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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jan 8, 2020 8:30:02 GMT -5
1) Team Quality is built on 15% regression to mean and 85% a blend of to-date WAR and forecast WAR 2) Percents are built on a 5000-iteration Monte Carlo playthrough 3) Numbers listed are Playoff Odds, Bye Odds and Expected Wins
NL East:
PHI: 61.9% / 4.2% / 82.3 NYN: 25.0% / 1.1% / 77.6 PIT: 11.5% / 0.3% / 74.1 MON: 2.6% / --- / 68.1
NL Central:
CIN: 89.2% / 38.2% / 92.3 MIL: 71.7% / 15.3% / 88.4 STL: 21.2% / 1.4% / 79.9 CHN: 5.2% / --- / 74.8
NL West:
SDN: 98.8% / 86.5% / 99.9 SFN: 44.0% / 1.4% / 84.5 LAN: 35.6% / 1.0% / 83.1 ARI: 2.8% / 0.1% / 73.5
NL South:
WAS: 92.1% / 41.6% / 92.4 ATL: 23.9% / 1.8% / 80.9 MIA: 11.0% / 0.6% / 77.7 CAR: 3.8% / --- / 74.5
It still thinks that Carolina's the 2nd best team in the NL South, but with a 1-12 record their odds are pretty bad.
AL East:
NYA: 96.1% / 53.4% / 94.1 TOR: 11.0% / 0.5% / 78.4 BAL: 4.5% / 0.1% / 75.8 BOS: 0.3% / --- / 70.6
AL Central:
CHA: 85.5% / 32.5% / 91.9 CLE: 66.6% / 13.1% / 88.0 MIN: 4.8% / 0.3% / 75.6 DET: 0.4% / --- / 68.5
AL West:
COL: 71.1% / 9.0% / 85.5 SEA: 20.0% / 1.0% / 78.0 LAA: 14.2% / 0.1% / 77.2 OAK: 0.3% / 0.0% / 66.0
AL South:
TEX: 95.1% / 47.5% / 96.4 KCA: 92.1% / 34.3% / 94.8 HOU: 23.6% / 0.8% / 82.3 TBA: 14.6% / 0.4% / 80.7
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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jan 10, 2020 8:15:47 GMT -5
As of Week 4:
AL East:
New York Yankees: 96.1% / 37.5% / 93.2 Toronto Blue Jays: 5.3% / --------- / 76.6 Baltimore Orioles: 3.6% / --------- / 76.6 Boston Red Sox: ------ / ---------- / 65.9
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox: 92.9% / 39.0% / 94.3 Cleveland Indians: 91.4% / 30.1% / 93.4 Minnesota Twins: 1.5% / ----------- / 74.4 Detroit Tigers: 0.1% / --------------- / 69.5
AL West:
Colorado Rockies: 36.8% / 0.7% / 79.5 Los Angeles Angels: 33.2% / 0.5% / 79.3 Seattle Mariners: 27.1% / 0.8% / 78.9 Oakland Athletics: 0.2% / ------ / 64.7
AL South:
Texas Rangers: 96.6% / 43.8% / 97.4 Kansas City Royals: 96.2% / 41.5% / 97.1 Houston Astros: 10.2% / -------- / 79.8 Tampa Bay Rays: 9.1% / --------- / 80.5
A Moment of Silence For: The Boston Red Sox, the first team in the AL to not have made the playoffs in 5000 sims. Of Note: The Colorado Rockies, despite being 8 games down in their division are still the favorite to win the AL West. But it's definitely tighter there than anyone would have guessed.
NL East:
New York Mets: 54.4% / 3.3% / 83.1 Philadelphia Phillies: 51.2% / 4.0% / 83.3 Montreal Expos: 0.6% / ------- / 67.8 Pittsburgh Pirates: 0.3% / ------ / 66.4
NL Central:
Cincinnati Reds: 91.2% / 51.3% / 93.6 Milwaukee Brewers: 54.8% / 10.1% / 86.6 St. Louis Cardinals: 27.9% / 2.8% / 82.3 Chicago Cubs: 17.6% / 1.6% / 80.3
NL West:
San Diego Padres: 99.5% / 93.8% / 101.3 Los Angeles Dodgers: 42.1% / 1.0% / 84.8 San Francisco Giants: 10.7% / ------ / 78.5 Arizona Diamondbacks: 0.2% / ------ / 70.2
NL South:
Washington Nationals: 73.0% / 16.5% / 88.4 Miami Marlins: 41.2% / 4.6% / 83.3 Atlanta Braves: 31.5% / 3.7% / 82.9 Carolina Warhounds: 3.2% / ----- / 73.6
Of Note: All four teams in the NL Central are forecast now to finish above 80 wins. And while we're at it, 11 of the 16 teams in the NL are forecast to finish above 80 wins. Which makes the prospective playoff picture very complicated.
