
Montreal Expos (-0.60): 30-32 record, 1.7% (-4.6%) playoff, 0% bye, 75.7 wins, -0.28 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.55): 28-34 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 66.6 wins, -0.69 PTD
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+1.62): 38-24 record, 99.6% (+2.4%) playoffs, 85.6% bye, 100.5 wins, +1.73 PTD
Chicago Cubs (+0.07): 35-27 record, 25.5% (+3.3%) playoffs, 1.1% bye, 85.8 wins, +0.22 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.21): 31-31 record, 3.1% (+2.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 79.7 wins, -0.04 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.20): 26-36 record, 0% (-0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 67.2 wins, -1.24 PTD
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.27): 34-28 record, 84.9% (+18.6%) playoffs, 28.7% bye, 93.9 wins, +0.89 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (+0.43): 39-23 record, 75.2% (-8.1%) playoffs, 20.9% bye, 92.5 wins, +0.76 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+0.86): 30-32 record, 33.3% (-8.8%) playoffs, 2.5% bye, 86.8 wins, +0.59 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.78): 23-39 record, 0% (-0.2%) playoffs, 0% bye, 67.4 wins, -1.03 PTD
NL South:
Washington Nationals (+1.04): 36-26 record, 84.9% (+10.9%) playoffs, 34.0% bye, 94.1 wins, +1.00 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.41): 36-26 record, 51.7% (+16.7%) playoffs, 6.3% bye, 89.4 wins, +0.87 PTD
Miami Marlins (+0.39): 35-27 record, 40.4% (-36.1%) playoffs, 6.1% bye, 88.2 wins, +0.13 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.25): 29-33 record, 1.2% (+/- 0%) playoffs, 0% bye, 77.4 wins, -0.61 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals
Division Winners: San Diego Padres, New York Mets
Wild Card Teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves
Bubble Teams: Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, Montreal Expos, Carolina Warhounds
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 90.3 games.
Commentary:
The Mets are really playing well. Their WAR is really good (3rd in the NL so far) and their record is the 3rd best in the NL. My sheet isn't sold on the quality of their underlying roster, but they've got a six-game lead on their division and are playing far better ball than their competitors. A bye is unlikely, but they have a strong grip on the division. The Phillies are winning games (31-31) but their performance has been disappointing to date. They'd have a decent shot normally, but running down the Mets with a six-game deficit will be a serious challenge. The Expos have actually been playing a little better than the Phillies so far, even if they're a game behind. They have the same problems, just worse.
The Brewers went 10-3 in the last two sims and are expected to finish 6+ wins ahead of anyone else in the NL. The Cubs are holding on, playing above-average ball and are only three games out from the division and are presently the #2 Wild Card team. Their wins are a little lucky given their WAR, and they're not given a strong chance for the playoffs, but their forecast of 86 wins for the year should be considered a strong showing for a franchise that has struggled for so long. The Reds went 9-4 in the last two weeks, and overall look like a straight 500 team. This isn't a triumph or anything, but it's not impossible for them to get hot and challenge.
The Dodgers have a solid 7-6 sim, but have fallen out of the lead for the divisional forecast. The Padres went 10-3 and played their butts off. They still remain five games behind the Dodgers, but much has changed. The Padres were always considered the stronger roster by a good amount, but have now the better WAR through the year so far. The value of the Padres' superiority is, according to the sheet, around 6.4 games over the rest of the season (don't forget, the Padres' roster is stacked). So even five games down, the Padres are now considered the most likely to win the division, and the 3rd most likely to get a bye in the NL. The Dodgers still have the best record in the NL, a strong performance to-date and a low 90s win forecast. They are still considered the 5th most likely playoff team in the NL, which isn't bad. The Giants are having a very frustrating season. They went 6-7 over the last two sims, but played very strong ball (7th best WAR in the NL to date) and have a very strong roster. Despite their mediocre record (30-32) they're still expected to win 87 games, which should definitely threaten for a playoff spot.
The Marlins had a rough two weeks (part of a secretly rough season so far), going 5-8 and dragging their WAR Rating to date from a solid +0.5 to an underwhelming +0.13. They're still 35-27 with a respectable team quality forecast, yet their playoff odds have imploded, from 76.5% to 40.4%. This is less about their bad sims and more because of their competition. The Nationals only went 8-5 but they played insane ball and now they boast the 4th best WAR in the PBL and the 4th best Estimated Quality in the PBL. So they're considered a very strong team, and now that they have a good record they're in a very strong position. And the Braves went 9-4 and have also been playing very well. In fact, at this point, in light of their performances to-date, the Braves are actually considered to be a stronger team than the Marlins. Both teams are expected to finish in the high 80s, but the playoff run is going to be rough. The Nats will be a challenge to beat, and since the Dodgers have a good lead, none of the Braves, Marlins, Giants or Cubs has more than a 52% shot at the playoffs, or lower than a 25% shot. It's going to be a tight race. And let's not forget about the Warhounds who went 8-5 and pulled their WAR up from awful to bad (which doesn't sound good, but in two sims it's fairly impressive). That the NL is full of threatening playoff teams yet 13 more games didn't push the Warhounds out of the running completely is a testament to their strong play.
Current as of 5/31/55:
AL East:
New York Yankees (+1.06): 28-21 record, 88.0% (-6.6%) playoffs, 22.0% bye, 92.2 wins, +0.76 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-0.15): 30-19 record, 46.0% (+32.2%) playoffs, 2.9% bye, 85.7 wins, +0.86 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-1.22): 16-33 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 64.2 wins, -1.24 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-1.23): 15-34 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 63.1 wins, -1.30 PTD
AL Central:
Minnesota Twins (+1.12): 30-19 record, 92.9% (+13.3%) playoffs, 34.0% bye, 94.6 wins, +1.10 PTD
Chicago White Sox (+0.82): 25-24 record, 56.0% (-24.4%) playoffs, 3.4% bye, 87.5 wins, +0.23 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.17): 24-25 record, 16.3% (-20.2%) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 81.9 wins, -0.15 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-1.28): 23-26 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 70.7 wins, -0.79 PTD
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+1.07): 30-19 record, 97.4% (-1.6%) playoffs, 33.8% bye, 94.6 wins, +1.11 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (+0.24): 25-24 record, 26.7% (+2.9%) playoffs, 0.8% bye, 83.4 wins, -0.14 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-1.41): 21-28 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 67.8 wins, -1.40 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.71): 13-36 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 57.8 wins, -2.01 PTD
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.98): 37-12 record, 100% (+0.1%) playoffs, 100% bye, 107.7 wins, +2.14 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.79): 28-21 record, 74.6% (+14.5%) playoffs, 0.6% bye, 90.3 wins, +0.64 PTD
Kansas City Royals (-0.01): 18-31 record, 1.2% (-9.2%) playoffs, 0% bye, 74.7 wins, -0.64 PTD
Houston Astros (-0.99): 19-30 record, 0.1% (-0.8%) playoffs, 0% bye, 68.8 wins, -1.01 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins
Division Winners: Colorado Rockies, New York Yankees
Wild Cards: Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox
Bubble Teams: Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians, Kansas City Royals
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 88.3 wins
Commentary:
I feel like this is a repeat of last year. The New York Yankees are clearly the best team in the division, yet are in second behind another team (the Baltimore Orioles) that on paper should be no challenger. One difference is that, to date, the Orioles have actually been playing very well (unlike the Blue Jays, who just happened to win a lot). The Yankees are still the clear favorite for the division, but the Orioles are now the first team out from the playoffs. This isn't because my sheet thinks they're above average (even taking into account their performance to date); it doesn't. But with a 30-19 record simply going 500 the rest of the way puts them in legitimate playoff striking distance. Which has kind of complicated the wild-card race for the AL.
The Twins are clearly in the catbird seat (whatever that means) in the AL Central. They're playing great, they have a great team and they have a five-game lead for the division. At this point their narrative is less "Can they beat the White Sox?" and more "Will they beat out the Rockies for the second bye?" The White Sox are having a hard year. They're barely above 500, their WAR is barely above average, and between the Rays, the Orioles, the Angels and the Indians, this isn't a year to be struggling (just kidding, it never is). The Sox are still favored to be the second wild card on account of their strong roster and manager, but it's nowhere near a sure thing. Speaking of which, the Indians are slightly below average so far. They certainly have a shot of improving and challenging, but there are a lot of teams they'll have to get past.
The Rockies are the same old boring story; expected to win their division by at least ten games and competing for a bye. The Angels have had a good month, getting themselves above 500. They're not playing particularly well, but from 500, they have an outside shot.
The Rangers are Andre-the-Gianting their way through this Royal Rumble. They're expected to have *by far* the best record in the PBL. This team is clearly the best in the PBL, and they already are at 100% on a bye. Before June. Wowza. The Rays are playing very well, combining good record and performance to be the very probable first wild-card team. The Royals . . . well heck.
