2054 PBL Prospectus - NL South
Mar 25, 2020 8:00:50 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, Sean_RedsGM, and 2 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Mar 25, 2020 8:00:50 GMT -5
NL South
#1. Washington Nationals, 99.4 wins (2nd)
Hitting/Fielding: +1.42 (2nd), Pitching: +1.71 (2nd)
Compared to Last Year? Last year was a wild underperformance, so expect a better year.
The easy storyline to write here is that the Nationals are resurgent, that they've retooled their struggling roster from last year and are a contender again. That's a load of crap. The Nats last year probably had the second best roster in the NL, and despite having a fluky-bad first half of the year, still won the pennant. This team is slightly better than last year's edition, but last year's edition underperformed. My sheet thinks that the Nats are the clear #2 team in the NL, just like last year.
How are they better? Aureliano Cervantes is already able to make a serious contribution at the ML level, and both Raymond Page and Ken Pope are actually improved from last year (don't ask). If you're looking for regression, Chris Allen is a little worse. But their bats are still excellent. And their pitching is improved as well. Robles is better, Garcia took a jump, Sizemore improved . . . even Bo Moore's regression doesn't hurt that much; this team's #5 starter is as good as several teams' #2. And of course, a strong though not dominant bullpen. Anything can happen, but the Nats are very good.
#2. Miami Marlins, 86.0 wins (6th)
Hitting/Fielding: +0.30 (6th), Pitching: +0.57 (5th)
Compared with Last Year? The Marlins are much better, but they also overperformed. So while I expect them to be good, 92 wins may be pushing it.
The Marlins are much improved from last year's roster. Their hitting is about the same; the loss/implosion of Ohara hurts but the addition of Burt Hooper and an assortment of youngsters keeps things reasonably solid. But on the pitching side, Miami is very good. Their rotation is deep and has solid top-end talent in Juan Garcia and recently acquired Silva from the Indians. Villalobos is a very good closer and their bullpen is deep. The Marlins have a very nice roster. But this year is forecast to be like last year; eight above-average teams fighting for five playoff spots. It won't be easy for anyone.
#3. Carolina Warhounds, 83.3 wins (7th)
Hitting/Fielding: +0.20 (8th), Pitching: +0.19 (6th)
Compared with Last Year? The Warhounds are better than last year, but that only enters them in a brutal wild-card race.
The Warhounds and the Nats caught the same first-half bug and both struggled. Both teams ended with a record that was lower than it should have been, but not unreasonable. Their improvements are on the hitting side, almost all from youth improvements (of which the Warhounds should see much in the next several years). Jimmy Green is better, Miguel Andrade is already able to contribute at the ML level, Kong Kuang was acquired from Arizona to round out the outfield . . . They're simply better across the board. We're not talking a quantum leap here; they just have fewer weak spots and the average level of talent has risen. And with such a young core, mid-season improvements are definitely on the table.
As far as pitching, this remains the Walt Perez show. Perez, who regressed a bit, is still one of the top 10 pitchers in the league. But after him the talent is solid though unremarkable (though better than last year). At this moment the Warhounds have a realistic shot at the playoffs, but if their youngsters take jumps early enough, anything is possible.
#4. Atlanta Braves, 73.6 wins (11th)
Hitting/Fielding: -0.43 (11th), Pitching: -0.54 (12th)
Compared with Last Year? A little better than last year, but the NL South and NL West are tough divisions to be the fourth team in.
The Braves' roster is still in transition. They've got lots of little improvements; Jamison is better, Burns is better, Harrison is better, there are reasons to be upbeat. But we're still looking at a thin rotation (though oddly solid bullpen) and a lineup without major holes but also without any All-Stars to carry it. Not a bad team, but not their year.
#1. Washington Nationals, 99.4 wins (2nd)
Hitting/Fielding: +1.42 (2nd), Pitching: +1.71 (2nd)
Compared to Last Year? Last year was a wild underperformance, so expect a better year.
The easy storyline to write here is that the Nationals are resurgent, that they've retooled their struggling roster from last year and are a contender again. That's a load of crap. The Nats last year probably had the second best roster in the NL, and despite having a fluky-bad first half of the year, still won the pennant. This team is slightly better than last year's edition, but last year's edition underperformed. My sheet thinks that the Nats are the clear #2 team in the NL, just like last year.
How are they better? Aureliano Cervantes is already able to make a serious contribution at the ML level, and both Raymond Page and Ken Pope are actually improved from last year (don't ask). If you're looking for regression, Chris Allen is a little worse. But their bats are still excellent. And their pitching is improved as well. Robles is better, Garcia took a jump, Sizemore improved . . . even Bo Moore's regression doesn't hurt that much; this team's #5 starter is as good as several teams' #2. And of course, a strong though not dominant bullpen. Anything can happen, but the Nats are very good.
#2. Miami Marlins, 86.0 wins (6th)
Hitting/Fielding: +0.30 (6th), Pitching: +0.57 (5th)
Compared with Last Year? The Marlins are much better, but they also overperformed. So while I expect them to be good, 92 wins may be pushing it.
The Marlins are much improved from last year's roster. Their hitting is about the same; the loss/implosion of Ohara hurts but the addition of Burt Hooper and an assortment of youngsters keeps things reasonably solid. But on the pitching side, Miami is very good. Their rotation is deep and has solid top-end talent in Juan Garcia and recently acquired Silva from the Indians. Villalobos is a very good closer and their bullpen is deep. The Marlins have a very nice roster. But this year is forecast to be like last year; eight above-average teams fighting for five playoff spots. It won't be easy for anyone.
#3. Carolina Warhounds, 83.3 wins (7th)
Hitting/Fielding: +0.20 (8th), Pitching: +0.19 (6th)
Compared with Last Year? The Warhounds are better than last year, but that only enters them in a brutal wild-card race.
The Warhounds and the Nats caught the same first-half bug and both struggled. Both teams ended with a record that was lower than it should have been, but not unreasonable. Their improvements are on the hitting side, almost all from youth improvements (of which the Warhounds should see much in the next several years). Jimmy Green is better, Miguel Andrade is already able to contribute at the ML level, Kong Kuang was acquired from Arizona to round out the outfield . . . They're simply better across the board. We're not talking a quantum leap here; they just have fewer weak spots and the average level of talent has risen. And with such a young core, mid-season improvements are definitely on the table.
As far as pitching, this remains the Walt Perez show. Perez, who regressed a bit, is still one of the top 10 pitchers in the league. But after him the talent is solid though unremarkable (though better than last year). At this moment the Warhounds have a realistic shot at the playoffs, but if their youngsters take jumps early enough, anything is possible.
#4. Atlanta Braves, 73.6 wins (11th)
Hitting/Fielding: -0.43 (11th), Pitching: -0.54 (12th)
Compared with Last Year? A little better than last year, but the NL South and NL West are tough divisions to be the fourth team in.
The Braves' roster is still in transition. They've got lots of little improvements; Jamison is better, Burns is better, Harrison is better, there are reasons to be upbeat. But we're still looking at a thin rotation (though oddly solid bullpen) and a lineup without major holes but also without any All-Stars to carry it. Not a bad team, but not their year.