PBL Playoff Update 2054
Apr 21, 2020 8:34:40 GMT -5
Texas Rangers, Tim_GiantsGM, and 3 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Apr 21, 2020 8:34:40 GMT -5
As of 9-14-54
AL Bye Picture:
Texas (100%) has this locked up and Chicago (94.5%) is expected to finish six games ahead of their nearest competition. Minnesota (2.7%) and Colorado (2.8%) both could get lucky.
AL Divisional Champs Picture:
The Yankees (100%) have finally put the Jays in the rearview mirror and are expected to win their division by 16 games. Colorado (100%) is expected to win by 21 and Texas (100%) is expected to win by 17. In the AL Central:
Chicago: 100%, leading, 102.9 expected wins
Minnesota: 99.9%, four games back, 96.9 expected wins
Cleveland: 96.6%, ten games back, 91.3 expected wins
Cleveland pretty much has no shot at the division, but it's possible for Minnesota.
AL Wild Card Picture:
Minnesota and Cleveland have a massive lead on Kansas City (3.3%). The Royals are six games back from the Indians and boast a lower WAR Rating. So it's possible with 21 games left, but it's really unlikely.
Expected AL Playoff Matchups:
Cleveland @ Colorado; winner plays Chicago
Minnesota @ New York; winner plays Texas
NL Bye Picture:
Miami (92.6%) has a solid lead, four games ahead of the #3 team in the NL. Philadelphia (72.2%) keeps trucking with the best record in the NL, despite the 7th best WAR. San Diego (19.1%) has a legitimate shot, but they have to win their division first.
NL Divisional Picture:
Philly (100%) is expected to win by 18. Miami (100%) is 7 games ahead of Carolina and is expected to to finish 8 or 9 games up. But the other two divisions look tight:
Milwaukee (64.1%), lead, 82.4 expected wins
Cincinnati (20.6%), two games back, 80.6 expected wins
St. Louis (8.2%), two games back, 79.3 expected wins
Chicago (5.3%), two games back, 78.7 expected wins
Well, if you like tight races, the NL Central is for you. All teams are within two games of each other. If you want to watch teams playing well . . . the NL West may be the better choice.
San Diego (97.7%), lead, 91.7 expected wins
Los Angeles (72.0%), one game back, 88.4 expected wins
San Francisco (72.0%), two games back, 88.4 expected wins
San Diego has re-established themselves on top of the division in both wins and WAR (took long enough!). While LA is one game up on San Francisco, the Giants have played far better (+0.93 WR vs +0.18) and are expected to even things up.
NL Wild Card Picture:
Two of LA, San Francisco and Carolina (54.0%) will get the wild card (Washington is a 2% long shot). Carolina is one game behind San Fran and has played worse (+0.69 vs +0.93) but has a far easier finishing schedule and is forecast to only finish a game behind. And when you're forecast to finish 1 game behind two teams and you only need to beat one . . . you've got a pretty good shot.
NL Expected Playoffs (wildly more theoretical than the AL):
San Francisco @ Milwaukee, winner plays Miami
Los Angeles @ San Diego, winner plays Philadelphia
As OF 8-17-54
AL Bye Picture:
The Rangers (99.9%) have this thing on lockdown; they're expected to have a 12-game lead on the #3 team in the AL. The White Sox (48.8%) now appear to have superseded the Rockies, with a one-game lead; despite a lower WAR that one game may be enough. Colorado (42.1%) is by WAR the second best team in the AL (+1.48 WR) but being a game back with only 47 to go hurts. Minnesota (8.8%) is actually forecast to win 95.2 games at this point; a bye for them wouldn't be craaaaaazy.
