2054 PBL Prospectus - AL Central
Mar 24, 2020 7:03:30 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, NickP_Marlins GM, and 4 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Mar 24, 2020 7:03:30 GMT -5
AL Central
#1. Chicago White Sox, 95.9 wins (2nd)
Batting/Fielding: +1.10 (3rd), Pitching: +0.37 (7th)
Compared to Last Year? Equally good roster, but below 100 wins is probably a more realistic expectation.
Look. Every year it seems, my sheet under-forecasts the White Sox (it's not really true, I've been over at least once). Nevertheless, there is a trend in this direction. What could the cause be? Well, for one, the Sox are built around their park very intelligently, and I think that plays a role. And Craig's obviously a skilled manager, which the sheet can't plan for. Or it could be luck. Either way, last year my sheet put them around this level and they destroyed the forecast. Here we go again.
Chicago's pitching is better. Their bullpen is deeper and the top of their rotation better; they only lack a #5 starter at this point. Their lineup is almost identical to last year in quality. The biggest hit is the fact that Edgar Salazar is wrecked now, which definitely hurts. Either way, this is a pretty good team.
The disgusting thing is how hilariously deep they are. I feel like the White Sox could put together a *second* lineup that would be better than several teams in the league. Yasutake Shimizu? Can't break into that lineup. Listen to these outfielders and their ages: Dave Little (25), Harry Casz (29), Ivan Otero (27), Edgar Salazar (27), Ramiro Hernandez (22), Antonio Barrera (24), Natsume Motsuzuki (22). All of those guys are viable starters at a minimum. And most of them won't even be able to start. Should be another slugfest at the top of the division.
#2. Cleveland Indians, 92.9 wins (5th)
Batting/Fielding: +0.27 (7th), Pitching: +1.41 (2nd)
Compared to Last Year? Similar roster, expect less than 100 wins probably.
Cleveland is another well-run team with a deep pool of talent to draw from. The loss of Bruce Hooper stings a little bit, and Jue's regressing pretty quickly, but their batters are still more than capable and their pitching is as good as anyone's.
#3. Minnesota Twins, 74.1 wins (10th)
Batting/Fielding: -0.18 (10th), Pitching: -0.96 (13th)
Compared to Last Year? A little better than last year; should easily exceed last year's 65 wins.
Minnesota last year was far better than their record. Their pitching is about the same as last year; Solis and Gonzalez are slightly worse but their bullpen is a little deeper. Their lineup is actually pretty decent. They've got some holes, but their infield is strong (led by the still-great Ciaravella) and their outfield is solid. Subtle upbeat story? Ramon Crus. He's 23, and my sheet thinks he's jumped 2+ WAR since last year. His gains: +1 to Contact vL, +1 to Eye, +1 to all Avoid Ks, +1 to Power vL and +2 to Power and Power vR. Now he's 23, plays every infield position well and is a 5/7/6 switch hitter, with potential to be 6/8/8. I don't want to call him the next Ciaravella, but he could be.
#4. Detroit Tigers, 66.3 wins (14th)
Batting/Fielding: -0.93 (12th), Pitching: -1.19 (15th)
Compared to Last Year? They've slightly improved, but last year's 70 wins is probably a reasonable expectation.
Detroit is still developing. Cole Parra and Jotaro Inagaki continue to improve, but Parra's merely at "very good" level and Inagaki's only at All-Star level; last year's performance was impressive but an outlier. They still have a lot to work on but there are upsides.
#1. Chicago White Sox, 95.9 wins (2nd)
Batting/Fielding: +1.10 (3rd), Pitching: +0.37 (7th)
Compared to Last Year? Equally good roster, but below 100 wins is probably a more realistic expectation.
Look. Every year it seems, my sheet under-forecasts the White Sox (it's not really true, I've been over at least once). Nevertheless, there is a trend in this direction. What could the cause be? Well, for one, the Sox are built around their park very intelligently, and I think that plays a role. And Craig's obviously a skilled manager, which the sheet can't plan for. Or it could be luck. Either way, last year my sheet put them around this level and they destroyed the forecast. Here we go again.
Chicago's pitching is better. Their bullpen is deeper and the top of their rotation better; they only lack a #5 starter at this point. Their lineup is almost identical to last year in quality. The biggest hit is the fact that Edgar Salazar is wrecked now, which definitely hurts. Either way, this is a pretty good team.
The disgusting thing is how hilariously deep they are. I feel like the White Sox could put together a *second* lineup that would be better than several teams in the league. Yasutake Shimizu? Can't break into that lineup. Listen to these outfielders and their ages: Dave Little (25), Harry Casz (29), Ivan Otero (27), Edgar Salazar (27), Ramiro Hernandez (22), Antonio Barrera (24), Natsume Motsuzuki (22). All of those guys are viable starters at a minimum. And most of them won't even be able to start. Should be another slugfest at the top of the division.
#2. Cleveland Indians, 92.9 wins (5th)
Batting/Fielding: +0.27 (7th), Pitching: +1.41 (2nd)
Compared to Last Year? Similar roster, expect less than 100 wins probably.
Cleveland is another well-run team with a deep pool of talent to draw from. The loss of Bruce Hooper stings a little bit, and Jue's regressing pretty quickly, but their batters are still more than capable and their pitching is as good as anyone's.
#3. Minnesota Twins, 74.1 wins (10th)
Batting/Fielding: -0.18 (10th), Pitching: -0.96 (13th)
Compared to Last Year? A little better than last year; should easily exceed last year's 65 wins.
Minnesota last year was far better than their record. Their pitching is about the same as last year; Solis and Gonzalez are slightly worse but their bullpen is a little deeper. Their lineup is actually pretty decent. They've got some holes, but their infield is strong (led by the still-great Ciaravella) and their outfield is solid. Subtle upbeat story? Ramon Crus. He's 23, and my sheet thinks he's jumped 2+ WAR since last year. His gains: +1 to Contact vL, +1 to Eye, +1 to all Avoid Ks, +1 to Power vL and +2 to Power and Power vR. Now he's 23, plays every infield position well and is a 5/7/6 switch hitter, with potential to be 6/8/8. I don't want to call him the next Ciaravella, but he could be.
#4. Detroit Tigers, 66.3 wins (14th)
Batting/Fielding: -0.93 (12th), Pitching: -1.19 (15th)
Compared to Last Year? They've slightly improved, but last year's 70 wins is probably a reasonable expectation.
Detroit is still developing. Cole Parra and Jotaro Inagaki continue to improve, but Parra's merely at "very good" level and Inagaki's only at All-Star level; last year's performance was impressive but an outlier. They still have a lot to work on but there are upsides.