The 2042 PBL Redraftables
Jun 22, 2020 19:05:18 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, Texas Rangers, and 5 more like this
Post by MetDaMeats on Jun 22, 2020 19:05:18 GMT -5
Hello everybody! Ben from the Rockies here. One of the websites that has been gently cradling my slowly degrading cerebellum for the past few months is Bill Simmons’s The Ringer. I’ve been enjoying his hot takes on sports/pop-culture since the early 2000s when he was just starting with ESPN. Coincidentally, that’s about the time I met my pal John, GM of Milwaukee.
Bill Simmons has been dealing with the lack of new sports topics by going back through historic basketball drafts and rehashing how they should have gone in a series he calls “The Redraftables.” And I figured if he can do it, why can’t we? So welcome to Ben (CantstoptheROCK) and John (Sansterre) doing our very own Redraftables for the first 15 picks of the 2042 PBL draft.
I floated this draft for a couple of reasons. It’s far enough away that we can make some solid determinations about who were the most valuable assets on a pick by pick basis. However, it’s also close enough that a good number of these players are still knocking around the PBL. So there’s a little estimation to be done about who’s careers will be best by the time retirement rolls around. Additionally, I think John and I had some specific relationships with a few of the draft picks below that were interesting enough to discuss. And we did!
So, without further ado, enjoy the 2042 PBL Redraftables. Out of the infinite goodness of my heart, I granted John the first pick. We alternate thereafter. [Ben’s note: This all took place as a semi-formal conversation over Slack. I’ve added some edits for clarity, parentheticals about when the players were originally taken, and bolded bracketed comments like this one wherever I deemed necessary or mildly amusing. PROFESSIONALISM.]
Sansterre:
I haven't had time to make a list, but I think Steve Guindon (Round 1, 11th overall) at #1 is the obvious choice. And it's not really close.
CantstoptheROCK:
Completely agree. I remember desperately trying to trade up from the 22nd pick to the 11th to grab him, but the White Sox weren't having any of it. What's funny is that at the time I think he looked like the second best SS in the draft next to Jose Contreras,
Sansterre:
Yeah. Guindon wasn't the obvious #1 at the time; he was a 7/5/4 [Contact/Power/Eye] with a good glove and high avoid Ks. But that 5 power turned into an 8 power and suddenly he was really damned good.
CantstoptheROCK:
If you had to guess, how much WAR do you think he has left in him? My estimate was, maybe, another 40 WAR before he retires. Is that crazy at his age?
Sansterre:
Yes. Yes it is. I'd take the under on 40 WAR.
CantstoptheROCK:
Here's my argument: He's shown no sign of slowing down. If he puts up a couple more 8 WAR seasons, then he can start declining and still hit the mark.
Sansterre:
There is almost no chance he'll put up another 8 WAR year. Of course, I'd have said that last year too, so what do I know?
CantstoptheROCK:
Okay. For pick 2 it's time to right an old wrong. Let me give some background here.
Sansterre:
Would you please?
CantstoptheROCK:
Because this season [2042] was one of my greatest trading successes and worst drafting failures, so I think it's worth documenting. I started the draft with the 12th pick overall. I swapped with the Tigers to get up to the 7th pick, and then pulled of another swap to somehow get the Number 2 pick in the draft. The first pick overall went to Miami who chose (and then didn't sign) Henry Alexander. So, I had to choose between a powerhouse third baseman and catcher with almost identical potential.
I asked you for advice helping me choose. And, that's how the sheet convinced me to take Bartolo Santos (who flamed out after a few replacement level seasons) over Brady Henderson (Round 1, 3rd overall).
Sansterre:
DEFEND THE SHEET! DEFEND THE SHEET!
CantstoptheROCK:
Long story short, it was all your fault.
Sansterre:
Saw that coming.
CantstoptheROCK:
Clearly, I bear no responsibility for my own actions. But no, with the second overall pick I would, with the benefit of a lot of hindsight, like to take Brady. Any other thoughts on Brady Henderson?
Sansterre:
Really boom or bust. Some bad seasons, some mammoth seasons. But there's no question that for his whole career he's been one of the best third basemen in the league.
CantstoptheROCK:
Yeah. He's never really been as dominant as I assumed he'd be. That's some cold comfort there. But, still not enough to get me to change my pick now. So, who do you take third?
Sansterre:
There are a lot of really good options. Within four WAR of each other are: Luis Torres, Noel King, Gerald Callahan and Jim Chesney.
CantstoptheROCK:
Just gotta say, consider how much each of those guys has left in the tank.
