2052 Forecast - NL Edition
Oct 1, 2019 20:37:32 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, Texas Rangers, and 7 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Oct 1, 2019 20:37:32 GMT -5
Standard Disclaimers:
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) It's not considering the idea that a team might be keeping someone ML-ready in the minors. The best players in the organization are assumed to be at the ML level.
4) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
5) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
6) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
7) It doesn't take into account manager style, skill or attention to detail. All managers are treated the same. There's no anticipating who will make a move at the trade deadline, or who will stick their head in the sand and tank the year away. Some managers always seem to overperform this sheet. Others seem to underperform it. We'll see what happens this year.
8) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
9) This is only counting teams' 40-man roster. If a player isn't on a 40-man, he isn't counted.
NL East: 18.2 wins below average
Pittsburgh: The Pirates have been a 500 team for a few years. They had a down year last year, but my sheet still thinks they have every chance of finishing with a winning record.
Philadelphia: The Phillies finally broke through with an 89-win performance that decisively won the division and made the playoffs. My sheet isn't too impressed, still considering the Phillies about an average team. Of course, it thought that last year.
Montreal: Montreal had a bit of a down year last year but my sheet still sees them within striking distance of 500 and, in this division, with a shot at the playoffs.
New York: The Mets suffered an aberrantly down 2050 after several years of excellence. In 2051 they struggled early and initiated a rebuild, blowing everything up for prospects. This year the Mets don't look to have a particularly good team, but again, this division is anyone's game.
NL Central: 15 wins above average
St. Louis: The Cardinals have won 94 games each of the last two years. This year my sheet thinks that they're even better, going so far as to pick them as the second best team in the NL this year. The ascendance of Kip Blue is a big part of that prediction.
Cincinnati: The Reds have finished with 89 wins each of the last two years. They're like a metronome of quality; with heavy mashers on offense and just enough solid pitching plus role-players in the middle infield to put up about 90 wins a year. This year they're pegged to finish a little higher.
Milwaukee: The Brewers are forecast to win 92 games this year, which I have a hard time taking seriously. That said, they have the youngest batters in the league and have brought up a lot of quality AAA players. Oh, also last year their pitchers combined for negative WAR and this year their pitchers look far better. 92 wins may be pushing it, but this sure looks like an above average team.
Chicago: The Cubs looks like a team that doesn't have a GM. Little things like having a catcher on the roster would go a long way.
NL West: 6.3 wins above average
San Diego: Uhhh, I don't know, they're pretty good. Two straight years forecast above 100 wins, two straight years putting up 100 wins. They're clearly in a class by themselves right now. I mean, they're not 114-wins good, but they're really good and still the team to beat.
Los Angeles: In 2051 my sheet thought that the Dodgers had regressed a little, down to the mid 80s. So of course they go and win 97 games. The question is exactly how real those 97 wins were. The sheet thinks that the Dodgers regressed again, but it's tough to bet against a team that just scraped near 100 wins.
San Francisco: More of the same, the Giants treading water while they build up a sufficiency of prospects to make another push to the top of the division.
Arizona: Only three seasons removed from a 100+ win season, the Diamondbacks have slowly blown up their roster to rebuild. My sheet thinks that their 68-win season last year was a bit of a fluke.
NL South: 2.7 wins below average
Washington: What do you say about the team that has everything? Washington's just as dangerous as any other year, but as the Cardinals get better and better, the competition for the byes in the NL could be a bloodbath.
Carolina: What a meteoric rise. In 2050 they win 64. My sheet going into 2051 pegs them as ten wins better (a massive improvement for one year). Instead they win a whopping 90 games and fight all the way into the NLCS. This year my sheet thinks that they're 8 wins better than the year before. They're unquestionably better; Carolina has one of the best young rosters in the PBL. My sheet thinks that last year was a massive overperformance, but my sheet's been wrong before.
Miami: Last year I peg Miami for 68 wins, they win 51. My sheet thinks they've improved their roster by 4 wins. Just don't be surprised if they break 70 this year.
Atlanta: Atlanta's rebuild continues slowly but steady.
Playoff Picture:
Bye Teams: San Diego 102-60, St. Louis 98-64
Division Winners: Washington 96-66, Pittsburgh 80-82
WildCard Teams: Cincinnati 92-70, Milwaukee 92-70
First Teams Out: Carolina 82-80, Los Angeles 81-81, Philadelphia 79-83
My sheet thinks that the playoff picture is pretty much set already, that there are only six above average teams in the NL this year. Of course, it's discounting two teams that had 90+ wins last year, and it's counting on a team making an 18 win jump in one season. And, of course, that team is built by the spreadsheet that's making the prediction, so there's a serious bias there. Last time I forecast the Brewers above 80 wins (88) I won 77 games.
Guess we'll just have to play this sucker out
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) It's not considering the idea that a team might be keeping someone ML-ready in the minors. The best players in the organization are assumed to be at the ML level.
4) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
5) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
6) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
7) It doesn't take into account manager style, skill or attention to detail. All managers are treated the same. There's no anticipating who will make a move at the trade deadline, or who will stick their head in the sand and tank the year away. Some managers always seem to overperform this sheet. Others seem to underperform it. We'll see what happens this year.
8) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
9) This is only counting teams' 40-man roster. If a player isn't on a 40-man, he isn't counted.