AL Divisional Picture:
The Yankees (99.7%) are now five games up on the Jays and are expected to win their division by 14 games. The Rockies (100%) are expected to win theirs by 27 games. The Rangers (100%) are expected to win theirs by 25 games. The AL Central is looking tight:
Chicago (99.8%), 70-45, +1.36 WR, 99 expected wins
Minnesota (98.1%), 70-45, +0.71 WR, 95 expected wins
Cleveland (89.5%), 65-50, +0.60 WR, 92 expected wins
AL Wild Card Picture:
Minnesota (98.1%) has kept with their winning ways, along with maintaining a strong team WAR. They have an eleven game lead on the most likely Wild Card replacement, which means that they'd need a colossal implosion to fall short. Cleveland (89.5%) has a six game lead on the Royals and will likely retain the lead. Kansas City (10.1%) has righted the ship somewhat; they're 59-56 with a +0.41 WR and are expected to win 85 games at this point. It's a moderately salvaged season, but they're going to have a difficult time running down teams six and eleven teams ahead of them. Tampa Bay (2.5%) has a winning record (finally) and a good WAR (+0.50) but they're eight games back on Cleveland, and two behind Kansas City. Totally possible. Highly improbable.
NL Bye Picture:
Miami (82.4%) has the best record in the NL and the highest WAR, so they're the mostly likely winners. San Francisco (57.8%) is only one game back and with a WAR Rating above +1, but the competition at the top of the NL is pretty fierce. Philadelphia (23.1%) has an amazing record, (68-47), tied for 2nd in the league but a below average WAR, so they're not being given as much credit as perhaps their record merits. San Diego (18.2%) is five games behind San Fran, but has a higher WAR so far (if not by much) and the stronger roster. Carolina (8.1%) is only three games back from Miami and with an excellent WAR (+0.82) but their relatively low odds of catching Miami really hurt their chances.
NL Divisional Picture:
Philly (100%) is expected to win by 19 games. Milwaukee (81.4%) has had a distressingly terrible month, and now is only 60-55 with an average WAR. They're three games up on the Cardinals and have the highest WAR rating in the division (by 0.42) but it's not a big lead. They're still expected to win by 6 games, but it's not a comfortable margin. San Francisco (96.8%) not being at 100% is a testament to how brutal the South and West are. There are six teams in the NL with above average WAR and they're *all* in those two divisions. San Francisco may be 68-47 with a +1.06 WR, but LA is four games behind them and the Padres four games behind that. They're having a great season, but they could still not win the division. Miami (99.4%) has the best record in the NL (by a game) and by far the best WR (+1.58) so they're considered to be reasonably bulletproof. But Carolina could really make their lives hard.
NL Wild Card Picture:
San Diego (85.4%) has the 2nd best WAR in the NL and is only a game behind the #2 Wild Card team, the Dodgers. It's not a terrible position to be in. Carolina (84.2%) has a three-game lead on San Diego, a two-game lead on LA and boasts a strong WR. The Dodgers (38.7%) have a game up on the Padres, but aren't playing terribly well, with a mere +0.16 WR so far. They need to either hold off the Padres or get Carolina to fall apart. Neither is overtly likely, but both very possible. Of these three teams, the expected finish is Carolina 92.3 wins, San Diego 92.0 wins, Los Angeles 88.6 wins. The teams of the NL Central have zero shot at the wild card, but could take the division if Milwaukee keeps sucking all over the place:
St. Louis (9.9%), 3 games back, -0.43 WR, 78.7 wins
Chicago (4.9%), 4 games back, -0.51 WR, 77.0 wins
Cincinnati (3.0%), 8 games back, -0.13 WR, 76.0 wins
AS OF 7-20-54
AL Bye Picture:
Texas (96.8%) continues their apparent lock on the spot, and the Rockies (88.4%) are a close runner-up. Only the White Sox (9.4%) have even a remote chance.
AL Division Winner Picture:
New York (88.3%) is still expected to win their division, but their odds are beginning to decrease a little. They may be three games behind Toronto, but they have more than a +1.5 advantage in WAR rating and they are still expected to win the division by 8 games. But it's not as crazy for them to lose as it used to be. Chicago (98.6%) is only expected to win the division by six games, which is a small enough margin for error that things could go seriously sideways. They still will almost certainly make the playoffs, but the division is not a certain thing. Colorado (100%) is expected to win their division by 26 games, Texas (100%) by 23.