NL East:
New York Mets (+0.17): 29-20 record, 74.6% (+31.1%) playoff, 11.0% bye, 86.9 wins, +0.91 PTD
Philadelphia Phillies (-0.38): 26-23 record, 19.6% (-23.9%) playoff, 0.8% bye, 80.1 wins, -0.52 PTD
Montreal Expos (-0.56): 24-25 record, 6.3% (-2.8%) playoff, 0.1% bye, 76.8 wins, -0.07 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.86): 20-29 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 63.7 wins, -1.12 PTD
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+1.50): 28-21 record, 97.2% (+0.8%) playoffs, 68.8% bye, 95.3 wins, +1.57 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.04): 27-22 record, 22.2% (+3.9%) playoffs, 1.6% bye, 83.4 wins, +0.01 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.43): 22-27 record, 1.0% (-9.0%) playoffs, 0% bye, 75.7 wins, -0.50 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.05): 21-28 record, 0.1% (-0.9%) playoffs, 0% bye, 70.4 wins, -0.95 PTD
NL West:
Los Angeles Dodgers (+0.49): 32-17 record, 83.3% (+19.8%) playoffs, 37.6% bye, 92.2 wins, +1.09 PTD
San Diego Padres (+1.26): 24-25 record, 66.3% (-22.4%) playoffs, 19.0% bye, 89.6 wins, +0.76 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+0.83): 24-25 record, 42.1% (-36.2%) playoffs, 5.1% bye, 86.5 wins, +0.43 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.54): 19-30 record, 0.2% (-0.4%) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.9 wins, -0.59 PTD
NL South:
Miami Marlins (+0.59): 30-19 record, 76.5% (+12.7%) playoffs, 24.5% bye, 90.9 wins, +0.52 PTD
Washington Nationals (+0.85): 28-21 record, 74.0% (+20.0%) playoffs, 27.4% bye, 90.7 wins, +0.58 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.29): 27-22 record, 35.0% (+14.0%) playoffs, 6.8% bye, 85.8 wins, +0.82 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.37): 21-28 record, 1.2% (-7.3%) playoffs, 0% bye, 75.2 wins, -1.11 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers
Division Winners: Miami Marlins, New York Mets
Wild Card Teams: Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres
Bubble Teams: San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, Montreal Expos, Carolina Warhounds, Cincinnati Reds
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 88.6 games.
Commentary:
The Mets are seizing control of the division. They have a three-game lead and are actually playing really well; a +0.91 WAR rating so far is really good. Are they the NL's version of the Orioles? Maybe, though the Mets were considered to have the notably better roster. The major difference is that the NL East doesn't have a Yankees to beat, so simply finishing in the mid-high 80s will probably do it. The Phillies may only be three games back, but they're playing quite poorly, with a well-below average WAR so far. They're not out of it, but the Mets are the clear favorite. The Expos are actually playing almost average ball according to WAR, but they find themselves two games behind the Phillies anyways.
The Brewers by WAR have been dominant: by far the best team in the NL and only behind the Rangers in the PBL. By record, however, they've underperformed; three other teams in the NL have better records. The forecast isn't too worried; while the Brewers bye odds have dropped maybe ten percent, they have a good record and are playing really well, and should be reasonably safe (as much as any non-Rangers team is). The Cubs are playing average ball and have a good record. They're still on the outside of the wild card looking in, but they're in striking distance if they get hot.
The Dodgers continue on their first-month tear. They have the best record in the NL and the second best WAR. They have an eight-game lead on the division which, even in May, is a big deal. The only real problem is that the Dodgers, quite simply, aren't considered to have an extremely strong roster, so they aren't expected to keep this up. Even adjusted for their WAR to-date, they are still considered the 6th best pure team in the NL, but with their record they're still expected to finish with the 2nd best record in the NL. The Padres are a great roster and are playing well with a 0.76 WAR rating so far. Alas, it hasn't led to winning games. Double-alas, the Dodgers are playing out of their minds. The Padres are still expected to get to 90 wins, this isn't exactly going optimally. And speaking of teams in tough spots, the Giants are pretty much everything I just said about the Padres, minus a bit (they don't seem quite as good and are playing slightly worse). According to my sheet, the Giants and Padres are the 4th and 2nd best teams in the NL (respectively). But with both of them three games out of the wild card in a crazy competitive league, one of them probably won't make the playoffs.
The Marlins and the Nationals are in a full-on dogfight. The Nationals are considered to have the better roster and have the better WAR so far, but it's close and the Marlins have a two-game lead. Either way, both are expected to finish a little above 90 wins and both have good shots at the playoffs. The Braves have been playing their butts off, putting up the 4th best WAR in the NL and winning 27 of 49 games so far. In another division that would be pretty competitive, but they're considered worse than the Marlins or Nats, leaving them as a very capable playoff contender. The Warhounds are really struggling. That they have one of the worst batter WARs in the league isn't really a surprise, given that that's always been their weakness (Ben Hassi notwithstanding). But their pitching is struggling too (Walt Perez notwithstanding) and they're in a division with three other good teams. This just isn't their year.
I know I say this every year, but the NL Wild Card Race is going to be really stupid, and at least one good team isn't going to make it.
Oh, and for those of you interested, the average NL team is 1.3 WAR better than the average AL team so far. That's not my sheet, that's just season-to-date performance. It's not because the best teams are in the NL; three of the top four WAR teams are in the AL. But the NL has five of the top ten, while the AL has seven of the bottom ten and all of the bottom four.
Current as of 5/4/55:
AL East:
New York Yankees (+1.04): 13-9 record, 94.7% (-4.5%) playoffs, 18.1% bye, 92.6 wins, +0.46 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-0.43): 15-9 record, 13.8% (+13.0%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 80.1 wins, +0.87 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-0.88): 11-13 record, 0.3% (+0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.7 wins, -0.06 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-1.22): 4-20 record, 0% (-0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 61.4 wins, -1.47 PTD
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (+1.03): 12-12 record, 80.4% (-10.5%) playoffs, 10.7% bye, 91.5 wins, +0.51 PTD
Minnesota Twins (+0.93): 13-11 record, 79.6% (-8.8%) playoffs, 13.0% bye, 91.4 wins, +0.39 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.35): 12-12 record, 36.5% (+23.7%) playoffs, 2.0% bye, 84.7 wins, +0.22 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-1.61): 11-13 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 64.5 wins, -1.79 PTD
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+1.10): 18-6 record, 99.0% (+4.1%) playoffs, 60.1% bye, 98.1 wins, +1.43 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (+0.31): 10-14 record, 23.8% (-20.3%) playoffs, 0.8% bye, 82.3 wins, -0.29 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-1.30): 9-15 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 65.6 wins, -1.11 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.66): 6-18 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 59.0 wins, -2.45 PTD
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.91): 18-6 record, 99.9% (+0.5%) playoffs, 97.4% bye, 106.0 wins, +2.25 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.75): 12-12 record, 60.1% (-1.2%) playoffs, 1.1% bye, 88.7 wins, +0.34 PTD
Kansas City Royals (+0.21): 8-16 record, 10.4% (+2.9%) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 79.4 wins, -0.50 PTD
Houston Astros (-0.98): 12-12 record, 0.9% (+0.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.7 wins, -1.15 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies
Division Winners: New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox
Wild Cards: Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays
Bubble Teams: Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 88.2 wins
Commentary:
The Baltimore Orioles are playing out of their mind, posting the 3rd best WAR in the AL so far, and leading the spluttering Yankees by two games! They're doing so well that they're forecast to win 80 games, and have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, even higher than the Royals! Which reminds me of an old saying, "Being good is handy, but winning is more important". The Orioles are definitely winning. And the Blue Jays top a 2-10 week where they played really well with a 2-10 week where they played like donkeys. Clumsy donkeys.
Cleveland vaults up 23.7% in playoff odds, the largest swing in the AL. It wasn't for any huge reason, they only pulled their record to average and their WAR to above average, nothing to brag about. But neither the White Sox nor Twins are dominating, the Rays aren't impressing and the Royals and Angels are struggling. Sometimes you don't have to be great, just better than everyone else. The White Sox and the Twins both had bad weeks and remain in a heat, and while the Twins are a game up the White Sox are still favored by a hair.
The Rockies would be the obvious team to beat in the AL if it weren't for the Rangers; those two look like pretty likely bye teams right now. Their bye odds almost doubled, thanks to the Yankees, White Sox and Twins all struggling over the last 12 games. The Angels aren't doing well, with a 10-14 record and below average WAR. They're not out of it by a long shot, but they would be well advised to get it together soon.
The aforementioned Rangers are looking pretty murderous, and already have a bye almost locked up. The Rays are playing decently and are 12-12, but that still puts them as the cautious favorite for the second wild card spot. The Royals are still playing quite poorly and more to the point are 8-16. Perversely, they have a better shot at the playoffs now than two weeks ago. It will take a herculean effort for them to pull out of this one. They're good enough to make it possible, but not good enough to make it probable.
