PBL Playoff Odds - 2050
Apr 9, 2019 8:45:50 GMT -5
Rich - Former GM, Texas Rangers, and 5 more like this
Post by sansterre - Milwaukee Brewers on Apr 9, 2019 8:45:50 GMT -5
Premise:
1) I use my preseason forecasted WAR combined with actual WAR, weighted so that at the beginning of the season it's only considering my forecast, and by the end of the season it's only considering actual WAR for the year. I regress it 15% to the mean.
2) Given the current record and estimated team quality (the formula from part 1) and strength of schedule, I simulate the rest of the schedule 5000 times.
3) The probability of results are posted here.
4) This does not take into account trades or injuries, except as those have affected current team WAR.
5) WAR Rating (WR) is just the standard deviations above/below the mean in team WAR. Anything beyond +/- 2 is historically great/terrible, anything beyond +/- 1 is quite good/bad and generally you aren't a realistic playoff team (unless your division blows) unless your WAR rating is at least +0.6. Obviously it changes through the season.
6) The Deltas are just the change from the last posting. In this case, from the preseason odds/forecast.
7) When I say month, I really mean four sims. It's just easier to write.
8/15/50
Busy working on my pyramid so this will be a shorter write-up.
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Chicago White Sox (100% playoff), Colorado Rockies (100%)
Divisional Winners: New York Yankees (99.1%), Texas Rangers (96.0%)
WildCard Teams: Oakland Athletics (99.7%), Kansas City Royals (76.9%)
On The Bubble: Houston (25.1%), Tampa Bay (1.4%), Boston (1.3%), Baltimore (0.2%), Cleveland (0.1%)
Odds that the named 6 make the playoffs: 72.9%
Playoff Picture:
Byes: San Diego Padres (100% playoff), Washington Nationals (100%)
Division Winners: Cincinnati Reds (99.8%), New York Mets (57.3%)
WildCard Teams: St. Louis Cardinals (99.6%), Pittsburgh Pirates (54.7%)
Bubble Teams: Los Angeles (53.2%), Arizona (19.5%), Montreal (9.4%), San Francisco (3.1%), Philadelphia (2.0%), Milwaukee (1.7%)
Odds that the named 6 make the playoffs: 31.2%
6/27/50
I'm doing a shorter version of the article because I'm tired and grumpy about how my Brewers are playing.
1) I use my preseason forecasted WAR combined with actual WAR, weighted so that at the beginning of the season it's only considering my forecast, and by the end of the season it's only considering actual WAR for the year. I regress it 15% to the mean.
2) Given the current record and estimated team quality (the formula from part 1) and strength of schedule, I simulate the rest of the schedule 5000 times.
3) The probability of results are posted here.
4) This does not take into account trades or injuries, except as those have affected current team WAR.
5) WAR Rating (WR) is just the standard deviations above/below the mean in team WAR. Anything beyond +/- 2 is historically great/terrible, anything beyond +/- 1 is quite good/bad and generally you aren't a realistic playoff team (unless your division blows) unless your WAR rating is at least +0.6. Obviously it changes through the season.
6) The Deltas are just the change from the last posting. In this case, from the preseason odds/forecast.
7) When I say month, I really mean four sims. It's just easier to write.
8/15/50
Busy working on my pyramid so this will be a shorter write-up.