AL Wild Card Picture:
Minnesota (84.7%) has cooled on WAR Rating, but still has an astounding 8-game lead on the runner-up Wild Card team. Cleveland (78.1%) has a lower WAR Rating than Minnesota and is four games behind; at this point despite their stronger roster they are no longer expected to finish with a better record. However, they have a four game lead and a higher WAR Rating than Kansas City, so they're still sitting pretty. Kansas City (28.9%) has finally broken even at 45-45 but their WAR Rating is still only average. At this point they're pretty much getting the benefit of the doubt regarding their roster being strong enough to save the day.
AL Fringe Teams:
Tampa Bay, 42-48, +0.33 WAR Rating, 9.4%
Toronto, 46-42, -0.59 WAR Rating, 8.8%
Los Angeles, 42-48, -0.42 WAR Rating, 1.9%
NL Bye Picture:
Miami (82.1%) is looking more and more like the team to beat here, only a game behind San Francisco and with a very impressive WAR Rating (+1.72). San Francisco (48.2%) at this point is actually favored to finish ahead of San Diego. They have a five-game lead and even have a better WAR Rating so far this season. San Diego (37.3%) is still the best roster in the PBL, but San Francisco is having a great season and it's unclear whether the Padres can actually catch them. Philadelphia (10.8%) isn't playing terribly well (+0.08) but their record (53-37) is good enough that they could end up with a bye just by default.
NL Divisional Winner Picture:
Philly (98.5%) has a twelve game lead on their division, a +0.63 War Rating advantage and is expected to win by 15 games. Milwaukee (93.0%) has been playing like hot garbage lately, but is still expected to win their division by 10 games. The NL West is looking like a pretty tight race:
San Francisco, 56-34, +1.21 WAR Rating, 94.5% Playoffs, 96.8 expected wins
San Diego, 51-39, +1.19 WAR Rating, 93.5% Playoffs, 96.2 expected wins
It's anyone's game. Miami (97.0%) has a three game lead on Carolina and a +0.82 WAR rating advantage and is only expected to win their division by 6 games. It's not a lock by a long shot.
NL Wild Card Picture:
I've already implicitly dealt with San Fran and San Diego, so I'll talk about Carolina (69.0%), boasting a 52-38 record with a strong +0.90 WAR Rating. They're expected to finish with 92 wins, but the NL race is so tight that their position as the second Wild Card isn't sure. Los Angeles (44.0%) is having a strong season, with a 50-40 record and a +0.67 WAR Rating and an expected wins of 89.6. In other seasons this would be pretty solid, but this year it's short of where San Diego/San Fran/Carolina expect to be.
NL Fringe Teams:
Washington, 42-48, +0.02 WAR Rating, 3.3%
Cincinnati, 40-50, -0.38 WAR Rating, 2.8%
St. Louis, 42-48, -0.62 WAR Rating, 1.5%
Chicago, 42-48, -0.84 WAR Rating, 1.0%
AS OF 7-3-54
AL Bye Picture:
Texas (96.6%) has this sucker locked up, or near to it. They have an eight game lead on the #3 team in the AL so . . . yeah. Colorado (74.6%) has taken a commanding lead over the second spot. At this point they lead the White Sox by four games and have a +0.58 WAR Rating advantage, and are expected to finish six games ahead of Chicago. The White Sox (16.0%) are the only other team with a shot.
AL Divisional Picture:
New York (97.3%) is still the prohibitive favorite in the East (favored by 14 games). Toronto (6.9%) may have 42 wins, but they're also running a WAR rating of -0.46, two full points worse than the Yankees. The White Sox (99%) are an almost certain lock for the playoffs, but not necessarily for the division; they only have a five-game edge in the forecast right now. The three teams all with a shot are Chicago (45 wins, +1.30 WR), Cleveland (44 wins, +0.38 WR) and Minnesota (45 wins, +0.30 WR). It's still the White Sox' to lose. Colorado (100%) is now expected to win their division by 28 games so . . . yeah. Texas (100%) is only favored by 23 games.
