2054 PBL Prospectus - AL West
Mar 24, 2020 9:24:29 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, Texas Rangers, and 1 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Mar 24, 2020 9:24:29 GMT -5
AL West
#1. Colorado Rockies, 95.0 wins (3rd)
Batting/Fielding: +0.82 (5th), Pitching: +1.52 (1st)
Compared to Last Year? Better roster, expect improvement.
I hope nobody accuses my sheet of favoritism here; it absolutely called Colorado's relative decline last year. Colorado hasn't really changed the game here; their roster is subtly better everywhere. Their infield saw the loss of Eida but the gain of Fraser Ross and Paul Doss (possibly Boss Hoss); a lateral upgrade but it definitely added depth. In the outfield (their weak spot last season) they added Albert Hernandez and Ramon Gonzales. Not great players, but very good, strong upgrades over their predecessors. Their bullpen is deep and strong, if not top-heavy. But their rotation has gotten better, though they haven't changed anything. Roby's gotten better at age 30 (control up by 1), Garcia's better, Bill Cook's better . . . Don't ask me how a bunch of 30+ starting pitchers actually improved over a year but they did. As things stand Colorado's got the 3rd best playoff rotation in the AL (behind KC and CLE). Like most of the top teams in the AL, it's not that Colorado has super-studs; it's that Colorado has a lot of very good players and is very deep.
#2. Los Angeles Angels, 79.1 wins (8th)
Batting/Fielding: +0.27 (8th), Pitching: -0.69 (11th)
Compared to Last Year? Better roster, but expect a similar result.
Los Angeles is way better than last year. Way better. "But," you may ask, "didn't they finish around 500 last year anyways?" Yeah, they did, but they wildly overperformed. Their WAR was more like a 70-win team. This year finishing around 500 is their average expectation, and they could easily do better.
Let's start off with the bad news. Their pitching is still a little below average. It's not bad anywhere per se, it's just that they don't have any particularly strong players. But compared to last year this is a huge improvement. Last year's #2 starter is about as good as this year's #5. And Steve Brown as improved nicely. Compared to the rest of the AL, it's a below average group. But it's a huge jump from last year.
The good news? They have some very nice young hitters. My sheet thinks they have one of the best young outfields in the AL. And Alec Carras provides solid DHing. It's not a dominant lineup; they still have a few weak spots. But the 8th best in the AL is still a pretty good achievement. This team is young and getting better.
#3. Seattle Mariners, 69.4 wins (11th)
Batting/Fielding: -0.72 (11th), Pitching: -0.26 (9th)
Compared to Last Year? Worse roster, but expect a substantial improvement in record.
Seattle is coming off of a brutal year. Their team was better than they played, and they played better than their record. 58 wins was far below what their roster should have done. So bear with me when I say that my sheet thinks that their roster is worse, but that they should definitely do better than 58 wins. Their pitching got a little better this year, but they took a lot of hits on the hitting side. The loss of Paul Doss and Robert Reid hurts, and Alfie Allen's regression is frustrating given that he's only 27. They still have some strong players, but their roster of talent is pretty shallow at the ML level. Still, an improvement from 58 wins should be pretty easy to do.
#4. Oakland Athletics, 62.9 wins (16th)
Batting/Fielding: -1.26 (15th), Pitching: -0.91 (12th)
Compared to Last Year? Their roster is slightly improved; improvement from 60 wins is certainly expected.
Their rotation is better and deeper than last year, their lineup is about the same. Still a work in progress.
#1. Colorado Rockies, 95.0 wins (3rd)
Batting/Fielding: +0.82 (5th), Pitching: +1.52 (1st)
Compared to Last Year? Better roster, expect improvement.
I hope nobody accuses my sheet of favoritism here; it absolutely called Colorado's relative decline last year. Colorado hasn't really changed the game here; their roster is subtly better everywhere. Their infield saw the loss of Eida but the gain of Fraser Ross and Paul Doss (possibly Boss Hoss); a lateral upgrade but it definitely added depth. In the outfield (their weak spot last season) they added Albert Hernandez and Ramon Gonzales. Not great players, but very good, strong upgrades over their predecessors. Their bullpen is deep and strong, if not top-heavy. But their rotation has gotten better, though they haven't changed anything. Roby's gotten better at age 30 (control up by 1), Garcia's better, Bill Cook's better . . . Don't ask me how a bunch of 30+ starting pitchers actually improved over a year but they did. As things stand Colorado's got the 3rd best playoff rotation in the AL (behind KC and CLE). Like most of the top teams in the AL, it's not that Colorado has super-studs; it's that Colorado has a lot of very good players and is very deep.
#2. Los Angeles Angels, 79.1 wins (8th)
Batting/Fielding: +0.27 (8th), Pitching: -0.69 (11th)
Compared to Last Year? Better roster, but expect a similar result.
Los Angeles is way better than last year. Way better. "But," you may ask, "didn't they finish around 500 last year anyways?" Yeah, they did, but they wildly overperformed. Their WAR was more like a 70-win team. This year finishing around 500 is their average expectation, and they could easily do better.
Let's start off with the bad news. Their pitching is still a little below average. It's not bad anywhere per se, it's just that they don't have any particularly strong players. But compared to last year this is a huge improvement. Last year's #2 starter is about as good as this year's #5. And Steve Brown as improved nicely. Compared to the rest of the AL, it's a below average group. But it's a huge jump from last year.
The good news? They have some very nice young hitters. My sheet thinks they have one of the best young outfields in the AL. And Alec Carras provides solid DHing. It's not a dominant lineup; they still have a few weak spots. But the 8th best in the AL is still a pretty good achievement. This team is young and getting better.
#3. Seattle Mariners, 69.4 wins (11th)
Batting/Fielding: -0.72 (11th), Pitching: -0.26 (9th)
Compared to Last Year? Worse roster, but expect a substantial improvement in record.
Seattle is coming off of a brutal year. Their team was better than they played, and they played better than their record. 58 wins was far below what their roster should have done. So bear with me when I say that my sheet thinks that their roster is worse, but that they should definitely do better than 58 wins. Their pitching got a little better this year, but they took a lot of hits on the hitting side. The loss of Paul Doss and Robert Reid hurts, and Alfie Allen's regression is frustrating given that he's only 27. They still have some strong players, but their roster of talent is pretty shallow at the ML level. Still, an improvement from 58 wins should be pretty easy to do.
#4. Oakland Athletics, 62.9 wins (16th)
Batting/Fielding: -1.26 (15th), Pitching: -0.91 (12th)
Compared to Last Year? Their roster is slightly improved; improvement from 60 wins is certainly expected.
Their rotation is better and deeper than last year, their lineup is about the same. Still a work in progress.