2051 PBL Forecast
Jul 3, 2019 19:58:38 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, BlueJaysGM_Fin, and 3 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Jul 3, 2019 19:58:38 GMT -5
Standard Disclaimers:
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) It's not considering the idea that a team might be keeping someone ML-ready in the minors. The best players in the organization are assumed to be at the ML level.
4) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
5) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
6) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
7) It doesn't take into account manager style, skill or attention to detail. All managers are treated the same. There's no anticipating who will make a move at the trade deadline, or who will stick their head in the sand and tank the year away. Some managers always seem to overperform this sheet. Others seem to underperform it. We'll see what happens this year.
8) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
AL East (-2.5):
New York Yankees: 91.9 wins
Toronto Blue Jays: 80.5 wins
Baltimore Orioles: 74.0 wins
Boston Red Sox: 67.6 wins
AL Central (-3.5):
Chicago White Sox: 92.5 wins
Cleveland Indians: 80.1 wins
Minnesota Twins: 70.7 wins
Detroit Tigers: 66.6 wins
AL West (0):
Colorado Rockies: 95.1 wins
Oakland Athletics: 91.6 wins
Seattle Mariners: 78.2 wins
Los Angeles Angels: 59.0 wins
AL South (+6.2):
Kansas City Royals: 95.0 wins
Texas Rangers: 93.8 wins
Houston Astros: 86.2 wins
Tampa Bay Rays: 73.7 wins
Top Units - Hitters (this counts fielding, not just hitting):
1. Texas Rangers
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians
Top Units - Pitchers:
1. Oakland Athletics
2. New York Yankees
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Colorado Rockies
5. Toronto Blue Jays
Thoughts - AL Edition:
1. The Yankees and White Sox are forecast to win their division by 10+ games each, surprising no one.
2. Last year my sheet pegged the Royals as the 3rd best team in the AL. They disappointed, but this year it thinks they're one of the two top teams in the AL.
3. The top of the AL is crazy-tight; the Yanks, White Sox, Rockies, A's, Rangers and Royals are all really, really really good. The gap between the 5th best team (forecasted) and the 7th best team (forecasted) is 11.1 wins. The gap between the #1 and #5 teams is 3.5 wins.
4. The sheet thinks that Houston is the tweener, a #6 that is considerably worse than the top 5 but considerably better than the first team out.
NL East (+0.5):
New York Mets: 86.1 wins
Philadelphia Phillies: 80.3 wins
Montreal Expos: 80.1 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates: 79.3 wins
NL Central (+0.9):
St. Louis Cardinals: 92.9 wins
Cincinnati Reds: 90.1 wins
Milwaukee Brewers: 72.9 wins
Chicago Cubs: 71.5 wins
NL West (+1.8):
San Diego Padres: 101.4 wins
Los Angeles Dodgers: 83.9 wins
Arizona Diamondbacks: 73.5 wins
San Francisco Giants: 72.2 wins
NL South (-3.0):
Washington Nationals: 96.5 wins
Carolina Warhounds: 74.4 wins
Miami Marlins: 73.0 wins
Atlanta Braves: 68.3 wins
Top Units - Hitters (this counts fielding, not just hitting):
1. San Diego Padres
2. Washington Nationals
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. New York Mets
Top Units - Pitchers:
1. Washington Nationals
2. San Diego Padres
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. New York Mets
Thoughts - NL Edition:
1. The NL is still worse than the AL, but not by as much as last year.
2. The Padres are the highest-rated team, which shouldn't be a surprise.
3. The NL has four excellent teams (San Diego, Washington, St. Louis and Cincinnati).
4. The NL East looks to be a cluster again, with the Mets as the best team, but with no bad teams. Odds are one of those three will make a playoff push this year, just by random variation.
5. The NL, like the AL, has six teams that really have no realistic shot at the playoffs.
6. Both the Warhounds and Marlins, at least on the basis of the talent they have access to, should be able to take considerable jumps this year if they wish.
7. While my sheet thinks that the NL East has the worst #1 team of all eight divisions, it also thinks that they have the best #4 of all the divisions.
1) This is purely produced by my sheet. I just plugged the teams in and it spit out numbers. I had very little subjectively to do with it, save by designing the sheet itself. So if your team is low or high, it isn't because I hate or love you.