Sansterre:
So really the call is about future viability. And with that in mind, with the #3 imaginary pick, I take Gerald Callahan (Round 1, 8th overall).
CantstoptheROCK:
Right. That's where I'd go too.
Sansterre:
He's the youngest of the group (only 30) and he's still performing at a high level. The same cannot be said of the rest of that group. And given that he's making $40M a year, you can say that the market agrees with me.
CantstoptheROCK:
What's your guess for his future?
Sansterre:
I mean, he's all 7s and an 8 outfield range. If his fragility doesn't destroy him he should be able to throw up another 30 WAR over his career pretty easily; 4 WAR or better for most of the next five years is very possible. Jinxjinxjinx.
CantstoptheROCK:
Okay. Here's where everything gets thrown up in the air a little. I think for 4 I'm going with Jim Chesney (Round 5, 173rd overall).
Sansterre:
Fascinating!
CantstoptheROCK:
33, but still healthy. The bat's still there. Defense still great. I think he has more potential to put up viable seasons than either of the pitchers Luis Torres or Noel King. I think both pitchers will be scraping together 1 or 2 WAR seasons for a little while longer, but not much.
Sansterre:
Bold choice Mr. Flintstone! [Ben’s note: This is a quote from the 1994 live-action feature film adaptation of The Flintstones, staring John Goodman and Rick Moranis. I believe Halle Berry says this line. It is a terrible film, and John has been quoting it for the entire two decades that I have known him. It is truly inexplicable.]
CantstoptheROCK:
Talk me out of it.
Sansterre:
I shan't. Neither Torres nor King are really maintaining their value right now.
CantstoptheROCK:
I want to reiterate, before we move on, Chesney was taken in the 5th round with the 173rd overall pick.
Sansterre:
I saw it coming a mile away. I just chose not to draft him because I'm a great humanitarian.
CantstoptheROCK:
Your giving nature knows no bounds. He's not the lowest player from my redrafted top 15, but he's second lowest. Okay. Who is next for you? I'm going to give you a hint: My next pick is probably not who you'd expect.
Sansterre:
Duane Hansen? He's not even in this draft!
CantstoptheROCK:
EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED!
Sansterre:
I'm going to take the first pitcher of the draft, John Miller (Round 2, 64th overall)!
CantstoptheROCK:
Damn it. My pick would have been exactly who you expected.
Sansterre:
So it appears. [Ben’s note: John inserts a slightly-smiling-face emoji here] He's only 31, he's still 8/7/8 [Stuff/Movement/Control] and hasn't started breaking down. I think it's very reasonable to expect that he'll provide solid value for some time. That he's only averaged 2.2 WAR over the last three years isn't a great sign, but I think that was mostly a series of flukes.
CantstoptheROCK:
Okay. I totally agree. But for the sake of argument, what if I were to say that Miller had a couple decent 5 WAR years but he's never been more than an innings eater otherwise. Why should I take him over pitchers like Torres or King who have achieved more since the draft? They've both got a 5 to 6 WAR lead on him value-wise.
Sansterre:
I'd rather bet on Miller's potential. If he even averages 3 WAR for five-six more years he'll pass both of them (probably) and that's not a crazy proposition.
CantstoptheROCK:
Okay. Well, you stole my surprise pick. At pick number 6, King and Torres are pretty close together. In my mind they've both got the same problem. Their movement is drying up and pretty soon they'll be tossing batting practice if they're not careful.
Okay. I think I go with Noel King (Round 1, 28th overall) here. I think Torres is actually pitching better right now, but I'm too worried he'll get hurt. Fascinating, but true, Noel King is ALMOST a really valuable bat. Almost.
Sansterre:
My sheet has actually used King in a few teams’ lineups for forecast purposes
CantstoptheROCK:
I'm not entirely sure how a guy can have an infield range of 1 and an outfield range of 6. Maybe he has bunions and can only run on grass? But in any case, he's not really viable at any position and he's not good enough to DH for most teams. So close, though. Okay. You taking Luis Torres with 7, or do you have tricks up your sleeve?
Sansterre:
Ugh. I think that at the intersection of his WAR lead and the fact that he's still a viable 3ish WAR pitcher, I can't really say no to Luis Torres (Round 3, 82nd overall).
CantstoptheROCK:
Also, you're the guy who auctioned him off a long time ago [Ben’s note: The 2049 season. I guess that’s not a very long time ago] so you have that pre-existing relationship. You want to explain that a little for anyone who wasn't in the league for that episode?
