2054 PBL Playoff Situation - 6/1/54
Apr 12, 2020 9:44:43 GMT -5
Texas Rangers, craigWhiteSox, and 2 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Apr 12, 2020 9:44:43 GMT -5
To be clear, percentages quoted in the Bye section are to win a bye; all other percentages are chances to make the playoffs.
AL Bye Situation:
Texas (65.6%) remains the frontrunner, with an excellent record (30-19) and the best WAR in the league. Chicago (58.4%) has a slightly worse WAR than Colorado, but an extra win. And Colorado (49.4%) is doing excellently too, just not quite as well as the other two.
AL Division Winners Situation:
The AL division-winners look to be already locked in. The Yankees (99.9%) are still expected to win their division by 20+ games. The despite the tight race going on in the AL Central, the White Sox (99.4%) are currently forecast to win their division by 12 games. The Rockies (99.9%) are forecast to win theirs by 20+. And Texas (99.5%) is expected to win theirs by 16.
AL Wild Card Situation:
Don't look now, but the Minnesota Twins (69.1%) are continuing their hot streak. They're now 31-18 (tied for best record in the AL) with a +0.94 WAR Rating. They're clearly overperforming, but with their record they could go 500 the rest of the way and still win 87 games. They are now the Wild Card frontrunner for the American League. Cleveland (63.4%) is performing like an average team (24-25 with -0.02 WR) but they still have a strong roster. They are expected to turn things around, at least to the point of finishing in the mid-80s (Sanchez coming back in a month will help). The Royals (45.5%) are continuing to post an average record (24-25) and suck all over the place (-0.76 WR). It's possible that losing two of the best players in the league (Bill Kachmar and Enrique Vasquez) to injury may have adversely affected their performance. However, Kachmar's ready to roll and Vasquez will be back within the month, so Kansas City still has a legit shot. But they need the rest of their roster to, you know, actually play well. Tampa Bay (21.2%) is continuing the trend: slightly positive WAR (+0.13) and disappointing record (21-28). At some point they probably need to start winning games.
NL Bye Situation:
San Diego (91.7%) is struggling mightily, not even in first of their own division, and accordingly my sheet has punished them with the righteous hammer of consequence, dropping their Bye % to only the low 90s. Milwaukee (37.4%) is the #2 by elimination; my sheet doesn't think the Phillies are legit (even though they've been better than the Brewers in every way so far) and the NL South is a clusterduck. Milwaukee is 29-20 with a strong roster, so that makes them the next best guess. Miami (20.1%) has a serious shot, with a solid record 27-22 and outstanding WAR (+1.22). Philadelphia (14.4%) has all the makings of a bye team based on their season so far. And Washington (14.2%) shouldn't be counted out. Carolina (10.2%) has a shot. Have I mentioned that the NL has a lot of competitive teams?
NL Division Winners Situation:
Philly (93.7%) is expected to romp through their division by 13 wins at this point. Milwaukee (96.2%) is also a 13-win favorite for now. Given that the Padres (99.9%) are actually a game behind in their Division, the sheet only expects them to win it by 12 games. "But why?" I hear you saying. First off, because the Padres' roster is bonkers. And second, San Diego's WAR Rating (+1.69) compared to LA's (+0.44) and San Fran's (+0.53) suggests an endgame 15+ win difference in quality. San Diego is playing way, way better than their competitors, they just aren't winning as much as they ought. They're still the prohibitive favorite. The NL South is going to be a fantastic, insane race. Our competitors:
Miami Marlins: 27-22, +1.22 WAR Rating, 87-win roster, 89.9 expected wins
Washington Nationals: 23-26, +0.15 WAR Rating, 100-win roster, 89.2 expected wins
Carolina Warhounds: 29-20, +0.25 WAR Rating, 84-win roster, 87.6 expected wins
I get it, Washington's six games back from Carolina and four behind Miami. And they have the lowest WAR of the three. How can they possibly still win? Except for the fact that, you know, they did this exact same crap last year and still won by several games. We'll see, but this is anyone's division at this point.
NL Wild Card Situation:
The Los Angeles Dodgers (69.2%) have to be feeling pretty good about being ahead of the Padres, even if only for a bit. Their record (30-19) is excellent, even if their WR (+0.44) isn't overwhelming. Miami (68.5%) is playing great baseball (+1.22 WR) with a solid record (27-22). Washington (62.0%) is playing badly so far, but is still by far the best roster of these wild card teams, so they are to be counted out very cautiously. Carolina (47.3%) delights in doing something completely new every two weeks. This time they decided to be good, posting a great record (29-20), even if their WR is a little unimpressive (+0.25). San Francisco (47.0%) is suffering from a tight NL this year. They're 28-21 with a +0.53 WAR Rating; in almost any other year that'd be a pretty good playoff shot. As it is, they're in the hunt, but far from a sure thing.