AL East | Record | Last 1.5 Months | WAR Rating | Est. Wins | Playoff% | Bye% |
NYA | 65-53 | 21-21 | +0.86 | 89.7 | 99.1% | 2.5% |
BOS | 56-61 | 19-22 | +0.03 | 77.5 | 1.3% | |
BAL | 56-61 | 21-20 | -0.63 | 75.9 | 0.2% | |
TOR | 51-66 | 16-25 | -0.61 | 71.5 | ||
AL Central | ||||||
CHA | 76-41 | 27-15 | +1.58 | 102.9 | 100% | 99.1% |
CLE | 54-64 | 19-23 | +0.23 | 76.7 | 0.1% | |
DET | 50-67 | 18-23 | -1.25 | 67.9 | ||
MIN | 47-71 | 15-27 | -0.41 | 67.3 | ||
AL West | ||||||
COL | 71-46 | 26-15 | +2.02 | 99.5 | 100% | 71.7% |
OAK | 70-48 | 24-18 | +1.17 | 96.2 | 99.7% | 17.3% |
SEA | 51-67 | 18-24 | -1.28 | 69.0 | ||
LAA | 40-78 | 15-27 | -1.57 | 57.0 | ||
AL South | ||||||
TEX | 68-51 | 22-20 | +0.65 | 92.0 | 96.0% | 5.9% |
KCA | 63-54 | 27-14 | +0.73 | 88.2 | 76.9% | 0.3% |
HOU | 63-55 | 26-16 | -0.27 | 84.6 | 25.1% | 0.1% |
TBA | 58-60 | 20-20 | -0.27 | 79.1 | 1.4% |
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Chicago White Sox (100% playoff), Colorado Rockies (100%)
Divisional Winners: New York Yankees (99.1%), Texas Rangers (96.0%)
WildCard Teams: Oakland Athletics (99.7%), Kansas City Royals (76.9%)
On The Bubble: Houston (25.1%), Tampa Bay (1.4%), Boston (1.3%), Baltimore (0.2%), Cleveland (0.1%)
Odds that the named 6 make the playoffs: 72.9%
NL East | Record | Last 1.5 Months | WAR Rating | Est. Wins | Playoff% | Bye% |
NYN | 60-57 | 21-20 | +0.43 | 83.9 | 57.3% | |
PIT | 61-56 | 22-19 | +0.10 | 83.8 | 54.7% | |
MON | 58-59 | 18-23 | -0.17 | 79.6 | 9.4% | |
PHI | 56-62 | 19-23 | -0.42 | 76.8 | 2.0% | |
NL Central | ||||||
CIN | 68-50 | 27-15 | +1.13 | 93.7 | 99.8% | 6.7% |
STL | 68-50 | 24-18 | +1.00 | 93.6 | 99.6% | 5.5% |
MIL | 55-62 | 20-21 | -0.40 | 76.8 | 1.7% | |
CHN | 54-63 | 19-23 | -1.49 | 71.7 | ||
NL West | ||||||
SDN | 75-43 | 23-19 | +1.53 | 101.9 | 100% | 95.5% |
LAN | 62-56 | 23-19 | +0.22 | 84.6 | 53.2% | |
ARI | 59-58 | 22-19 | +0.32 | 81.9 | 19.5% | |
SFN | 58-60 | 21-21 | -0.17 | 78.1 | 3.1% | |
NL South | ||||||
WAS | 75-44 | 25-17 | +1.07 | 100.2 | 100% | 85.0% |
ATL | 49-69 | 13-29 | -1.38 | 66.9 | ||
MIA | 43-75 | 18-22 | -1.07 | 60.8 | ||
CAR | 42-75 | 15-26 | -1.67 | 59.4 |
Playoff Picture:
Byes: San Diego Padres (100% playoff), Washington Nationals (100%)
Division Winners: Cincinnati Reds (99.8%), New York Mets (57.3%)
WildCard Teams: St. Louis Cardinals (99.6%), Pittsburgh Pirates (54.7%)
Bubble Teams: Los Angeles (53.2%), Arizona (19.5%), Montreal (9.4%), San Francisco (3.1%), Philadelphia (2.0%), Milwaukee (1.7%)
Odds that the named 6 make the playoffs: 31.2%
6/27/50
I'm doing a shorter version of the article because I'm tired and grumpy about how my Brewers are playing.
