Hall of Fame Pyramid - Honorable Mention Center Fielders
Apr 26, 2019 18:34:15 GMT -5
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Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Apr 26, 2019 18:34:15 GMT -5
Starting off the Honorable Mention Center Fielders, Earl Averill! Averill was an excellent hitter who played in a minor league on the West Coast in his early 20s and did not debut for the Cleveland Indians until he was 27, in 1929. When he did he started a ten year streak where he was always worth 3.3 WAR or more every season, with seven seasons at 4+ and three seasons above 6 WAR, all while making six All-Star teams. Had his career started several years earlier there’s every reason to think he would have made Bronze.
He was not a particularly good fielder (-32 runs over his career) though his entire career being after 26 probably didn’t help him on that front. His bat was excellent for an OPS+ of 133 (above average for a center fielder in this building) over 7221 plate appearances. He was a career 318/395/534 hitter, which isn’t quite as impressive as it looks because of the hitter-friendly era he played in. Nevertheless his top tens paint a picture of an excellent all-around hitter: batting average (3), on-base percentage (4), slugging (8), total bases (6), doubles (3), triples (7), home runs (7), walks (2) and WAR (5). He was never the best player in the league, or particularly close, but he was an excellent hitter that played a tolerable center field, and so was extremely valuable to his team. In 1937 (age 36) he experienced temporary paralysis in his legs and was diagnosed with a congenital spinal condition. Though he had two more good years, by 1939 he was just barely above replacement level and he was out of baseball shortly thereafter. Again, quite good in his day; I only wish he’d been able to start younger. Not playing in the majors until 27 puts a serious cap on his career.
The second-best African American to break into the majors at center field in the 40s and 50s, Larry Doby! Doby, though far less famous than his National League counterpart, broke the color barrier for the American League. He debuted July 5, 1947 for the Cleveland Indians, three months after Jackie Robinson debuted for the Dodgers. Robinson going first did little to ease Doby’s way; his first day in the clubhouse none of his teammates would look him in the eyes, and for his first game starting he ended up needing to borrow a glove from the home team, as none of his teammates would lend him one. He struggled that year (at age 23).
His next season he got the chance to start in the outfield where he played an excellent all-around game and hit well in the postseason when the Indians won their second World Series in 1948. Pictures of Doby and white reliever Steve Gromek embracing after the victory are quite famous, and suggest that the racial tension, at least on the roster, had begun to thaw. Doby went on to have an excellent career, making seven All-Star teams and hitting for an OPS+ of 136 over 6299 plate appearances. He was an excellent fielder in his prime but his later years hurt his overall numbers (+13 runs overall) and a very good baserunner (+36 runs). Doby’s peak (1950-1952, ages 26-28) was worth 6.7, 6.4 and 7.1 WAR, as good as most peaks in the Bronze level. Doby took a lot of pitches, struck out a lot but walked plenty and had great power. He led the league in home runs twice (7 top tens), had seven top tens in walks and was in the top ten for WAR seven times, including a year (1952) where he led the league.
Doby has been inducted into Cooperstown, but remains an Honorable Mention here. Why? Doby’s peak is plenty good for Bronze; Doby’s problem is that by age 33 injuries had reduced his value to league average and he never recovered. This means that Doby only had nine full seasons at an above-average level. It is really hard to make Bronze with only 9 above average seasons unless they are truly dominant. Doby was very, very good but he was not at that level. What are the arguments for including him then? Unlike Robinson, Doby broke the color barrier young at age 23. It’s harder to argue that Doby lost MLB seasons to racism when he had a relatively early entry into the league, though the fact that at 24 he put up a 4.6 WAR season suggests that he was certainly ready (and even if Doby were given an additional 4-5 WAR season he still wouldn’t qualify for Bronze). You could argue that, as a player who had to overcome adversity, his numbers inevitably suffered and he should be compensated for that. This may be true, but it would be hard to quantify. You could argue that, as a man who blazed the trail for Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and Ernie Banks (who all hit the majors within seven years of Doby’s debut) he deserves historical recognition. That’s fair, but again, not a statistical argument. Ultimately, by the numbers, Doby falls short, with a respectable gap between him and Bronze. In my heart Doby deserves to be Bronze. But by the numbers he remains an Honorable Mention.
