2054 PBL Playoff Situation - 5/18/54
Apr 9, 2020 9:18:22 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, Tim_GiantsGM, and 3 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Apr 9, 2020 9:18:22 GMT -5
AL Bye Situation:
This is essentially a three-team race. My sheet has Texas at 64.4%, Chicago at 52.3% and Colorado at 51.3%. All three have good records (Chicago with 24 wins, the other two at 23), all have strong WAR Ratings (+1.7 for Colorado, +1.53 for Texas, +1.23 for Chicago). And all three had strong preseason forecasts. Good odds that it'll be one of these teams.
AL Division Situation:
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Yankees have the AL East in hand. They're currently forecast to win their division by 24 games . . . so yeah. It's a mistake to count out Cleveland, but Chicago has a 6-game lead already, more than a standard deviation in WAR lead and is forecast to finish ten games ahead of Cleveland. So, that race is probably wrapped. Colorado is expected to finish 24 games ahead of the 2nd place team, so that one's probably done. And, frankly, Texas probably has the ALWest South locked down. They only have a 3-game lead on Kansas City, but had the stronger roster (according to forecast) and they're actually playing well. Kansas City has been actually bad, with a WAR rating of -0.62. Is this a true reflection of their abilities? Of course not. But factoring this data into the preseason forecast and Kansas City only looks like an 89-win team while Texas is playing like a 100-win team. Anything could happen, but Texas is in a very good position. All of these four teams are forecast at 99% or higher for the playoffs.
AL Wild Card Situation:
Kansas City (75.3%) still has to be considered the frontrunner; they're 20-17 even with an awful WAR; their roster is strong enough that they have to be taken seriously. Cleveland (68.5%) is only 18-19 with an average WAR, but they're a deep roster that always finds a way to compete. This forecast doesn't consider Alfredo Sanchez, so it's overly rosy, but still. I don't know if anyone's noticed, but Minnesota (29.3%) has been playing their butts off so far. They're 22-15 with a very nice WAR rating (+0.74). This is the 4th best record in the AL, and the 5th best WAR. That said, my sheet only expects them to finish with 82-83 wins. Their lackluster preseason forecast basically suggests that you should take the to-date performance with a big grain of salt. If they keep it up they're in, but generally teams that come out of nowhere in the first two months go back to nowhere about 2/3 of the time. Still, an impressive showing thus far. Tampa Bay (21.8%) just can't catch a break. They've got an above-average WAR (+0.16) but an awful record, only 15-22 so far. Even though my sheet still thinks they're good, it only thinks that they're good enough to break even by the end of the year. It blows, because if they even had a 500 record at this point, and if Minnesota weren't playing so well, they'd probably be at 40% odds or better to run down Cleveland or KC.
NL Bye Situation:
This is another three-team race, or rather two half-teams and one whole team. San Diego is currently at 94.5% for a bye, which is pretty low for them. It's not their performance or roster, both are excellent (+1.90 WAR rating). It's that they're only 22-15, tied with the Dodgers and only two games ahead of the Giants. Are they still going to win the division by 10+ games? Probably. But it's not as commanding a position as they're usually in. Team #2 is actually the Milwaukee Brewers, who are weirdly at 46.7%. This isn't because the Brewers have been dominant (though they're tied for the best record in the NL); they're still only at a +0.51 WAR Rating. But at this point the Brewers have a better WAR rating than the Nationals and a five-game lead over the Nationals. The Nats are considered to have the better team, but a five-game lead is worth a lot. Washington is honestly playing well (+0.45 WAR) but their mediocre record (19-18) puts them at a serious disadvantage in a bye competition; my sheet still puts them at 40%. And because it's worth bringing up, Philadelphia is not considered higher than 5% right now; even though their record is great (24-13) and their WAR is very strong (+0.91), their preseason forecast keeps the sheet from taking them too seriously. Of course, if the sheet is wrong then Philadelphia could be pretty competitive.