AL East | Record | Last Month | WAR Rating | Est.Wins | Playoff% | Bye% |
NYA | 44-32 | 13-12 | +0.65 | 91.1 | 97.9% | 8.7% |
TOR | 35-41 | 11-14 | -0.33 | 76.1 | 4.8% | |
BOS | 37-39 | 16-9 | -0.04 | 75.7 | 3.1% | |
BAL | 35-41 | 11-14 | -0.78 | 72.2 | 0.5% | |
AL Central | ||||||
CHA | 49-26 | 14-10 | +1.66 | 99.7 | 100.0% | 79.3% |
CLE | 35-41 | 11-14 | +0.25 | 80.5 | 17.8% | |
MIN | 32-44 | 8-17 | -0.29 | 71.1 | 0.2% | |
DET | 32-44 | 12-12 | -1.04 | 66.8 | ||
AL West | ||||||
OAK | 46-30 | 17-9 | +1.13 | 97.2 | 99.8% | 41.2% |
COL | 45-31 | 15-10 | +1.82 | 96.9 | 99.6% | 37.5% |
SEA | 33-43 | 10-15 | -0.86 | 70.9 | 0.2% | |
LAA | 25-51 | 7-19 | -1.58 | 59.0 | ||
AL South | ||||||
TEX | 46-31 | 17-8 | +0.42 | 93.4 | 98.3% | 23.7% |
KCA | 36-40 | 11-15 | +0.58 | 84.3 | 51.4% | 0.7% |
HOU | 37-39 | 14-11 | -0.51 | 79.7 | 15.3% | 0.1% |
TBA | 38-40 | 13-13 | -0.04 | 79.1 | 11.2% |
NL East | Record | Last Month | WAR Rating | Est.Wins | Playoff% | Bye% |
NYN | 39-37 | 13-12 | +0.21 | 84.1 | 55.8% | 0.1% |
PIT | 39-37 | 14-11 | +0.07 | 82.9 | 40.1% | |
MON | 40-36 | 18-7 | +0.19 | 82.6 | 38.6% | |
PHI | 37-39 | 7-18 | -0.90 | 76.8 | 6.3% | |
NL Central | ||||||
STL | 44-32 | 16-9 | +1.25 | 95.0 | 99.4% | 13.7% |
CIN | 41-35 | 11-14 | +1.39 | 91.6 | 94.6% | 3.8% |
MIL | 35-41 | 11-13 | -0.49 | 78.2 | 8.3% | |
CHN | 35-40 | 11-13 | -1.85 | 69.1 | 0.1% | |
NL West | ||||||
SDN | 52-24 | 18-8 | +1.53 | 104.9 | 100.0% | 94.3% |
LAN | 39-37 | 13-13 | -0.09 | 82.6 | 37.7% | |
ARI | 37-39 | 11-14 | +0.01 | 79.4 | 15.7% | |
SFN | 37-39 | 13-12 | -0.28 | 74.7 | 2.5% | |
NL South | ||||||
WAS | 50-27 | 15-10 | +1.56 | 102.0 | 100.0% | 82.5% |
ATL | 36-40 | 11-14 | -1.03 | 72.8 | 0.6% | |
CAR | 27-49 | 9-17 | -1.36 | 62.1 | ||
MIA | 25-53 | 11-15 | -1.24 | 57.6 |
5/30/50
AL East | Record | Month | War Rating | Playoff% | Bye% | Est.Wins | WR Dlta | PO Dlta | EW Delta |
NYA | 31-20 | 16-10 | +1.01 | 98.0% | 23.4% | 92.9 | -0.11 | +3.0% | +1.9 |
TOR | 24-27 | 14-13 | -0.18 | 7.6% | 78.2 | +0.50 | +3.0% | +2.5 | |
BAL | 24-27 | 9-17 | -0.71 | 0.5% | 71.6 | -0.77 | -2.2% | -3.4 | |
BOS | 21-30 | 10-16 | -0.73 | 67.6 | -0.18 | -0.1% | -0.5 | ||
AL Central | |||||||||
CHA | 35-16 | 18-8 | +1.44 | 99.4% | 67.9% | 98.1 | +0.50 | +4.6% | +5.5 |
CLE | 24-27 | 16-10 | -0.02 | 20.6% | 0.5% | 82.5 | +1.08 | +10.6% | +3.6 |
MIN | 24-27 | 9-17 | -0.15 | 1.2% | 73.9 | -0.23 | -2.3% | -1.9 | |
DET | 20-32 | 11-15 | -1.16 | 63.8 | -0.40 | +0.2 | |||
AL West | |||||||||
COL | 30-21 | 14-12 | +2.15 | 98.6% | 45.8% | 97.3 | -0.04 | +2.2% | -0.2 |
OAK | 29-21 | 15-10 | +0.74 | 96.7% | 28.8% | 95.6 | -0.75 | -0.5% | -2.1 |
SEA | 23-28 | 12-14 | -0.72 | 0.2% | 72.5 | +0.11 | -0.9% | +0.4 | |
LAA | 18-32 | 9-16 | -1.41 | 63.3 | -0.31 | -1.9 | |||
AL South | |||||||||
TEX | 29-23 | 17-10 | +0.13 | 82.7% | 12.8% | 90.6 | +0.50 | +12.0% | +1.2 |
KCA | 25-25 | 13-14 | +0.81 | 80.2% | 9.5% | 89.7 | +0.22 | -6.7% | -2.9 |
TBA | 25-27 | 12-15 | +0.15 | 7.4% | 78.9 | -0.20 | -2.7% | -1.0 | |
HOU | 23-28 | 11-16 | -0.68 | 6.4% | 0.1% | 79.1 | -0.02 | -20.1% | -4.7 |
Playoff Picture:
Byes: Chicago White Sox (99.4% playoff), Colorado Rockies (98.6%)
Division Winners: New York Yankees (98.0%), Texas Rangers (82.7%)
Wild Cards: Oakland Athletics (96.7%), Kansas City Royals (80.2%)
Next Out: Cleveland (20.6%), Toronto (7.6%), Tampa Bay (7.4%), Houston (6.4%)
Odds that the listed 6 will all make the playoffs: 61.6%
Risers:
Toronto: The Blue Jays may have only gone 14-13, but they played well, upping their WR from quite poor to just below average. They are still forecast to finish below 500, but they're back in command as the #2 team in the AL East. A playoff run, though improbable, is still a possibility.