In the interests of clarity, all the top teams in the NL South are listed as Wild Card teams, because there is no front-runner.
AL Bye Situation:
Texas (65.6%) remains the frontrunner, with an excellent record (30-19) and the best WAR in the league. Chicago (58.4%) has a slightly worse WAR than Colorado, but an extra win. And Colorado (49.4%) is doing excellently too, just not quite as well as the other two.
AL Division Winners Situation:
The AL division-winners look to be already locked in. The Yankees (99.9%) are still expected to win their division by 20+ games. The despite the tight race going on in the AL Central, the White Sox (99.4%) are currently forecast to win their division by 12 games. The Rockies (99.9%) are forecast to win theirs by 20+. And Texas (99.5%) is expected to win theirs by 16.
AL Wild Card Situation:
Don't look now, but the Minnesota Twins (69.1%) are continuing their hot streak. They're now 31-18 (tied for best record in the AL) with a +0.94 WAR Rating. They're clearly overperforming, but with their record they could go 500 the rest of the way and still win 87 games. They are now the Wild Card frontrunner for the American League. Cleveland (63.4%) is performing like an average team (24-25 with -0.02 WR) but they still have a strong roster. They are expected to turn things around, at least to the point of finishing in the mid-80s (Sanchez coming back in a month will help). The Royals (45.5%) are continuing to post an average record (24-25) and suck all over the place (-0.76 WR). It's possible that losing two of the best players in the league (Bill Kachmar and Enrique Vasquez) to injury may have adversely affected their performance. However, Kachmar's ready to roll and Vasquez will be back within the month, so Kansas City still has a legit shot. But they need the rest of their roster to, you know, actually play well. Tampa Bay (21.2%) is continuing the trend: slightly positive WAR (+0.13) and disappointing record (21-28). At some point they probably need to start winning games.
NL Bye Situation:
San Diego (91.7%) is struggling mightily, not even in first of their own division, and accordingly my sheet has punished them with the righteous hammer of consequence, dropping their Bye % to only the low 90s. Milwaukee (37.4%) is the #2 by elimination; my sheet doesn't think the Phillies are legit (even though they've been better than the Brewers in every way so far) and the NL South is a clusterduck. Milwaukee is 29-20 with a strong roster, so that makes them the next best guess. Miami (20.1%) has a serious shot, with a solid record 27-22 and outstanding WAR (+1.22). Philadelphia (14.4%) has all the makings of a bye team based on their season so far. And Washington (14.2%) shouldn't be counted out. Carolina (10.2%) has a shot. Have I mentioned that the NL has a lot of competitive teams?
NL Division Winners Situation:
Philly (93.7%) is expected to romp through their division by 13 wins at this point. Milwaukee (96.2%) is also a 13-win favorite for now. Given that the Padres (99.9%) are actually a game behind in their Division, the sheet only expects them to win it by 12 games. "But why?" I hear you saying. First off, because the Padres' roster is bonkers. And second, San Diego's WAR Rating (+1.69) compared to LA's (+0.44) and San Fran's (+0.53) suggests an endgame 15+ win difference in quality. San Diego is playing way, way better than their competitors, they just aren't winning as much as they ought. They're still the prohibitive favorite. The NL South is going to be a fantastic, insane race. Our competitors:
Miami Marlins: 27-22, +1.22 WAR Rating, 87-win roster, 89.9 expected wins
Washington Nationals: 23-26, +0.15 WAR Rating, 100-win roster, 89.2 expected wins
Carolina Warhounds: 29-20, +0.25 WAR Rating, 84-win roster, 87.6 expected wins
I get it, Washington's six games back from Carolina and four behind Miami. And they have the lowest WAR of the three. How can they possibly still win? Except for the fact that, you know, they did this exact same crap last year and still won by several games. We'll see, but this is anyone's division at this point.
NL Wild Card Situation:
The Los Angeles Dodgers (69.2%) have to be feeling pretty good about being ahead of the Padres, even if only for a bit. Their record (30-19) is excellent, even if their WR (+0.44) isn't overwhelming. Miami (68.5%) is playing great baseball (+1.22 WR) with a solid record (27-22). Washington (62.0%) is playing badly so far, but is still by far the best roster of these wild card teams, so they are to be counted out very cautiously. Carolina (47.3%) delights in doing something completely new every two weeks. This time they decided to be good, posting a great record (29-20), even if their WR is a little unimpressive (+0.25). San Francisco (47.0%) is suffering from a tight NL this year. They're 28-21 with a +0.53 WAR Rating; in almost any other year that'd be a pretty good playoff shot. As it is, they're in the hunt, but far from a sure thing.
In the interests of clarity, all the top teams in the NL South are listed as Wild Card teams, because there is no front-runner.