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Post by BlueJaysGM_Fin on Jan 10, 2020 10:17:13 GMT -5
Fixed it for ya, John!
Of Note: All four teams in the NL Central are forecast now to finish above 80 wins. And while we're at it, 11 of the 16 teams in the NL are forecast to finish above 80 wins. Which makes the prospective playoff picture very complicated exciting!
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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jan 10, 2020 10:46:59 GMT -5
Fixed it for ya, John! Of Note: All four teams in the NL Central are forecast now to finish above 80 wins. And while we're at it, 11 of the 16 teams in the NL are forecast to finish above 80 wins. Which makes the prospective playoff picture very complicated exciting!Yeah, unless you're the Reds or Padres, nobody should be feeling safe right now about their playoff shot. When you have two teams forecast in the 90s and *nine* other teams projected between 80.3 and 88.4 wins . . . Just about anything could happen.
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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jan 14, 2020 9:05:45 GMT -5
As of 5/19/53: AL East | Playoff% | Bye% | Exp. Wins | Playoff Delta | WAR Rating | NYA | 99.8% | 61.5% | 99.1 | +3.7% | +1.71 | BAL | 2.5% |
| 76.3 | -1.1% | -0.22 | TOR | 0.3% |
| 71.2 | -5.0% | -0.77 | BOS | 0.1% |
| 66.8 | +0.1% | -1.57
| AL Central
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| | | | | CLE | 96.5% | 30.3% | 96.0 | +5.1% | +1.23 | CHA | 96.3% | 25.8% | 95.4 | +3.4% | +1.64 | MIN | 0.2% |
| 72.5 | -1.3% | -0.90 | DET | 0.2% |
| 70.6 | +0.1% | -0.81 | AL West |
| | | | | COL | 57.9% | 0.2% | 79.3 | +21.1% | -0.04 | LAA | 27.2% |
| 76.3 | -6.0% | -0.55 | SEA | 8.4% |
| 71.5 | -18.7% | -1.18 | OAK | 1.2% |
| 66.4 | +1.0% | -1.48 | AL South |
| | | | | TEX | 99.1% | 45.8% | 99.1 | +2.5% | +1.17 | KCA | 98.3% | 29.1% | 97.6 | +2.1% | +1.25 | TBA | 10.3% | 0.1% | 80.9 | +1.2% | +0.04 | HOU | 1.5% |
| 74.8 | -8.7% | -0.87
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Playoff Picture: 1) Texas Rangers, 2) New York Yankees, 3) Cleveland Indians, 4) Colorado Rockies, 5) Kansas City Royals, 6) Chicago White Sox Bubble Teams: Los Angeles Angels, Tampa Bay Rays NL East | Playoff% | Bye% | Exp. Wins | Playoff Delta | WAR Rating | PHI | 81.1% | 7.3% | 87.9 | +29.9% | +1.13 | NYN | 28.6% | 0.9% | 81.7 | -25.8% | +0.48 | MON | 0.3% |
| 68.8 | -0.3% | -1.11 | PIT | 0.2% |
| 64.9 | -0.1% | -1.27 | NL Central |
| | | | | CIN | 97.0% | 61.0% | 96.2 | +5.8% | +0.95 | MIL | 83.5% | 20.6% | 91.5 | +28.7% | +0.70 | STL | 14.1% | 0.4% | 80.6 | -13.8% | -0.10 | CHN | 0.6% |
| 72.1 | -17.0% | -0.61 | NL West |
| | | | | SDN | 99.9% | 96.3% | 104.0 | +0.4% | +1.90 | LAN | 52.7% | 0.9% | 86.6 | +10.6% | +0.58 | SFN | 25.6% |
| 83.0 | +14.9% | +0.71 | ARI | 0.2% |
| 69.7 |
| -0.31 | NL South |
| | | | | WAS | 71.6% | 6.7% | 87.0 | -1.4% | -0.59 | MIA | 31.4% | 1.3% | 82.4 | -9.8% | -0.06 | ATL | 11.3% | 0.2% | 78.5 | -20.2% | -0.20 | CAR | 1.9% | 0.1% | 73.4 | -1.3% | -0.86 |
Playoff Picture: 1) San Diego Padres, 2) Cincinnati Reds, 3) Philadelphia Phillies, 4) Washington Nationals, 5) Milwaukee Brewers, 6) Los Angeles Dodgers Bubble Teams: Miami Marlins, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves
