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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Oct 16, 2019 9:59:05 GMT -5
This is built on a Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining games in the season; team quality is built off preseason forecast and team WAR so far (as the season goes on the latter is weighted more heavily).
AL East:
NYA: 98.1 wins, 98.9% playoffs, 63.9% bye TOR: 81.3 wins, 11.9% playoffs, 0.1% bye BAL: 78.9 wins, 4.6% playoffs, 0.1% bye BOS: 64.6 wins
AL Central:
CLE: 94.0 wins, 89.7% playoffs, 29.1% bye CHA: 86.4 wins, 38.5% playoffs, 3.6% bye DET: 68.0 wins MIN: 66.9 wins
AL West:
COL: 91.7 wins, 94.2% playoffs, 18.9% bye SEA: 78.6 wins, 6.7% playoffs, 0.1% bye OAK: 76.3 wins, 3.2% playoffs LAA: 63.9 wins
AL South:
TEX: 97.4 wins, 94.9% playoffs, 51.1% bye HOU: 91.8 wins, 80.7% playoffs, 12.0% bye KCA: 90.8 wins, 74.0% playoffs, 8.9% bye TBA: 78.0 wins, 2.9% playoffs
NL East:
PHI: 77.9 wins, 60.7% playoffs, 0.1% bye PIT: 72.5 wins, 16.6% playoffs NYN: 70.7 wins, 12.0% playoffs MON: 68.2 wins, 4.7% playoffs
NL Central:
STL: 102.6 wins, 99.3% playoffs, 60.3% bye MIL: 95.3 wins, 90.8% playoffs, 10.4% bye CIN: 95.0 wins, 88.7% playoffs, 9.5% bye CHN: 52.4 wins
NL West:
SDN: 102.6 wins, 99.4% playoffs, 75.0% bye LAN: 83.0 wins, 9.3% playoffs, 0.3% bye ARI: 77.0 wins, 1.5% playoffs SFN: 75.1 wins, 0.8% playoffs
NL South:
WAS: 97.9 wins, 96.8% playoffs, 38.8% bye CAR: 85.1 wins, 18.8% playoffs, 0.3% bye ATL: 73.7 wins, 0.3% playoffs MIA: 71.2 wins
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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Oct 29, 2019 11:00:44 GMT -5
At this point the forecast is built on schedule going forward, and team quality is 15% league average (regression to the mean), 37.5% my preseason projection for each team and 37.5% the team's WAR to-date.
Current as of 7/01/52:
AL East:
New York Yankees: 99.2 wins, 99.7% playoffs, 66.6% bye Baltimore Orioles: 81.9 wins, 1.1% playoffs Toronto Blue Jays: 77.2 wins, 0.2% playoffs Boston Red Sox: 62.5 wins
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox: 95.0 wins, 76.3% playoffs, 24.5% bye Cleveland Indians: 93.6 wins, 66.8% playoffs, 15.7% bye Detroit Tigers: 70.4 wins Minnesota Twins: 64.0 wins
AL West:
Colorado Rockies: 92.7 wins, 99.5% playoffs, 11.5% bye Seattle Mariners: 76.0 wins, 0.3% playoffs Oakland Athletics: 70.3 wins Los Angeles Angels: 62.5 wins
AL South:
Kansas City Royals: 97.2 wins, 89.0% playoffs, 28.7% bye Houston Astros: 96.4 wins, 87.4% playoffs, 25.4% bye Texas Rangers: 94.8 wins, 78.2% playoffs, 14.3% bye Tampa Bay Rays: 72.9 wins
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies: 86.0 wins, 99.9% playoffs, 0.2% bye Pittsburgh Pirates: 68.8 wins, 0.1% playoffs New York Mets: 67.8 wins Montreal Expos: 67.5 wins
NL Central:
St. Louis Cardinals: 105.4 wins, 100% playoffs, 91.3% bye Cincinnati Reds: 95.2 wins, 97.1% playoffs, 4.4% bye Milwaukee Brewers: 89.2 wins, 69.8% playoffs, 0.2% bye Chicago Cubs: 50.7 wins
NL West:
San Diego Padres: 105.7 wins, 100% playoffs, 97.3% bye Los Angeles Dodgers: 81.3 wins, 8.6% playoffs Arizona Diamondbacks: 75.4 wins, 0.7% playoffs San Francisco Giants: 72.7 wins, 0.2% playoffs
NL South:
Washington Nationals: 93.4 wins, 92.8% playoffs, 4.4% bye Carolina Warhounds: 85.3 wins, 30.3% playoffs, 0.1% bye Atlanta Braves: 74.0 wins, 0.1% playoffs Miami Marlins: 71.8 wins, 0.1% playoffs
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