Sansterre:
Ugh. Basically the Tigers had gone through a bunch of GMs who made no moves, and were sitting on a lot of totally viable players that really ought have been moved to clear way for the tanking that was happening anyways.
So I was asked to oversee the auctioning off of several of their players, including Torres. [Detroit] walked away from the trades with 3 extra firsts and a bunch of prospects. So, in theory, it was really good.
The downside was that it was an early version of my trade value system and I hadn't figured in how to correct for [the value of] low-end prospects. So, I ended up taking a lot of volume for Torres but not a lot of talent. Upside, it gave me a lot of ideas to make the system better, and I think the Tigers got a fair amount out of it, but I wish I'd have done better for them.
CantstoptheROCK:
How do you feel about how Torres turned out since being traded? One strong 5.3 WAR season, but has been pretty pedestrian otherwise. Solid, but unexceptional.
Sansterre:
It was a weird trade market. Most GMs shied away from the bidding, because they were gunshy about his injury history (and as I recall, he was actually 8 months into a UCL-tear recovery). Give Sean [GM of the Reds] the credit, he went all-in on a guy who could make a difference.
The problem is, when you're a Cincinnati, you don't usually have the prospects to compete for game-changers. Torres was a chance for him to package off a ton of midrange prospects plus some draft picks (and he was probably going to sign a comp free agent anyways) so he got Torres for not an enormous cost. And Torres ended up being a reasonably affordable 3-4 WAR starter, and for a Cincinnati that's not a bad deal. Certainly not the desired outcome, but not a bust either.
CantstoptheROCK:
I'd say that's a fair analysis. For the 8th pick in the draft, I'm going to go wild and pick another starter. He's the guy who went first overall in the actual draft, Henry Alexander (1st round, 1st overall). Taken by Miami (not run by the Commish at the time), and then not signed. [Ben’s note: He was taken by the Warhounds with the 10th overall in the 2043 draft, so pretty close to where I’ve redrafted him.]
Sansterre:
He's 33 and is 2 WAR behind George Westbrooks. You feel that confident about him?
CantstoptheROCK:
Well, injuries are always scary. That's true. But I believe that he has much more upside than a lot of guys left on the list. Westbrooks included.
Sansterre:
I'll grant you that much. I'm just cautious about fragile pitchers who are 33.
CantstoptheROCK:
For instance, he's the only pitcher left in this draft who could theoretically put up a 4 WAR season. He pretty much did it last year. So, yeah. I think I give him the SP bump here, despite the risks.
Sansterre:
I think that's fair.
CantstoptheROCK:
But I will admit that there is a bump involved.
Bill Simmons has been dealing with the lack of new sports topics by going back through historic basketball drafts and rehashing how they should have gone in a series he calls “The Redraftables.” And I figured if he can do it, why can’t we? So welcome to Ben (CantstoptheROCK) and John (Sansterre) doing our very own Redraftables for the first 15 picks of the 2042 PBL draft.
I floated this draft for a couple of reasons. It’s far enough away that we can make some solid determinations about who were the most valuable assets on a pick by pick basis. However, it’s also close enough that a good number of these players are still knocking around the PBL. So there’s a little estimation to be done about who’s careers will be best by the time retirement rolls around. Additionally, I think John and I had some specific relationships with a few of the draft picks below that were interesting enough to discuss. And we did!
So, without further ado, enjoy the 2042 PBL Redraftables. Out of the infinite goodness of my heart, I granted John the first pick. We alternate thereafter. [Ben’s note: This all took place as a semi-formal conversation over Slack. I’ve added some edits for clarity, parentheticals about when the players were originally taken, and bolded bracketed comments like this one wherever I deemed necessary or mildly amusing. PROFESSIONALISM.]
Sansterre:
I haven't had time to make a list, but I think Steve Guindon (Round 1, 11th overall) at #1 is the obvious choice. And it's not really close.
CantstoptheROCK:
Completely agree. I remember desperately trying to trade up from the 22nd pick to the 11th to grab him, but the White Sox weren't having any of it. What's funny is that at the time I think he looked like the second best SS in the draft next to Jose Contreras,
Sansterre:
Yeah. Guindon wasn't the obvious #1 at the time; he was a 7/5/4 [Contact/Power/Eye] with a good glove and high avoid Ks. But that 5 power turned into an 8 power and suddenly he was really damned good.
CantstoptheROCK:
If you had to guess, how much WAR do you think he has left in him? My estimate was, maybe, another 40 WAR before he retires. Is that crazy at his age?
Sansterre:
Yes. Yes it is. I'd take the under on 40 WAR.