Speaking of African Americans who followed after Doby, Vada Pinson! Pinson is often forgotten but he had a very interesting career, breaking into the majors young (in 1958 at age 19) for the Cincinnati Reds, and had his entire peak *before* the age of 27. In fact, before age 27 he put up 40.4 WAR (an excellent total, and well ahead of most players); at age 27 and after he put up 14. Pinson was considered a top prospect (a cross between Mickey Mantle and Hank Aaron) for his combination of speed and power. He did not meet those expectations, or come particularly close, though winning a Gold Glove and making four All-Star teams. His career line was 286/327/442, better than it looks given that he played in the 60s, but still only a 111 OPS+ over 10403 plate appearances. His top tens paint a picture of a player with great contact and speed, but no patience: batting average (four), slugging (three), doubles (eight, led league twice), triples (nine, led league twice), steals (ten) and WAR (four). Though he had no top tens for home runs, he hit 20+ seven times and finished with 256 total. His glove was good before 27, but after it was sufficiently bad that, in aggregate, he shows as a bad fielder historically. He was an excellent runner, rarely grounding into double plays and stealing 305 bases while being caught only 122 times (+61 runs of value). His short peak depresses his value; only 8 seasons at 3+ WAR is low for this building, but he had five at 5+, three at 6+ and one 7.5 WAR season (at age 22!). Sometimes careers don’t work out the way you’d expect. But Pinson was a solid contact hitter with decent power who ran very well; as a Center Fielder this makes him quite good historically but only an Honorable Mention.
The worst-hitting center fielder in this building, Willie Davis! Willie Davis has a career OPS+ of 106 over 9822 plate appearances. This still means that he was an above-average hitter for a center fielder, but for this building it’s very low. Only five shortstops, one third baseman, one second baseman and one catcher were worse. His 279/311/412 line looks worse because of his era (1960-1979) but his low walks and low ISO speak for themselves. He had decent gap power (only two top tens with doubles but ten with triples including two league-leading) but limited home run power, hitting 182 for his career and only hitting more than 20 once. So if his bat is so limited (for someone in this building), what does he bring to the table that gets him in the door?
Everything else. Davis was an excellent fielder and incredible runner. He contributed 94 runs with his glove (including a +29 run season in 1964) but only won three Gold Gloves (losing to Curt Flood in 1964). He also contributed another 96 runs with his legs, rarely hitting into double plays and stealing 398 bases (only caught 131). If you were to take his glove and running out of the equation he has five 3+ WAR and three 4+ WAR seasons; not shabby but certainly not worthy of this building. As it is he has seven 4+ WAR seasons, four 5+ WAR seasons and one fantastic season at 8.3 WAR (which still made him the second best center fielder in the NL; Willie Mays finished with 11.0 WAR in 1964). Willie Davis played for the Dodgers most of his career and won two rings (63 and 65) with them, and was a perfect fit for their defense, speed and pitching teams of the 60s.
A player who got little love historically, whose value is almost completely tied up in two seasons, Cesar Cedeno! Cedeno is creepily similar to Pinson, even if he started a decade later. Both men started in the majors at 19 (Cedeno in 1970), both put up 40+ WAR before age 27, and both put up less than 15 WAR in the rest of their careers. Both were average to above average fielders and both were great runners (Cedeno stole 550 bags, was caught 179 times for +59 runs). The difference is that Cedeno played for less time and was a better hitter, with an OPS+ of 123 over 8133 plate appearances. Cedeno was more appreciated in his time (five Gold Gloves, four All-Stars) but mechanically had similar characteristics. He hit 285/347/443 for his career, with good gap power, good average and modest home run pop (199 for his career). Much of Cedeno’s admission here is built on his age 21 and 22 seasons where between them he hit 320/380/537 (OPS+ 157!) stole 111 bases and played good defense, finishing with 15.4 WAR between the two years. Both years he was one of the top 5 hitters in the NL. At the time Leo Durocher compared him favorably to Willie Mays, saying that Cedeno was better at 21 and 22 than Mays was (it's certainly true at 21, 8 WAR to 1.3 WAR, and Mays spent his age 22 season in the armed forces, so I think it's safe to say that by 22 Cedeno was better. Of course, by age 23 Mays started a thirteen-year streak of 7.8 WAR or higher, but that's another story.)
That offseason Cedeno was involved in an incident in the Dominican Republic, where his gun discharged and killed his 19 year-old girlfriend. He served three weeks in jail and paid a fine, but his career was never the same. He has seven 4+ WAR seasons overall but none in the 3 range (only seven seasons at 3+ is crazy low for this building). By age 23 everything was falling off; his ISO would never be as high and his BABIP would only be better once. Still. He had a really good career, and some of the best age 21 & 22 seasons of anyone. His peak didn’t look quite as impressive playing in the Astrodome (a pitcher’s park) but he was clearly excellent in those years.
**Thanks to Mac in Carolina for the Dominican Republic story; I hadn't found that anywhere!**
A great fielder and decent at everything, Chet Lemon! Lemon is the kind of player that always seems to be forgotten, if only because he did everything well but nothing amazingly. He was an excellent fielder (+93 runs) and led the AL in center fielding three times, though never won a Gold Glove. He played from 1975 to 1990 (ages 20 to 35) for the White Sox and Tigers, hitting 273, respectable but not impressive. He took a solid number of walks and led the league in hit by pitch four times, finishing with a 355 OBP (three top tens). And he had solid doubles power and modest home run power (four top tens four doubles, 215 career home runs). All in all his OPS+ was 121 over 7874 plate appearances, decent if not showy. Lemon was never dominating but regularly excellent, with nine seasons at 3.9 WAR or above, and four at 5.8 WAR or above, but nothing above 6.2. Lemon was simply a good hitter that played Gold Glove level defense in center, which makes him historically good, but not great. But certainly good enough to be here in the Honorable Mentions.