AL Wild Card Picture:
Cleveland (91%) has come on like gangbusters lately. Their WR is only +0.38, but they have a lot of advantages. First, they have a very strong roster. And second, the AL Wild Card race is a freaking demolition derby. Cleveland has 44 wins, but their competitors have 45 wins (Minnesota), 42 wins (Toronto) and 38 wins (Kansas City). A good record, good roster and decent WAR make Cleveland an easy favorite for a Wild Card spot. Minnesota (65.7%) continues to play well. But their WR has slowed down, now only at +0.30, and that combined with a mediocre preseason forecast has them going 43-41 the rest of the way. They have such a lead by record that they're still a likely candidate, but there's reason to think they'll regress some. Kansas City (33.7%) has been playing great (their WR is all the way up to almost average). But the wins haven't been showing up; they're still 38-40. They have a great roster, so they shouldn't counted out. But they'll either need Minnesota to fold or to get really hot. Both are possible.
AL Fringe Teams (teams between 1 and 10%):
Toronto, 42-36, -0.46 WAR Rating, 6.9%
Tampa Bay, 34-44, -0.08 WAR Rating, 4.4%
Los Angeles Angels, 34-44, -0.48 WAR Rating, 1.1%
NL Bye Picture:
Miami (71.2%) . . . wait, did I just lead off the NL section by listing Miami as the most likely bye team? Heck yes I did. They don't have the best record in the NL (San Fran is 2 games up on them), but they have a good roster and are playing out of their minds (+1.53 WR for those of you at home, the best mark in the NL). Put that all together and they are the cautious favorite for the bye. San Diego (59.1%) . . . am I still beating this dead horse? Yes I am. They are five games back from San Francisco, but playing much better (+1.42 WR vs +0.82) and with a stronger overall roster. At this point they're only expected to beat the Giants by 3 games, and are expected to have the worst record they've had in a long time, but they're still the best team in the division by a good margin. San Francisco (26.0%) would have a better chance, save that in order to get a bye they must defeat the Padres, which shouldn't be easy. Milwaukee (24.4%) is the little engine that could, minding its own business in case multiple other teams implode.
NL Divisional Picture:
Philadelphia (96.7%) has come down to Earth, now only posting an average WAR Rating, but still expected to win their division by 14 games. Milwaukee (97.1%) isn't dominating, but is expected to win their division by 15 games. San Diego (98.7%) is almost guaranteed a playoff spot. They may not win the division (5 games back with only half a season to close the gap is not easy), but they're the best team in the NL by every measure but record, and even there only three other teams have more wins. Miami (94.6%) is expected to win their division by 7 games. It's not on lockdown by a long shot, but they're in a great position.
NL Wild Card Picture:
San Francisco (92.5%) is almost a lock for the playoffs. They have the best record in the NL, a decent roster and a very good WAR rating (+0.82). They're expected to win 95 games, which is a pretty solid achievement. Carolina (53.9%) is holding their own in a very tight race. They're 44-34 with a good WR (+0.53); almost identical to the Brewers, except that the Brewers are in a (this year) weak division. The Dodgers (52.0%) are just behind the Warhounds. They had a better preseason forecast, their WAR Rating is almost identical (+0.54), but they're one game back (43-35) and that difference is what puts them behind. But most of the NL race seems settled; two of these three teams are very likely to make the playoffs.
NL Fringe Teams (teams between 1 and 10%):
Washington Nationals, 36-42, -0.10 WAR Rating, 9.8%
Montreal Expos, 35-43, -0.76 WAR Rating, 2.0%
Chicago Cubs, 39-39, -0.44 WAR Rating, 1.1%
Arizona Diamondbacks, 38-40, +0.21 WAR Rating, 1.0%
New York Mets, 35-43, -0.97 WAR Rating, 1.0%
AL Bye Picture:
Texas (100%) has this locked up and Chicago (94.5%) is expected to finish six games ahead of their nearest competition. Minnesota (2.7%) and Colorado (2.8%) both could get lucky.