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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jan 17, 2020 8:39:08 GMT -5
Pressed for time, so just doing Playoff%, Playoff Delta and Exp. Wins
Current as of 6/2/53:
AL East:
New York Yankees: 99.9% / +0.1% / 101.3 Baltimore Orioles: 3.3% / +0.8% / 78.1 Toronto Blue Jays: ------ / -0.3% / 68.3 Boston Red Sox: ------- / -0.1% / 66.2
AL Central:
Cleveland Indians: 99.4% / +2.9% / 97.7 Chicago White Sox: 98.9% / +2.6% / 97.4 Minnesota Twins: 0.4% / +0.2% / 72.5 Detroit Tigers: ---------- / -0.2% / 67.1
AL West:
Colorado Rockies: 65.9% / +8.0% / 79.5 Los Angeles Angels: 19.2% / -8.0% / 73.8 Seattle Mariners: 9.3% / +0.9% / 72.2 Oakland Athletics: 0.8% / -0.4% / 65.5
AL South:
Kansas City Royals: 99.8% / +1.5% / 101.4 Texas Rangers: 99.4% / +0.3% / 98.7 Tampa Bay Rays: 3.6% / -6.7% / 79.2 Houston Astros: ----- / -1.5% / 68.9
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies: 95.3% / +14.0% / 91.1 New York Mets: 13.6% / -15.0% / 78.7 Montreal Expos: ------ / -0.3% / 65.4 Pittsburgh Pirates: ---- / -0.2% / 65.2
NL Central:
Cincinnati Reds: 99.6% / +2.6% / 99.6 Milwaukee Brewers: 58.4% / -25.1% / 86.6 St. Louis Cardinals: 5.5% / -8.6% / 76.6 Chicago Cubs: 0.1% / -0.5% / 71.7
NL West:
San Diego Padres: 100.0% / +0.1% / 105.0 Los Angeles Dodgers: 77.9% / +25.2% / 89.8 San Francisco Giants: 33.0% / +7.4% / 83.3 Arizona Diamondbacks: ----- / -0.2% / 69.2
NL South:
Washington Nationals: 49.8% / -21.8% / 84.1 Miami Marlins: 47.1% / +15.6% / 84.1 Atlanta Braves: 19.2% / +7.9% / 79.6 Carolina Warhounds: 1.8% / -1.2% / 72.8
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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jan 23, 2020 8:28:17 GMT -5
Pressed for time, so just doing Playoff%, Playoff Delta and Exp. Wins
Current as of 6/23/53:
AL East:
New York Yankees: 100% / +0.1% / 105.2 Baltimore Orioles: 0.9% / -2.4% / 75.2 Boston Red Sox: 0.2% / +0.2% / 69.1 Toronto Blue Jays: ---- / ----- / 64.6
AL Central:
Cleveland Indians: 99.7% / +0.3% / 98.0 Chicago White Sox: 99.3% / +0.4% / 95.0 Minnesota Twins: 1.5% / +1.1% / 76.2 Detroit Tigers: ---- / ------------ / 63.1
AL West:
Colorado Rockies: 65.4% / -0.6% / 78.6 Los Angeles Angels: 24.7% / +5.5% / 74.5 Seattle Mariners: 5.9% / -3.3% / 70.9 Oakland Athletics: 0.1% / -0.7% / 63.6
AL South:
Texas Rangers: 99.8% / +0.4% / 100.8 Kansas City Royals: 100% / +0.2% / 98.6 Tampa Bay Rays: 2.3% / -1.3% / 77.7 Houston Astros: 0.1% / +0.1% / 66.9
Bye Odds:
New York Yankees 87.8%, Texas Rangers 43.7%, Cleveland Indians 26.7%, Kansas City Royals 24.0%, Chicago White Sox 10.7%
Playoff Picture:
Byes: New York Yankees, Texas Rangers Div Winners: Cleveland Indians, Colorado Rockies Wild Cards: Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox Bubble Teams: Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies: 99.7% / +4.7% / 94.7 New York Mets: 4.0% / -9.6% / 77.3 Montreal Expos: ------ / ------- / 65.7 Pittsburgh Pirates: ------- / ------ / 61.8
NL Central:
Cincinnati Reds: 99.4% / -0.2% / 99.1 Milwaukee Brewers: 51.6% / -6.8% / 86.1 St. Louis Cardinals: 0.4% / -5.1% / 73.6 Chicago Cubs: 0.1% / ---- / 71.2
NL West:
San Diego Padres: 100% / ----- / 106.9 Los Angeles Dodgers: 90.7% / +12.8% / 92.6 San Francisco Giants: 34.6% / +1.6% / 84.2 Arizona Diamondbacks: 0.4% / +0.4% / 72.6