Chicago: The White Sox are unstoppable, just as I predicted! They top a 17-8 first month with an 18-8 second month, playing out of their minds and bumping their WR to +1.44, the 3rd highest in the PBL. They're now the favorite for a bye and the most likely to win 100+ games.
Cleveland: The Indians followed their excrementitious first month with a very solid second month. They went 16-10, brought their WR back to average (which takes some doing when you started at -1.1) and are projected to finish above 500. An impressive turnaround, one that puts Cleveland as the most likely underdog playoff team. Discerning fans will note that this is the opposite of last year, where Cleveland played out of their minds in April and rode it all year. Cleveland played in the gutter this April, and will be digging themselves out all year.
Texas: The Rangers are back baby! They went 17-10, brought their WR back above average and took back control of the AL South. The forecast is concerned about quality of performance; though the Rangers have the lead the Royals have played considerably better so far, so the forecast still thinks the Royals ought not be counted out.
Fallers:
Baltimore: The Orioles' high-flying first month ended violently, with a 9-17 set of sims where the Orioles played terribly.
Oakland: The Athletics had a secretly bad month, playing about average ball and managing to still go 15-10. Given their solid record, the talent on their roster, and Cleveland's rough April, Oakland is still a shoe-in for the playoffs. But the forecast is becoming skeptical that the A's can hang with the Rockies, a team that so far has scored the most runs in the PBL and has the best xFIP in the league.
Kansas City: The Royals are playing good ball (+0.81 WR) but it's not translating into wins. Their mediocre 25-25 record, coupled with Texas' resurgence, dropped their playoff odds by 6.7%. They should still be considered a very likely playoff team, but at some point their performance is going to need to produce wins.
Houston: The poor Astros just can't seem to catch a break. They're playing badly and went 11-16, falling to the bottom of the division. They still have a talented roster, but one more month like this will sink their chances at the playoffs completely. Tampa Bay playing decent ball is not doing them any favors.
NL East | Record | Month | WAR Rating | Playoff% | Bye% | EstWins | WRdlta | PO Delta | EW Delta |
NYN | 26-25 | 15-9 | +0.39 | 55.7% | 0.6% | 85.4 | +0.55 | +2.2% | +2.0 |
PHI | 30-21 | 16-10 | -0.36 | 43.7% | 0.2% | 83.8 | +0.27 | +15.5% | +3.5 |
PIT | 25-26 | 14-12 | +0.08 | 31.7% | 82.0 | +0.47 | +2.6% | +1.3 | |
MON | 22-29 | 12-14 | -0.09 | 3.6% | 75.5 | +0.01 | -4.8% | -0.3 | |
NL Central | |||||||||
CIN | 30-21 | 18-8 | +1.36 | 97.1% | 16.5% | 94.4 | +1.22 | +21.9% | +5.8 |
STL | 28-23 | 11-15 | +1.18 | 96.2% | 12.4% | 93.9 | -0.97 | -3.3% | -6.0 |
MIL | 24-28 | 11-15 | -0.67 | 16.3% | 80.0 | +0.15 | -23.8% | -4.0 | |
CHN | 24-27 | 8-18 | -1.56 | 0.2% | 69.2 | -1.45 | -4.6% | -5.8 | |
NL West | |||||||||
SDN | 34-16 | 17-8 | +1.41 | 100.0% | 81.6% | 102.9 | 0.00 | +0.2% | +1.7 |
LAN | 26-24 | 13-12 | -0.06 | 36.0% | 0.1% | 83.7 | -0.30 | -13.7% | -1.1 |
ARI | 26-25 | 14-12 | +0.04 | 18.7% | 80.6 | +0.33 | +8.1% | +2.2 | |
SFN | 24-27 | 15-11 | -0.02 | 0.7% | 72.4 | +0.16 | +0.5% | +6.0 | |
AL South | |||||||||
WAS | 35-17 | 17-10 | +1.64 | 100.0% | 80.0% | 102.6 | -0.11 | 0.0% | +0.4 |
ATL | 25-26 | 13-14 | -1.09 | 0.5% | 72.2 | +0.22 | -0.5% | +1.4 | |
CAR | 18-32 | 12-15 | -1.47 | 63.8 | +0.20 | +0.6 | |||