A very interesting case, Dale Murphy! Murphy is interesting because he won two MVP awards, in 1982 and 1983, yet is here in the Honorable Mention section. You’ll note that we try and give players with MVPs the benefit of the doubt, especially if they’re on the verge of the next level. Having been recognized as the most valuable player in your league is important and we want to honor that. The problem is that Murphy is on the verge, not of being Bronze, but of being left out entirely. Murphy played most of his career for the Braves (1976-1990, ages 20-34) in Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium which was a massively hitter-friendly park. This means that his impressive hitting numbers can’t entirely be trusted. His top tens are pretty sweet: average (twice), OBP (five times), slugging (six times, led league twice), home runs (nine times, led league twice), OPS+ (six times), total bases (seven times, led league once), runs created (seven times, led league three times) and WAR (six times). Murphy was a *really* good hitter, winning four Silver Sluggers. Murphy’s career line of 265/346/469 (OPS+ of 121 over 9041 PA) shows his decent patience and his quality slugging (career ISO of 200+).
The price of his patience and slugging was that he struck out a lot, finishing in the top ten twelve times and leading the league three times. He enjoyed a relatively normal career arc, at his best between 24 and 31, but before and after he did very little. Striking out so often meant that he needed to make very good contact when he put the ball in play and by age 32 he had lost that ability and his batting average was never above 252 after. Compounding his weaknesses was that he wasn’t a terribly good fielder (-33 for his career); four of his five Gold Gloves are mysteries. As for those MVP’s, the one he won in 1983 makes more sense; he finished second in WAR (7.1) that year to third baseman Dickie Thon (and barely ahead of third place Gary Carter). Murphy’s cosmetic numbers were better than the other two (he played in a less skill position and in a much more hitter-friendly stadium; Thon played in the hitter-punishing Astrodome) and he played on the best team of the three. But as for 1982 . . . it’s hard to see. Murphy finished 7th in WAR that year (6.1), 2.5 WAR behind Gary Carter. Carter hit 293/381/510 to Murphy’s 281/378/507 (Carter better in every way) while playing catcher (harder to find than center fielders) and fielding at an elite level (which Murphy did not). Murphy’s only selling points are 1) he played on a playoff team (though the Braves only won three games more than the Expos that year), and 2) he tied for the league lead in RBI. That’s it. Carter should have won that MVP by a mile, and if not him, Andre Dawson and Mike Schmidt both had an entire WAR lead on Murphy. So his MVP’s perhaps ought not be taken at face value.
Murphy’s peak, from 24 to 32 was excellent (45.5 WAR total, hitting 278/367/506 for that time) but he had no value outside of it. Likewise, his six 5+ WAR seasons is an excellent number (as is his four 6+ WAR), but him only having eight 2+ WAR reveals just how narrow his window was. Murphy was very good at his best. Just not Bronze.
One of the most beloved players of his day, Kirby Puckett! Puckett is one of the most decorated players in this tier; six Gold Gloves, six Silver Sluggers and ten All-Stars (along with two rings (1987 and 1991)); he has the most Gloves, Sluggers and All-Stars of any Honorable Mention center fielder. Even more interesting is that his career was short, only 7831 plate appearances, just ages 24 to 35, all with the Twins. And yet Puckett shows as on the lower-end of Honorable Mention as far as his JONS score goes. What’s up?
Well first, Puckett was a good hitter (124 OPS+) but not really better than any of these other guys. He was definitely specialized to what people like (batting average) but less for other things. His career line of 318/360/477 reveals a fantastic contact hitter who never walked and had modest power. His top tens: extra base hits (6), singles (8), doubles (8), batting average (7, 1 led league) and WAR (3, 1 led league). He had respectable pop (six seasons of 20+ home runs) but only broke 30 once. All these together make for a quality-hitting center fielder; but not historically great by any stretch. Much of his reputation, however, comes from his defensive acumen. Unfortunately, his numbers don’t match his reputation. Puckett broke onto the scene with an astounding +30 run fielding season at age 24. For the rest of his career he averaged -4 runs a season with his glove, for -14 runs total. He wasn’t terrible by a long shot, but neither was he dominant. While his career is full of highlight plays, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the aggregate of his fielding was positive.