NL South:
Miami Marlins: 78.5% / +31.5% / 88.2 Washington Nationals: 21.3% / -28.7% / 81.9 Atlanta Braves: 17.7% / -1.6% / 80.6 Carolina Warhounds: 2.1% / +1.5% / 75.9
Bye Odds:
San Diego Padres 97.1%, Cincinnati Reds 68.4%, Philadelphia Phillies 23.2%
Playoff Picture:
Bye Teams: San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds Division Winners: Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins Wild Card Teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers Bubble Teams: San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, Carolina Warhounds
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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jan 31, 2020 9:27:08 GMT -5
As of 7/21/53, once again, playoff %, playoff delta (change) and expected wins:
AL East:
New York Yankees: 100% / ---- / 105.9 Baltimore Orioles: ----- / ----- / 73.7 Boston Red Sox: ----- / ------- / 67.3 Toronto Blue Jays: ------ / ----- / 60.2
AL Central:
Cleveland Indians: 100% / +0.3% / 102.3 Chicago White Sox: 100% / +0.7% / 99.8 Minnesota Twins: ---- / ----- / 74.9 Detroit Tigers: ----- / -------- / 62.9
AL West:
Colorado Rockies: 86.5% / +21.2% / 82.1 Los Angeles Angels: 11.2% / -13.6% / 74.9 Seattle Mariners: 0.1% / -5.8% / 66.4 Oakland Athletics: ------- / -0.1% / 61.1
AL South:
Texas Rangers: 100% / +0.2% / 102.0 Kansas City Royals: 100% / ----- / 98.3 Tampa Bay Rays: ------ / -2.3% / 77.1 Houston Astros: ------- / -0.1% / 67.0
Bye Picture:
New York Yankees: 82.1%, Cleveland Indians 41.1%, Texas Rangers 39.3%, Chicago White Sox 16.1%, Kansas City Royals 8.5%
Playoff Picture:
Byes: New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians Division Winners: Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies Wild Card Teams: Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals Bubble Teams: Los Angeles Angels
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies: 99.7% / +0.9% / 94.7 New York Mets: 1.4% / -3.1% / 77.9 Montreal Expos: ----- / ------- / 63.7 Pittsburgh Pirates: ------ / ------- / 62.9
NL Central:
Cincinnati Reds: 100% / +0.7% / 103.1 Milwaukee Brewers: 53.3% / +2.5% / 88.2 St. Louis Cardinals: 1.3% / +0.7% / 77.0 Chicago Cubs: ------ / --------- / 65.4
NL West:
San Diego Padres: 100% / ----- / 106.5 Los Angeles Dodgers: 90.8% / +0.5% / 93.3 San Francisco Giants: 17.8% / -16.1% / 83.4 Arizona Diamondbacks: ---- / -0.4% / 71.2
NL South:
Miami Marlins: 90.6% / +11.0% / 91.9 Washington Nationals: 38.0% / +17.0% / 86.7 Atlanta Braves: 6.6% / -10.6% / 81.0 Carolina Warhounds: -0.1% / -1.7% / 74.8
Bye Picture:
San Diego Padres 96.7%, Cincinnati Reds 90.7%, Philadelphia Phillies 6.2%, Miami Marlins 2.6%
Playoff Picture:
Byes: San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds Division Winners: Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins Wild Card Teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers Bubble Teams: Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals
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Post by MetDaMeats on Jan 31, 2020 16:44:26 GMT -5
Imagine how much the sheet would like my chances if I had ever once led in this division this year!
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