NL East:
New York Mets (-0.16): 13-11 record, 43.5% (-3.4%) playoff, 1.2% bye, 80.8 wins, +0.44 PTD
Philadelphia Phiilies (-0.16): 13-11 record, 43.5% (-1.6%) playoff, 1.2% bye, 80.8 wins, +0.15 PTD
Montreal Expos (-0.72): 12-12 record, 9.1% (2.4%) playoff, 0.5% bye, 74.3 wins, -0.21 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.06): 10-14 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 59.1 wins, -1.36 PTD
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+1.41): 14-10 record, 96.4% (+0%) playoffs, 79.6% bye, 97.2 wins, +1.46 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.07): 14-10 record, 18.3% (+3.6%) playoffs, 1.8% bye, 82.7 wins, -0.05 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.29): 13-11 record, 10.0% (+5.8%) playoffs, 0.7% bye, 79.5 wins, -0.06 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-0.99): 13-11 record, 1.0% (+0.6%) playoffs, 0% bye, 72.6 wins, -0.74 PTD
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.33): 12-12 record, 88.7% (-2.8%) playoffs, 41.1% bye, 94.3 wins, +0.57 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+1.01): 12-12 record, 78.3% (-5.3%) playoffs, 23.3% bye, 91.2 wins, +0.80 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (+0.31): 17-7 record, 63.5% (+63.5%) playoffs, 13.3% bye, 89.4 wins, +1.09 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.35): 9-15 record, 0.6% (-1.8%) playoffs, 0% bye, 74.9 wins, +0.07 PTD
NL South:
Miami Marlins (+0.59): 14-10 record, 63.8 (-3.1%) playoffs, 18.9% bye, 89.1 wins, +0.46 PTD
Washington Nationals (+0.85): 10-14 record, 54.0% (-17.3%) playoffs, 12.8% bye, 87.6 wins, +0.31 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.02): 13-11 record, 21.0% (-3.3%) playoffs, 2.5% bye, 82.5 wins, +0.33 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.10): 11-13 record, 8.5% (-3.1%) playoffs, 0.4% bye, 79.3 wins, -0.87 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
Division Winners: Miami Marlins, New York Mets / Philadelphia Phillies
Wild Card Teams: San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers
Bubble Teams: Washington Nationals, New York Mets / Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Carolina Warhounds, Cincinnati Reds, Montreal Expos, St. Louis Cardinals
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 88.9 games.
Commentary:
The NL East remains tight, with the Phillies pulling even with the Mets in both record and adjusted WAR. The Expos remain a game out, and while not playing particularly well, definitely have a chance of playing the spoiler.
The Brewers have a good record (14-10) and the best WAR and adjusted WAR in the NL by a good margin. But their playoff odds haven't gone up, mostly on account of the rest of their division. The Cubs are playing average ball with a 14-10 record, which gives them decent maneuvering room. The Reds are doing the same at one game worse, the Cards still have a good record (13-11) but very low WAR. Put it together and there's a respectable chance that *someone* of those bottom three teams will win a goodly number of games. If you're curious, the average number of games won by the 2nd finishing NL Central team is 85, and 16% of the time that team won 90+ games. So even if you're doing as well as the Brewers (so far), having a division of teams that are all above 500 isn't an ideal situation.
The story of the NL West has to be about the Dodgers, the league's most surprising team so far. They're 17-7 and posting the second best WAR in the National League. And they've jumped 29.3% in their playoff odds from two weeks ago. They're forecast to finish just under 90 wins, which is certainly enough to contend for a playoff spot. So how are the Padres and the Giants still rated well above the Dodgers? Despite being five games down, both teams are playing well (WAR Ratings above +0.50) and both were considered top teams in the NL going into the season. We've only seen 24 games so far; the Padres and the Giants are still really, really good. In fact, the Padres and Giants only dropped 2-5% in playoff odds, despite their average record. The Dodgers gained almost 30%; where did it come from?
The NL South is having a weird year. Miami is playing well enough (14-10, solid WAR) but those two only combine to put them about where the Dodgers are by the end of the year. The Nationals are very good (with decent WAR so far), but are 10-14 which puts them a few games lower than the Marlins in the final reckoning. The Braves are 13-11 and playing above average ball, but those things put them behind a lot of other teams. And the Warhounds are both 11-13 and playing quite badly so far, which puts them in a very uncomfortable place. The real problem for the NL South is that they have to beat one of the Padres, Giants and Dodgers for a Wild Card spot, and that's looking like an increasingly difficult task.
Current as of 4/19/55
AL East:
New York Yankees (+1.11): 7-5 record, 99.1% (+0.4%) playoffs, 20.6% bye, 94.1 wins, +0.57 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-0.85): 6-6 record, 0.8% (-0.6%) playoffs, 0% bye, 72.6 wins, -0.85 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-1.09): 6-6 record, 0.2% (+0.2%) playoffs, 0% bye, 69.9 wins, -0.84 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-0.92): 2-10 record, 0.1% (-0.6%) playoffs, 0% bye, 67.6 wins, +0.29 PTD
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (+1.13): 8-4 record, 90.9% (+9.7%) playoffs, 28.0% bye, 95.3 wins, +0.86 PTD
Minnesota Twins (+1.15): 7-5 record, 88.4% (+11.8%) playoffs, 24.7% bye, 94.5 wins, +1.60 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.14): 5-7 record, 12.8% (-14.5%) playoffs, 0.6% bye, 81.8 wins, -1.15 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-1.49): 7-5 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 66.6 wins, -1.16 PTD
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+1.01): 10-2 record, 94.9% (+16.0%) playoffs, 33.3% bye, 96.0 wins, +1.15 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (+0.55): 6-6 record, 44.1% (-0.3%) playoffs, 3.2% bye, 87.1 wins, +0.91 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-1.10): 5-7 record, 0% (-0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 68.7 wins, +0.28 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.58): 2-10 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 60.6 wins, -2.48 PTD
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.78): 10-2 record, 99.4% (+2.2%) playoffs, 88.7% bye, 104.1 wins, +1.74 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.75): 6-6 record, 61.3% (+1.5%) playoffs, 1.8% bye, 89.2 wins, +0.11 PTD
Kansas City Royals (+0.14): 3-9 record, 7.5% (-25.5%) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 79.9 wins, -1.34 PTD
Houston Astros (-0.91): 6-6 record, 0.2% (-0.3%) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.7 wins, -0.80 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies
Division Winners: Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees
Wild Cards: Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays
Bubble Teams: Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians, Kansas City Royals
Commentary:
Let's talk about how unlucky the Jays have been. They are dead average in wOBA, but far below average in runs scored. Their FIP is far better than average (0.44 runs per game) and their xFIP is better (0.48 runs per game better than average). And their BABIP is actually lower than average (by 6 points). Yet they've actually allowed an average number of runs. So they hit average and pitched above average, yet they scored below average runs and allowed average runs. They have the performance of a 7-5 team, but the pythag of a 5-7 team. And of course, they've gone 2-10 instead of 5-7. Their wins are by 7 and 2 runs, and their losses are by 1 three times, by 2 four times and by 3 three times. They're getting screwed by the RNG coming and going.
Aside from that the AL East looks exactly like the AL East has looked each of the last five years. The White Sox and Twins have both looked very strong so far, while the Indians have struggled. The Rockies are playing extremely well and the Angels, despite a mediocre record, are playing well enough to retain a realistic shot at the playoffs. The Rangers are wrecking everything and look like the obvious team to beat in the AL. The Rays, like the Angels, are only playing about average, but their strong roster, combined with the Indians and Royals' struggling, mean they still have a pretty reasonable route to the playoffs. And the Royals, true to form, are really struggling right now (just like last year). Except their roster this year is worse, so they're really going to have to step it up to have a shot.
NL East:
New York Mets (-0.16): 7-5 record, 46.9% (+9.1%) playoff, 2.3% bye, 80.6 wins, +0.83 PTD
Philadelphia Phiilies (-0.13): 6-6 record, 45.1% (-1.5%) playoff, 1.4% bye, 80.0 wins, +0.59 PTD
Montreal Expos (-0.80): 5-7 record, 6.7% (-4.1%) playoff, 0% bye, 71.9 wins, -0.43 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.18): 5-7 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 57.3 wins, -1.70 PTD
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+1.26): 6-6 record, 96.4% (+0.3%) playoffs, 61.6% bye, 94.7 wins, +0.60 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.05): 6-6 record, 14.7% (-2.6%) playoffs, 1.6% bye, 80.8 wins, +0.07 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.36): 5-7 record, 4.2% (-2.8%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 76.5 wins, -0.37 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.07): 8-4 record, 0.4% (-1.0%) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 72.0 wins, -1.13 PTD
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.33): 6-6 record, 91.5% (-4.7%) playoffs, 53.6% bye, 95.4 wins, +0.18 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+1.06): 6-6 record, 83.6% (+1.6%) playoffs, 26.5% bye, 92.5 wins, +1.07 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (+0.16): 8-4 record, 34.2% (+13.1%) playoffs, 2.5% bye, 85.1 wins, +0.69 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.46): 5-7 record, 2.4% (-3.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 75.5 wins, -0.37 PTD
NL South:
Washington Nationals (+0.88): 5-7 record, 71.3% (-7.9%) playoffs, 23.6% bye, 89.7 wins, +0.24 PTD
Miami Marlins (+0.65): 7-5 record, 66.9% (+10.2%) playoffs, 20.1% bye, 89.2 wins, +0.82 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.04): 7-5 record, 24.3% (+8.2%) playoffs, 2.2% bye, 82.8 wins, +0.68 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (+0.00): 4-8 record, 11.6% (-15.1%) playoffs, 1.3% bye, 79.3 wins, -0.70 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
Division Winners: Washington Nationals, New York Mets
Wild Card Teams: San Francisco Giants, Miami Marlins
Bubble Teams: Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Carolina Warhounds, Montreal Expos, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks
Commentary:
Only two teams in the NL have a below 1% chance at the playoffs right now. Let that sink in.
