PBL Playoff Update 06/22/54
Apr 17, 2020 9:52:45 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, Texas Rangers, and 1 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Apr 17, 2020 9:52:45 GMT -5
AL Bye Situation:
Texas (95.8%) has thoughtfully cleared up the bye race in the AL by beating the bejeezus out of everyone else. The Rangers now have the best record in the AL by four wins, have the best WAR Rating in the AL (by +0.44) and are forecast to finish nearly 9 wins ahead of the next closest team. So I'd say they're looking good. Colorado (49.1%) is still doing well (40-28 with a +1.52 WR), slightly better than Chicago (39-29 with a +1.28 WR), who are only at 33.8%.
AL Division Situation:
New York (99%) is still favored to win their division by 16 games, despite actually being tied with Toronto in record (35-33). New York has an outstanding WAR Rating (+1.55), where Toronto is playing slightly below-average ball (-0.36). Combine the differences between WAR ratings (which you'd expect to add to about 27 wins over a season) with the quality of their rosters and Toronto is really not expected to stay in this. Chicago (98.3%) is still in the driver's seat in their division, even if they're two games behind in the standings right now. They're expected to finish about 8 games ahead, which is solid, but not as good as the 12 games forecast three sims ago. Colorado (100%) is forecast to win by 24 games. Texas (100%) is forecast to win by 22 games.
AL Wild Card Situation:
Cleveland (75%) has improved their record to 36-32 and their WAR has improved to +0.21, Alfredo Sanchez comes back in two weeks, and they are the quiet favorite for the Wild Card with 88 wins. Minnesota (70.8%) continues to storm through the league, improving to 41-27, even if their WR slowed down at +0.50. The sheet is basically splitting the difference between their quality WAR so far and their sub-par preseason forecast and figuring that they'll go 500 the rest of the way. 500 puts them at 87.6 wins, which is good enough to seriously contend for a playoff spot. Kansas City (39.5%) haven't really turned their record around (33-35) but their performance has been great, good enough to improve to a WR of -0.12. They've got the squad healthy again so I expect them to improve considerably, but they're 3 games behind Cleveland and 8 games behind Minnesota. Totally doable, but uphill. Tampa Bay (12.9%) continues to struggle with record (31-37) even with above average WR (+0.08).
NL Bye Situation:
San Diego (67%) has fallen terribly, down to only a 2/3 chance of winning a bye. And in the meantime, Miami (53.7%) has surged over the last three sims, boasting the second best predicted record in the league at 94 wins. Milwaukee (25.7%) continues to chug along, even as Philadelphia (15.5%) continues to threaten.
NL Division Situation:
Philadelphia (97.8%) pretty much has this locked up, expected to win the division by 16 games. Milwaukee (95.9%) is expected to finish 15 games ahead of the Cubs, despite only being 3 games ahead now. The NL West is a nightmare. The worst team in the division is Arizona, who is 35-33 with a +0.35 WR. At the moment San Francisco is five games ahead of San Diego, but the Padres (98.5%) are still expected to win the division by 5 games (quite a bit less than last time). It's worth remembering that the Padres boast a WR of +1.42, which compares with the very solid +0.71 of the Giants. They're still the best team in the division, whatever the record says. Miami (92.2%) is clowning fools, with a strong record (40-28) and outstanding WAR (+1.58). They are expected to win their division by 8 games an improvement from 3 sims ago of . . . 8 games.
NL Wild Card Situation:
The San Francisco Giants (88.4%) are on a tear, with a tied for NL-leading record (43-25) and strong performance (+0.71). They are forecast to finish with 93.4 wins, which makes a playoff spot very likely. The Los Angeles Dodgers (57.8%) are playing well (38-30 with a +0.47 WR) but they are not in a dominant position, and with a lot of competitive teams in the NL, it's anyone's guess how this will go. The Carolina Warhounds (38.2%) are continuing their solid play (37-31 and +0.47) and are only forecast two games behind the Dodgers, so they're within striking distance. The Washington Nationals (20.9%) are going all in on this "Hare from the Tortoise and the Hare" angle. They're now 31-37 with a sub-par -0.06 WAR. They're still forecast to finish with 84 wins, but with three teams above them, and being 12 games behind the Giants, there's likely only one spot that they have a shot at and they'll have to work hard to get it.