CantstoptheROCK:
Here's my argument: He's shown no sign of slowing down. If he puts up a couple more 8 WAR seasons, then he can start declining and still hit the mark.
Sansterre:
There is almost no chance he'll put up another 8 WAR year. Of course, I'd have said that last year too, so what do I know?
CantstoptheROCK:
Okay. For pick 2 it's time to right an old wrong. Let me give some background here.
Sansterre:
Would you please?
CantstoptheROCK:
Because this season [2042] was one of my greatest trading successes and worst drafting failures, so I think it's worth documenting. I started the draft with the 12th pick overall. I swapped with the Tigers to get up to the 7th pick, and then pulled of another swap to somehow get the Number 2 pick in the draft. The first pick overall went to Miami who chose (and then didn't sign) Henry Alexander. So, I had to choose between a powerhouse third baseman and catcher with almost identical potential.
I asked you for advice helping me choose. And, that's how the sheet convinced me to take Bartolo Santos (who flamed out after a few replacement level seasons) over Brady Henderson (Round 1, 3rd overall).
Sansterre:
DEFEND THE SHEET! DEFEND THE SHEET!
CantstoptheROCK:
Long story short, it was all your fault.
Sansterre:
Saw that coming.
CantstoptheROCK:
Clearly, I bear no responsibility for my own actions. But no, with the second overall pick I would, with the benefit of a lot of hindsight, like to take Brady. Any other thoughts on Brady Henderson?
Sansterre:
Really boom or bust. Some bad seasons, some mammoth seasons. But there's no question that for his whole career he's been one of the best third basemen in the league.
CantstoptheROCK:
Yeah. He's never really been as dominant as I assumed he'd be. That's some cold comfort there. But, still not enough to get me to change my pick now. So, who do you take third?
Sansterre:
There are a lot of really good options. Within four WAR of each other are: Luis Torres, Noel King, Gerald Callahan and Jim Chesney.
CantstoptheROCK:
Just gotta say, consider how much each of those guys has left in the tank.
Sansterre:
So really the call is about future viability. And with that in mind, with the #3 imaginary pick, I take Gerald Callahan (Round 1, 8th overall).
CantstoptheROCK:
Right. That's where I'd go too.
Sansterre:
He's the youngest of the group (only 30) and he's still performing at a high level. The same cannot be said of the rest of that group. And given that he's making $40M a year, you can say that the market agrees with me.
CantstoptheROCK:
What's your guess for his future?
Sansterre:
I mean, he's all 7s and an 8 outfield range. If his fragility doesn't destroy him he should be able to throw up another 30 WAR over his career pretty easily; 4 WAR or better for most of the next five years is very possible. Jinxjinxjinx.
CantstoptheROCK:
Okay. Here's where everything gets thrown up in the air a little. I think for 4 I'm going with Jim Chesney (Round 5, 173rd overall).
Sansterre:
Fascinating!
CantstoptheROCK:
33, but still healthy. The bat's still there. Defense still great. I think he has more potential to put up viable seasons than either of the pitchers Luis Torres or Noel King. I think both pitchers will be scraping together 1 or 2 WAR seasons for a little while longer, but not much.
Sansterre:
Bold choice Mr. Flintstone! [Ben’s note: This is a quote from the 1994 live-action feature film adaptation of The Flintstones, staring John Goodman and Rick Moranis. I believe Halle Berry says this line. It is a terrible film, and John has been quoting it for the entire two decades that I have known him. It is truly inexplicable.]
CantstoptheROCK:
Talk me out of it.
Sansterre:
I shan't. Neither Torres nor King are really maintaining their value right now.
CantstoptheROCK:
I want to reiterate, before we move on, Chesney was taken in the 5th round with the 173rd overall pick.
Sansterre:
I saw it coming a mile away. I just chose not to draft him because I'm a great humanitarian.
CantstoptheROCK:
Your giving nature knows no bounds. He's not the lowest player from my redrafted top 15, but he's second lowest. Okay. Who is next for you? I'm going to give you a hint: My next pick is probably not who you'd expect.
Sansterre:
Duane Hansen? He's not even in this draft!
CantstoptheROCK:
EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED!
Sansterre:
I'm going to take the first pitcher of the draft, John Miller (Round 2, 64th overall)!
CantstoptheROCK:
Damn it. My pick would have been exactly who you expected.
Sansterre:
So it appears. [Ben’s note: John inserts a slightly-smiling-face emoji here] He's only 31, he's still 8/7/8 [Stuff/Movement/Control] and hasn't started breaking down. I think it's very reasonable to expect that he'll provide solid value for some time. That he's only averaged 2.2 WAR over the last three years isn't a great sign, but I think that was mostly a series of flukes.