The Mets have slightly outpaced the Phillies out of the gate, leading in both record and WAR. It's a slight edge, but it counts. The Brewers haven't impressed, but are throwing up respectable WAR so far. The Cubs aren't doing badly, but they'll need to do more than perform at a 500 level if they want to make the playoffs. The Cardinals may be 8-4, but their WAR Rating is awful so far (-1.13) and the forecast gives them no love. The Padres are playing about average but are still given a 90%+ chance at the playoffs. They're still considered better than the Brewers, but have a lower bye chance because it's much more likely the Padres will lose their division (to the Giants most likely) than that the Brewers will lose theirs. The Giants are only 6-6 but are playing well so far. The Dodgers have won (8-4) and are playing well, but that has only moved them up into the upper echelons of the bubble teams so far (where they are the most likely alternate Wild Card - Philly is more likely to get in by winning the division). They just have an uphill road right now because they need to beat one of the Nats, Marlins, Padres and Giants and none of those looks easy at this moment. The Nats are struggling (again) and Miami is playing well (again) and at this moment the sheet gives them very similar odds, still believing (perhaps erroneously) that the Nats have the strong roster. The Braves are playing well so far, where the Warhounds picked the wrong year/division to have a weak first two weeks.
Philosophical Question: When a team is expected to be 500 or worse, and is given reasonably low playoff odds (8% or whatnot) why do their odds drop when they perform exactly in line with their forecast?
The answer is pretty straightforward: a 500 team (by which I mean that should win 50% of their games, not a team that actually does) can absolutely make the playoffs if they get lucky with their game results (ie, they win more than expected). That 8% isn't their chances of making the playoffs if they go 500; if they go 500 their chances are zero. The 8% is the chance they get lucky enough to outperform their estimated quality. So, perversely, pulling a Dennis Green and proving that they were who we thought they were drops their odds. Most teams need a little luck to make the playoffs; 500 teams need more than most.
Team (Estimated Quality): Record, Playoff Odds (playoff Odds change), Bye Odds, Estimated Wins, Performance to Date
Estimated Quality and Performance to Date are both WAR Rating (Team WAR's standard deviation from the mean, where 0 is totally average, +1/-1 is very good / bad and +2/-2 is historically good / bad). Estimated Quality is a blend of the preseason forecast and performance to date, while Performance to Date is the WAR Rating from the season only.
So for an example:
New York Mets (-0.16): 7-5 record, 46.9% (+9.1%) playoff, 2.3% bye, 80.6 wins, +0.83 PTD
You should read: The Mets are estimated to be a slightly below average team, but are 7-5, have a 47% chance at the playoffs (9.1% better than the last time the numbers were run), a 2.3% chance at a bye, are expected to win 80.6 games overall and are, so far in the season, playing rather well.
Anyhow. Here goes nothing:
Current as of 6/28/55:
AL East:
New York Yankees (+0.93): 43-32 record, 91.4% (+13.1%) playoffs, 24.0% bye, 92.8 wins, +0.64 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-0.01): 44-31 record, 58.8% (-20.3%) playoffs, 4.1% bye, 87.7 wins, +0.65 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-1.15): 26-49 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 62.3 wins, -1.08 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-1.62): 19-56 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 52.2 wins, -1.89 PTD
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (+1.00): 40-35 record, 76.6% (+17.1%) playoffs, 11.0% bye, 90.2 wins, +0.78 PTD
Minnesota Twins (+0.90): 39-36 record, 66.8% (-15.4%) playoffs, 5.4% bye, 88.6 wins, +0.69 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.08): 36-39 record, 7.4% (-2.1%) playoffs, 0.0% bye, 80.2 wins, -0.17 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-1.17): 34-41 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 70.1 wins, -0.79 PTD
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+1.00): 45-30 record, 99.9% (+1.5%) playoffs, 50.4% bye, 95.2 wins, +0.94 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (-0.14): 33-42 record, 0.7% (-6.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 75.8 wins, -0.63 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-1.10): 35-40 record, 0.1% (+0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.6 wins, -0.82 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.66): 27-48 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 59.9 wins, -1.74 PTD
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.89): 53-22 record, 100% playoffs, 100% bye, 109.0 wins, +1.84 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.94): 47-28 record, 97.4% (+12.3%) playoffs, 0% bye, 96.9 wins, +0.94 PTD
Kansas City Royals (-0.38): 27-48 record, 0% (-0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 68.2 wins, -0.99 PTD
Houston Astros (-1.30): 29-46 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 64.3 wins, -1.50 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies
Division Winners: New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox
Wild Cards: Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins
Bubble Teams: Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Indians
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 88.9 wins
Commentary:
The Orioles have taken a nasty knock. They went 4-9 over the last two sims and played quite poorly. Suddenly their Estimated Quality is only average, their performance to date is no better than the Yankees and their record is only one win better. So the Orioles' chances of making the playoffs are greatly diminished; a one-game lead on an obviously superior team isn't an ideal situation. That said, the Orioles are still given almost a 60% of making the playoffs anyways. They have a five-game lead on the second Wild Card, and five games isn't nothing, even with 87 games left. Even if they're only expected to go 500 the rest of the way, that puts the Orioles at 87-88 wins, from which the playoffs is definitely within reach. The Yankees are playing the hare as they often do, trudging along, playing quality ball and likely to finish in the low 90s.
The White Sox jumped 17% in playoff odds over the last two weeks. Some of it was a good set of sims (8-5) and some of it was good play. Most of it was the struggles of the Twins. But you have to give the Sox credit. They've been built deep, but delicate, and they're getting absolutely destroyed by injuries. So if they're capable of being on pace for 90 wins with this many injuries, they should feel optimistic about holding everyone else off in the home stretch. The Twins have had a rough month, going 5-8 over the last two weeks and playing poorly. They're still looking good as a good team with a good record, but they're five games behind the Orioles and eight games behind the Rays, so the road to the playoffs will not be easy, even if it's probable (at 66.8%). The Indians go a disappointing 6-7 but only drop 2%. This is likely because most of their competition is struggling. The Orioles are crumbling, the Twins are crumbling, the Angels are imploding, the White Sox are looking good, but not as good as the Twins a month ago . . . the Indians are only four games back on the division. They're not out of it yet.
The Rockies continue to stomp through the AL West with their customary excellence, on pace to win the division by almost 20 games. They're now the favorite for the second bye by a goodly margin. The Angels are really struggling, going 4-9 over the last two weeks and playing some awful baseball. They're now two games behind the Athletics and should now see a route to the playoffs as requiring the greatest of heroics.
The Rangers continue to be dominant, expected to win more than 105 games pretty comfortably. The Rays continue to play at a very high level. They're currently on pace for the 2nd best record in the AL and at the moment are neck and neck with the Rockies for the 2nd best WAR. Between their continued quality play and their competitors struggling, the Rays should be considered near a lock for the playoffs, and for that matter, for the #1 Wild Card.
NL East:
New York Mets (+0.09): 41-34 record, 74.7% (-17.7%) playoff, 0.9% bye, 85.3 wins, +0.43 PTD
Philadelphia Phillies (-0.28): 38-37 record, 17.7% (+11.7%) playoff, 0% bye, 79.9 wins, -0.27 PTD
Montreal Expos (-0.62): 36-39 record, 4.2% (+2.5%) playoff, 0% bye, 75.7 wins, -0.37 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.35): 33-42 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 67.9 wins, -0.53 PTD
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+1.86): 47-28 record, 100% (+0.4%) playoffs, 96.6% bye, 102.8 wins, +2.11 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.02): 39-36 record, 10.3% (-15.2%) playoffs, 0% bye, 82.6 wins, +0.02 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.34): 37-38 record, 2.1% (-1.0%) playoffs, 0% bye, 78.6 wins, -0.29 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.18): 31-44 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 67.1 wins, -1.18 PTD
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.40): 43-32 record, 95.6% (+10.7%) playoffs, 45.6% bye, 95.8 wins, +1.19 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (+0.43): 46-29 record, 82.5% (+7.3%) playoffs, 16.8% bye, 92.5 wins, +0.69 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+0.66): 35-40 record, 13.3% (-20.0%) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 83.0 wins, +0.30 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.68): 31-44 record, 0.1% (+0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 70.3 wins, -0.79 PTD
NL South:
Washington Nationals (+1.07): 44-31 record, 93.0% (+8.1%) playoffs, 33.2% bye, 94.7 wins, +1.06 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.50): 42-33 record, 59.3% (+7.6%) playoffs, 3.2% bye, 89.0 wins, +0.93 PTD
Miami Marlins (+0.31): 41-34 record, 37.9% (-2.5%) playoffs, 1.6% bye, 86.7 wins, +0.04 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.07): 39-36 record, 9.8% (+8.6%) playoffs, 0% bye, 82.3 wins, -0.22 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
Division Winners: Washington Nationals, New York Mets
Wild Card Teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves
Bubble Teams: Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Carolina Warhounds, Montreal Expos, Cincinnati Reds
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 89.4 games.
Commentary:
The Mets have stumbled hard. They went 4-9 over the last two weeks and played badly in the process. They still have a three game lead, and have played considerably better than anyone else in the division so far, but three games isn't an enormous lead. The Phillies aren't playing well (-0.27 WAR Rating so far) but went 7-6 and are now only three games behind the Mets. It's not a good shot, but it's a lot better than it was two weeks ago. And the Expos are doggedly hanging on. They're still not playing terribly well, but they gained two games on the Mets, so their odds have actually gone up despite everything.