Puckett was a great story; a kid who came from a rough background who stayed out of trouble by playing baseball. In a league of muscled players he was surprisingly portly, yet played with a speed and athleticism that belied his, well, belly. He always seemed to get a massive charge from playing baseball professionally, his infectious joy winning over fans and players alike. That he had to retire at 35 due to glaucoma was considered a tragedy. After he had retired, his reputation suffered considerably as a result of serious domestic abuse claims by both his wife and his longtime mistress. As a player, he had two great years above 7 WAR (7.8 and 7.1, the latter of which should have won him an MVP). The rest of his career was a 5, three 4s and three 3s. Really good; not great. If you think he was a considerably above average fielder (+50 runs or so) or if you think that batting average is the be-all end-all, then yeah, Puckett should be Bronze. Unfortunately, we think neither.
** Kirby Puckett was my favorite player growing up. He played for my favorite team, was super-fun to watch and his last name was practically a swear-word. If you were a five year-old he was everything you could want. Just an aside.**
Both over and underrated, Bernie Williams! Williams was the part of the prospect quartet the Yankees brought up in the early 90s: Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Williams. You can’t say that Williams didn’t get love: he won a Silver Slugger, four Gold Gloves, five All-Stars and four rings (‘96, ‘98, ‘99, ‘2000). He was an excellent hitter in his prime (from 25-33 his OPS+ was 140, batting 319/404/525), though the beginning and end of his career were low enough to bring the average down to a line of 297/381/477, an OPS+ of 125 over 9053 plate appearances. 125 is good; of the 17 Bronze and up center fielders, 6 didn’t hit better than 125. Williams’ real problem is that he was a terrible fielder. Through age 26 he was above average but by age 27 his glove was a negative every subsequent year. His glove, in fact, cost his teams 139 runs over his career. On average for someone in this building, one point of career OPS+ is worth about 11 fielding runs. This means that Bernie Williams is the equivalent of an average fielder who had an OPS+ of 112. Even at center field, it is impossible to make Bronze or above with an OPS+ that low, unless your glove + baserunning is worth at least an extra 100 runs. Williams was a very good hitter, but with such poor fielding he barely scraped into Honorable Mention.
Speaking of weak hitters with amazing gloves, Ricardo Aranda! Aranda broke in with the Pirates in 2015, at age 23. Out of the gate he dazzled with good contact, great glovework and amazing power. His rookie year he hit 280/351/451 for 5.1 WAR; at ages 24 and 25 he hit 309/379/592 (48 HR) and 307/380/496 for 8 WAR and 6.8 WAR respectively. At this point you could be forgiven for thinking that his career was destined for greatness, which it was if not quite as much as expected. A few things went against him; from age 26 to age 33 his strikeout rate increased every year and by age 28 he would be in the top ten in strikeouts every year until age 35. This cratered his batting average as he had never made terribly good contact, from age 27 on he would never hit above 270 and finished batting 260 on his career. He had decent patience and his power never abandoned him, finishing with 427 home runs and finishing in the top ten in that stat four times. In aggregate though, the stats toward the end of his career were so low that his overall line, 260/332/465 was only worth an OPS+ of 115.
What made Aranda great, however, was his glove. It was worth +10 runs or more every single year until age 32. In fact, Aranda’s glove was so good (worth +176 runs over his career) that he finishes as the fourth best fielding center fielder in the Hall, behind three big names: Andruw Jones, Giralldo Croner and Willie Mays. At his peak, when both his bat and glove were at their best, Aranda was fantastic: he has nine 3.9+ WAR years, seven 5+ WAR years, four 6+ WAR years, a 7 and an 8. That is an excellent peak; it’s a shame that his career after age 31 netted less than 5 WAR. Honestly, Aranda is right on the precipice of Bronze but his hardware just doesn’t justify a promotion. He won three Gold Gloves and made four All-Stars, but that’s pretty low for a Bronze-level player. Aranda was great in his peak, one of the top ten batters in his league five times. He’s worth remembering.
With one of the longest careers among the center fielders, Tony Gallegos! Gallegos was flat out not as good as Aranda but he was good for far longer. He had ten 3+ WAR years and eight 4+ WAR years, demonstrating considerable longevity. He broke in for the Angels in 2015 at age 21 and put up a 258/305/510 year, good enough for 3.9 WAR and a Rookie of the Year. Gallegos’ career line of 247/317/460 reveals several things: decent patience, excellent power and limited batting average. Gallegos struck out a ton, finishing in the top ten ten different times. In fact, he is fourth on the number of times struck out in MLB/PBL history. It is not easy to make the Hall while only batting 247. Thankfully Gallegos had a lot of power, hitting 444 home runs (only two top tens) but also showing great gap power, hitting 581 doubles and 132 triples (second all time - PBL). Even with these assets Gallegos’ batting line was only worth an OPS+ of 112 (11410 plate appearances), the third lowest among all the center fielders here.
Gallegos luckily brought more to the table. He was a quality fielder, not as good as Aranda but still worth +66 runs over his career. He was also (as you may have guessed from his triples) an excellent baserunner, stealing 555 bases in his career (8th in PBL history) while only being caught 156 times. These buoy his value decently. Gallegos’ weakness was his lack of peak; he never had a season above 6 WAR. He was consistently really good, but rarely great. His hardware (two Gold Gloves, three All-Stars) speaks to that. I guess, if you’re looking to be an all-time great and you are picking three stats to be in the top ten of, strikeouts, triples and steals are an esoteric combination, but not one optimized for success.