AL Divisional Champs Picture:
The Yankees (100%) have finally put the Jays in the rearview mirror and are expected to win their division by 16 games. Colorado (100%) is expected to win by 21 and Texas (100%) is expected to win by 17. In the AL Central:
Chicago: 100%, leading, 102.9 expected wins
Minnesota: 99.9%, four games back, 96.9 expected wins
Cleveland: 96.6%, ten games back, 91.3 expected wins
Cleveland pretty much has no shot at the division, but it's possible for Minnesota.
AL Wild Card Picture:
Minnesota and Cleveland have a massive lead on Kansas City (3.3%). The Royals are six games back from the Indians and boast a lower WAR Rating. So it's possible with 21 games left, but it's really unlikely.
Expected AL Playoff Matchups:
Cleveland @ Colorado; winner plays Chicago
Minnesota @ New York; winner plays Texas
NL Bye Picture:
Miami (92.6%) has a solid lead, four games ahead of the #3 team in the NL. Philadelphia (72.2%) keeps trucking with the best record in the NL, despite the 7th best WAR. San Diego (19.1%) has a legitimate shot, but they have to win their division first.
NL Divisional Picture:
Philly (100%) is expected to win by 18. Miami (100%) is 7 games ahead of Carolina and is expected to to finish 8 or 9 games up. But the other two divisions look tight:
Milwaukee (64.1%), lead, 82.4 expected wins
Cincinnati (20.6%), two games back, 80.6 expected wins
St. Louis (8.2%), two games back, 79.3 expected wins
Chicago (5.3%), two games back, 78.7 expected wins
Well, if you like tight races, the NL Central is for you. All teams are within two games of each other. If you want to watch teams playing well . . . the NL West may be the better choice.
San Diego (97.7%), lead, 91.7 expected wins
Los Angeles (72.0%), one game back, 88.4 expected wins
San Francisco (72.0%), two games back, 88.4 expected wins
San Diego has re-established themselves on top of the division in both wins and WAR (took long enough!). While LA is one game up on San Francisco, the Giants have played far better (+0.93 WR vs +0.18) and are expected to even things up.
NL Wild Card Picture:
Two of LA, San Francisco and Carolina (54.0%) will get the wild card (Washington is a 2% long shot). Carolina is one game behind San Fran and has played worse (+0.69 vs +0.93) but has a far easier finishing schedule and is forecast to only finish a game behind. And when you're forecast to finish 1 game behind two teams and you only need to beat one . . . you've got a pretty good shot.
NL Expected Playoffs (wildly more theoretical than the AL):
San Francisco @ Milwaukee, winner plays Miami
Los Angeles @ San Diego, winner plays Philadelphia
As OF 8-17-54
AL Bye Picture:
The Rangers (99.9%) have this thing on lockdown; they're expected to have a 12-game lead on the #3 team in the AL. The White Sox (48.8%) now appear to have superseded the Rockies, with a one-game lead; despite a lower WAR that one game may be enough. Colorado (42.1%) is by WAR the second best team in the AL (+1.48 WR) but being a game back with only 47 to go hurts. Minnesota (8.8%) is actually forecast to win 95.2 games at this point; a bye for them wouldn't be craaaaaazy.