The Brewers continue to play great baseball, going 9-4 and now boasting the highest WAR in the league. They are currently a lock for the playoffs and almost a lock for a bye. The Cubs had a really rough 4-9 two-week stretch, and are suddenly looking up at the rest of the playoff pool. Their WAR and roster grade out as an average team and their record is only slightly above that. They're forecast at 82.6 wins which isn't bad, but the wild-card field in the NL is even more crowded than it was last year. So it's totally possible for them to make a run, but it isn't probable. Speaking of which, the Reds hang on, going 6-7 and staying juuuuust inside of striking distance.
The Padres continue to prove that they merited the bettors trust, going 9-4 and playing extremely well. They now own the 2nd best WAR in the NL as well as the 2nd highest Estimated Quality. They may still be three games behind the Dodgers, but the Padres look like an excellent team, while the Dodgers merely look pretty good. The three games probably won't hold. The Dodgers had a solid 7-6 record over the last two weeks, but lost two games of lead over the resurgent Padres. Interestingly, the Dodgers' expected wins is unchanged, and the Padres continue to play extremely well, yet the Dodgers' playoff odds have jumped 7%. Why? Part of it is that when you're in a good position, the status quo raises your odds as it reduces the number of games your opponents have to catch you. And the other part, as usual, is their competitors (minus the Padres) have generally struggled. The Giants just can't catch a break. It's like the RNG of doom hitting them. Their excellent roster has underperformed, only putting up above average WAR. And their above average WAR, somehow, has led to a below average record at 35-40. The forecast still thinks they'll finish at 83 wins and therefore have a fighting chance, but it couldn't be going much worse for the Giants. Unless their prodigal ace returned to the fold, only to explode in a bunch of injury-ridden pieces. That would make it worse. <.< >.>
The Nats continue their positive roll. They've extended their lead to two games over the Braves, and are considered by the sheet the third best team in the NL. The Braves continue to play very good ball; their playoff odds jumped considerably on account of both the Giants and Cubs taking steps back. The Marlins keep chugging along, playing average ball but maintaining a good enough record to stay in the hunt. But the team of note here is the Warhounds who went 10-3 and played really well doing it. They may be in 4th place in their division, but they're literally only five games back from the division lead. They're totally capable of pulling off a playoff spot here, even if it isn't likely.
Current as of 6/14/55:
AL East:
New York Yankees (+0.98): 34-28 record, 78.3% (-9.7%) playoffs, 15.5% bye, 91.7 wins, +0.67 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (+0.13): 40-22 record, 79.1% (+33.1%) playoffs, 14.7% bye, 91.3 wins, +1.09 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-1.37): 18-44 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 57.9 wins, -1.51 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-1.42): 18-44 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 57.6 wins, -1.59 PTD
AL Central:
Minnesota Twins (+1.00): 34-28 record, 82.2% (-10.7%) playoffs, 16.0% bye, 91.8 wins, +0.84 PTD
Chicago White Sox (+0.86): 32-30 record, 59.5% (+3.5%) playoffs, 5.1% bye, 88.8 wins, +0.47 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.10): 30-32 record, 9.5% (-6.8%) playoffs, 0.0% bye, 81.1 wins, -0.18 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-1.31): 28-34 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 68.4 wins, -0.94 PTD
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+0.99): 37-25 record, 98.4% (+1.0%) playoffs, 44.7% bye, 94.8 wins, +0.91 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (+0.09): 29-33 record, 6.8% (-19.9%) playoffs, 0% bye, 79.9 wins, -0.33 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-1.24): 27-35 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 68.0 wins, -1.02 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.69): 21-41 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 58.5 wins, -1.83 PTD
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.93): 44-18 record, 100% playoffs, 100% bye, 108.8 wins, +1.91 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.80): 36-26 record, 85.1% (+10.5%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 92.3 wins, +0.67 PTD
Kansas City Royals (-0.30): 21-41 record, 0.1% (-1.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 69.0 wins, -1.01 PTD
Houston Astros (-1.05): 25-37 record, 0% (-0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 67.4 wins, -1.08 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies
Division Winners: Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees
Wild Cards: Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
Bubble Teams: Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 89.3 wins
Commentary:
Unlike last year, the Orioles continue their incredible tear that they're on, going 10-3 over the last two weeks and playing at an extremely high level (currently 2nd in the AL in WAR). Is my sheet sold on them? Not really; it still thinks that their base roster is weak, but taking into account their current performance they are now considered an above-average team. That said they have a six-game lead over the Yankees and, were they to lose the division, an eight-game lead over the current second wild card team rival (the White Sox). When you have that much of a lead, you can suddenly play badly and still expect to make the playoffs. The Yankees honestly aren't playing badly. Their 34-28 (a little disappointing) and their performance is a little low (+0.67 instead of +0.98) but they're basically a slightly underperforming version of a strong organization. My sheet thinks that the Yankees are still the stronger team (which is pretty intuitive) but that their superiority is only worth about 6.4 games over the rest of the season. And the Orioles are six games up. It should be a crazy 100 games.
The Twins have had a rough two weeks. They're still probably one of the top four teams in the AL (which really means in the 2-4 range) but their lead over the White Sox has shrunk to two games, and their performance has slipped a bit. They're still forecast at 92 wins, but their playoff odds have dropped by 10% and bye odds by almost half. The White Sox put together some decent weeks, in WAR if not in record. However their playoff odds didn't go up all that much; between Tampa Bay and Baltimore they're going to have a hard road for the wild card. However, their increased odds reflect their considerably improved odds of beating out the Twins for the division. The Indians continue in the doldrums. There are a lot of games left to play, so things could easily turn around, but it won't be easy.
The Rockies had a bit of an off pair of sims, but they keep the same playoff odds and see their bye odds jump 12%, mostly because the Twins took a step back. The Angels just can't seem to turn the talent on their roster into wins. They went 4-9 these last two sims and now have a fairly below average WAR through the season so far. Between all of these things they dropped 20% in playoff odds and are expected to finish below 500. Anything could happen, but it's not looking great.
There's little worth writing about the Rangers. But I have to say, situations like we're seeing with the Rays (and Nats) encapsulate what I think my sheet does well. Last year the Rays were forecast to do decently (85 wins or so) and they struggled. This year, apropos of nothing, they were forecast as a solid wild card team pick, despite not having been any good last year. Because my sheet, whatever its failings (and they are many) doesn't care about what you did last year, but only about your roster quality (and how much you've over/under performed the forecast in the past). And this year the Rays are putting together a nice little run. Strong WAR, strong record, low 90s wins expected at this point, and they'd be in the hunt for the divisional lead against any team besides the Rangers. The Rays look good this year.
NL East:
New York Mets (+0.32): 37-25 record, 92.4% (+17.8%) playoff, 9.1% bye, 89.7 wins, +0.97 PTD
Philadelphia Phillies (-0.31): 31-31 record, 6.0% (-13.6%) playoff, 0.2% bye, 78.9 wins, -0.34 PTD
Montreal Expos (-0.60): 30-32 record, 1.7% (-4.6%) playoff, 0% bye, 75.7 wins, -0.28 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.55): 28-34 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 66.6 wins, -0.69 PTD
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+1.62): 38-24 record, 99.6% (+2.4%) playoffs, 85.6% bye, 100.5 wins, +1.73 PTD
Chicago Cubs (+0.07): 35-27 record, 25.5% (+3.3%) playoffs, 1.1% bye, 85.8 wins, +0.22 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.21): 31-31 record, 3.1% (+2.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 79.7 wins, -0.04 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.20): 26-36 record, 0% (-0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 67.2 wins, -1.24 PTD
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.27): 34-28 record, 84.9% (+18.6%) playoffs, 28.7% bye, 93.9 wins, +0.89 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (+0.43): 39-23 record, 75.2% (-8.1%) playoffs, 20.9% bye, 92.5 wins, +0.76 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+0.86): 30-32 record, 33.3% (-8.8%) playoffs, 2.5% bye, 86.8 wins, +0.59 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.78): 23-39 record, 0% (-0.2%) playoffs, 0% bye, 67.4 wins, -1.03 PTD
NL South:
Washington Nationals (+1.04): 36-26 record, 84.9% (+10.9%) playoffs, 34.0% bye, 94.1 wins, +1.00 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.41): 36-26 record, 51.7% (+16.7%) playoffs, 6.3% bye, 89.4 wins, +0.87 PTD
Miami Marlins (+0.39): 35-27 record, 40.4% (-36.1%) playoffs, 6.1% bye, 88.2 wins, +0.13 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.25): 29-33 record, 1.2% (+/- 0%) playoffs, 0% bye, 77.4 wins, -0.61 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals
Division Winners: San Diego Padres, New York Mets
Wild Card Teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves
Bubble Teams: Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, Montreal Expos, Carolina Warhounds
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 90.3 games.
Commentary:
The Mets are really playing well. Their WAR is really good (3rd in the NL so far) and their record is the 3rd best in the NL. My sheet isn't sold on the quality of their underlying roster, but they've got a six-game lead on their division and are playing far better ball than their competitors. A bye is unlikely, but they have a strong grip on the division. The Phillies are winning games (31-31) but their performance has been disappointing to date. They'd have a decent shot normally, but running down the Mets with a six-game deficit will be a serious challenge. The Expos have actually been playing a little better than the Phillies so far, even if they're a game behind. They have the same problems, just worse.