Closing out the Honorable Mention hitters, Left Fielders coming up!
He was not a particularly good fielder (-32 runs over his career) though his entire career being after 26 probably didn’t help him on that front. His bat was excellent for an OPS+ of 133 (above average for a center fielder in this building) over 7221 plate appearances. He was a career 318/395/534 hitter, which isn’t quite as impressive as it looks because of the hitter-friendly era he played in. Nevertheless his top tens paint a picture of an excellent all-around hitter: batting average (3), on-base percentage (4), slugging (8), total bases (6), doubles (3), triples (7), home runs (7), walks (2) and WAR (5). He was never the best player in the league, or particularly close, but he was an excellent hitter that played a tolerable center field, and so was extremely valuable to his team. In 1937 (age 36) he experienced temporary paralysis in his legs and was diagnosed with a congenital spinal condition. Though he had two more good years, by 1939 he was just barely above replacement level and he was out of baseball shortly thereafter. Again, quite good in his day; I only wish he’d been able to start younger. Not playing in the majors until 27 puts a serious cap on his career.
The second-best African American to break into the majors at center field in the 40s and 50s, Larry Doby! Doby, though far less famous than his National League counterpart, broke the color barrier for the American League. He debuted July 5, 1947 for the Cleveland Indians, three months after Jackie Robinson debuted for the Dodgers. Robinson going first did little to ease Doby’s way; his first day in the clubhouse none of his teammates would look him in the eyes, and for his first game starting he ended up needing to borrow a glove from the home team, as none of his teammates would lend him one. He struggled that year (at age 23).
His next season he got the chance to start in the outfield where he played an excellent all-around game and hit well in the postseason when the Indians won their second World Series in 1948. Pictures of Doby and white reliever Steve Gromek embracing after the victory are quite famous, and suggest that the racial tension, at least on the roster, had begun to thaw. Doby went on to have an excellent career, making seven All-Star teams and hitting for an OPS+ of 136 over 6299 plate appearances. He was an excellent fielder in his prime but his later years hurt his overall numbers (+13 runs overall) and a very good baserunner (+36 runs). Doby’s peak (1950-1952, ages 26-28) was worth 6.7, 6.4 and 7.1 WAR, as good as most peaks in the Bronze level. Doby took a lot of pitches, struck out a lot but walked plenty and had great power. He led the league in home runs twice (7 top tens), had seven top tens in walks and was in the top ten for WAR seven times, including a year (1952) where he led the league.
Doby has been inducted into Cooperstown, but remains an Honorable Mention here. Why? Doby’s peak is plenty good for Bronze; Doby’s problem is that by age 33 injuries had reduced his value to league average and he never recovered. This means that Doby only had nine full seasons at an above-average level. It is really hard to make Bronze with only 9 above average seasons unless they are truly dominant. Doby was very, very good but he was not at that level. What are the arguments for including him then? Unlike Robinson, Doby broke the color barrier young at age 23. It’s harder to argue that Doby lost MLB seasons to racism when he had a relatively early entry into the league, though the fact that at 24 he put up a 4.6 WAR season suggests that he was certainly ready (and even if Doby were given an additional 4-5 WAR season he still wouldn’t qualify for Bronze). You could argue that, as a player who had to overcome adversity, his numbers inevitably suffered and he should be compensated for that. This may be true, but it would be hard to quantify. You could argue that, as a man who blazed the trail for Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and Ernie Banks (who all hit the majors within seven years of Doby’s debut) he deserves historical recognition. That’s fair, but again, not a statistical argument. Ultimately, by the numbers, Doby falls short, with a respectable gap between him and Bronze. In my heart Doby deserves to be Bronze. But by the numbers he remains an Honorable Mention.
Speaking of African Americans who followed after Doby, Vada Pinson! Pinson is often forgotten but he had a very interesting career, breaking into the majors young (in 1958 at age 19) for the Cincinnati Reds, and had his entire peak *before* the age of 27. In fact, before age 27 he put up 40.4 WAR (an excellent total, and well ahead of most players); at age 27 and after he put up 14. Pinson was considered a top prospect (a cross between Mickey Mantle and Hank Aaron) for his combination of speed and power. He did not meet those expectations, or come particularly close, though winning a Gold Glove and making four All-Star teams. His career line was 286/327/442, better than it looks given that he played in the 60s, but still only a 111 OPS+ over 10403 plate appearances. His top tens paint a picture of a player with great contact and speed, but no patience: batting average (four), slugging (three), doubles (eight, led league twice), triples (nine, led league twice), steals (ten) and WAR (four). Though he had no top tens for home runs, he hit 20+ seven times and finished with 256 total. His glove was good before 27, but after it was sufficiently bad that, in aggregate, he shows as a bad fielder historically. He was an excellent runner, rarely grounding into double plays and stealing 305 bases while being caught only 122 times (+61 runs of value). His short peak depresses his value; only 8 seasons at 3+ WAR is low for this building, but he had five at 5+, three at 6+ and one 7.5 WAR season (at age 22!). Sometimes careers don’t work out the way you’d expect. But Pinson was a solid contact hitter with decent power who ran very well; as a Center Fielder this makes him quite good historically but only an Honorable Mention.
