2054 PBL Prospectus - AL East
Mar 23, 2020 20:42:05 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, BlueJaysGM_Fin, and 2 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Mar 23, 2020 20:42:05 GMT -5
Standard Disclaimers:
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
4) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
5) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
6) It doesn't take into account manager style, skill or attention to detail. All managers are treated the same. There's no anticipating who will make a move at the trade deadline, or who will stick their head in the sand and tank the year away. Some managers always seem to overperform this sheet. Others seem to underperform it. We'll see what happens this year.
7) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
8) This is counting the entire franchise roster, so minor league players may be counted if my sheet thinks that they're an upgrade.
9) The ratings are standard deviations from the mean, so +0 is league average.
10) And to be clear, when I say a team is better/worse than last year, I'm explicitly comparing them to where they and their players were in spring training of the prior year.
AL East
#1. New York Yankees, 92.2 wins (6th)
Batting/Fielding: +0.89 (4th), Pitching: +0.73 (5th)
Compared to Last Year? Their roster is worse, and we should expect regression.
The Yankees are the obvious bet to win the AL East this year, and they signed Steve Bauer in the offseason. And yet my sheet is (comparatively) down on them. Most of it is the standard stuff that comes with being an older, expensive team. Carl Holmes is a step slower, Jorge Taylor is a step slower, Ramon Gonzales is in Colorado . . . Adding Bauer cancels out the other slowdowns on the offensive side of the ball. But the pitching has regressed as well. Eddie Raymond has regressed to a 7/7/7 pitcher, Kevin Lopez regressed, Albert Fontanez is wrecked. Heck, even Jesse MFing Brown has regressed. Put it all together? The Yankees are still a really good team. And are almost guaranteed for a playoff spot. But I don't know that they're the juggernaut they were last year.
#2. Baltimore Orioles, 68.1 wins (12th)
Batting/Fielding: -0.95 (13th), Pitching: -1.25 (16th)
Compared to Last Year? Honestly, should be about the same.
#3. Boston Red Sox, 68.0 wins (13th)
Batting/Fielding: -1.28 (16th), Pitching: -1.07 (14th)
Compared to Last Year? About the same, but should be better than 60 wins.
#4. Toronto Blue Jays, 64.3 wins (15th)
Batting/Fielding: -1.16 (14th), Pitching: -0.60 (10th)
Compared to Last Year? Their roster is a little worse, but they should do better than 57 wins.
Toronto's better than they look. They have some gaping holes at catcher and DH (though grabbing a spare DH is a challenge), but Cabral is better and Fernando Rodriguez is looking pretty good. They actually have a strong core of hitters; they just lack parts to fill around them. On the pitching front their rotation is better than last year, but their bullpen worse.
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
4) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
5) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
6) It doesn't take into account manager style, skill or attention to detail. All managers are treated the same. There's no anticipating who will make a move at the trade deadline, or who will stick their head in the sand and tank the year away. Some managers always seem to overperform this sheet. Others seem to underperform it. We'll see what happens this year.
7) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
8) This is counting the entire franchise roster, so minor league players may be counted if my sheet thinks that they're an upgrade.
9) The ratings are standard deviations from the mean, so +0 is league average.
10) And to be clear, when I say a team is better/worse than last year, I'm explicitly comparing them to where they and their players were in spring training of the prior year.
AL East
#1. New York Yankees, 92.2 wins (6th)
Batting/Fielding: +0.89 (4th), Pitching: +0.73 (5th)
Compared to Last Year? Their roster is worse, and we should expect regression.
The Yankees are the obvious bet to win the AL East this year, and they signed Steve Bauer in the offseason. And yet my sheet is (comparatively) down on them. Most of it is the standard stuff that comes with being an older, expensive team. Carl Holmes is a step slower, Jorge Taylor is a step slower, Ramon Gonzales is in Colorado . . . Adding Bauer cancels out the other slowdowns on the offensive side of the ball. But the pitching has regressed as well. Eddie Raymond has regressed to a 7/7/7 pitcher, Kevin Lopez regressed, Albert Fontanez is wrecked. Heck, even Jesse MFing Brown has regressed. Put it all together? The Yankees are still a really good team. And are almost guaranteed for a playoff spot. But I don't know that they're the juggernaut they were last year.
#2. Baltimore Orioles, 68.1 wins (12th)
Batting/Fielding: -0.95 (13th), Pitching: -1.25 (16th)
Compared to Last Year? Honestly, should be about the same.
#3. Boston Red Sox, 68.0 wins (13th)
Batting/Fielding: -1.28 (16th), Pitching: -1.07 (14th)
Compared to Last Year? About the same, but should be better than 60 wins.
#4. Toronto Blue Jays, 64.3 wins (15th)
Batting/Fielding: -1.16 (14th), Pitching: -0.60 (10th)
Compared to Last Year? Their roster is a little worse, but they should do better than 57 wins.
Toronto's better than they look. They have some gaping holes at catcher and DH (though grabbing a spare DH is a challenge), but Cabral is better and Fernando Rodriguez is looking pretty good. They actually have a strong core of hitters; they just lack parts to fill around them. On the pitching front their rotation is better than last year, but their bullpen worse.