The Brewers went 10-3 in the last two sims and are expected to finish 6+ wins ahead of anyone else in the NL. The Cubs are holding on, playing above-average ball and are only three games out from the division and are presently the #2 Wild Card team. Their wins are a little lucky given their WAR, and they're not given a strong chance for the playoffs, but their forecast of 86 wins for the year should be considered a strong showing for a franchise that has struggled for so long. The Reds went 9-4 in the last two weeks, and overall look like a straight 500 team. This isn't a triumph or anything, but it's not impossible for them to get hot and challenge.
The Dodgers have a solid 7-6 sim, but have fallen out of the lead for the divisional forecast. The Padres went 10-3 and played their butts off. They still remain five games behind the Dodgers, but much has changed. The Padres were always considered the stronger roster by a good amount, but have now the better WAR through the year so far. The value of the Padres' superiority is, according to the sheet, around 6.4 games over the rest of the season (don't forget, the Padres' roster is stacked). So even five games down, the Padres are now considered the most likely to win the division, and the 3rd most likely to get a bye in the NL. The Dodgers still have the best record in the NL, a strong performance to-date and a low 90s win forecast. They are still considered the 5th most likely playoff team in the NL, which isn't bad. The Giants are having a very frustrating season. They went 6-7 over the last two sims, but played very strong ball (7th best WAR in the NL to date) and have a very strong roster. Despite their mediocre record (30-32) they're still expected to win 87 games, which should definitely threaten for a playoff spot.
The Marlins had a rough two weeks (part of a secretly rough season so far), going 5-8 and dragging their WAR Rating to date from a solid +0.5 to an underwhelming +0.13. They're still 35-27 with a respectable team quality forecast, yet their playoff odds have imploded, from 76.5% to 40.4%. This is less about their bad sims and more because of their competition. The Nationals only went 8-5 but they played insane ball and now they boast the 4th best WAR in the PBL and the 4th best Estimated Quality in the PBL. So they're considered a very strong team, and now that they have a good record they're in a very strong position. And the Braves went 9-4 and have also been playing very well. In fact, at this point, in light of their performances to-date, the Braves are actually considered to be a stronger team than the Marlins. Both teams are expected to finish in the high 80s, but the playoff run is going to be rough. The Nats will be a challenge to beat, and since the Dodgers have a good lead, none of the Braves, Marlins, Giants or Cubs has more than a 52% shot at the playoffs, or lower than a 25% shot. It's going to be a tight race. And let's not forget about the Warhounds who went 8-5 and pulled their WAR up from awful to bad (which doesn't sound good, but in two sims it's fairly impressive). That the NL is full of threatening playoff teams yet 13 more games didn't push the Warhounds out of the running completely is a testament to their strong play.
Current as of 5/31/55:
AL East:
New York Yankees (+1.06): 28-21 record, 88.0% (-6.6%) playoffs, 22.0% bye, 92.2 wins, +0.76 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-0.15): 30-19 record, 46.0% (+32.2%) playoffs, 2.9% bye, 85.7 wins, +0.86 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-1.22): 16-33 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 64.2 wins, -1.24 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-1.23): 15-34 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 63.1 wins, -1.30 PTD
AL Central:
Minnesota Twins (+1.12): 30-19 record, 92.9% (+13.3%) playoffs, 34.0% bye, 94.6 wins, +1.10 PTD
Chicago White Sox (+0.82): 25-24 record, 56.0% (-24.4%) playoffs, 3.4% bye, 87.5 wins, +0.23 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.17): 24-25 record, 16.3% (-20.2%) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 81.9 wins, -0.15 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-1.28): 23-26 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 70.7 wins, -0.79 PTD
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+1.07): 30-19 record, 97.4% (-1.6%) playoffs, 33.8% bye, 94.6 wins, +1.11 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (+0.24): 25-24 record, 26.7% (+2.9%) playoffs, 0.8% bye, 83.4 wins, -0.14 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-1.41): 21-28 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 67.8 wins, -1.40 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.71): 13-36 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 57.8 wins, -2.01 PTD
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.98): 37-12 record, 100% (+0.1%) playoffs, 100% bye, 107.7 wins, +2.14 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.79): 28-21 record, 74.6% (+14.5%) playoffs, 0.6% bye, 90.3 wins, +0.64 PTD
Kansas City Royals (-0.01): 18-31 record, 1.2% (-9.2%) playoffs, 0% bye, 74.7 wins, -0.64 PTD
Houston Astros (-0.99): 19-30 record, 0.1% (-0.8%) playoffs, 0% bye, 68.8 wins, -1.01 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins
Division Winners: Colorado Rockies, New York Yankees
Wild Cards: Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox
Bubble Teams: Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians, Kansas City Royals
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 88.3 wins
Commentary:
I feel like this is a repeat of last year. The New York Yankees are clearly the best team in the division, yet are in second behind another team (the Baltimore Orioles) that on paper should be no challenger. One difference is that, to date, the Orioles have actually been playing very well (unlike the Blue Jays, who just happened to win a lot). The Yankees are still the clear favorite for the division, but the Orioles are now the first team out from the playoffs. This isn't because my sheet thinks they're above average (even taking into account their performance to date); it doesn't. But with a 30-19 record simply going 500 the rest of the way puts them in legitimate playoff striking distance. Which has kind of complicated the wild-card race for the AL.
The Twins are clearly in the catbird seat (whatever that means) in the AL Central. They're playing great, they have a great team and they have a five-game lead for the division. At this point their narrative is less "Can they beat the White Sox?" and more "Will they beat out the Rockies for the second bye?" The White Sox are having a hard year. They're barely above 500, their WAR is barely above average, and between the Rays, the Orioles, the Angels and the Indians, this isn't a year to be struggling (just kidding, it never is). The Sox are still favored to be the second wild card on account of their strong roster and manager, but it's nowhere near a sure thing. Speaking of which, the Indians are slightly below average so far. They certainly have a shot of improving and challenging, but there are a lot of teams they'll have to get past.
The Rockies are the same old boring story; expected to win their division by at least ten games and competing for a bye. The Angels have had a good month, getting themselves above 500. They're not playing particularly well, but from 500, they have an outside shot.
The Rangers are Andre-the-Gianting their way through this Royal Rumble. They're expected to have *by far* the best record in the PBL. This team is clearly the best in the PBL, and they already are at 100% on a bye. Before June. Wowza. The Rays are playing very well, combining good record and performance to be the very probable first wild-card team. The Royals . . . well heck.
NL East:
New York Mets (+0.17): 29-20 record, 74.6% (+31.1%) playoff, 11.0% bye, 86.9 wins, +0.91 PTD
Philadelphia Phillies (-0.38): 26-23 record, 19.6% (-23.9%) playoff, 0.8% bye, 80.1 wins, -0.52 PTD
Montreal Expos (-0.56): 24-25 record, 6.3% (-2.8%) playoff, 0.1% bye, 76.8 wins, -0.07 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.86): 20-29 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 63.7 wins, -1.12 PTD
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+1.50): 28-21 record, 97.2% (+0.8%) playoffs, 68.8% bye, 95.3 wins, +1.57 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.04): 27-22 record, 22.2% (+3.9%) playoffs, 1.6% bye, 83.4 wins, +0.01 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.43): 22-27 record, 1.0% (-9.0%) playoffs, 0% bye, 75.7 wins, -0.50 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.05): 21-28 record, 0.1% (-0.9%) playoffs, 0% bye, 70.4 wins, -0.95 PTD
NL West:
Los Angeles Dodgers (+0.49): 32-17 record, 83.3% (+19.8%) playoffs, 37.6% bye, 92.2 wins, +1.09 PTD
San Diego Padres (+1.26): 24-25 record, 66.3% (-22.4%) playoffs, 19.0% bye, 89.6 wins, +0.76 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+0.83): 24-25 record, 42.1% (-36.2%) playoffs, 5.1% bye, 86.5 wins, +0.43 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.54): 19-30 record, 0.2% (-0.4%) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.9 wins, -0.59 PTD
NL South:
Miami Marlins (+0.59): 30-19 record, 76.5% (+12.7%) playoffs, 24.5% bye, 90.9 wins, +0.52 PTD
Washington Nationals (+0.85): 28-21 record, 74.0% (+20.0%) playoffs, 27.4% bye, 90.7 wins, +0.58 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.29): 27-22 record, 35.0% (+14.0%) playoffs, 6.8% bye, 85.8 wins, +0.82 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.37): 21-28 record, 1.2% (-7.3%) playoffs, 0% bye, 75.2 wins, -1.11 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers
Division Winners: Miami Marlins, New York Mets
Wild Card Teams: Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres
Bubble Teams: San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, Montreal Expos, Carolina Warhounds, Cincinnati Reds
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 88.6 games.
Commentary:
The Mets are seizing control of the division. They have a three-game lead and are actually playing really well; a +0.91 WAR rating so far is really good. Are they the NL's version of the Orioles? Maybe, though the Mets were considered to have the notably better roster. The major difference is that the NL East doesn't have a Yankees to beat, so simply finishing in the mid-high 80s will probably do it. The Phillies may only be three games back, but they're playing quite poorly, with a well-below average WAR so far. They're not out of it, but the Mets are the clear favorite. The Expos are actually playing almost average ball according to WAR, but they find themselves two games behind the Phillies anyways.
The Brewers by WAR have been dominant: by far the best team in the NL and only behind the Rangers in the PBL. By record, however, they've underperformed; three other teams in the NL have better records. The forecast isn't too worried; while the Brewers bye odds have dropped maybe ten percent, they have a good record and are playing really well, and should be reasonably safe (as much as any non-Rangers team is). The Cubs are playing average ball and have a good record. They're still on the outside of the wild card looking in, but they're in striking distance if they get hot.