The worst-hitting center fielder in this building, Willie Davis! Willie Davis has a career OPS+ of 106 over 9822 plate appearances. This still means that he was an above-average hitter for a center fielder, but for this building it’s very low. Only five shortstops, one third baseman, one second baseman and one catcher were worse. His 279/311/412 line looks worse because of his era (1960-1979) but his low walks and low ISO speak for themselves. He had decent gap power (only two top tens with doubles but ten with triples including two league-leading) but limited home run power, hitting 182 for his career and only hitting more than 20 once. So if his bat is so limited (for someone in this building), what does he bring to the table that gets him in the door?
Everything else. Davis was an excellent fielder and incredible runner. He contributed 94 runs with his glove (including a +29 run season in 1964) but only won three Gold Gloves (losing to Curt Flood in 1964). He also contributed another 96 runs with his legs, rarely hitting into double plays and stealing 398 bases (only caught 131). If you were to take his glove and running out of the equation he has five 3+ WAR and three 4+ WAR seasons; not shabby but certainly not worthy of this building. As it is he has seven 4+ WAR seasons, four 5+ WAR seasons and one fantastic season at 8.3 WAR (which still made him the second best center fielder in the NL; Willie Mays finished with 11.0 WAR in 1964). Willie Davis played for the Dodgers most of his career and won two rings (63 and 65) with them, and was a perfect fit for their defense, speed and pitching teams of the 60s.
A player who got little love historically, whose value is almost completely tied up in two seasons, Cesar Cedeno! Cedeno is creepily similar to Pinson, even if he started a decade later. Both men started in the majors at 19 (Cedeno in 1970), both put up 40+ WAR before age 27, and both put up less than 15 WAR in the rest of their careers. Both were average to above average fielders and both were great runners (Cedeno stole 550 bags, was caught 179 times for +59 runs). The difference is that Cedeno played for less time and was a better hitter, with an OPS+ of 123 over 8133 plate appearances. Cedeno was more appreciated in his time (five Gold Gloves, four All-Stars) but mechanically had similar characteristics. He hit 285/347/443 for his career, with good gap power, good average and modest home run pop (199 for his career). Much of Cedeno’s admission here is built on his age 21 and 22 seasons where between them he hit 320/380/537 (OPS+ 157!) stole 111 bases and played good defense, finishing with 15.4 WAR between the two years. Both years he was one of the top 5 hitters in the NL. At the time Leo Durocher compared him favorably to Willie Mays, saying that Cedeno was better at 21 and 22 than Mays was (it's certainly true at 21, 8 WAR to 1.3 WAR, and Mays spent his age 22 season in the armed forces, so I think it's safe to say that by 22 Cedeno was better. Of course, by age 23 Mays started a thirteen-year streak of 7.8 WAR or higher, but that's another story.)
That offseason Cedeno was involved in an incident in the Dominican Republic, where his gun discharged and killed his 19 year-old girlfriend. He served three weeks in jail and paid a fine, but his career was never the same. He has seven 4+ WAR seasons overall but none in the 3 range (only seven seasons at 3+ is crazy low for this building). By age 23 everything was falling off; his ISO would never be as high and his BABIP would only be better once. Still. He had a really good career, and some of the best age 21 & 22 seasons of anyone. His peak didn’t look quite as impressive playing in the Astrodome (a pitcher’s park) but he was clearly excellent in those years.
**Thanks to Mac in Carolina for the Dominican Republic story; I hadn't found that anywhere!**
A great fielder and decent at everything, Chet Lemon! Lemon is the kind of player that always seems to be forgotten, if only because he did everything well but nothing amazingly. He was an excellent fielder (+93 runs) and led the AL in center fielding three times, though never won a Gold Glove. He played from 1975 to 1990 (ages 20 to 35) for the White Sox and Tigers, hitting 273, respectable but not impressive. He took a solid number of walks and led the league in hit by pitch four times, finishing with a 355 OBP (three top tens). And he had solid doubles power and modest home run power (four top tens four doubles, 215 career home runs). All in all his OPS+ was 121 over 7874 plate appearances, decent if not showy. Lemon was never dominating but regularly excellent, with nine seasons at 3.9 WAR or above, and four at 5.8 WAR or above, but nothing above 6.2. Lemon was simply a good hitter that played Gold Glove level defense in center, which makes him historically good, but not great. But certainly good enough to be here in the Honorable Mentions.