MIA | 14-38 | 6-21 | -1.47 | 55.5 | -0.78 | -5.1 |
Playoff Picture:
Byes: San Diego (100% playoff), Washington (100%)
Division Winners: Cincinnati (97.1%), New York (55.7%)
Wild Cards: St. Louis (96.2%), Philadelphia (43.7%)
Chance that the above 6 all make the playoffs: 22.7%
It's interesting; four of the playoff spots are pretty much locked up, but the winner of the NL East and the second Wild Card team are very much up in the air.
Risers:
New York: The Mets may not be feeling very good right now, but it was a good month for them. They went 15-9 and bumped their play by a good margin. They are now playing like the best team in the division, even if their record does not match that. The challenge is clear; find a way to make up four games against a Phillies team that appears to be wildly overperforming.
Cincinnati: The Reds had the biggest WR jump of the month, exploding up by +1.22. Matching that surge in performance they went 18-8 and took advantage of the faltering Cardinals. At the intersection of St. Louis and every other 2nd wild-card candidate struggling, Cincinnati's May has put them in strong position.
Philadelphia: It's hard to read Philly. They've gone 30-21 (same record as the Reds) for the first third of the season, but their WAR of -0.36 is low. Despite a commanding four game lead (even with 110+ games left four games matter) the sheet is worried, as their wins don't seem to be matched by actual player performance. Overall you'd take the wins, but the Phillies haven't been playing like a playoff team, even if they've been winning like one.
Arizona: It may feel like a disappointment after last year's run, but the Diamondbacks are doing alright. They went 14-12, have an above average WR (if not by a lot) and are improving when a lot of teams are struggling.
San Francisco: The Giants are wildly exceeding expectations, going 15-11 and putting up an average WR. I know that doesn't sound exciting, but for a team as stripped as this, an average WR is quite an achievement. Their chances at the playoffs are remote, but going forward they may not be as short from competition as we'd have guessed.
Fallers:
St. Louis: The Cardinals looked unbeatable in April. Then, suddenly, they had a terrible May, going 11-15 and playing like crap (well, honestly they played about average, but it was a big fall from a +2 WR). In most divisions this wouldn't be such a problem, except the Reds are playing out of their mind. Looks like this will be a serious tussle for the division.
Chicago: The Cubs exciting April was followed by a brutal May, going 8-18 and playing the worst ball in the PBL.
Miami: The Marlins underperformed in April, playing decent ball but still having a terrible record. In May they struck a blow for consistency, both going 6-21 and playing like crap. If there can be said to be an upside it's that the #1 overall pick is likely theirs; they're projected to be 7.8 wins behind the next worst team.
Milwaukee: The Brewers are consistently disappointing their high preseason forecast. They have a poor record and a poor WR; the only thing keeping them in the playoff hunt is that everyone else in their bracket is struggling too. The sheet still thinks they're above average, but it sure would be nice if they could prove it.
Los Angeles: The Dodgers went 13-12 but May did not go well for them. Their level of play regressed to below average, Cincinnati put the first Wild Card out of reach, Arizona's moving forward and Philly keeps winning. The Dodgers are doing alright, but a lot of factors have come together to endanger their playoff chances.