The Dodgers continue on their first-month tear. They have the best record in the NL and the second best WAR. They have an eight-game lead on the division which, even in May, is a big deal. The only real problem is that the Dodgers, quite simply, aren't considered to have an extremely strong roster, so they aren't expected to keep this up. Even adjusted for their WAR to-date, they are still considered the 6th best pure team in the NL, but with their record they're still expected to finish with the 2nd best record in the NL. The Padres are a great roster and are playing well with a 0.76 WAR rating so far. Alas, it hasn't led to winning games. Double-alas, the Dodgers are playing out of their minds. The Padres are still expected to get to 90 wins, this isn't exactly going optimally. And speaking of teams in tough spots, the Giants are pretty much everything I just said about the Padres, minus a bit (they don't seem quite as good and are playing slightly worse). According to my sheet, the Giants and Padres are the 4th and 2nd best teams in the NL (respectively). But with both of them three games out of the wild card in a crazy competitive league, one of them probably won't make the playoffs.
The Marlins and the Nationals are in a full-on dogfight. The Nationals are considered to have the better roster and have the better WAR so far, but it's close and the Marlins have a two-game lead. Either way, both are expected to finish a little above 90 wins and both have good shots at the playoffs. The Braves have been playing their butts off, putting up the 4th best WAR in the NL and winning 27 of 49 games so far. In another division that would be pretty competitive, but they're considered worse than the Marlins or Nats, leaving them as a very capable playoff contender. The Warhounds are really struggling. That they have one of the worst batter WARs in the league isn't really a surprise, given that that's always been their weakness (Ben Hassi notwithstanding). But their pitching is struggling too (Walt Perez notwithstanding) and they're in a division with three other good teams. This just isn't their year.
I know I say this every year, but the NL Wild Card Race is going to be really stupid, and at least one good team isn't going to make it.
Oh, and for those of you interested, the average NL team is 1.3 WAR better than the average AL team so far. That's not my sheet, that's just season-to-date performance. It's not because the best teams are in the NL; three of the top four WAR teams are in the AL. But the NL has five of the top ten, while the AL has seven of the bottom ten and all of the bottom four.
Current as of 5/4/55:
AL East:
New York Yankees (+1.04): 13-9 record, 94.7% (-4.5%) playoffs, 18.1% bye, 92.6 wins, +0.46 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-0.43): 15-9 record, 13.8% (+13.0%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 80.1 wins, +0.87 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-0.88): 11-13 record, 0.3% (+0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.7 wins, -0.06 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-1.22): 4-20 record, 0% (-0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 61.4 wins, -1.47 PTD
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (+1.03): 12-12 record, 80.4% (-10.5%) playoffs, 10.7% bye, 91.5 wins, +0.51 PTD
Minnesota Twins (+0.93): 13-11 record, 79.6% (-8.8%) playoffs, 13.0% bye, 91.4 wins, +0.39 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.35): 12-12 record, 36.5% (+23.7%) playoffs, 2.0% bye, 84.7 wins, +0.22 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-1.61): 11-13 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 64.5 wins, -1.79 PTD
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+1.10): 18-6 record, 99.0% (+4.1%) playoffs, 60.1% bye, 98.1 wins, +1.43 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (+0.31): 10-14 record, 23.8% (-20.3%) playoffs, 0.8% bye, 82.3 wins, -0.29 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-1.30): 9-15 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 65.6 wins, -1.11 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.66): 6-18 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 59.0 wins, -2.45 PTD
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.91): 18-6 record, 99.9% (+0.5%) playoffs, 97.4% bye, 106.0 wins, +2.25 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.75): 12-12 record, 60.1% (-1.2%) playoffs, 1.1% bye, 88.7 wins, +0.34 PTD
Kansas City Royals (+0.21): 8-16 record, 10.4% (+2.9%) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 79.4 wins, -0.50 PTD
Houston Astros (-0.98): 12-12 record, 0.9% (+0.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.7 wins, -1.15 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies
Division Winners: New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox
Wild Cards: Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays
Bubble Teams: Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals
Average Wins for 2nd AL Wild Card: 88.2 wins
Commentary:
The Baltimore Orioles are playing out of their mind, posting the 3rd best WAR in the AL so far, and leading the spluttering Yankees by two games! They're doing so well that they're forecast to win 80 games, and have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, even higher than the Royals! Which reminds me of an old saying, "Being good is handy, but winning is more important". The Orioles are definitely winning. And the Blue Jays top a 2-10 week where they played really well with a 2-10 week where they played like donkeys. Clumsy donkeys.
Cleveland vaults up 23.7% in playoff odds, the largest swing in the AL. It wasn't for any huge reason, they only pulled their record to average and their WAR to above average, nothing to brag about. But neither the White Sox nor Twins are dominating, the Rays aren't impressing and the Royals and Angels are struggling. Sometimes you don't have to be great, just better than everyone else. The White Sox and the Twins both had bad weeks and remain in a heat, and while the Twins are a game up the White Sox are still favored by a hair.
The Rockies would be the obvious team to beat in the AL if it weren't for the Rangers; those two look like pretty likely bye teams right now. Their bye odds almost doubled, thanks to the Yankees, White Sox and Twins all struggling over the last 12 games. The Angels aren't doing well, with a 10-14 record and below average WAR. They're not out of it by a long shot, but they would be well advised to get it together soon.
The aforementioned Rangers are looking pretty murderous, and already have a bye almost locked up. The Rays are playing decently and are 12-12, but that still puts them as the cautious favorite for the second wild card spot. The Royals are still playing quite poorly and more to the point are 8-16. Perversely, they have a better shot at the playoffs now than two weeks ago. It will take a herculean effort for them to pull out of this one. They're good enough to make it possible, but not good enough to make it probable.
NL East:
New York Mets (-0.16): 13-11 record, 43.5% (-3.4%) playoff, 1.2% bye, 80.8 wins, +0.44 PTD
Philadelphia Phiilies (-0.16): 13-11 record, 43.5% (-1.6%) playoff, 1.2% bye, 80.8 wins, +0.15 PTD
Montreal Expos (-0.72): 12-12 record, 9.1% (2.4%) playoff, 0.5% bye, 74.3 wins, -0.21 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.06): 10-14 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 59.1 wins, -1.36 PTD
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+1.41): 14-10 record, 96.4% (+0%) playoffs, 79.6% bye, 97.2 wins, +1.46 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.07): 14-10 record, 18.3% (+3.6%) playoffs, 1.8% bye, 82.7 wins, -0.05 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.29): 13-11 record, 10.0% (+5.8%) playoffs, 0.7% bye, 79.5 wins, -0.06 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-0.99): 13-11 record, 1.0% (+0.6%) playoffs, 0% bye, 72.6 wins, -0.74 PTD
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.33): 12-12 record, 88.7% (-2.8%) playoffs, 41.1% bye, 94.3 wins, +0.57 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+1.01): 12-12 record, 78.3% (-5.3%) playoffs, 23.3% bye, 91.2 wins, +0.80 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (+0.31): 17-7 record, 63.5% (+63.5%) playoffs, 13.3% bye, 89.4 wins, +1.09 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.35): 9-15 record, 0.6% (-1.8%) playoffs, 0% bye, 74.9 wins, +0.07 PTD
NL South:
Miami Marlins (+0.59): 14-10 record, 63.8 (-3.1%) playoffs, 18.9% bye, 89.1 wins, +0.46 PTD
Washington Nationals (+0.85): 10-14 record, 54.0% (-17.3%) playoffs, 12.8% bye, 87.6 wins, +0.31 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.02): 13-11 record, 21.0% (-3.3%) playoffs, 2.5% bye, 82.5 wins, +0.33 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (-0.10): 11-13 record, 8.5% (-3.1%) playoffs, 0.4% bye, 79.3 wins, -0.87 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
Division Winners: Miami Marlins, New York Mets / Philadelphia Phillies
Wild Card Teams: San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers
Bubble Teams: Washington Nationals, New York Mets / Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Carolina Warhounds, Cincinnati Reds, Montreal Expos, St. Louis Cardinals
The 2nd WildCard team on average wins 88.9 games.
Commentary:
The NL East remains tight, with the Phillies pulling even with the Mets in both record and adjusted WAR. The Expos remain a game out, and while not playing particularly well, definitely have a chance of playing the spoiler.
The Brewers have a good record (14-10) and the best WAR and adjusted WAR in the NL by a good margin. But their playoff odds haven't gone up, mostly on account of the rest of their division. The Cubs are playing average ball with a 14-10 record, which gives them decent maneuvering room. The Reds are doing the same at one game worse, the Cards still have a good record (13-11) but very low WAR. Put it together and there's a respectable chance that *someone* of those bottom three teams will win a goodly number of games. If you're curious, the average number of games won by the 2nd finishing NL Central team is 85, and 16% of the time that team won 90+ games. So even if you're doing as well as the Brewers (so far), having a division of teams that are all above 500 isn't an ideal situation.