A very interesting case, Dale Murphy! Murphy is interesting because he won two MVP awards, in 1982 and 1983, yet is here in the Honorable Mention section. You’ll note that we try and give players with MVPs the benefit of the doubt, especially if they’re on the verge of the next level. Having been recognized as the most valuable player in your league is important and we want to honor that. The problem is that Murphy is on the verge, not of being Bronze, but of being left out entirely. Murphy played most of his career for the Braves (1976-1990, ages 20-34) in Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium which was a massively hitter-friendly park. This means that his impressive hitting numbers can’t entirely be trusted. His top tens are pretty sweet: average (twice), OBP (five times), slugging (six times, led league twice), home runs (nine times, led league twice), OPS+ (six times), total bases (seven times, led league once), runs created (seven times, led league three times) and WAR (six times). Murphy was a *really* good hitter, winning four Silver Sluggers. Murphy’s career line of 265/346/469 (OPS+ of 121 over 9041 PA) shows his decent patience and his quality slugging (career ISO of 200+).
The price of his patience and slugging was that he struck out a lot, finishing in the top ten twelve times and leading the league three times. He enjoyed a relatively normal career arc, at his best between 24 and 31, but before and after he did very little. Striking out so often meant that he needed to make very good contact when he put the ball in play and by age 32 he had lost that ability and his batting average was never above 252 after. Compounding his weaknesses was that he wasn’t a terribly good fielder (-33 for his career); four of his five Gold Gloves are mysteries. As for those MVP’s, the one he won in 1983 makes more sense; he finished second in WAR (7.1) that year to third baseman Dickie Thon (and barely ahead of third place Gary Carter). Murphy’s cosmetic numbers were better than the other two (he played in a less skill position and in a much more hitter-friendly stadium; Thon played in the hitter-punishing Astrodome) and he played on the best team of the three. But as for 1982 . . . it’s hard to see. Murphy finished 7th in WAR that year (6.1), 2.5 WAR behind Gary Carter. Carter hit 293/381/510 to Murphy’s 281/378/507 (Carter better in every way) while playing catcher (harder to find than center fielders) and fielding at an elite level (which Murphy did not). Murphy’s only selling points are 1) he played on a playoff team (though the Braves only won three games more than the Expos that year), and 2) he tied for the league lead in RBI. That’s it. Carter should have won that MVP by a mile, and if not him, Andre Dawson and Mike Schmidt both had an entire WAR lead on Murphy. So his MVP’s perhaps ought not be taken at face value.
Murphy’s peak, from 24 to 32 was excellent (45.5 WAR total, hitting 278/367/506 for that time) but he had no value outside of it. Likewise, his six 5+ WAR seasons is an excellent number (as is his four 6+ WAR), but him only having eight 2+ WAR reveals just how narrow his window was. Murphy was very good at his best. Just not Bronze.
One of the most beloved players of his day, Kirby Puckett! Puckett is one of the most decorated players in this tier; six Gold Gloves, six Silver Sluggers and ten All-Stars (along with two rings (1987 and 1991)); he has the most Gloves, Sluggers and All-Stars of any Honorable Mention center fielder. Even more interesting is that his career was short, only 7831 plate appearances, just ages 24 to 35, all with the Twins. And yet Puckett shows as on the lower-end of Honorable Mention as far as his JONS score goes. What’s up?
Well first, Puckett was a good hitter (124 OPS+) but not really better than any of these other guys. He was definitely specialized to what people like (batting average) but less for other things. His career line of 318/360/477 reveals a fantastic contact hitter who never walked and had modest power. His top tens: extra base hits (6), singles (8), doubles (8), batting average (7, 1 led league) and WAR (3, 1 led league). He had respectable pop (six seasons of 20+ home runs) but only broke 30 once. All these together make for a quality-hitting center fielder; but not historically great by any stretch. Much of his reputation, however, comes from his defensive acumen. Unfortunately, his numbers don’t match his reputation. Puckett broke onto the scene with an astounding +30 run fielding season at age 24. For the rest of his career he averaged -4 runs a season with his glove, for -14 runs total. He wasn’t terrible by a long shot, but neither was he dominant. While his career is full of highlight plays, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the aggregate of his fielding was positive.
Puckett was a great story; a kid who came from a rough background who stayed out of trouble by playing baseball. In a league of muscled players he was surprisingly portly, yet played with a speed and athleticism that belied his, well, belly. He always seemed to get a massive charge from playing baseball professionally, his infectious joy winning over fans and players alike. That he had to retire at 35 due to glaucoma was considered a tragedy. After he had retired, his reputation suffered considerably as a result of serious domestic abuse claims by both his wife and his longtime mistress. As a player, he had two great years above 7 WAR (7.8 and 7.1, the latter of which should have won him an MVP). The rest of his career was a 5, three 4s and three 3s. Really good; not great. If you think he was a considerably above average fielder (+50 runs or so) or if you think that batting average is the be-all end-all, then yeah, Puckett should be Bronze. Unfortunately, we think neither.