5/02/50
AL East | Record | WAR Rating | Playoff% | Bye% | Est.Wins | Playoff Delta | EW Delta |
NYA | 15-10 | +1.12 | 95.0% | 22.0% | 91.0 | +9.6% | +3.3 |
TOR | 10-15 | -0.68 | 4.6% | 0.2% | 75.7 | -13.8% | -3.3 |
BAL | 15-10 | +0.06 | 2.7% | 0.1% | 75.0 | +1.3% | +5.4 |
BOS | 11-14 | -0.55 | 0.1% | 68.1 | -0.2% | +0.7 | |
AL Central | |||||||
CHA | 17-8 | +0.94 | 94.8% | 32.3% | 92.6 | +29.4% | +4.7 |
CLE | 8-17 | -1.10 | 10.0% | 0.4% | 78.9 | -42.7% | -7.8 |
MIN | 15-10 | +0.08 | 3.5% | 75.8 | +2.7% | +5.2 | |
DET | 9-17 | -0.76 | 63.6 | -1.8 | |||
AL West | |||||||
COL | 16-9 | +2.19 | 96.4% | 43.4% | 97.5 | +15.4% | +4.9 |
OAK | 14-11 | +1.49 | 97.2% | 42.3% | 97.7 | +2.8% | +0.3 |
SEA | 11-14 | -0.83 | 1.1% | 72.1 | +0.1% | -1.2 | |
LAA | 9-16 | -1.10 | 65.2 | -2.6 | |||
AL South | |||||||
KCA | 12-11 | +0.59 | 86.9% | 32.4% | 92.6 | +5.1% | -0.4 |
TEX | 12-13 | -0.43 | 70.7% | 13.8% | 89.4 | -13.6% | -4.1 |
HOU | 12-12 | -0.70 | 26.5% | 2.9% | 83.8 | -9.1% | -2.4 |
TBA | 13-12 | +0.35 | 10.1% | 0.7% | 79.9 | +6.7% | +2.0 |
Playoff Picture:
Bye Teams: Colorado, Kansas City
Division Winners: Chicago, New York
Wild Cards: Oakland, Texas
Next Out: Houston, Tampa Bay, Cleveland
Risers:
New York: The Yankees opened with a strong month. Combined with Toronto's struggles the Yankees' position has much improved.
Baltimore: The Orioles are a surprise team of the month, going 15-10 and bumping their EW by 5+. They haven't done anything yet, but they are in theoretical striking position if they get really hot.
Chicago: The White Sox won coming and going; combine a 17-8 month with solid WAR (almost +1 WR), then add Cleveland's brutal collapse and the White Sox have nearly sewed the division by May.
Minnesota: The Twins had a great 15-10 month, but mediocre WAR (both to-date and forecast) minimize how seriously their record is being taken.
Colorado: Combine a 16-9 record with a WR above 2 and you have the the second biggest gainer in the AL. That Colorado is so well regarded by the sheet even though Oakland's played well is indicative of just how good Colorado's been. The AL West now has the two most probable bye teams. Just like old times.
Kansas City: An incongruous result, the Royals EW dropped but playoff odds went up. Basically, the sheet is slightly underwhelmed by the Royals' record and WR so far, but the Royals get a bump to their playoff odds by virtue of Texas' struggles.
Tampa Bay: The Rays have been solid in a month where the rest of the AL South has struggled. They're still considered the 4th team in the division, but they have a better chance of making the playoffs than all the 3rd place teams in the AL (and two of the 2nd place teams). If they keep it up this division could be a bloodbath. Again.
The AL West: Between Colorado and Oakland both playing very well and Seattle and Los Angeles being only poor, the AL West may actually be the best, if wildly unbalanced, division in the league.
Fallers:
The AL South: This is the second year where I've forecast the AL South being the best division in the AL, and so far it's not looking good. Again. Texas and Houston are both struggling and Kansas City hasn't been quite as good as expected.
Toronto: Toronto is on that list of teams that always get forecast high and always seem to disappoint. They're certainly able to turn this around but it isn't looking great.
Cleveland: Everyone knew that Cleveland wouldn't be like last year's pennant-winning squad, what with their trades, but this is a shock. An EW Delta of -7.8 is almost unprecedented; the Indians have sucked in every way it's possible to do so. Is this a reasonable indicator of their real ability? Of course not. But they're 9 games out of first a mere 25 games into the season. Their loss (or rather, 17 losses) is Colorado/Oakland/Texas' gain.
Texas: The Rangers are fortunate that they're only 12-13, that the Indians have imploded and that Kansas City is only 12-11. That they're only one game back even with a negative WR is very fortunate, and their fall in playoff odds was modest. They can't afford to struggle in a division with so many potential playoff teams. That said, Texas is a deep and talented squad; they turned it around last year and I expect them to do so again.
