2054 PBL Playoff Movement - Four Weeks In
Apr 6, 2020 7:57:18 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, craigWhiteSox, and 3 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Apr 6, 2020 7:57:18 GMT -5
WAR Rating: How many standard deviations above average a team's WAR is. 0 is average. + 1 is reasonably contender level, +2 is extremely dominant. -1 is pretty bad and -2 is tankapalooza.
AL East:
So. The Yankees are only 11-13, a game out of first, but my sheet actually has them improving in Playoff Odds (from 98.9% preseason to 99.3% now. What's up? Simply said, that 1.1% of the time where the Yankees lose the division, a lot of stuff has to go *really* wrong. They need to be losing left and right, someone in their division has to be winning a ton. That hasn't happened. Even if 11-13 is worse than everyone expected, including my sheet, they're only one game out. They still have a positive WAR rating. And their division (by WAR) has been fairly awful, posting WAR Ratings of -0.90, -1.32 and -1.98. For the Yankees' chance of missing the playoffs to increase, they have to struggle *and* someone needs to seriously threaten them. That hasn't happened yet.
AL Central:
The White Sox continue their cruise, emerging as one of the three teams in the AL most likely to get a bye (at 56.5% odds right now). Cleveland isn't in a great position, but they're only 12-12 and their WAR is only slightly below average. Of course, my sheet doesn't know about Alfredo Sanchez or the sell-off to St. Louis. Minnesota has upped their playoff odds from 1.2% preseason to 6.2% now. They're 13-11 with a WAR Rating of +0.53. They're still only expected to win 78.5 games, but they're doing better than expected.
AL West:
Colorado is currently considered the top team in the AL (by a little bit). They're 16-8, they have the best WAR in the AL (+1.73 WAR Rating) and have the highest chance at a bye (61.5%).
AL South:
Everyone has weird records relative to their WAR. Texas' WAR is doing great, but they're only 13-11. The Royals' WAR is struggling (-0.56 WAR Rating) but are 14-10. Tampa Bay is doing great (0.87 WAR Rating) but is only 11-13. Tampa Bay's playoff odds are 5% up (41%) but everything else in the division is fairly stable.
NL East:
Weirdly, my sheet thinks that we're at about preseason levels of odds. Philly may be two games back, but they've played better than the Mets to date (+0.41 to -0.33). My sheet calls it a coin flip at this point.
NL Central:
You'd think that my sheet would be announcing that Milwaukee's odds have improved, but they haven't. This isn't because of their record (which is tied for the best in the NL somehow), but because they've actually not played very well (+0.12). They're still sitting around 83%. Cincinnati has been downgraded considerably, from 69% to 48%. This is a little bit record (12-12), a little bit WAR (-0.10) and mostly the rest of the league (at this point the Dodgers, Carolina and Miami are all projected to finish above the Reds, if not by a lot).
NL West:
The Padres are about where you'd expect (already 100% playoffs and 95% bye), the Dodgers are about where you'd expect in preseason (47% playoffs, 87.4 wins), but the Giants are downgraded a bit from preseason (29% to 21%). It's not their record (12-12) or WAR (+0.32) but the Dodgers, Marlins and Warhounds all doing well.
NL South:
The Nationals have thrown up a +0.92 WAR rating at this point, and while they may be two games back, they're still predicted to win the division with room to spare (by 8 games to be specific). The Marlins are doing well (13-11 and +0.82 WAR), but it's only bumped their odds by 3.4% to 47.8% overall, and this next team has a lot to do with that.
The Warhounds may be the surprise team of the year so far, going 15-9 with a +1.61 WAR Rating. They're now expected to win 89.3 games, their Playoff Odds are up to 59.8% (from 30.9% in preseason) and they've single-handedly endangered the odds of every single wild-card-contender in the NL (except the Marlins, which is a credit to how well they're doing).
AL East:
So. The Yankees are only 11-13, a game out of first, but my sheet actually has them improving in Playoff Odds (from 98.9% preseason to 99.3% now. What's up? Simply said, that 1.1% of the time where the Yankees lose the division, a lot of stuff has to go *really* wrong. They need to be losing left and right, someone in their division has to be winning a ton. That hasn't happened. Even if 11-13 is worse than everyone expected, including my sheet, they're only one game out. They still have a positive WAR rating. And their division (by WAR) has been fairly awful, posting WAR Ratings of -0.90, -1.32 and -1.98. For the Yankees' chance of missing the playoffs to increase, they have to struggle *and* someone needs to seriously threaten them. That hasn't happened yet.
AL Central:
The White Sox continue their cruise, emerging as one of the three teams in the AL most likely to get a bye (at 56.5% odds right now). Cleveland isn't in a great position, but they're only 12-12 and their WAR is only slightly below average. Of course, my sheet doesn't know about Alfredo Sanchez or the sell-off to St. Louis. Minnesota has upped their playoff odds from 1.2% preseason to 6.2% now. They're 13-11 with a WAR Rating of +0.53. They're still only expected to win 78.5 games, but they're doing better than expected.
AL West:
Colorado is currently considered the top team in the AL (by a little bit). They're 16-8, they have the best WAR in the AL (+1.73 WAR Rating) and have the highest chance at a bye (61.5%).
AL South:
Everyone has weird records relative to their WAR. Texas' WAR is doing great, but they're only 13-11. The Royals' WAR is struggling (-0.56 WAR Rating) but are 14-10. Tampa Bay is doing great (0.87 WAR Rating) but is only 11-13. Tampa Bay's playoff odds are 5% up (41%) but everything else in the division is fairly stable.
NL East:
Weirdly, my sheet thinks that we're at about preseason levels of odds. Philly may be two games back, but they've played better than the Mets to date (+0.41 to -0.33). My sheet calls it a coin flip at this point.
NL Central:
You'd think that my sheet would be announcing that Milwaukee's odds have improved, but they haven't. This isn't because of their record (which is tied for the best in the NL somehow), but because they've actually not played very well (+0.12). They're still sitting around 83%. Cincinnati has been downgraded considerably, from 69% to 48%. This is a little bit record (12-12), a little bit WAR (-0.10) and mostly the rest of the league (at this point the Dodgers, Carolina and Miami are all projected to finish above the Reds, if not by a lot).
NL West:
The Padres are about where you'd expect (already 100% playoffs and 95% bye), the Dodgers are about where you'd expect in preseason (47% playoffs, 87.4 wins), but the Giants are downgraded a bit from preseason (29% to 21%). It's not their record (12-12) or WAR (+0.32) but the Dodgers, Marlins and Warhounds all doing well.
NL South:
The Nationals have thrown up a +0.92 WAR rating at this point, and while they may be two games back, they're still predicted to win the division with room to spare (by 8 games to be specific). The Marlins are doing well (13-11 and +0.82 WAR), but it's only bumped their odds by 3.4% to 47.8% overall, and this next team has a lot to do with that.
The Warhounds may be the surprise team of the year so far, going 15-9 with a +1.61 WAR Rating. They're now expected to win 89.3 games, their Playoff Odds are up to 59.8% (from 30.9% in preseason) and they've single-handedly endangered the odds of every single wild-card-contender in the NL (except the Marlins, which is a credit to how well they're doing).