NL Division Situation:
At this point Philadelphia (83.1%) is expected to win their division by 10 games. They have a five-game lead on the Mets and Expos and boast the only positive WAR rating in the division. Milwaukee (96.4%) is expected to win their division by 11 games at this point. Are they 11 games better than the Reds? Of course not. But the Reds actually have a below-average WAR so far and a weirdly bad record (16-21). When Milwaukee already has an 8 game lead on the Reds . . . that's going to be hard to overcome. Despite being tight in the standings, San Diego (100%) is expected to win their division by 16 games. This is what happens when you have a monster roster combined with a massively superior WAR Rating (+1.90 vs +0.41 and +0.36). That doesn't look huge, but at this point, 1 point of WAR Rating, if extended over the season, would be worth about 14 wins in expected performance (ie, a +1.00 WAR rating team at this point, if the league continued in this way, would be expected to finish around 95 wins, and a -1.00 WAR rating team would be expected to finish around 67 wins). Washington (92.2%) has the weakest grasp on their division, and is still expected to win by 9 games. They're a game ahead of Carolina and Miami, and honestly don't have a terribly superior WAR at this point (+0.45 compared with -0.09 and +0.51 respectively). It's really just a matter of Washington being forecast as a dominant team in the preseason, and not enough has happened to discourage the sheet from that so far.
NL Wild Card Situation:
The Los Angeles Dodgers (68.4%) have to be considered front-runners here. They have a strong record (22-15), a solid WAR (+0.36) and a decent preseason forecast. More than that, the teams they were expected to fight with are all behind them; the Giants are 2 games back, Marlins and Warhounds four games back and Reds six games back. The Miami Marlins (42.4%) are actually expected to finish with the same record as the Giants, but have a better shot at winning their division. The Marlins have been playing well (+0.51 WAR Rating) but have been getting unlucky in record (18-19). So they're basically where they were before the season started. They're doing well, but with an 18-19 record it's hard to be forecast optimistically. The San Francisco Giants (40.3%) are doing pretty well. They're 20-17 with a +0.41 WAR rating. This is a fairly solid position, but given how crowded the NL Wild Card is, there's still a good chance something goes wrong. The Cincinnati Reds (30.6%) chances are purely driven by their strong roster quality. They're 16-21 (that's four games out of the wild card, with a whopping eight potential wild card teams above them) and are posting only an average WAR (-0.09). The sheet still thinks that there's a 3 in 10 chance that the Reds turn this around and run the table the rest of the way. Heck, my sheet thinks that they'll go 67-58 for the remainder of the year. That's a good looking record, but it would only put them at 83 wins. They're a good team having a fluky bad year. The Carolina Warhounds (20.5%) had a crap-tastic two weeks. They went from a great record and WAR to a mediocre record (18-19) and an average WAR (-0.09). Can they turn it around? Of course! There are just a lot of good teams between them and the playoffs. But there's a lot of season to go yet.
Teams showing a < 10% playoff chance were not discussed here, but they absolutely still exist.
This is essentially a three-team race. My sheet has Texas at 64.4%, Chicago at 52.3% and Colorado at 51.3%. All three have good records (Chicago with 24 wins, the other two at 23), all have strong WAR Ratings (+1.7 for Colorado, +1.53 for Texas, +1.23 for Chicago). And all three had strong preseason forecasts. Good odds that it'll be one of these teams.
AL Division Situation:
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Yankees have the AL East in hand. They're currently forecast to win their division by 24 games . . . so yeah. It's a mistake to count out Cleveland, but Chicago has a 6-game lead already, more than a standard deviation in WAR lead and is forecast to finish ten games ahead of Cleveland. So, that race is probably wrapped. Colorado is expected to finish 24 games ahead of the 2nd place team, so that one's probably done. And, frankly, Texas probably has the AL
AL Wild Card Situation:
Kansas City (75.3%) still has to be considered the frontrunner; they're 20-17 even with an awful WAR; their roster is strong enough that they have to be taken seriously. Cleveland (68.5%) is only 18-19 with an average WAR, but they're a deep roster that always finds a way to compete. This forecast doesn't consider Alfredo Sanchez, so it's overly rosy, but still. I don't know if anyone's noticed, but Minnesota (29.3%) has been playing their butts off so far. They're 22-15 with a very nice WAR rating (+0.74). This is the 4th best record in the AL, and the 5th best WAR. That said, my sheet only expects them to finish with 82-83 wins. Their lackluster preseason forecast basically suggests that you should take the to-date performance with a big grain of salt. If they keep it up they're in, but generally teams that come out of nowhere in the first two months go back to nowhere about 2/3 of the time. Still, an impressive showing thus far. Tampa Bay (21.8%) just can't catch a break. They've got an above-average WAR (+0.16) but an awful record, only 15-22 so far. Even though my sheet still thinks they're good, it only thinks that they're good enough to break even by the end of the year. It blows, because if they even had a 500 record at this point, and if Minnesota weren't playing so well, they'd probably be at 40% odds or better to run down Cleveland or KC.