Houston: Pretty much everything I just said about Texas I could say about the Astros. They've played terribly but have lucked out with a 500 record. They really need Texas to keep struggling to keep the window open.
NL East | Record | WAR Rating | Playoff% | Bye% | Est.Wins | Playoff Delta | EW Delta |
NYN | 11-14 | -0.16 | 53.5% | 0.3% | 83.4 | -2.0% | -2.9 |
PIT | 11-14 | -0.39 | 29.1% | 80.7 | -9.7% | -2.8 | |
PHI | 14-11 | -0.63 | 28.2% | 0.2% | 80.3 | +12.1% | +0.8 |
MON | 10-15 | -0.10 | 8.4% | 75.8 | -0.9% | -1.6 | |
NL Central | |||||||
STL | 17-8 | +2.15 | 99.5% | 52.6% | 100.4 | +5.3% | +5.2 |
CIN | 12-13 | +0.14 | 75.2% | 2.8% | 88.6 | -5.1% | -2.4 |
MIL | 13-13 | -0.82 | 40.1% | 0.4% | 84.0 | -15.1% | -3.2 |
CHN | 16-9 | -0.11 | 4.8% | 75.0 | +4.6% | +6.2 | |
NL West | |||||||
SDN | 17-8 | +1.41 | 99.8% | 65.7% | 101.2 | +2.4% | +3.3 |
LAN | 13-12 | +0.24 | 49.7% | 0.2% | 84.8 | +7.0% | -0.2 |
ARI | 12-13 | -0.29 | 10.6% | 78.4 | +1.3% | -0.7 | |
SFN | 9-16 | -0.18 | 0.2% | 66.4 | +0.2% | -0.6 | |
NL South | |||||||
WAS | 18-7 | +1.75 | 100.0% | 70.3% | 102.2 | +0.2% | +5.2 |
ATL | 12-12 | -1.31 | 1.0% | 70.8 | +0.4% | +0.1 | |
CAR | 6-17 | -1.67 | 63.2 | -0.5% | -5.6 | ||
MIA | 8-17 | -0.69 | 60.6 | -1.1 |
Playoff Picture:
Bye Teams: Washington, San Diego
Division Winners: St. Louis, New York
Wild Cards: Cincinnati, Los Angeles
Next Out: Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Arizona
Risers:
Philadelphia: The Phillies had a somewhat mixed month; on one hand they had a good record (14-11) and lead the division, but on the other hand their WR is quite low (-0.63), the lowest in the division. Due to their low WR, their expected record didn't go up much, but you can't shake a stick at having a three game lead in your division.
St. Louis: The NL is rapidly stratifying, with the Cards as the third dominant team. Their WR is second in the league, they're 17-8 and look as though they'll run away with the division, now forecast to win almost twelve more games than the Reds.
Chicago: Don't look now, but the Cubs are both 16-9 and boasting a near-average WAR. The forecast is obviously still quite skeptical, but their EW is 75 right now; for the Cubs 75 wins would be a great success.
San Diego: San Diego is playing as well as expected but winning more than expected (17-8 -> 110 wins which is quite high). The question for them (and Washington) isn't about them winning their division, it's about fighting for the bye.
Los Angeles: A modestly underwhelming month still saw their playoff odds go up. Combine Milwaukee's struggles with those of the entire NL East and suddenly the Dodgers don't have much competition for the second wild-card slot.
Washington: It's all about the three-team race for the bye. Right now those three teams are all projected above 100 wins for the year.
Fallers:
New York: Their EW dropped (11-14 is no good) but their playoff odds barely budged. This is because Pittsburgh struggled even more than the Mets, and despite Philly's early success the Mets are still the smart money to win the division.
Pittsburgh: The Pirates were below average both in WAR and record. Their playoff odds are still respectable because the NL East looks like such a cluster right now, with three teams forecast within three wins of each other.
Cincinnati: While the start has been slow, the Reds are still considered to have that first Wild Card spot on lockdown. The only probable competition is Milwaukee and Los Angeles and the Reds have a more talented roster than both.
Milwaukee: Their 13-13 record isn't bad (and certainly a step up from last year) but their WR so far has been horrendous. They cannot hope to compete for a playoff spot and play so badly.