CantstoptheROCK:
Okay. I totally agree. But for the sake of argument, what if I were to say that Miller had a couple decent 5 WAR years but he's never been more than an innings eater otherwise. Why should I take him over pitchers like Torres or King who have achieved more since the draft? They've both got a 5 to 6 WAR lead on him value-wise.
Sansterre:
I'd rather bet on Miller's potential. If he even averages 3 WAR for five-six more years he'll pass both of them (probably) and that's not a crazy proposition.
CantstoptheROCK:
Okay. Well, you stole my surprise pick. At pick number 6, King and Torres are pretty close together. In my mind they've both got the same problem. Their movement is drying up and pretty soon they'll be tossing batting practice if they're not careful.
Okay. I think I go with Noel King (Round 1, 28th overall) here. I think Torres is actually pitching better right now, but I'm too worried he'll get hurt. Fascinating, but true, Noel King is ALMOST a really valuable bat. Almost.
Sansterre:
My sheet has actually used King in a few teams’ lineups for forecast purposes
CantstoptheROCK:
I'm not entirely sure how a guy can have an infield range of 1 and an outfield range of 6. Maybe he has bunions and can only run on grass? But in any case, he's not really viable at any position and he's not good enough to DH for most teams. So close, though. Okay. You taking Luis Torres with 7, or do you have tricks up your sleeve?
Sansterre:
Ugh. I think that at the intersection of his WAR lead and the fact that he's still a viable 3ish WAR pitcher, I can't really say no to Luis Torres (Round 3, 82nd overall).
CantstoptheROCK:
Also, you're the guy who auctioned him off a long time ago [Ben’s note: The 2049 season. I guess that’s not a very long time ago] so you have that pre-existing relationship. You want to explain that a little for anyone who wasn't in the league for that episode?
Sansterre:
Ugh. Basically the Tigers had gone through a bunch of GMs who made no moves, and were sitting on a lot of totally viable players that really ought have been moved to clear way for the tanking that was happening anyways.
So I was asked to oversee the auctioning off of several of their players, including Torres. [Detroit] walked away from the trades with 3 extra firsts and a bunch of prospects. So, in theory, it was really good.
The downside was that it was an early version of my trade value system and I hadn't figured in how to correct for [the value of] low-end prospects. So, I ended up taking a lot of volume for Torres but not a lot of talent. Upside, it gave me a lot of ideas to make the system better, and I think the Tigers got a fair amount out of it, but I wish I'd have done better for them.
CantstoptheROCK:
How do you feel about how Torres turned out since being traded? One strong 5.3 WAR season, but has been pretty pedestrian otherwise. Solid, but unexceptional.
Sansterre:
It was a weird trade market. Most GMs shied away from the bidding, because they were gunshy about his injury history (and as I recall, he was actually 8 months into a UCL-tear recovery). Give Sean [GM of the Reds] the credit, he went all-in on a guy who could make a difference.
The problem is, when you're a Cincinnati, you don't usually have the prospects to compete for game-changers. Torres was a chance for him to package off a ton of midrange prospects plus some draft picks (and he was probably going to sign a comp free agent anyways) so he got Torres for not an enormous cost. And Torres ended up being a reasonably affordable 3-4 WAR starter, and for a Cincinnati that's not a bad deal. Certainly not the desired outcome, but not a bust either.
CantstoptheROCK:
I'd say that's a fair analysis. For the 8th pick in the draft, I'm going to go wild and pick another starter. He's the guy who went first overall in the actual draft, Henry Alexander (1st round, 1st overall). Taken by Miami (not run by the Commish at the time), and then not signed. [Ben’s note: He was taken by the Warhounds with the 10th overall in the 2043 draft, so pretty close to where I’ve redrafted him.]
Sansterre:
He's 33 and is 2 WAR behind George Westbrooks. You feel that confident about him?
CantstoptheROCK:
Well, injuries are always scary. That's true. But I believe that he has much more upside than a lot of guys left on the list. Westbrooks included.
Sansterre:
I'll grant you that much. I'm just cautious about fragile pitchers who are 33.
CantstoptheROCK:
For instance, he's the only pitcher left in this draft who could theoretically put up a 4 WAR season. He pretty much did it last year. So, yeah. I think I give him the SP bump here, despite the risks.
Sansterre:
I think that's fair.
CantstoptheROCK:
But I will admit that there is a bump involved.