2052 Forecast - AL Edition
Sept 30, 2019 19:58:27 GMT -5
Texas Rangers, Commish_Ron, and 4 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Sept 30, 2019 19:58:27 GMT -5
Standard Disclaimers:
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) It's not considering the idea that a team might be keeping someone ML-ready in the minors. The best players in the organization are assumed to be at the ML level.
4) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
5) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
6) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
7) It doesn't take into account manager style, skill or attention to detail. All managers are treated the same. There's no anticipating who will make a move at the trade deadline, or who will stick their head in the sand and tank the year away. Some managers always seem to overperform this sheet. Others seem to underperform it. We'll see what happens this year.
8) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
9) This is only counting teams' 40-man roster. If a player isn't on a 40-man, he isn't counted.
AL East: 3.1 wins below average
NYA: My sheet thought that the Yankees were very good last year, if not 100 wins. This year it thinks that they're even better than last year, the team to beat in the AL.
TOR: My sheet is perpetually a believer in Toronto and always seems to peg them too high. It thinks that they're exactly as good as last year, but that didn't exactly work out then. That said, I used to think that Montreal chronically underperformed my sheet until they won the NL East. So if Toronto wins 88 games, don't be too surprised. They have a solid rotation and several nice hitters.
BAL: My sheet thinks that Baltimore is almost exactly as good as last year. Unfortunately, it thinks that they're a below average team. Last year that prediction didn't turn out so well, as they won 92 games. We'll see how it goes this year.
BOS: My sheet called Boston perfectly last year and it thinks that they're about the same this year. Nobody said that rebuilding was a fast or easy process.
AL Central: 16.5 wins below average
Chicago: What can you say about a team with four All-Star capable shortstops? My sheet called the White Sox perfectly last year and this year it thinks they've regressed a little. Definitely still playoff-quality but in this year's AL anything can happen.
Cleveland: My sheet thought that Cleveland would be average last year; it was completely unprepared for the 100-win domination that the Indians unleashed. The sheet certainly doesn't think that Cleveland is a 100-win team, but that it's ten wins better than last year. Take that for whatever it's worth. Looks like another tight round of Chicago vs. Cleveland for the division.
Minnesota: Time for another season of one of the best shortstops ever plus a pretty weak supporting cast. The Twins seem a fixture in the high 60s low 70s for a while.
Detroit: I don't know where that 45-win dumpster fire came from. My sheet thinks that the Tigers will be the worst team in the AL this year, but 45 wins is so bad it's kind of special. Unlikely to repeat that level of suck-artistry.
AL West: 14.4 wins below average
Colorado: The Rockies have been a fixture in the high 90s for some time. I don't have much interesting to say about the defending world champions. They aren't forecast as the top team in the AL this year (that goes to the Yankees) but they're in the top 3.
Seattle: The Mariners are expected to finish second, which would be their first time not finishing in the second division since 2044. They've slowly built their roster up and now that the A's aren't a threat the Mariners have a legit shot both at 2nd place and at 500. And if they get lucky, a playoff push isn't out of the question.
Oakland: Rarely has a team's fortunes altered so dramatically over one season. Forecast as one of the best teams in the AL the A's struggled mightily out of the gate and sold off most of their stars for youth. While the league waits to see what kind of crop the franchise can reap in the future, my sheet thinks that the A's have shed about 18 wins of talent, dropping them comfortably to the low 70s.
Los Angeles: What the Rockies are to high 90s the Angels are to the high 50s low 60s. It's only a matter of time before the horde of high draft picks lifts the fortunes of this franchise. Which is good because it's been a rough several years.
AL South: 34.2 wins above average
Texas: The Rangers had a bit of a down year last year, underperforming their forecast by 6 wins. This year the sheet thinks that they're three wins better, the best team in the best division in the AL. Can they miss the playoffs again? Sure. But there's every reason to be confident in the quality of this team.