AL Divisional Picture:
The Yankees (99.7%) are now five games up on the Jays and are expected to win their division by 14 games. The Rockies (100%) are expected to win theirs by 27 games. The Rangers (100%) are expected to win theirs by 25 games. The AL Central is looking tight:
Chicago (99.8%), 70-45, +1.36 WR, 99 expected wins
Minnesota (98.1%), 70-45, +0.71 WR, 95 expected wins
Cleveland (89.5%), 65-50, +0.60 WR, 92 expected wins
AL Wild Card Picture:
Minnesota (98.1%) has kept with their winning ways, along with maintaining a strong team WAR. They have an eleven game lead on the most likely Wild Card replacement, which means that they'd need a colossal implosion to fall short. Cleveland (89.5%) has a six game lead on the Royals and will likely retain the lead. Kansas City (10.1%) has righted the ship somewhat; they're 59-56 with a +0.41 WR and are expected to win 85 games at this point. It's a moderately salvaged season, but they're going to have a difficult time running down teams six and eleven teams ahead of them. Tampa Bay (2.5%) has a winning record (finally) and a good WAR (+0.50) but they're eight games back on Cleveland, and two behind Kansas City. Totally possible. Highly improbable.
NL Bye Picture:
Miami (82.4%) has the best record in the NL and the highest WAR, so they're the mostly likely winners. San Francisco (57.8%) is only one game back and with a WAR Rating above +1, but the competition at the top of the NL is pretty fierce. Philadelphia (23.1%) has an amazing record, (68-47), tied for 2nd in the league but a below average WAR, so they're not being given as much credit as perhaps their record merits. San Diego (18.2%) is five games behind San Fran, but has a higher WAR so far (if not by much) and the stronger roster. Carolina (8.1%) is only three games back from Miami and with an excellent WAR (+0.82) but their relatively low odds of catching Miami really hurt their chances.
NL Divisional Picture:
Philly (100%) is expected to win by 19 games. Milwaukee (81.4%) has had a distressingly terrible month, and now is only 60-55 with an average WAR. They're three games up on the Cardinals and have the highest WAR rating in the division (by 0.42) but it's not a big lead. They're still expected to win by 6 games, but it's not a comfortable margin. San Francisco (96.8%) not being at 100% is a testament to how brutal the South and West are. There are six teams in the NL with above average WAR and they're *all* in those two divisions. San Francisco may be 68-47 with a +1.06 WR, but LA is four games behind them and the Padres four games behind that. They're having a great season, but they could still not win the division. Miami (99.4%) has the best record in the NL (by a game) and by far the best WR (+1.58) so they're considered to be reasonably bulletproof. But Carolina could really make their lives hard.
NL Wild Card Picture:
San Diego (85.4%) has the 2nd best WAR in the NL and is only a game behind the #2 Wild Card team, the Dodgers. It's not a terrible position to be in. Carolina (84.2%) has a three-game lead on San Diego, a two-game lead on LA and boasts a strong WR. The Dodgers (38.7%) have a game up on the Padres, but aren't playing terribly well, with a mere +0.16 WR so far. They need to either hold off the Padres or get Carolina to fall apart. Neither is overtly likely, but both very possible. Of these three teams, the expected finish is Carolina 92.3 wins, San Diego 92.0 wins, Los Angeles 88.6 wins. The teams of the NL Central have zero shot at the wild card, but could take the division if Milwaukee keeps sucking all over the place:
St. Louis (9.9%), 3 games back, -0.43 WR, 78.7 wins
Chicago (4.9%), 4 games back, -0.51 WR, 77.0 wins
Cincinnati (3.0%), 8 games back, -0.13 WR, 76.0 wins
AS OF 7-20-54
AL Bye Picture:
Texas (96.8%) continues their apparent lock on the spot, and the Rockies (88.4%) are a close runner-up. Only the White Sox (9.4%) have even a remote chance.
AL Division Winner Picture:
New York (88.3%) is still expected to win their division, but their odds are beginning to decrease a little. They may be three games behind Toronto, but they have more than a +1.5 advantage in WAR rating and they are still expected to win the division by 8 games. But it's not as crazy for them to lose as it used to be. Chicago (98.6%) is only expected to win the division by six games, which is a small enough margin for error that things could go seriously sideways. They still will almost certainly make the playoffs, but the division is not a certain thing. Colorado (100%) is expected to win their division by 26 games, Texas (100%) by 23.