NL Bye Situation:
This is another three-team race, or rather two half-teams and one whole team. San Diego is currently at 94.5% for a bye, which is pretty low for them. It's not their performance or roster, both are excellent (+1.90 WAR rating). It's that they're only 22-15, tied with the Dodgers and only two games ahead of the Giants. Are they still going to win the division by 10+ games? Probably. But it's not as commanding a position as they're usually in. Team #2 is actually the Milwaukee Brewers, who are weirdly at 46.7%. This isn't because the Brewers have been dominant (though they're tied for the best record in the NL); they're still only at a +0.51 WAR Rating. But at this point the Brewers have a better WAR rating than the Nationals and a five-game lead over the Nationals. The Nats are considered to have the better team, but a five-game lead is worth a lot. Washington is honestly playing well (+0.45 WAR) but their mediocre record (19-18) puts them at a serious disadvantage in a bye competition; my sheet still puts them at 40%. And because it's worth bringing up, Philadelphia is not considered higher than 5% right now; even though their record is great (24-13) and their WAR is very strong (+0.91), their preseason forecast keeps the sheet from taking them too seriously. Of course, if the sheet is wrong then Philadelphia could be pretty competitive.
NL Division Situation:
At this point Philadelphia (83.1%) is expected to win their division by 10 games. They have a five-game lead on the Mets and Expos and boast the only positive WAR rating in the division. Milwaukee (96.4%) is expected to win their division by 11 games at this point. Are they 11 games better than the Reds? Of course not. But the Reds actually have a below-average WAR so far and a weirdly bad record (16-21). When Milwaukee already has an 8 game lead on the Reds . . . that's going to be hard to overcome. Despite being tight in the standings, San Diego (100%) is expected to win their division by 16 games. This is what happens when you have a monster roster combined with a massively superior WAR Rating (+1.90 vs +0.41 and +0.36). That doesn't look huge, but at this point, 1 point of WAR Rating, if extended over the season, would be worth about 14 wins in expected performance (ie, a +1.00 WAR rating team at this point, if the league continued in this way, would be expected to finish around 95 wins, and a -1.00 WAR rating team would be expected to finish around 67 wins). Washington (92.2%) has the weakest grasp on their division, and is still expected to win by 9 games. They're a game ahead of Carolina and Miami, and honestly don't have a terribly superior WAR at this point (+0.45 compared with -0.09 and +0.51 respectively). It's really just a matter of Washington being forecast as a dominant team in the preseason, and not enough has happened to discourage the sheet from that so far.
NL Wild Card Situation:
The Los Angeles Dodgers (68.4%) have to be considered front-runners here. They have a strong record (22-15), a solid WAR (+0.36) and a decent preseason forecast. More than that, the teams they were expected to fight with are all behind them; the Giants are 2 games back, Marlins and Warhounds four games back and Reds six games back. The Miami Marlins (42.4%) are actually expected to finish with the same record as the Giants, but have a better shot at winning their division. The Marlins have been playing well (+0.51 WAR Rating) but have been getting unlucky in record (18-19). So they're basically where they were before the season started. They're doing well, but with an 18-19 record it's hard to be forecast optimistically. The San Francisco Giants (40.3%) are doing pretty well. They're 20-17 with a +0.41 WAR rating. This is a fairly solid position, but given how crowded the NL Wild Card is, there's still a good chance something goes wrong. The Cincinnati Reds (30.6%) chances are purely driven by their strong roster quality. They're 16-21 (that's four games out of the wild card, with a whopping eight potential wild card teams above them) and are posting only an average WAR (-0.09). The sheet still thinks that there's a 3 in 10 chance that the Reds turn this around and run the table the rest of the way. Heck, my sheet thinks that they'll go 67-58 for the remainder of the year. That's a good looking record, but it would only put them at 83 wins. They're a good team having a fluky bad year. The Carolina Warhounds (20.5%) had a crap-tastic two weeks. They went from a great record and WAR to a mediocre record (18-19) and an average WAR (-0.09). Can they turn it around? Of course! There are just a lot of good teams between them and the playoffs. But there's a lot of season to go yet.
Teams showing a < 10% playoff chance were not discussed here, but they absolutely still exist.