2054 PBL Prospectus - NL East
Mar 24, 2020 19:31:21 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, BlueJaysGM_Fin, and 2 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Mar 24, 2020 19:31:21 GMT -5
Disclaimer: a lot of people have asked me why certain teams tend to over/underperform my forecasts. I ran the numbers over the last six seasons and, it turns out, there are some teams that consistently under/overperform my forecasts. I don't understand exactly why certain teams do this and what this signifies, but the trend is large enough that it's worth taking into account. So I've adjusted all forecast numbers (including the AL) with reference to that data.
NL East
#1. Philadelphia Phillies, 75.3 wins (9th)
Hitting/Fielding: -0.37 (10th), Pitching: -0.78 (13th)
Compared with Last Year? My sheet didn't like the Phillies last year and they still won 89 games. So we'll see.
The Phillies improved their hitting slightly in the offseason, mostly in acquiring Yamashita to play catcher for them. And their pitching looks similar to last year; decent enough rotation with a weak bullpen. They honestly feel like last year's team. Which my sheet thinks overperformed. But it's been wrong before.
#2. New York Mets, 75.0 wins (10th)
Hitting/Fielding: -0.90 (13th), Pitching: -0.09 (7th)
Compared with Last Year? My sheet thinks that the Mets are a little better than last year's roster.
Things on the hitting front aren't terribly rosy. Francisco Garcia and Jorge Molina have both taken a step back from last year, though the addition of free agent Oscar Scott helps out. The real improvement was in the pitching. Fin took a big swing in free agency, landing George Briggs to lead his rotation. At the same time, Pepe Quintana took a nice step forward. Overall his rotation is much improved as is his bullpen. The hitters are the team's weak spot, but the pitching is good enough to keep the Mets having a real shot at the division.
#3. Montreal Expos, 70.1 wins (13th)
Hitting/Fielding: 0.00 (9th), Pitching: -1.13 (14th)
Compared with Last Year? The Expos are better than last year, and they should exceed last year's total.
The Expos pitching is much like last year. The only real change is the loss of Justin Richards to the Angels in midseason trade. Luckily, their bats are considerably improved. They're deeper, field a solid DH and most of all saw a huge jump forward for Johnny Smith. Their pitching will keep them from competing too much, but they still have a legitimate shot at the division. If I'm right about the Phillies . . .
#4. Pittsburgh Pirates, 62.2 wins (16th)
Hitting/Fielding: -1.20 (15th), Pitching: -1.39 (16th)
Compared to Last Year? Their pitching has taken a big step back; another season in the low 60s is probable.
Pittsburgh's bats are pretty much the same as last year. Pitching-wise, however, they're considerably worse. Salvador Nunez has regressed and their bullpen is pretty weak. It looks like another year of development in Pittsburgh.
NL East
#1. Philadelphia Phillies, 75.3 wins (9th)
Hitting/Fielding: -0.37 (10th), Pitching: -0.78 (13th)
Compared with Last Year? My sheet didn't like the Phillies last year and they still won 89 games. So we'll see.
The Phillies improved their hitting slightly in the offseason, mostly in acquiring Yamashita to play catcher for them. And their pitching looks similar to last year; decent enough rotation with a weak bullpen. They honestly feel like last year's team. Which my sheet thinks overperformed. But it's been wrong before.
#2. New York Mets, 75.0 wins (10th)
Hitting/Fielding: -0.90 (13th), Pitching: -0.09 (7th)
Compared with Last Year? My sheet thinks that the Mets are a little better than last year's roster.
Things on the hitting front aren't terribly rosy. Francisco Garcia and Jorge Molina have both taken a step back from last year, though the addition of free agent Oscar Scott helps out. The real improvement was in the pitching. Fin took a big swing in free agency, landing George Briggs to lead his rotation. At the same time, Pepe Quintana took a nice step forward. Overall his rotation is much improved as is his bullpen. The hitters are the team's weak spot, but the pitching is good enough to keep the Mets having a real shot at the division.
#3. Montreal Expos, 70.1 wins (13th)
Hitting/Fielding: 0.00 (9th), Pitching: -1.13 (14th)
Compared with Last Year? The Expos are better than last year, and they should exceed last year's total.
The Expos pitching is much like last year. The only real change is the loss of Justin Richards to the Angels in midseason trade. Luckily, their bats are considerably improved. They're deeper, field a solid DH and most of all saw a huge jump forward for Johnny Smith. Their pitching will keep them from competing too much, but they still have a legitimate shot at the division. If I'm right about the Phillies . . .
#4. Pittsburgh Pirates, 62.2 wins (16th)
Hitting/Fielding: -1.20 (15th), Pitching: -1.39 (16th)
Compared to Last Year? Their pitching has taken a big step back; another season in the low 60s is probable.
Pittsburgh's bats are pretty much the same as last year. Pitching-wise, however, they're considerably worse. Salvador Nunez has regressed and their bullpen is pretty weak. It looks like another year of development in Pittsburgh.