Sansterre's 2055 AL Forecast
Jun 21, 2020 20:36:34 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, Texas Rangers, and 3 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jun 21, 2020 20:36:34 GMT -5
Standard Disclaimers:
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
4) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
5) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
6) This is adjusted for half of the amount the GM has under/over performed the sheet to date.
7) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
8) This is counting the entire franchise roster, so minor league players may be counted if my sheet thinks that they're an upgrade.
9) The ratings are standard deviations from the mean, so +0 is league average.
10) And to be clear, when I say a team is better/worse than last year, I'm explicitly comparing them to where they and their players were in spring training of the prior year.
AL East:
New York Yankees: 93.6 wins / 98.4% playoffs / 35.1% bye
Baltimore Orioles: 72.4 wins / 1.4% / 0.1%
Boston Red Sox: 69.2 wins / 0.4%
Toronto Blue Jays: 69.1 wins / 0.6%
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox: 93.3 wins / 79.9% playoffs / 27.8% bye
Minnesota Twins: 92.2 wins / 74.9% / 21.8%
Cleveland Indians: 84.9 wins / 30.6% / 3.9%
Detroit Tigers: 64.8 wins
AL West:
Colorado Rockies: 91.3 wins / 79.7% playoffs / 23.2% bye
Los Angeles Angels: 86.0 wins / 40.6% / 6.3%
Oakland Athletics: 66.9 wins
Seattle Mariners: 66.2 wins
AL South:
Texas Rangers: 99.6 wins / 97.3% playoffs / 69.6% bye
Tampa Bay Rays: 90.0 wins / 64.0% / 9.5%
Kansas City Royals: 85.3 wins / 30.9% / 1.8%
Houston Astros: 71.3 wins / 0.7%
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Texas Rangers, New York Yankees
Division Winners: Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies
Wild Card Teams: Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays
Bubble Teams: Los Angeles Angels, Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Indians
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
4) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
5) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
6) This is adjusted for half of the amount the GM has under/over performed the sheet to date.
7) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
8) This is counting the entire franchise roster, so minor league players may be counted if my sheet thinks that they're an upgrade.
9) The ratings are standard deviations from the mean, so +0 is league average.
10) And to be clear, when I say a team is better/worse than last year, I'm explicitly comparing them to where they and their players were in spring training of the prior year.
AL East:
New York Yankees: 93.6 wins / 98.4% playoffs / 35.1% bye
Baltimore Orioles: 72.4 wins / 1.4% / 0.1%
Boston Red Sox: 69.2 wins / 0.4%
Toronto Blue Jays: 69.1 wins / 0.6%
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox: 93.3 wins / 79.9% playoffs / 27.8% bye
Minnesota Twins: 92.2 wins / 74.9% / 21.8%
Cleveland Indians: 84.9 wins / 30.6% / 3.9%
Detroit Tigers: 64.8 wins
AL West:
Colorado Rockies: 91.3 wins / 79.7% playoffs / 23.2% bye
Los Angeles Angels: 86.0 wins / 40.6% / 6.3%
Oakland Athletics: 66.9 wins
Seattle Mariners: 66.2 wins
AL South:
Texas Rangers: 99.6 wins / 97.3% playoffs / 69.6% bye
Tampa Bay Rays: 90.0 wins / 64.0% / 9.5%
Kansas City Royals: 85.3 wins / 30.9% / 1.8%
Houston Astros: 71.3 wins / 0.7%
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Texas Rangers, New York Yankees
Division Winners: Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies
Wild Card Teams: Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays
Bubble Teams: Los Angeles Angels, Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Indians