2) This is purely ratings. It doesn't care about stats or personality.
3) It's not considering the idea that a team might be keeping someone ML-ready in the minors. The best players in the organization are assumed to be at the ML level.
4) Within reason, position-assignment of batters is done by the sheet as far as what it thinks is most efficient.
5) This does model injuries (within reason) but it obviously cannot anticipate season-enders.
6) This assumes no changes to rosters as of today.
7) It doesn't take into account manager style, skill or attention to detail. All managers are treated the same. There's no anticipating who will make a move at the trade deadline, or who will stick their head in the sand and tank the year away. Some managers always seem to overperform this sheet. Others seem to underperform it. We'll see what happens this year.
8) It's just a spreadsheet. It's guaranteed wrong in spots.
AL East (-2.5):
New York Yankees: 91.9 wins
Toronto Blue Jays: 80.5 wins
Baltimore Orioles: 74.0 wins
Boston Red Sox: 67.6 wins
AL Central (-3.5):
Chicago White Sox: 92.5 wins
Cleveland Indians: 80.1 wins
Minnesota Twins: 70.7 wins
Detroit Tigers: 66.6 wins
AL West (0):
Colorado Rockies: 95.1 wins
Oakland Athletics: 91.6 wins
Seattle Mariners: 78.2 wins
Los Angeles Angels: 59.0 wins
AL South (+6.2):
Kansas City Royals: 95.0 wins
Texas Rangers: 93.8 wins
Houston Astros: 86.2 wins
Tampa Bay Rays: 73.7 wins
Top Units - Hitters (this counts fielding, not just hitting):
1. Texas Rangers
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians
Top Units - Pitchers:
1. Oakland Athletics
2. New York Yankees
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Colorado Rockies
5. Toronto Blue Jays
Thoughts - AL Edition:
1. The Yankees and White Sox are forecast to win their division by 10+ games each, surprising no one.
2. Last year my sheet pegged the Royals as the 3rd best team in the AL. They disappointed, but this year it thinks they're one of the two top teams in the AL.
3. The top of the AL is crazy-tight; the Yanks, White Sox, Rockies, A's, Rangers and Royals are all really, really really good. The gap between the 5th best team (forecasted) and the 7th best team (forecasted) is 11.1 wins. The gap between the #1 and #5 teams is 3.5 wins.
4. The sheet thinks that Houston is the tweener, a #6 that is considerably worse than the top 5 but considerably better than the first team out.
NL East (+0.5):
New York Mets: 86.1 wins
Philadelphia Phillies: 80.3 wins
Montreal Expos: 80.1 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates: 79.3 wins
NL Central (+0.9):
St. Louis Cardinals: 92.9 wins
Cincinnati Reds: 90.1 wins
Milwaukee Brewers: 72.9 wins
Chicago Cubs: 71.5 wins
NL West (+1.8):
San Diego Padres: 101.4 wins
Los Angeles Dodgers: 83.9 wins
Arizona Diamondbacks: 73.5 wins
San Francisco Giants: 72.2 wins
NL South (-3.0):
Washington Nationals: 96.5 wins
Carolina Warhounds: 74.4 wins
Miami Marlins: 73.0 wins
Atlanta Braves: 68.3 wins
Top Units - Hitters (this counts fielding, not just hitting):
1. San Diego Padres
2. Washington Nationals
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. New York Mets
Top Units - Pitchers:
1. Washington Nationals
2. San Diego Padres
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. New York Mets
Thoughts - NL Edition:
1. The NL is still worse than the AL, but not by as much as last year.
2. The Padres are the highest-rated team, which shouldn't be a surprise.
3. The NL has four excellent teams (San Diego, Washington, St. Louis and Cincinnati).
4. The NL East looks to be a cluster again, with the Mets as the best team, but with no bad teams. Odds are one of those three will make a playoff push this year, just by random variation.
5. The NL, like the AL, has six teams that really have no realistic shot at the playoffs.
6. Both the Warhounds and Marlins, at least on the basis of the talent they have access to, should be able to take considerable jumps this year if they wish.
7. While my sheet thinks that the NL East has the worst #1 team of all eight divisions, it also thinks that they have the best #4 of all the divisions.