** Kirby Puckett was my favorite player growing up. He played for my favorite team, was super-fun to watch and his last name was practically a swear-word. If you were a five year-old he was everything you could want. Just an aside.**
Both over and underrated, Bernie Williams! Williams was the part of the prospect quartet the Yankees brought up in the early 90s: Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Williams. You can’t say that Williams didn’t get love: he won a Silver Slugger, four Gold Gloves, five All-Stars and four rings (‘96, ‘98, ‘99, ‘2000). He was an excellent hitter in his prime (from 25-33 his OPS+ was 140, batting 319/404/525), though the beginning and end of his career were low enough to bring the average down to a line of 297/381/477, an OPS+ of 125 over 9053 plate appearances. 125 is good; of the 17 Bronze and up center fielders, 6 didn’t hit better than 125. Williams’ real problem is that he was a terrible fielder. Through age 26 he was above average but by age 27 his glove was a negative every subsequent year. His glove, in fact, cost his teams 139 runs over his career. On average for someone in this building, one point of career OPS+ is worth about 11 fielding runs. This means that Bernie Williams is the equivalent of an average fielder who had an OPS+ of 112. Even at center field, it is impossible to make Bronze or above with an OPS+ that low, unless your glove + baserunning is worth at least an extra 100 runs. Williams was a very good hitter, but with such poor fielding he barely scraped into Honorable Mention.
Speaking of weak hitters with amazing gloves, Ricardo Aranda! Aranda broke in with the Pirates in 2015, at age 23. Out of the gate he dazzled with good contact, great glovework and amazing power. His rookie year he hit 280/351/451 for 5.1 WAR; at ages 24 and 25 he hit 309/379/592 (48 HR) and 307/380/496 for 8 WAR and 6.8 WAR respectively. At this point you could be forgiven for thinking that his career was destined for greatness, which it was if not quite as much as expected. A few things went against him; from age 26 to age 33 his strikeout rate increased every year and by age 28 he would be in the top ten in strikeouts every year until age 35. This cratered his batting average as he had never made terribly good contact, from age 27 on he would never hit above 270 and finished batting 260 on his career. He had decent patience and his power never abandoned him, finishing with 427 home runs and finishing in the top ten in that stat four times. In aggregate though, the stats toward the end of his career were so low that his overall line, 260/332/465 was only worth an OPS+ of 115.
What made Aranda great, however, was his glove. It was worth +10 runs or more every single year until age 32. In fact, Aranda’s glove was so good (worth +176 runs over his career) that he finishes as the fourth best fielding center fielder in the Hall, behind three big names: Andruw Jones, Giralldo Croner and Willie Mays. At his peak, when both his bat and glove were at their best, Aranda was fantastic: he has nine 3.9+ WAR years, seven 5+ WAR years, four 6+ WAR years, a 7 and an 8. That is an excellent peak; it’s a shame that his career after age 31 netted less than 5 WAR. Honestly, Aranda is right on the precipice of Bronze but his hardware just doesn’t justify a promotion. He won three Gold Gloves and made four All-Stars, but that’s pretty low for a Bronze-level player. Aranda was great in his peak, one of the top ten batters in his league five times. He’s worth remembering.
With one of the longest careers among the center fielders, Tony Gallegos! Gallegos was flat out not as good as Aranda but he was good for far longer. He had ten 3+ WAR years and eight 4+ WAR years, demonstrating considerable longevity. He broke in for the Angels in 2015 at age 21 and put up a 258/305/510 year, good enough for 3.9 WAR and a Rookie of the Year. Gallegos’ career line of 247/317/460 reveals several things: decent patience, excellent power and limited batting average. Gallegos struck out a ton, finishing in the top ten ten different times. In fact, he is fourth on the number of times struck out in MLB/PBL history. It is not easy to make the Hall while only batting 247. Thankfully Gallegos had a lot of power, hitting 444 home runs (only two top tens) but also showing great gap power, hitting 581 doubles and 132 triples (second all time - PBL). Even with these assets Gallegos’ batting line was only worth an OPS+ of 112 (11410 plate appearances), the third lowest among all the center fielders here.
Gallegos luckily brought more to the table. He was a quality fielder, not as good as Aranda but still worth +66 runs over his career. He was also (as you may have guessed from his triples) an excellent baserunner, stealing 555 bases in his career (8th in PBL history) while only being caught 156 times. These buoy his value decently. Gallegos’ weakness was his lack of peak; he never had a season above 6 WAR. He was consistently really good, but rarely great. His hardware (two Gold Gloves, three All-Stars) speaks to that. I guess, if you’re looking to be an all-time great and you are picking three stats to be in the top ten of, strikeouts, triples and steals are an esoteric combination, but not one optimized for success.
Closing out the Honorable Mention hitters, Left Fielders coming up!