AL Wild Card Picture:
Minnesota (84.7%) has cooled on WAR Rating, but still has an astounding 8-game lead on the runner-up Wild Card team. Cleveland (78.1%) has a lower WAR Rating than Minnesota and is four games behind; at this point despite their stronger roster they are no longer expected to finish with a better record. However, they have a four game lead and a higher WAR Rating than Kansas City, so they're still sitting pretty. Kansas City (28.9%) has finally broken even at 45-45 but their WAR Rating is still only average. At this point they're pretty much getting the benefit of the doubt regarding their roster being strong enough to save the day.
AL Fringe Teams:
Tampa Bay, 42-48, +0.33 WAR Rating, 9.4%
Toronto, 46-42, -0.59 WAR Rating, 8.8%
Los Angeles, 42-48, -0.42 WAR Rating, 1.9%
NL Bye Picture:
Miami (82.1%) is looking more and more like the team to beat here, only a game behind San Francisco and with a very impressive WAR Rating (+1.72). San Francisco (48.2%) at this point is actually favored to finish ahead of San Diego. They have a five-game lead and even have a better WAR Rating so far this season. San Diego (37.3%) is still the best roster in the PBL, but San Francisco is having a great season and it's unclear whether the Padres can actually catch them. Philadelphia (10.8%) isn't playing terribly well (+0.08) but their record (53-37) is good enough that they could end up with a bye just by default.
NL Divisional Winner Picture:
Philly (98.5%) has a twelve game lead on their division, a +0.63 War Rating advantage and is expected to win by 15 games. Milwaukee (93.0%) has been playing like hot garbage lately, but is still expected to win their division by 10 games. The NL West is looking like a pretty tight race:
San Francisco, 56-34, +1.21 WAR Rating, 94.5% Playoffs, 96.8 expected wins
San Diego, 51-39, +1.19 WAR Rating, 93.5% Playoffs, 96.2 expected wins
It's anyone's game. Miami (97.0%) has a three game lead on Carolina and a +0.82 WAR rating advantage and is only expected to win their division by 6 games. It's not a lock by a long shot.
NL Wild Card Picture:
I've already implicitly dealt with San Fran and San Diego, so I'll talk about Carolina (69.0%), boasting a 52-38 record with a strong +0.90 WAR Rating. They're expected to finish with 92 wins, but the NL race is so tight that their position as the second Wild Card isn't sure. Los Angeles (44.0%) is having a strong season, with a 50-40 record and a +0.67 WAR Rating and an expected wins of 89.6. In other seasons this would be pretty solid, but this year it's short of where San Diego/San Fran/Carolina expect to be.
NL Fringe Teams:
Washington, 42-48, +0.02 WAR Rating, 3.3%
Cincinnati, 40-50, -0.38 WAR Rating, 2.8%
St. Louis, 42-48, -0.62 WAR Rating, 1.5%
Chicago, 42-48, -0.84 WAR Rating, 1.0%
AS OF 7-3-54
AL Bye Picture:
Texas (96.6%) has this sucker locked up, or near to it. They have an eight game lead on the #3 team in the AL so . . . yeah. Colorado (74.6%) has taken a commanding lead over the second spot. At this point they lead the White Sox by four games and have a +0.58 WAR Rating advantage, and are expected to finish six games ahead of Chicago. The White Sox (16.0%) are the only other team with a shot.
AL Divisional Picture:
New York (97.3%) is still the prohibitive favorite in the East (favored by 14 games). Toronto (6.9%) may have 42 wins, but they're also running a WAR rating of -0.46, two full points worse than the Yankees. The White Sox (99%) are an almost certain lock for the playoffs, but not necessarily for the division; they only have a five-game edge in the forecast right now. The three teams all with a shot are Chicago (45 wins, +1.30 WR), Cleveland (44 wins, +0.38 WR) and Minnesota (45 wins, +0.30 WR). It's still the White Sox' to lose. Colorado (100%) is now expected to win their division by 28 games so . . . yeah. Texas (100%) is only favored by 23 games.
