Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Dec 29, 2019 16:30:51 GMT -5
Standard Disclaimers:
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
4) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
5) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
6) It doesn't take into account manager style, skill or attention to detail. All managers are treated the same. There's no anticipating who will make a move at the trade deadline, or who will stick their head in the sand and tank the year away. Some managers always seem to overperform this sheet. Others seem to underperform it. We'll see what happens this year.
7) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
8) This is counting the entire franchise roster, so minor league players may be counted if my sheet thinks that they're an upgrade.
NL East (-7.5 on average):
Philadelphia Phillies: 76.0 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates: 73.8 wins
New York Mets: 73.3 wins
Montreal Expos: 70.9 wins
NL Central (+3.3 on average):
Cincinnati Reds: 89.6 wins
Milwaukee Brewers: 88.5 wins
St. Louis Cardinals: 84.3 wins
Chicago Cubs: 74.6 wins
NL West (+2.8 on average):
San Diego Padres: 97.2 wins
Los Angeles Dodgers: 85.6 wins
San Francisco Giants: 81.9 wins
Arizona Diamondbacks: 70.4 wins
NL South (+1.6 on average):
Washington Nationals: 95.4 wins
Carolina Warhounds: 81.1 wins
Miami Marlins: 79.5 wins
Atlanta Braves: 74.2 wins
Playoff Picture:
Byes: San Diego Padres, Washington Nationals
Division Winners: Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies
Wild Card Teams: Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers
Bubble Teams: St. Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants, Carolina Warhounds
I think that the most interesting story of the 2053 season is the sudden lack of tanking teams. Last year we couldn't swing a bat without hitting five tanking teams. Suddenly everyone's actually trying. Don't look now but no NL teams are forecast below 70 wins (in fact, only two teams in the PBL are forecast below 70 total, which is really impressive, at least compared to last year). A lot of the top teams dropped in forecasted record, not because they got worse but because all the bad teams got better.
In fact, here's the change in forecast from 2052 to 2053 (which signifies the difference in how good my sheet thinks the teams are):
Top 10 Risers:
1. Chicago Cubs, +17.6 wins
2. Los Angeles Angels, +10.0 wins
3. Detroit Tigers, +8.4 wins
4. San Francisco Giants, +7.9 wins
5. Miami Marlins, +7.5 wins
6. Minnesota Twins, +6.5 wins
7. Los Angeles Dodgers, +4.6 wins
8. Kansas City Royals, +3.9 wins
9. Tampa Bay Rays, +3.4 wins
10. Atlanta Braves, +3.2 wins
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
4) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
5) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
6) It doesn't take into account manager style, skill or attention to detail. All managers are treated the same. There's no anticipating who will make a move at the trade deadline, or who will stick their head in the sand and tank the year away. Some managers always seem to overperform this sheet. Others seem to underperform it. We'll see what happens this year.
7) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
8) This is counting the entire franchise roster, so minor league players may be counted if my sheet thinks that they're an upgrade.
NL East (-7.5 on average):
Philadelphia Phillies: 76.0 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates: 73.8 wins
New York Mets: 73.3 wins
Montreal Expos: 70.9 wins
NL Central (+3.3 on average):
Cincinnati Reds: 89.6 wins
Milwaukee Brewers: 88.5 wins
St. Louis Cardinals: 84.3 wins
Chicago Cubs: 74.6 wins
NL West (+2.8 on average):
San Diego Padres: 97.2 wins
Los Angeles Dodgers: 85.6 wins
San Francisco Giants: 81.9 wins
Arizona Diamondbacks: 70.4 wins
NL South (+1.6 on average):
Washington Nationals: 95.4 wins
Carolina Warhounds: 81.1 wins
Miami Marlins: 79.5 wins
Atlanta Braves: 74.2 wins
Playoff Picture:
Byes: San Diego Padres, Washington Nationals
Division Winners: Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies
Wild Card Teams: Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers
Bubble Teams: St. Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants, Carolina Warhounds
I think that the most interesting story of the 2053 season is the sudden lack of tanking teams. Last year we couldn't swing a bat without hitting five tanking teams. Suddenly everyone's actually trying. Don't look now but no NL teams are forecast below 70 wins (in fact, only two teams in the PBL are forecast below 70 total, which is really impressive, at least compared to last year). A lot of the top teams dropped in forecasted record, not because they got worse but because all the bad teams got better.
In fact, here's the change in forecast from 2052 to 2053 (which signifies the difference in how good my sheet thinks the teams are):
Top 10 Risers:
1. Chicago Cubs, +17.6 wins
2. Los Angeles Angels, +10.0 wins
3. Detroit Tigers, +8.4 wins
4. San Francisco Giants, +7.9 wins
5. Miami Marlins, +7.5 wins
6. Minnesota Twins, +6.5 wins
7. Los Angeles Dodgers, +4.6 wins
8. Kansas City Royals, +3.9 wins
9. Tampa Bay Rays, +3.4 wins
10. Atlanta Braves, +3.2 wins