The story of the NL West has to be about the Dodgers, the league's most surprising team so far. They're 17-7 and posting the second best WAR in the National League. And they've jumped 29.3% in their playoff odds from two weeks ago. They're forecast to finish just under 90 wins, which is certainly enough to contend for a playoff spot. So how are the Padres and the Giants still rated well above the Dodgers? Despite being five games down, both teams are playing well (WAR Ratings above +0.50) and both were considered top teams in the NL going into the season. We've only seen 24 games so far; the Padres and the Giants are still really, really good. In fact, the Padres and Giants only dropped 2-5% in playoff odds, despite their average record. The Dodgers gained almost 30%; where did it come from?
The NL South is having a weird year. Miami is playing well enough (14-10, solid WAR) but those two only combine to put them about where the Dodgers are by the end of the year. The Nationals are very good (with decent WAR so far), but are 10-14 which puts them a few games lower than the Marlins in the final reckoning. The Braves are 13-11 and playing above average ball, but those things put them behind a lot of other teams. And the Warhounds are both 11-13 and playing quite badly so far, which puts them in a very uncomfortable place. The real problem for the NL South is that they have to beat one of the Padres, Giants and Dodgers for a Wild Card spot, and that's looking like an increasingly difficult task.
Current as of 4/19/55
AL East:
New York Yankees (+1.11): 7-5 record, 99.1% (+0.4%) playoffs, 20.6% bye, 94.1 wins, +0.57 PTD
Baltimore Orioles (-0.85): 6-6 record, 0.8% (-0.6%) playoffs, 0% bye, 72.6 wins, -0.85 PTD
Boston Red Sox (-1.09): 6-6 record, 0.2% (+0.2%) playoffs, 0% bye, 69.9 wins, -0.84 PTD
Toronto Blue Jays (-0.92): 2-10 record, 0.1% (-0.6%) playoffs, 0% bye, 67.6 wins, +0.29 PTD
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox (+1.13): 8-4 record, 90.9% (+9.7%) playoffs, 28.0% bye, 95.3 wins, +0.86 PTD
Minnesota Twins (+1.15): 7-5 record, 88.4% (+11.8%) playoffs, 24.7% bye, 94.5 wins, +1.60 PTD
Cleveland Indians (+0.14): 5-7 record, 12.8% (-14.5%) playoffs, 0.6% bye, 81.8 wins, -1.15 PTD
Detroit Tigers (-1.49): 7-5 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 66.6 wins, -1.16 PTD
AL West:
Colorado Rockies (+1.01): 10-2 record, 94.9% (+16.0%) playoffs, 33.3% bye, 96.0 wins, +1.15 PTD
Los Angeles Angels (+0.55): 6-6 record, 44.1% (-0.3%) playoffs, 3.2% bye, 87.1 wins, +0.91 PTD
Oakland Athletics (-1.10): 5-7 record, 0% (-0.1%) playoffs, 0% bye, 68.7 wins, +0.28 PTD
Seattle Mariners (-1.58): 2-10 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 60.6 wins, -2.48 PTD
AL South:
Texas Rangers (+1.78): 10-2 record, 99.4% (+2.2%) playoffs, 88.7% bye, 104.1 wins, +1.74 PTD
Tampa Bay Rays (+0.75): 6-6 record, 61.3% (+1.5%) playoffs, 1.8% bye, 89.2 wins, +0.11 PTD
Kansas City Royals (+0.14): 3-9 record, 7.5% (-25.5%) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 79.9 wins, -1.34 PTD
Houston Astros (-0.91): 6-6 record, 0.2% (-0.3%) playoffs, 0% bye, 71.7 wins, -0.80 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Bye: Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies
Division Winners: Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees
Wild Cards: Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays
Bubble Teams: Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians, Kansas City Royals
Commentary:
Let's talk about how unlucky the Jays have been. They are dead average in wOBA, but far below average in runs scored. Their FIP is far better than average (0.44 runs per game) and their xFIP is better (0.48 runs per game better than average). And their BABIP is actually lower than average (by 6 points). Yet they've actually allowed an average number of runs. So they hit average and pitched above average, yet they scored below average runs and allowed average runs. They have the performance of a 7-5 team, but the pythag of a 5-7 team. And of course, they've gone 2-10 instead of 5-7. Their wins are by 7 and 2 runs, and their losses are by 1 three times, by 2 four times and by 3 three times. They're getting screwed by the RNG coming and going.
Aside from that the AL East looks exactly like the AL East has looked each of the last five years. The White Sox and Twins have both looked very strong so far, while the Indians have struggled. The Rockies are playing extremely well and the Angels, despite a mediocre record, are playing well enough to retain a realistic shot at the playoffs. The Rangers are wrecking everything and look like the obvious team to beat in the AL. The Rays, like the Angels, are only playing about average, but their strong roster, combined with the Indians and Royals' struggling, mean they still have a pretty reasonable route to the playoffs. And the Royals, true to form, are really struggling right now (just like last year). Except their roster this year is worse, so they're really going to have to step it up to have a shot.
NL East:
New York Mets (-0.16): 7-5 record, 46.9% (+9.1%) playoff, 2.3% bye, 80.6 wins, +0.83 PTD
Philadelphia Phiilies (-0.13): 6-6 record, 45.1% (-1.5%) playoff, 1.4% bye, 80.0 wins, +0.59 PTD
Montreal Expos (-0.80): 5-7 record, 6.7% (-4.1%) playoff, 0% bye, 71.9 wins, -0.43 PTD
Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.18): 5-7 record, 0% playoffs, 0% bye, 57.3 wins, -1.70 PTD
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers (+1.26): 6-6 record, 96.4% (+0.3%) playoffs, 61.6% bye, 94.7 wins, +0.60 PTD
Chicago Cubs (-0.05): 6-6 record, 14.7% (-2.6%) playoffs, 1.6% bye, 80.8 wins, +0.07 PTD
Cincinnati Reds (-0.36): 5-7 record, 4.2% (-2.8%) playoffs, 0.2% bye, 76.5 wins, -0.37 PTD
St. Louis Cardinals (-1.07): 8-4 record, 0.4% (-1.0%) playoffs, 0.1% bye, 72.0 wins, -1.13 PTD
NL West:
San Diego Padres (+1.33): 6-6 record, 91.5% (-4.7%) playoffs, 53.6% bye, 95.4 wins, +0.18 PTD
San Francisco Giants (+1.06): 6-6 record, 83.6% (+1.6%) playoffs, 26.5% bye, 92.5 wins, +1.07 PTD
Los Angeles Dodgers (+0.16): 8-4 record, 34.2% (+13.1%) playoffs, 2.5% bye, 85.1 wins, +0.69 PTD
Arizona Diamondbacks (-0.46): 5-7 record, 2.4% (-3.7%) playoffs, 0% bye, 75.5 wins, -0.37 PTD
NL South:
Washington Nationals (+0.88): 5-7 record, 71.3% (-7.9%) playoffs, 23.6% bye, 89.7 wins, +0.24 PTD
Miami Marlins (+0.65): 7-5 record, 66.9% (+10.2%) playoffs, 20.1% bye, 89.2 wins, +0.82 PTD
Atlanta Braves (+0.04): 7-5 record, 24.3% (+8.2%) playoffs, 2.2% bye, 82.8 wins, +0.68 PTD
Carolina Warhounds (+0.00): 4-8 record, 11.6% (-15.1%) playoffs, 1.3% bye, 79.3 wins, -0.70 PTD
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres
Division Winners: Washington Nationals, New York Mets
Wild Card Teams: San Francisco Giants, Miami Marlins
Bubble Teams: Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Carolina Warhounds, Montreal Expos, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks
Commentary:
Only two teams in the NL have a below 1% chance at the playoffs right now. Let that sink in.
The Mets have slightly outpaced the Phillies out of the gate, leading in both record and WAR. It's a slight edge, but it counts. The Brewers haven't impressed, but are throwing up respectable WAR so far. The Cubs aren't doing badly, but they'll need to do more than perform at a 500 level if they want to make the playoffs. The Cardinals may be 8-4, but their WAR Rating is awful so far (-1.13) and the forecast gives them no love. The Padres are playing about average but are still given a 90%+ chance at the playoffs. They're still considered better than the Brewers, but have a lower bye chance because it's much more likely the Padres will lose their division (to the Giants most likely) than that the Brewers will lose theirs. The Giants are only 6-6 but are playing well so far. The Dodgers have won (8-4) and are playing well, but that has only moved them up into the upper echelons of the bubble teams so far (where they are the most likely alternate Wild Card - Philly is more likely to get in by winning the division). They just have an uphill road right now because they need to beat one of the Nats, Marlins, Padres and Giants and none of those looks easy at this moment. The Nats are struggling (again) and Miami is playing well (again) and at this moment the sheet gives them very similar odds, still believing (perhaps erroneously) that the Nats have the strong roster. The Braves are playing well so far, where the Warhounds picked the wrong year/division to have a weak first two weeks.
Philosophical Question: When a team is expected to be 500 or worse, and is given reasonably low playoff odds (8% or whatnot) why do their odds drop when they perform exactly in line with their forecast?
The answer is pretty straightforward: a 500 team (by which I mean that should win 50% of their games, not a team that actually does) can absolutely make the playoffs if they get lucky with their game results (ie, they win more than expected). That 8% isn't their chances of making the playoffs if they go 500; if they go 500 their chances are zero. The 8% is the chance they get lucky enough to outperform their estimated quality. So, perversely, pulling a Dennis Green and proving that they were who we thought they were drops their odds. Most teams need a little luck to make the playoffs; 500 teams need more than most.