2054 PBL Prospectus - NL Central
Mar 25, 2020 18:29:36 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, Texas Rangers, and 2 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Mar 25, 2020 18:29:36 GMT -5
NL Central
#1. Milwaukee Brewers, 91.6 wins (3rd)
Hitters/Fielders: +1.15 (3rd), Pitching: +1.24 (3rd)
Compared with Last Year? Much improved pitching should help the Brewers break the 90-win plateau.
Don't hate me. My sheet does tend to overestimate the Brewers, and I did compensate (some) for that. Batting-wise, the Brewers are a little worse than last year. We lost Fraser Ross and Kelly Harmon, but the improvement of Rory Strong slightly offsets that. But the biggest change is in the pitching. The midseason acquisition of Carlos Gutierrez, the offseason acquisition of Kenny Ibarra, and the improvement of Jose Nunez all combine to make the rotation much better than last year. Furthermore, the Brewers, while lacking an ace closer, have a deeper bullpen than they ever have in the past. All I'm saying is that last year the Brewers won 88 games, and since then they added Kenny Ibarra. Breaking 90 wins seems plausible.
#2. Cincinnati Reds, 88.8 wins (4th)
Hitters/Fielders: +0.67 (5th), Pitching: +0.87 (4th)
Compared with Last Year? Honestly the roster is pretty similar. But last year's 100+ win performance may not happen.
It's the usual story. The Reds are a fairly old team, regressed a little (Armando Tellez) and let Steve Bauer go in free agency. To offset the losses they add a high-end free agent (Gerald Callahan). Their rotation is weak for a contender, but their bullpen may be the best in the PBL. Overall, they're about the same team as last year. Yeah, they won 106 games last year, but they had the WAR of a 95-win team. Cincinnati may well be better than Milwaukee again. And if so, Sean will be happy to remind me of this post
#3. St. Louis Cardinals, 71.9 wins (12th)
Hitters/Fielders: -0.67 (12th), Pitching: -0.44 (10th)
Compared with Last Year? A repeat of last year's low-70s record seems probable.
It should go without saying that the Cardinals are worse than they were at this time last year. It's not that they're awful. Their bullpen is pretty good, their rotation is deep if aceless and they have few glaring weaknesses in their lineup. It's just a roster that's been deliberately shorn of star power (minus Padilla) and its predicted record is consistent with that.
#4. Chicago Cubs, 66.5 wins (15th)
Hitters/Fielders: -1.77 (15th), Pitching: -0.45 (11th)
Compared with Last Year? It's a worse roster than they had last year, but they underperformed a bit. Mid 60s seems reasonable.
Let's focus on the bright side. Both Chance Wall and Berhanu "Call Me Bernard" Pnyango have taken big steps forward. And the bullpen is actually pretty good.
#1. Milwaukee Brewers, 91.6 wins (3rd)
Hitters/Fielders: +1.15 (3rd), Pitching: +1.24 (3rd)
Compared with Last Year? Much improved pitching should help the Brewers break the 90-win plateau.
Don't hate me. My sheet does tend to overestimate the Brewers, and I did compensate (some) for that. Batting-wise, the Brewers are a little worse than last year. We lost Fraser Ross and Kelly Harmon, but the improvement of Rory Strong slightly offsets that. But the biggest change is in the pitching. The midseason acquisition of Carlos Gutierrez, the offseason acquisition of Kenny Ibarra, and the improvement of Jose Nunez all combine to make the rotation much better than last year. Furthermore, the Brewers, while lacking an ace closer, have a deeper bullpen than they ever have in the past. All I'm saying is that last year the Brewers won 88 games, and since then they added Kenny Ibarra. Breaking 90 wins seems plausible.
#2. Cincinnati Reds, 88.8 wins (4th)
Hitters/Fielders: +0.67 (5th), Pitching: +0.87 (4th)
Compared with Last Year? Honestly the roster is pretty similar. But last year's 100+ win performance may not happen.
It's the usual story. The Reds are a fairly old team, regressed a little (Armando Tellez) and let Steve Bauer go in free agency. To offset the losses they add a high-end free agent (Gerald Callahan). Their rotation is weak for a contender, but their bullpen may be the best in the PBL. Overall, they're about the same team as last year. Yeah, they won 106 games last year, but they had the WAR of a 95-win team. Cincinnati may well be better than Milwaukee again. And if so, Sean will be happy to remind me of this post
#3. St. Louis Cardinals, 71.9 wins (12th)
Hitters/Fielders: -0.67 (12th), Pitching: -0.44 (10th)
Compared with Last Year? A repeat of last year's low-70s record seems probable.
It should go without saying that the Cardinals are worse than they were at this time last year. It's not that they're awful. Their bullpen is pretty good, their rotation is deep if aceless and they have few glaring weaknesses in their lineup. It's just a roster that's been deliberately shorn of star power (minus Padilla) and its predicted record is consistent with that.
#4. Chicago Cubs, 66.5 wins (15th)
Hitters/Fielders: -1.77 (15th), Pitching: -0.45 (11th)
Compared with Last Year? It's a worse roster than they had last year, but they underperformed a bit. Mid 60s seems reasonable.
Let's focus on the bright side. Both Chance Wall and Berhanu "Call Me Bernard" Pnyango have taken big steps forward. And the bullpen is actually pretty good.