NL East: 18.2 wins below average
2050 Record | 2051 Forecast | 2051 Record | 2052 Forecast | |
Pittsburgh | 84-78 | 79-83 | 73-89 | 80-82 |
Philadelphia . | 76-86 | 80-82 | 89-73 | 79-83 |
Montreal | 85-77 | 80-82 | 76-86 | 73-89 |
New York | 81-81 | 86-76 | 77-85 | 73-89 |
Pittsburgh: The Pirates have been a 500 team for a few years. They had a down year last year, but my sheet still thinks they have every chance of finishing with a winning record.
Philadelphia: The Phillies finally broke through with an 89-win performance that decisively won the division and made the playoffs. My sheet isn't too impressed, still considering the Phillies about an average team. Of course, it thought that last year.
Montreal: Montreal had a bit of a down year last year but my sheet still sees them within striking distance of 500 and, in this division, with a shot at the playoffs.
New York: The Mets suffered an aberrantly down 2050 after several years of excellence. In 2051 they struggled early and initiated a rebuild, blowing everything up for prospects. This year the Mets don't look to have a particularly good team, but again, this division is anyone's game.
NL Central: 15 wins above average
2050 Record | 2051 Forecast | 2051 Record | 2052 Forecast | |
St. Louis | 94-68 | 93-69 | 94-68 | 98-64 |
Cincinnati | 89-73 | 90-72 | 89-73 | 92-70 |
Milwaukee | 77-85 | 73-89 | 74-88 | 92-70 |
Chicago | 74-88 | 72-90 | 62-100 | 57-105 |
St. Louis: The Cardinals have won 94 games each of the last two years. This year my sheet thinks that they're even better, going so far as to pick them as the second best team in the NL this year. The ascendance of Kip Blue is a big part of that prediction.
Cincinnati: The Reds have finished with 89 wins each of the last two years. They're like a metronome of quality; with heavy mashers on offense and just enough solid pitching plus role-players in the middle infield to put up about 90 wins a year. This year they're pegged to finish a little higher.
Milwaukee: The Brewers are forecast to win 92 games this year, which I have a hard time taking seriously. That said, they have the youngest batters in the league and have brought up a lot of quality AAA players. Oh, also last year their pitchers combined for negative WAR and this year their pitchers look far better. 92 wins may be pushing it, but this sure looks like an above average team.
Chicago: The Cubs looks like a team that doesn't have a GM. Little things like having a catcher on the roster would go a long way.
NL West: 6.3 wins above average
2050 Record | 2051 Forecast | 2051 Record | 2052 Forecast | |
San Diego | 107-55 | 101-61 | 114-48 | 102-60 |
Los Angeles | 89-73 | 84-78 | 97-65 | 81-81 |
San Francisco | 78-84 | 74-88 | 75-87 | 74-88 |
Arizona | 85-77 | 72-90 | 68-94 | 74-88 |
San Diego: Uhhh, I don't know, they're pretty good. Two straight years forecast above 100 wins, two straight years putting up 100 wins. They're clearly in a class by themselves right now. I mean, they're not 114-wins good, but they're really good and still the team to beat.
Los Angeles: In 2051 my sheet thought that the Dodgers had regressed a little, down to the mid 80s. So of course they go and win 97 games. The question is exactly how real those 97 wins were. The sheet thinks that the Dodgers regressed again, but it's tough to bet against a team that just scraped near 100 wins.
San Francisco: More of the same, the Giants treading water while they build up a sufficiency of prospects to make another push to the top of the division.
Arizona: Only three seasons removed from a 100+ win season, the Diamondbacks have slowly blown up their roster to rebuild. My sheet thinks that their 68-win season last year was a bit of a fluke.
NL South: 2.7 wins below average
2050 Record | 2051 Forecast | 2051 Record | 2052 Forecast | |
Washington | 99-63 | 97-65 | 102-60 | 96-66 |
Carolina | 64-98 | 74-88 | 90-72 | 82-80 |
Miami | 53-109 | 68-94 | 51-111 | 72-90 |
Atlanta | 64-98 | 73-89 | 65-97 | 71-91 |
Washington: What do you say about the team that has everything? Washington's just as dangerous as any other year, but as the Cardinals get better and better, the competition for the byes in the NL could be a bloodbath.
Carolina: What a meteoric rise. In 2050 they win 64. My sheet going into 2051 pegs them as ten wins better (a massive improvement for one year). Instead they win a whopping 90 games and fight all the way into the NLCS. This year my sheet thinks that they're 8 wins better than the year before. They're unquestionably better; Carolina has one of the best young rosters in the PBL. My sheet thinks that last year was a massive overperformance, but my sheet's been wrong before.
Miami: Last year I peg Miami for 68 wins, they win 51. My sheet thinks they've improved their roster by 4 wins. Just don't be surprised if they break 70 this year.
Atlanta: Atlanta's rebuild continues slowly but steady.
Playoff Picture:
Bye Teams: San Diego 102-60, St. Louis 98-64
Division Winners: Washington 96-66, Pittsburgh 80-82
WildCard Teams: Cincinnati 92-70, Milwaukee 92-70
First Teams Out: Carolina 82-80, Los Angeles 81-81, Philadelphia 79-83
My sheet thinks that the playoff picture is pretty much set already, that there are only six above average teams in the NL this year. Of course, it's discounting two teams that had 90+ wins last year, and it's counting on a team making an 18 win jump in one season. And, of course, that team is built by the spreadsheet that's making the prediction, so there's a serious bias there. Last time I forecast the Brewers above 80 wins (88) I won 77 games.
Guess we'll just have to play this sucker out