AL Wild Card Picture:
Cleveland (91%) has come on like gangbusters lately. Their WR is only +0.38, but they have a lot of advantages. First, they have a very strong roster. And second, the AL Wild Card race is a freaking demolition derby. Cleveland has 44 wins, but their competitors have 45 wins (Minnesota), 42 wins (Toronto) and 38 wins (Kansas City). A good record, good roster and decent WAR make Cleveland an easy favorite for a Wild Card spot. Minnesota (65.7%) continues to play well. But their WR has slowed down, now only at +0.30, and that combined with a mediocre preseason forecast has them going 43-41 the rest of the way. They have such a lead by record that they're still a likely candidate, but there's reason to think they'll regress some. Kansas City (33.7%) has been playing great (their WR is all the way up to almost average). But the wins haven't been showing up; they're still 38-40. They have a great roster, so they shouldn't counted out. But they'll either need Minnesota to fold or to get really hot. Both are possible.
AL Fringe Teams (teams between 1 and 10%):
Toronto, 42-36, -0.46 WAR Rating, 6.9%
Tampa Bay, 34-44, -0.08 WAR Rating, 4.4%
Los Angeles Angels, 34-44, -0.48 WAR Rating, 1.1%
NL Bye Picture:
Miami (71.2%) . . . wait, did I just lead off the NL section by listing Miami as the most likely bye team? Heck yes I did. They don't have the best record in the NL (San Fran is 2 games up on them), but they have a good roster and are playing out of their minds (+1.53 WR for those of you at home, the best mark in the NL). Put that all together and they are the cautious favorite for the bye. San Diego (59.1%) . . . am I still beating this dead horse? Yes I am. They are five games back from San Francisco, but playing much better (+1.42 WR vs +0.82) and with a stronger overall roster. At this point they're only expected to beat the Giants by 3 games, and are expected to have the worst record they've had in a long time, but they're still the best team in the division by a good margin. San Francisco (26.0%) would have a better chance, save that in order to get a bye they must defeat the Padres, which shouldn't be easy. Milwaukee (24.4%) is the little engine that could, minding its own business in case multiple other teams implode.
NL Divisional Picture:
Philadelphia (96.7%) has come down to Earth, now only posting an average WAR Rating, but still expected to win their division by 14 games. Milwaukee (97.1%) isn't dominating, but is expected to win their division by 15 games. San Diego (98.7%) is almost guaranteed a playoff spot. They may not win the division (5 games back with only half a season to close the gap is not easy), but they're the best team in the NL by every measure but record, and even there only three other teams have more wins. Miami (94.6%) is expected to win their division by 7 games. It's not on lockdown by a long shot, but they're in a great position.
NL Wild Card Picture:
San Francisco (92.5%) is almost a lock for the playoffs. They have the best record in the NL, a decent roster and a very good WAR rating (+0.82). They're expected to win 95 games, which is a pretty solid achievement. Carolina (53.9%) is holding their own in a very tight race. They're 44-34 with a good WR (+0.53); almost identical to the Brewers, except that the Brewers are in a (this year) weak division. The Dodgers (52.0%) are just behind the Warhounds. They had a better preseason forecast, their WAR Rating is almost identical (+0.54), but they're one game back (43-35) and that difference is what puts them behind. But most of the NL race seems settled; two of these three teams are very likely to make the playoffs.
NL Fringe Teams (teams between 1 and 10%):
Washington Nationals, 36-42, -0.10 WAR Rating, 9.8%
Montreal Expos, 35-43, -0.76 WAR Rating, 2.0%
Chicago Cubs, 39-39, -0.44 WAR Rating, 1.1%
Arizona Diamondbacks, 38-40, +0.21 WAR Rating, 1.0%
New York Mets, 35-43, -0.97 WAR Rating, 1.0%