Texas (95.8%) has thoughtfully cleared up the bye race in the AL by beating the bejeezus out of everyone else. The Rangers now have the best record in the AL by four wins, have the best WAR Rating in the AL (by +0.44) and are forecast to finish nearly 9 wins ahead of the next closest team. So I'd say they're looking good. Colorado (49.1%) is still doing well (40-28 with a +1.52 WR), slightly better than Chicago (39-29 with a +1.28 WR), who are only at 33.8%.
AL Division Situation:
New York (99%) is still favored to win their division by 16 games, despite actually being tied with Toronto in record (35-33). New York has an outstanding WAR Rating (+1.55), where Toronto is playing slightly below-average ball (-0.36). Combine the differences between WAR ratings (which you'd expect to add to about 27 wins over a season) with the quality of their rosters and Toronto is really not expected to stay in this. Chicago (98.3%) is still in the driver's seat in their division, even if they're two games behind in the standings right now. They're expected to finish about 8 games ahead, which is solid, but not as good as the 12 games forecast three sims ago. Colorado (100%) is forecast to win by 24 games. Texas (100%) is forecast to win by 22 games.
AL Wild Card Situation:
Cleveland (75%) has improved their record to 36-32 and their WAR has improved to +0.21, Alfredo Sanchez comes back in two weeks, and they are the quiet favorite for the Wild Card with 88 wins. Minnesota (70.8%) continues to storm through the league, improving to 41-27, even if their WR slowed down at +0.50. The sheet is basically splitting the difference between their quality WAR so far and their sub-par preseason forecast and figuring that they'll go 500 the rest of the way. 500 puts them at 87.6 wins, which is good enough to seriously contend for a playoff spot. Kansas City (39.5%) haven't really turned their record around (33-35) but their performance has been great, good enough to improve to a WR of -0.12. They've got the squad healthy again so I expect them to improve considerably, but they're 3 games behind Cleveland and 8 games behind Minnesota. Totally doable, but uphill. Tampa Bay (12.9%) continues to struggle with record (31-37) even with above average WR (+0.08).
NL Bye Situation:
San Diego (67%) has fallen terribly, down to only a 2/3 chance of winning a bye. And in the meantime, Miami (53.7%) has surged over the last three sims, boasting the second best predicted record in the league at 94 wins. Milwaukee (25.7%) continues to chug along, even as Philadelphia (15.5%) continues to threaten.
NL Division Situation:
Philadelphia (97.8%) pretty much has this locked up, expected to win the division by 16 games. Milwaukee (95.9%) is expected to finish 15 games ahead of the Cubs, despite only being 3 games ahead now. The NL West is a nightmare. The worst team in the division is Arizona, who is 35-33 with a +0.35 WR. At the moment San Francisco is five games ahead of San Diego, but the Padres (98.5%) are still expected to win the division by 5 games (quite a bit less than last time). It's worth remembering that the Padres boast a WR of +1.42, which compares with the very solid +0.71 of the Giants. They're still the best team in the division, whatever the record says. Miami (92.2%) is clowning fools, with a strong record (40-28) and outstanding WAR (+1.58). They are expected to win their division by 8 games an improvement from 3 sims ago of . . . 8 games.
NL Wild Card Situation:
The San Francisco Giants (88.4%) are on a tear, with a tied for NL-leading record (43-25) and strong performance (+0.71). They are forecast to finish with 93.4 wins, which makes a playoff spot very likely. The Los Angeles Dodgers (57.8%) are playing well (38-30 with a +0.47 WR) but they are not in a dominant position, and with a lot of competitive teams in the NL, it's anyone's guess how this will go. The Carolina Warhounds (38.2%) are continuing their solid play (37-31 and +0.47) and are only forecast two games behind the Dodgers, so they're within striking distance. The Washington Nationals (20.9%) are going all in on this "Hare from the Tortoise and the Hare" angle. They're now 31-37 with a sub-par -0.06 WAR. They're still forecast to finish with 84 wins, but with three teams above them, and being 12 games behind the Giants, there's likely only one spot that they have a shot at and they'll have to work hard to get it.