Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jun 24, 2020 6:12:52 GMT -5
Standard Disclaimers:
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
4) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
5) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
6) This is adjusted for half of the amount the GM has under/over performed the sheet to date.
7) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
8) This is counting the entire franchise roster, so minor league players may be counted if my sheet thinks that they're an upgrade.
9) The ratings are standard deviations from the mean, so +0 is league average.
10) And to be clear, when I say a team is better/worse than last year, I'm explicitly comparing them to where they and their players were in spring training of the prior year.
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies: 78.3 wins
New York Mets: 77.4 wins
Montreal Expos: 71.9 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates: 57.4 wins
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers: 95.4 wins
Chicago Cubs: 80.2 wins
Cincinnati Reds: 77.2 wins
St. Louis Cardinals: 69.9 wins
NL West:
San Diego Padres: 97.0 wins
San Francisco Giants: 92.0 wins
Los Angeles Dodgers: 81.7 wins
Arizona Diamondbacks: 76.0 wins
NL South:
Washington Nationals: 91.4 wins
Miami Marlins: 87.4 wins
Carolina Warhounds: 82.6 wins
Atlanta Braves: 80.2 wins
Playoff Picture:
Byes: San Diego Padres, Milwaukee Brewers
Division Winners: Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
Wild Cards: San Francisco Giants, Miami Marlins
Bubble Teams: Carolina Warhounds, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves
Commentary:
My sheet hates the NL East, so at least it's consistent. And Philly's probably going to smoke that forecast, so that'll be consistent too (Philly has overperformed its forecast by an average of 7 wins a year).
My sheet thinks my Brewers are awesome and there's probably bias there. But if you look at the roster . . . it's a pretty good group. I was surprised by Cincinnati's forecast, but less so by the Cubs.
The NL West was about what I expected. But the NL South was a surprise, in that the Nationals were forecast to be the best in the division by a good bit. Then I looked at their roster and remembered why they're always forecast to be so good. They're just as capable of egregiously underperforming as they were last year, but they still probably have the strongest roster in the division. I'll get playoff odds up sometime today.
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
4) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
5) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
6) This is adjusted for half of the amount the GM has under/over performed the sheet to date.
7) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
8) This is counting the entire franchise roster, so minor league players may be counted if my sheet thinks that they're an upgrade.
9) The ratings are standard deviations from the mean, so +0 is league average.
10) And to be clear, when I say a team is better/worse than last year, I'm explicitly comparing them to where they and their players were in spring training of the prior year.
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies: 78.3 wins
New York Mets: 77.4 wins
Montreal Expos: 71.9 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates: 57.4 wins
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers: 95.4 wins
Chicago Cubs: 80.2 wins
Cincinnati Reds: 77.2 wins
St. Louis Cardinals: 69.9 wins
NL West:
San Diego Padres: 97.0 wins
San Francisco Giants: 92.0 wins
Los Angeles Dodgers: 81.7 wins
Arizona Diamondbacks: 76.0 wins
NL South:
Washington Nationals: 91.4 wins
Miami Marlins: 87.4 wins
Carolina Warhounds: 82.6 wins
Atlanta Braves: 80.2 wins
Playoff Picture:
Byes: San Diego Padres, Milwaukee Brewers
Division Winners: Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
Wild Cards: San Francisco Giants, Miami Marlins
Bubble Teams: Carolina Warhounds, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves
Commentary:
My sheet hates the NL East, so at least it's consistent. And Philly's probably going to smoke that forecast, so that'll be consistent too (Philly has overperformed its forecast by an average of 7 wins a year).
My sheet thinks my Brewers are awesome and there's probably bias there. But if you look at the roster . . . it's a pretty good group. I was surprised by Cincinnati's forecast, but less so by the Cubs.
The NL West was about what I expected. But the NL South was a surprise, in that the Nationals were forecast to be the best in the division by a good bit. Then I looked at their roster and remembered why they're always forecast to be so good. They're just as capable of egregiously underperforming as they were last year, but they still probably have the strongest roster in the division. I'll get playoff odds up sometime today.