Kansas City: Poor Royals. In 2050 I pegged them to finish high and they disappointed with 88 wins. I then predict 95 wins and, huzzah, they do so, only it happened to be in the same year when Houston won 103. It's weird how the narrative of such a young and loaded team is so twinged with disappointment. I think we're crazy. Kansas City five years ago was a train wreck. Now it's a routine playoff team. It's amazing how playing in a super-strong division makes them look less good than they really are.
Houston: For years my sheet was predicting that the AL South was the best division in the AL and that Houston was poised to make a run. It took a little longer than I'd expected, but it's all come true. Houston doubled down on a hot start and bought a lot of what the A's were selling. And it paid off with an excellent season. My sheet thinks they're now one of the best teams in the league, but perhaps only the 3rd best team in their own division. Current AL South = Old NL West.
Tampa Bay: The Rays are in a consistent holding pattern, with too much skill and pride to tank, but not enough talent to challenge any of the monstrosities that have emerged in their division. They probably have the roughest divisional situation of any team in the PBL.
Playoff Picture:
Bye Teams: Yankees 98-64, Rangers 97-65
Division Winners: Rockies 96-66, White Sox / Indians 90-72
Wild-Card Teams: Royals 93-69, Astros 93-69
First Out: White Sox / Indians 90-72, Mariners / Blue Jays 80-82
The AL is really a seven team league this year. While it's possible that a team not in those seven will make the playoffs, a ten-win predicted gap is really hard to overcome. The crying shame is that there are seven really good teams here and only six can make the playoffs.
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) It's not considering the idea that a team might be keeping someone ML-ready in the minors. The best players in the organization are assumed to be at the ML level.
4) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
5) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
6) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
7) It doesn't take into account manager style, skill or attention to detail. All managers are treated the same. There's no anticipating who will make a move at the trade deadline, or who will stick their head in the sand and tank the year away. Some managers always seem to overperform this sheet. Others seem to underperform it. We'll see what happens this year.
8) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
9) This is only counting teams' 40-man roster. If a player isn't on a 40-man, he isn't counted.
AL East: 3.1 wins below average
2050 Record | 2051 Forecast | 2051 Record | 2052 Forecast | |
New York | 90-72 | 92-70 | 101-61 | 98-64 |
Toronto | 68-94 | 80-82 | 71-91 | 80-82 |
Baltimore . | 75-87 | 74-88 | 92-70 | 75-87 |
Boston | 77-85 | 68-94 | 67-95 | 69-93 |
NYA: My sheet thought that the Yankees were very good last year, if not 100 wins. This year it thinks that they're even better than last year, the team to beat in the AL.
TOR: My sheet is perpetually a believer in Toronto and always seems to peg them too high. It thinks that they're exactly as good as last year, but that didn't exactly work out then. That said, I used to think that Montreal chronically underperformed my sheet until they won the NL East. So if Toronto wins 88 games, don't be too surprised. They have a solid rotation and several nice hitters.
BAL: My sheet thinks that Baltimore is almost exactly as good as last year. Unfortunately, it thinks that they're a below average team. Last year that prediction didn't turn out so well, as they won 92 games. We'll see how it goes this year.
BOS: My sheet called Boston perfectly last year and it thinks that they're about the same this year. Nobody said that rebuilding was a fast or easy process.
AL Central: 16.5 wins below average
2050 Record | 2051 Forecast | 2051 Record | 2052 Forecast | |
Chicago | 102-60 | 93-69 | 94-68 | 90-72 |
Cleveland | 73-89 | 80-82 | 100-62 | 90-72 |
Minnesota . | 67-95 | 71-91 | 65-97 | 68-94 |
Detroit | 70-92 | 67-95 | 45-117 | 60-102 |
Chicago: What can you say about a team with four All-Star capable shortstops? My sheet called the White Sox perfectly last year and this year it thinks they've regressed a little. Definitely still playoff-quality but in this year's AL anything can happen.
Cleveland: My sheet thought that Cleveland would be average last year; it was completely unprepared for the 100-win domination that the Indians unleashed. The sheet certainly doesn't think that Cleveland is a 100-win team, but that it's ten wins better than last year. Take that for whatever it's worth. Looks like another tight round of Chicago vs. Cleveland for the division.
Minnesota: Time for another season of one of the best shortstops ever plus a pretty weak supporting cast. The Twins seem a fixture in the high 60s low 70s for a while.
Detroit: I don't know where that 45-win dumpster fire came from. My sheet thinks that the Tigers will be the worst team in the AL this year, but 45 wins is so bad it's kind of special. Unlikely to repeat that level of suck-artistry.
AL West: 14.4 wins below average
2050 Record | 2051 Forecast | 2051 Record | 2052 Forecast | |
Colorado | 98-64 | 95-67 | 99-63 | 96-66 |
Seattle | 69-93 | 78-84 | 73-89 | 80-82 |
Oakland | 97-65 | 92-70 | 75-87 | 74-88 |
Los Angeles . | 62-100 | 59-103 | 53-109 | 61-101 |
Colorado: The Rockies have been a fixture in the high 90s for some time. I don't have much interesting to say about the defending world champions. They aren't forecast as the top team in the AL this year (that goes to the Yankees) but they're in the top 3.
Seattle: The Mariners are expected to finish second, which would be their first time not finishing in the second division since 2044. They've slowly built their roster up and now that the A's aren't a threat the Mariners have a legit shot both at 2nd place and at 500. And if they get lucky, a playoff push isn't out of the question.
Oakland: Rarely has a team's fortunes altered so dramatically over one season. Forecast as one of the best teams in the AL the A's struggled mightily out of the gate and sold off most of their stars for youth. While the league waits to see what kind of crop the franchise can reap in the future, my sheet thinks that the A's have shed about 18 wins of talent, dropping them comfortably to the low 70s.
Los Angeles: What the Rockies are to high 90s the Angels are to the high 50s low 60s. It's only a matter of time before the horde of high draft picks lifts the fortunes of this franchise. Which is good because it's been a rough several years.
AL South: 34.2 wins above average
2050 Record | 2051 Forecast | 2051 Record | 2052 Forecast | |
Texas | 93-69 | 94-68 | 88-74 | 97-65 |
Kansas City | 88-74 | 95-67 | 95-67 | 93-69 |
Houston | 89-73 | 86-76 | 103-59 | 93-69 |
Tampa Bay . | 77-85 | 74-88 | 75-89 | 75-89 |
Texas: The Rangers had a bit of a down year last year, underperforming their forecast by 6 wins. This year the sheet thinks that they're three wins better, the best team in the best division in the AL. Can they miss the playoffs again? Sure. But there's every reason to be confident in the quality of this team.
Kansas City: Poor Royals. In 2050 I pegged them to finish high and they disappointed with 88 wins. I then predict 95 wins and, huzzah, they do so, only it happened to be in the same year when Houston won 103. It's weird how the narrative of such a young and loaded team is so twinged with disappointment. I think we're crazy. Kansas City five years ago was a train wreck. Now it's a routine playoff team. It's amazing how playing in a super-strong division makes them look less good than they really are.
Houston: For years my sheet was predicting that the AL South was the best division in the AL and that Houston was poised to make a run. It took a little longer than I'd expected, but it's all come true. Houston doubled down on a hot start and bought a lot of what the A's were selling. And it paid off with an excellent season. My sheet thinks they're now one of the best teams in the league, but perhaps only the 3rd best team in their own division. Current AL South = Old NL West.
Tampa Bay: The Rays are in a consistent holding pattern, with too much skill and pride to tank, but not enough talent to challenge any of the monstrosities that have emerged in their division. They probably have the roughest divisional situation of any team in the PBL.
Playoff Picture:
Bye Teams: Yankees 98-64, Rangers 97-65
Division Winners: Rockies 96-66, White Sox / Indians 90-72
Wild-Card Teams: Royals 93-69, Astros 93-69
First Out: White Sox / Indians 90-72, Mariners / Blue Jays 80-82
The AL is really a seven team league this year. While it's possible that a team not in those seven will make the playoffs, a ten-win predicted gap is really hard to overcome. The crying shame is that there are seven really good teams here and only six can make the playoffs.